yunshi wang, co-director, china-u.s. zev policy lab and ...€¦ · • drc-development and...
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Yunshi Wang, Co-director, China-U.S. ZEV Policy Lab and Director, China Center for Energy and Transportation
U.S.-ChinaPEVDevelopment
Source:USnumbersfromHybridcars.com;ChinesenumbersfromCAAM
MoCvaConsofChina’sEVPolicy
• Na;onalSecurity-EnergyDependency– TheStraitofMalaccadilemma– HeavydependencyonImportedOil66%-70%– Resourcesimbalance(lot’sofcoal,notmuchoil,andliOleNG)
• IndustrialPolicy– Leapfrog(JVaccountsfor4/5and7/10topsellersinChinain2016)– RenewableIndustryExpansion– RegionalGDP(Shanghai,Beijing,Shenzhen,andHefei)
• EnvironmentalPolicy– Smog(PM2.5)inmegaci;es– Mee;ngChina’sinterna;onalcommitmenttoClimatechanges
PlayersinChina’sEVSector
• MoST– MinisterWANGang– 863R&DProgram– TencityandOneThousandProgram
• MIIT,thedesignatedregulatoroftheautoindustry– Cer;fica;onandList– CAFCandZEVPolicy
• NDRC– Permittoproduc;onandexpansion– SpecialListforNEVproducers– CarbonTax
• MoF– Subsidies– Taxes
• EV100• DRC-DevelopmentandResearchCenteroftheStateCouncil,anadvisorybodytothePremier• CATARC–tes;ngandcer;fica;on,providesstaffandadvicetoNDRC,MIIT,MOF• NDRC-ERI• CAAM(ChinaAssocia;onofAutomo;veManufacturers)workscloselywithMIIT• SAE-China• StateGridandSouthernStateGrid• TsinghuaUniversity
– ProfessorOuyangMinggao’sGroup
WhydidtheChinesePEVMarkettakeoffin2014-2016?
• MonetaryIncen;ves
• Non-monetaryIncen;ves
• Innova;vebusinessmodelsandothers
• Issuestobeaddressed
WhydidtheChinesePEVMarkettakeoffin2014-2016?1.MonetaryIncenCves
• Hugesubsidies:USD8.4Billionin2015inobliga;onbytheCentralGov.
vsUSD865millionorlessbyWashington(closeto10;mes)
– Localgovernments’subsidiescouldmatchordoublethat
amountasshowninShanghaiandBeijing.
– 84percentoftheUSD8billionareforcommercialvehiclesin
2015
• Exemp;onofthe10%salestax
• Subsidiestoinstallhomechargers
WhydidtheChinesePEVMarkettakeoffin2014-2016?2.Non-monetaryIncenCve--licenseplateprivilegeinBeijingandShanghai
• Leadingci;es:Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Hangzhou,etc
• Theseareallci;eswithlicenserestric;onpolicies;BeijingandHangzhou,Alsodrivingrestric;onpolicies
• Beijing:loOery;BEV• Shanghai:auc;on;BEVandPHEV• Shenzhen:loOeryandauc;on;BEVandPHEV• Hangzhou:loOeryandauc;on;BEVandPHEV
DirectandImpliedSubsidiesinShanghaiButwhatisthevalueofalicenseplateinBeijing(0.15%)?
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4.Issuestobeaddressed• Some;mesconflic;nggoals(HEVsvsPEVs)
• Leapfrogginginterna;onalOEMs• Energysecurity• Cleanairinmega-ci;es
• Regionalprotec;onism(Beijing,Shenzhen-Yuan50millionentrancefee,andotherci;es’policies)• Demandlocalkeycomponents,localproduc;on,quidproquo,10year/150km
guarantee.• Lackofinputsfromconsumers:
• PHEVsorBEVs?• HowbigisthebaOeryneededforBeijing/Shenzhen/Shanghai:31kmand50%
travellessthan10kmeveryday?• Transi;onfromtheVisibleHandtotheInvisibleHand(CAZEVPolicy)
• Overinvestmentandover-subsidies?• Wrong;mingandwrongtechnologies?
• DependencyonandChea;ngsofSubsidiesandQualityConcerns(seenextslide)
SubsidyFraudData
• OnePassengerEVmanufacturewaspenalizedbyMOF—Lifan_2395
• FiveCommercialEVmanufactureswerepenalizedbyMOF—Jimuxi_1131;JinlongLianhe_1683;Shaolin_252;Wuzhoulong_154;QiruiWanda_327
• 5,942EVs(1.8%);1,124millionYuan($167.7m)(3.4%);inearly2017,thegovernmentaddedanother7companieswith4,468EVs;alltogether,about3.2%PEVsareinques;on.
• Upto76,374EVs(22.4%);9,712millionYuan($1,388m)(27.8%),basedonunofficialbutwidelycirculatedreport.
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June2017:GovernorBrownPromotesZEVCooperaConwithChina
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2016-2020NewEnergyVehicleCreditCalculaConStandards(MIITNewProposal)
PassengerVehicleTypesElectricRangeR(DrivingCycle,km)
0.012*R+0.8R=>350 R=>50
BEVs 5 /
PHEVs(includingREEVs) / / / 2
FCEVs / / 4 5 /
2018-2020NEVCreditsRequirements:8%、10%、12%.
F"-(,#P-4-$E-'(T-3V--$(3"-(\/5(%$5(H-V(H*+(!4-5#3()0/#E1()40.0'%/'(F"-(D0428/%(E"%$M-'(D402('3-.'(30(/#$-4(V#3"(204-(E4-5#3'(D04(T*+'(
F<2! :'[!6%'21=-!
ComparisonBetweenZEVandProposedNEVCreditPolicies:Similar?
California MIIT(Proposal）RegulatoryTerritory 10states,about28%oftheU.S.market Na;onwideOEMsRegulated Sales>20,000;and4,500and≤20,000 Produc;on/Imports>50,000
2018-2020 Minimum Mandate in Credits
4.5%,7%,9.5%.............22%(2015) 8%,10%,12%
IfanOEMwith100,000PassengerCarsineithersalesorproducConin2018
i.e.NissanLeaf(R=UAER160Miles=2)Willneed2250vehicles
ABEVwith256km=3.87willneed2066vehicles
Targeteachyear SalesVolume Produc;onVolumeTheminimumandmaximumlimitsforPHEVs(blendedvsPHEVs)
10miles=0.4/0.6credits.50milesPHEVs=0.8ornon-blended=1.0
50km=2Credits
LifeofCredits Permanent ValidonlyinthesameyearExchangeablebetweenCAFÉ/CAFC No；butthesamePEVinCAFÉcountsas
zero/lowenergyconsump;onYes
Minimum ZEV Requirement (BEVs and FCEVs)
Yes, 2% (2018); 4% (2019); 6% (2020) No. PHEVs alone can meet the NEV Requirements
Fine OneZEVVehicleinDeficit:$37,500 No.(Nolawsupportsthis)AdministraCvePenalty IfthereisaproofthatOEMsdidn’ttryto
meettheZEVrequirement,thentheywillbesuspendedfromsellingvehiclesinCalifornia
OEMswillbeforcedtoreducetheproduc;onofhighconsump;onvehicles,atleastthesamenumberoftheNEVcreditsindeficit(1credit=1V)