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2007年9月28日

Vermelding onderdeel organisatie

1WCTR 2007

Revival of the cost benefit analysis for evaluating the city distribution center concept?

Ron van Duin Hans Quak Jesus Munuzuri

Delft University of TechnologyRSM Erasmus UniversityUniversity of Seville

25th International Conference City Logistics 2007

Outline

•• Literature on urban consolidationLiterature on urban consolidation•• Case study Case study ZuidtangentZuidtangent SHASHSHASH•• PotentialPotential effectseffects city city distributiondistribution centercenter•• CDC CDC EffectsEffects –– CBA CBA --•• ExperimentsExperiments•• ConclusionsConclusions


Urban consolidation

•• The key concept is that the volume of freight vehicles The key concept is that the volume of freight vehicles travellingtravelling within urban areas could within urban areas could be reduced through a more efficient utilization of vehicles: be reduced through a more efficient utilization of vehicles: higher load factors and fewer higher load factors and fewer empty tripsempty trips ((CrainicCrainic et al. 2003)et al. 2003)

•• Policy practice still believe in the concept. Cities like The HaPolicy practice still believe in the concept. Cities like The Hague, Rotterdam, Groningen, gue, Rotterdam, Groningen, Utrecht, Amsterdam & Arnhem have recognized and certified city dUtrecht, Amsterdam & Arnhem have recognized and certified city distributorsistributors

•• ConsiderableConsiderable costscosts involvedinvolved withwith the the constructionconstruction and and operationoperation of the of the transhipmentstranshipments(Button & (Button & PearmanPearman, 1981), 1981)

•• City City distributiondistribution centers centers leadlead a a laboriouslaborious lifelife (Van Duin, 1997)(Van Duin, 1997)

•• GVZ GVZ oror freightfreight villagesvillages have been have been popularpopular as as realreal estateestate sourcessources ((KlausKlaus, 2005), 2005)

OurOur mainmain research research questionquestion::

CanCan a city a city distributiondistribution center center bebe sociallysocially beneficialbeneficial fromfrom a a costcost benefit benefit perspectiveperspective??


Case research: Amstelveen, Hoofdorp, Haarlem, Schalkwijk & Schiphol

AmstelveenAmstelveen 179 shops179 shopsHoofddorpHoofddorp 154 shops154 shopsHaarlemHaarlem 566 shops566 shopsSchalkwijkSchalkwijk 160 shops160 shopsSchipholSchiphol 68 shops68 shops

DiepensDiepens & & OkkemaOkkema (2005) showed (2005) showed that freight traffic is possible that freight traffic is possible without losing efficiencies for the without losing efficiencies for the current bus services current bus services


3 alternativesZeroZero--alternativealternative, current policy measures, distribution structures , current policy measures, distribution structures remain remain

Commercial alternativeCommercial alternative, commercial exploitable service based on free , commercial exploitable service based on free market principles within the societal constraints & requirementsmarket principles within the societal constraints & requirements, fair , fair price competitionprice competition

Societal alternativeSocietal alternative, mainly focussed on demands of all stakeholders,, mainly focussed on demands of all stakeholders,Budget neutral, contracting criteria: min. noise, min. emissionsBudget neutral, contracting criteria: min. noise, min. emissions & & min. damage on infrastructuremin. damage on infrastructure


Potential effects

Separation of supply and return flowsTime profit shipper -> CDCBundling opportunities shipper->CDC

Shippers

Flexibility in deliverance of goodsFleet optimization

Carriers

Flexibility of deliveryLonger lead-times supply of goodsStock reduction at site

Entrepreneurs/shopkeepers

Reduction of traffic on main roadsProvince North-Holland

Reduction of city maintenance costsReduction of noise emissionsReduction exhaustQuality improvement of shopping area

Municipalities

Main Effects CDCStakeholder Group

020406080

100120140

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Urban freight in tkm (2006=100)


CDC operations••ProfitProfit

••Price based on average time savings city access roads to Price based on average time savings city access roads to innercityinnercity, 25*55 , 25*55 (driver)+25*75(truck) = 55 (driver)+25*75(truck) = 55 euroeuro, B2B 18.20 euro/m, B2B 18.20 euro/m33, B2C 28.50 euro/m, B2C 28.50 euro/m33

••Average Average StorageStorage priceprice 5.50 euro per m5.50 euro per m3 (commercial 3 (commercial valuesvalues))

••Profit margin 10%Profit margin 10%••CostsCosts

••20000m20000m22, base year 357000 m, base year 357000 m33, 1250 , 1250 gpdgpd=>4000 max =>4000 max gdpgdp, 145 , 145 euroeuro per mper m22 , , connection to access roads pm 600000, maintenance roads 1 millconnection to access roads pm 600000, maintenance roads 1 millionion

••LabourLabour costscosts: : driverdriver++operationsoperations++administrationadministration, 40 , 40 peoplepeople, , growthgrowth 10% 10% leadsleads totolabourlabour increaseincrease 3%, average 3%, average salarysalary, 1600 euro/, 1600 euro/monthmonth

••Truck Truck costscosts: : operationsoperations,,purchasepurchase, , maintenancemaintenance, , fuelfuel, , insuranceinsurance, 173 , 173 movementsmovements/week,/week,1 truck 1 truck deliversdelivers 5.5 5.5 daysdays/week, /week, oneone trip 2 trip 2 hourshours, , insuranceinsurance 0.25 per LU, 0.25 per LU, wayway of of financingfinancing 10% of 10% of totaltotal costscosts

