ypla strategic analysis: south west summary
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YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Strategic AnalysisSouth West Summary
[email protected] Analysis Manager
YPLA Western Territory
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
This presentation
1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning
South West 16-18 Population Projections 000s
175.0
180.0
185.0
190.0
195.0
200.0
205.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2008-2017SW 11% decline 16-18s
Eng 13% decline 16-18s
Plymouth 19% decline
N.Soms 1% decline
over 6,700 fewer2011-2015
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Major industries in the South West
50% of all jobs
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000
Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
% of 16-18s in jobs without training
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Mar-07
Aug-07
Jan-0
8Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May
-11
Eng
SW
Devon
Soms
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Resident 16-19s leaving JSA to go into learning
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350Au
g-99
Feb-
00
Aug-
00
Feb-
01
Aug-
01
Feb-
02
Aug-
02
Feb-
03
Aug-
03
Feb-
04
Aug-
04
Feb-
05
Aug-
05
Feb-
06
Aug-
06
Feb-
07
Aug-
07
Feb-
08
Aug-
08
Feb-
09
Aug-
09
Feb-
10
Aug-
10
Feb-
11
Aug-
11
HSBC USsub-primewarning
LehmanBros.
bankrupt
UKeconomy
inrecession
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
This presentation
1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
% of SW 16-18s NEET
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Sep-
07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep-
08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09
Sep-
09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
England
SouthWestB&NES
Bristol
UK economyin recession
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Participation by SW 16-17s
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Increasing presence of Academies –SW 16-18s
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2007/08S04
2008/09S04
2009/10S04
2010/11S02
2011/12allocated
Maintained
Academies
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
16-18 participation and population trends andprojections
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Measured Projected
Participation
Population
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Annual 16-18 participation change required tohit 2013 RPA target
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
population
participation
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning
SW learners by level
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
EntryLevel
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 OtherLevel
EntryLevel
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 OtherLevel
FE School Sixth Forms
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
nearly half ofFE learnersare @ L3
78% of SSFlearners @ L3- static
10%reduction
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
This presentation
1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
16-18 travel to learn – major flows
38%500Bournemouth &Poole
Poole
38%500Bournemouth &Poole
DorsetGreaterBournemouth
51%500CirencesterSwindon
no trend300Swindon College
-8%300New CollegeWiltshireSwindon
13%900South DevonDevonGreater Devon
23%400BrockenhurstDorset
no trend500BrockenhurstBournemouth
21%200Totton
19%400SparsholtWiltsinto Hants
154%*500St. Brendan's
no trend700City of Bristol[Bristol]
South Gloucs
-13%800Filton
no trend300City of Bristol[S.Gloucs]
BristolGreater Bristol
3 year trendNumberLearnsLives
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Number of 16-25s at ISPs, 2005/06 = 100%
88 @£46keach
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
2005/2
006
2006/
2007
2007
/2008
2008
/200
9
2009
/201
0
2010/
2011
Cornwall
Dorset
South West
England
c.400 @£44k each
c.600 @£54k each
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning
SW 16-18 SSF / Acad learning aims
35% ‘STEM’ -steady
Science &Maths =nearly 30% ofall SW SSFAims
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning
SW 16-18 FE learning aims by subject
16% ‘STEM’– risingslightly
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
This presentation
1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Level 2 at 19
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10
Pe
rcen
tag
eA
ttai
nm
ent
Bristol B&NES SOUTH WEST ENGLAND
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
Level 3 at 19
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10
Per
cen
tage
Att
ainm
ent
B&NES Swindon SOUTH WEST ENGLAND
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning
FSM gap at 19, levels 2 & 3
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Corn
wal
l
Glou
cest
ersh
ire
Sout
hW
est
Engl
and
Corn
wal
l
Glou
cest
ersh
ire
Sout
hW
est
Engl
and
Level 2 Level 3
19 in 2004/05
19 in 2005/06
19 in 2006/07
19 in 2007/08
19 in 2008/09
19 in 2009/10
YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning
Attainment by 19 of learners attending SWschools at 15
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Englishand/ormaths
NeitherEnglish
nor maths
Englishand maths
English ormaths orneither
No level 2 at 16 Level 2 at 16
No level 3 attained
Level 3 attained