your money in indian country webinar series
TRANSCRIPT
1
Monday, August 9th, 2021
Summer Market Update
Your Money in Indian Country Webinar Series
Your Hosts
Shawn Spruce
2
Autumn Romero
The U.S. was in a recession until 2021.
❑ Yes
❑ No
❑ Maybe
3
Which of the following companies has lost money on its COVID-19 vaccine?
❑ Pfizer
❑ Moderna
❑ AstraZeneca
❑ None of the above
4
Which of the following fintech companies is currently trading below its IPO price.
❑ Coinbase
❑ Robinhood
❑ Affirm
❑ All of the above
5
Which of the following stocks is struggling this year?
❑ Marathon Oil
❑ L Brands
❑ Devon Energy
❑ Ford Motor Company
❑ Netflix
6
Today’s Topics
• Market Factoids
• Good News/Bad News
• Trends
• Key Takeaways
U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Consumer Spending
Business Investment
Government Spending
Net Exports
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductAnnual Growth
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
2021 Estimated
11 months
16 months
11 months
16 months
8 months
8 months
18 months
2 months
1969-1970
1970-1975
1980
1981-1982
1990-1991
2001
2007-2009
2020
Recessions1969 to Present
Source: Wall Street Journal
S&P 500Year to Date
Economic recovery begins in May
Po
ints
U.S. surpasses 500,000 deaths February 13th
Source: MarketWatch
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
1/4/2021 2/4/2021 3/4/2021 4/4/2021 5/4/2021 6/4/2021 7/4/2021
1 year anniversary since WHO declared COVID-19
a global pandemic March 11th
S&P 500 Sector PerformanceYTD as of July 30th, 2021
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%H
ealt
h C
are
Co
nsu
me
r D
iscr
etio
nar
y
Co
nsu
me
r St
aple
s
Ene
rgy
Fin
anci
als
Ind
ust
rial
s
Info
rmat
ion
Tec
hn
olo
gy
Mat
eri
als
Re
al E
stat
e
Co
mm
un
icat
ion
Ser
vice
s
Uti
litie
s
Source: Fidelity
FAANG StocksYTD as of July 30th, 2021
Source: Yahoo Finance
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix Alphabet
Top Five S&P 500 StocksYTD as of August 6th, 2021
Source: Slickcharts
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
GeneracHoldings
Fortinet Gartner Nucor Corp Moderna
10 Year Treasury YieldYear to Date
Source: Yahoo Finance
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
1/4/2021 2/4/2021 3/4/2021 4/4/2021 5/4/2021 6/4/2021 7/4/2021 8/4/2021
Higher Bond Prices = Lower Yields
Lower Bond Prices = Higher Yields
Yield = Coupon/Price
Monthly InflationHighest Annualized Rate
Source: usinflationcalculator.com
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
12 Month Inflation RateAs of June 2021
Source: usinflationcalculator.com
5.4%
2.4%
24.5%
4.5%
Inflation - all items
Food
Energy
Core Inflation - all items less food and energy
Bad News
• Going through the Big D
• Stimulus benefits are expiring
• Rising inflation
• Stimmy money has created supply and demand mismatch
• Goods vs services
• The U.S. has borrowed heavily to fund stimulus
Good News
• Economic growth is back
• Higher employment
• Increased savings
• Less consumer debt
• Pandemic adapted
Kinda Sorta
• Housing demand
• Infrastructure and taxes
• Low interest rates
Winners
• Services
• Restaurants
• Bars
• Clothing/accessories
• Energy
• Real Estate
• Communications
Losers
• Some durable goods
• Furniture
• Building supplies
• Sporting goods
• Consumer staples
• Utilities
Key Takeaways
• Economy is strong but uncertain
• Services vs Goods
• The virus still poses huge risks here and abroad
• Less stimulus
• Interest rates
• Businesses have lots of credit
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2020
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2020
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More Resources from FINRA
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2020
Investing for the Future
• Virtual Train-the-Trainer Workshop
• August 23rd-25th, 2021
• 10 am to 2 pm (MST) Daily
• Register at firstnations.org
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Autumn Romero Shawn Spruce
(303) 774-7836 (505) 917-0709
[email protected] [email protected] nativesonabudget.com
SHAWN SPRUCETRAINING AND CONSULTING