1:51:3Fuel consumption

60005000Maintenance/year

175000100000Purchase

CAT 5CAT 3


Effects on public affairs

••Reduction city maintenance costs: 1% Reduction city maintenance costs: 1% infrastructure maintenance 2 million/yearinfrastructure maintenance 2 million/year

••Emissions reductions: 8 km currently, Emissions reductions: 8 km currently, max 3 km inner city and direct delivery max 3 km inner city and direct delivery max 15 km. 1 kg PMmax 15 km. 1 kg PM1010 300 300 euroeuro, 1 kg , 1 kg NONOXX 12 12 euroeuro

•• NoiseNoise reductionreduction, , exceedingexceeding 65 65 dBAdBA, , propro--memorie memorie costcost

0,050,080,060,030,03PM10

2,473,203,201,741,74NOxClean vehicle(Euro 5)

0,290,470,340,170,17PM10

7,289,459,455,115,11NOxStandard vehicle(Euro 3)

RestTruck and

trailerTruckLight truckVanEmission grammes per km

PreventedPrevented emissionsemissions forfor eacheach yearyear


Effects for commercial stakeholders•• FlexibilityFlexibility of of deliverydelivery

Time window cost saving, 1 extra hour reductions min 2 persons, Time window cost saving, 1 extra hour reductions min 2 persons, 2x18pd 2x18pd = 11232 yearly, too late arrival in a tour (Holguin= 11232 yearly, too late arrival in a tour (Holguin--VerrasVerras, 2007), 2007)

•• Reduction of stock at siteReduction of stock at siteStock space Stock space --> selling space, not specified in CBA> selling space, not specified in CBA

•• Separation of supply and return flowsSeparation of supply and return flowsCurrent trucks return empty, Current trucks return empty, cdccdc assume 25% return flowsassume 25% return flows

•• CostCost reductionreduction byby clustering (clustering (shippersshippers))SC SC beforebefore cdccdc cancan bebe organisedorganised more more efficientlyefficiently, 11%. , 11%. DistributionDistribution

structuresstructures willwill notnot changechange stronglystrongly, 25% , 25% willwill adjustadjust theirtheir chainschains! Overall ! Overall return return willwill bebe 0.11*0.25 = 2.75%0.11*0.25 = 2.75%

•• IncreaseIncrease of of flexibilityflexibility (carriers)(carriers)FleetFleet optimisationoptimisation, , deliverdeliver beforebefore a deadline a deadline insteadinstead timetime--windowwindow, min , min

savingssavings 5% (5% (QuakQuak&Koster, 2007), &Koster, 2007), too late arrival in a tour (Holguintoo late arrival in a tour (Holguin--VerrasVerras, 2007), 2007)


Validation

5.5 % 5.5 % U AU AOperational costsOperational costsOtherOther

nihilnihilU AU AGrowth factorGrowth factor

0.5 %0.5 %C AC ANumber of employeesNumber of employees

0.5 %0.5 %C AC ASalarySalaryPersonnel costPersonnel cost

2.5 %2.5 %U AU ABuilding and InfrastructureBuilding and Infrastructure

NihilNihilC AC AAverage Fuel priceAverage Fuel price

0.12 %0.12 %C AC ACosts vehiclesCosts vehicles

0.16 %0.16 %C AC AInsuranceInsurance

nihilnihilC.V. C.V. Usage CDCUsage CDC

EffectEffectAssumptionAssumptionOperational costsOperational costs

CV = CV = certaincertain valuevalue, CA = , CA = CalulatedCalulated assumptionassumption, , UAUA= = UncertainUncertain assumptionassumption


Experiments (1)

€ 100.000.000,00-

€ 50.000.000,00-

€ 0,00

€ 50.000.000,00

€ 100.000.000,00

€ 150.000.000,00

marketsh

are

5,00%10

,00%15

,00%20,00

%25

,00%

30,00%

35,00

%40

,00%

45,00%50,00%55

,00%

60,00%65,00

%

Total NetPresentValue Commercialvariant incl. profitTotal NetPresentValue Commercialvariant excl. profitTotal NetPresentValue Societalvariant


Experiments (2)

€ 10,00€ 12,00€ 14,00€ 16,00€ 18,00€ 20,00€ 22,00€ 24,00€ 26,00€ 28,00€ 30,00

markets

hare

5,00%

15,00

%25

,00%

35,00

%45

,00%

55,00

%65

,00%

Price per M3 for delivery B2BCommercial variantPrice per M3 for delivery B2BSocietal variant


Conclusions

•• CBA provides insight under what circumstances and conditions theCBA provides insight under what circumstances and conditions the city city distribution concept could operatedistribution concept could operate

•• It takes into account the multiIt takes into account the multi--stakeholder environmentstakeholder environment

•• Commercial success can only be established with a market share >Commercial success can only be established with a market share > 30%30%

•• In case of the In case of the ZuidtangentZuidtangent it has appointed clearly directions for more it has appointed clearly directions for more detailed researchdetailed research

•• EvaluationEvaluation of the city distribution concept of the city distribution concept shouldshould notnot bebe judgedjudged afterafter oneoneyearyear………….the CBA shows .the CBA shows thatthat a a coulecoule of of yearsyears are are neededneeded toto makemake a a goodgoodevaluationevaluation


Thank you……..and don’t forget about the nightlife!!!

Some researchers caught into ‘ACTION’

BE BE THERETHERE!!!!!!

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