© 2010 american institutes for research ® january 6 & 13, 2011 presenters susan bowles...

©2010 American Institutes for Research®

January 6 & 13, 2011

Presenters

Susan Bowles Therriault Lindsay Fryer

National High School Center

Introduction to theVirginia Early Warning System (VEWS)

www.betterhighschools.org


Who We Are

USED-funded Content Centers including the

National High School Center

State Education Agencies (SEAs)

Local Education Agencies (LEAs)

IES

Regional

Labs

16 Regional Comprehensive Centers (RCCs)

USED-funded Special Ed Technical Assistance and

Dissemination Centers

6 Regional Resource Centers (RRCs)

www.betterhighschools.org2

©2010 American Institutes for Research® 3

Objectives

• Provide an overview of the background and research base for early warning systems

• Discuss the evolution of the Virginia early warning system (VEWS) tool

• Introduce the 7-step Virginia early warning system implementation process

• Demonstrate the VEWS tool

• Introduce the Eight Elements of High School Improvement

• Discuss how the VEWS data and implementation process can support Eight Elements of High School Improvement



Sobering Statistics…

• Nearly one-third of all high school students leave the public school system before graduating

• 1.2 million students drop out of high school each year – that’s 12 million over the next decade

• 7,000 students drop out of high school every day

• 15% of the high schools in the U.S. produce 50% of our dropouts – schools Balfanz and Legters call “dropout factories”

Balfanz, R. and Legters, N. (2006, July 12). The graduation rate crisis we know and what can be done about it. Retrieved online from http://web.jhu.edu/CSOS/graduationgap/edweek/Crisis_Commentary.pdf


http://web.jhu.edu/CSOS/graduationgap/edweek/Crisis_Commentary.pdf


Economic Consequences

• A new high school dropout in 2000 had less than a 50% chance of getting a job

• That job earned less than half of what the same job earned 20 years ago

• Lack of education is strongly correlated with welfare dependency and incarceration

• Cutting the number of dropouts in half would reap $45 billion in revenues and decreased costs (Levin et al., 2007)



Virginia Data

Diploma Graduates83.2%

GED Earners

3.7%

Cer-tifi-

cates of

Comple-tion

0.3%

Still En-

rolled2.7%

Dropouts8.1%

Long Term Absences0.4%

Unconfirmed Status1.6%

Diploma Graduates

GED Earners

Certificates of Completion

Still Enrolled

Dropouts

Long Term Absences

Unconfirmed Status

Data taken from the Virginia Department of Education’s State-Level Cohort Report, Four Year Rate for the Class of 2009 See:http://www.doe.virginia.gov/statistics_reports/graduation_completion/cohort_reports/index.shtml


http://www.doe.virginia.gov/statistics_reports/graduation_completion/cohort_reports/index.shtml


Background Information

In February, 2009, the Board of Education strengthened Virginia’s accountability program by:

• Requiring high schools—beginning with the 2011-2012 school year—to meet an annual benchmark for graduation

• Revising Virginia’s accreditation standards to create a graduation and completion index for high schools

7 www.betterhighschools.org


Early Warning Systems

Early warning systems (EWS) rely on readily available data housed at the school to:

– Predict which students are at-risk for dropping out of high school

– Target resources to support off-track students while they are still in school, before they drop out

– Examine patterns and identify school climate issues



9th Grade is a Critical Year

• Ninth grade is a “make or break year”

– More students fail 9th grade than any other high school grade

– A disproportionate number of students who are held back in 9th grade subsequently drop out

• Monitoring students’ progress throughout 9th grade—and even during the first semester—provides powerful indicators that can predict whether students will complete high school:

– Engagement

– Course performance

– Chicago’s “On-Track” Indicator (CCSR End-of-Year)



Key Indicators

Engagement

• Attendance/absenteeism

Course Performance

• Course grades

• Number of credits earned

CCSR End-of-Year Indicator

• Core course performance & accumulated credits


Research from several U.S. school districts provides a strong foundation for defining 9th grade warning signs that students might drop out, but local adaptation is key.


“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: Attendance


0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%87%

63%

41%

21%

9%5% 2% 1% 0%

Four-Year Graduation Rates for CPS Students Entering High School in 2001, by 9th Grade Absences (Allensworth & Easton, 2007)

Days Absent Per Semester (Course Cutting Counted as Partial Days)

Perc

ent G

radu

ated

in F

our Y

ears


“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: Course Failures


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 More than 8

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

85%

70%

55%

42%33%

25%

13% 11%7%

2%

Four-Year Graduation Rates for CPS Students Entering High School in 2001, by Freshman Course Failures (Allensworth & Easton, 2007)

Semester Course Failures

Perc

ent G

radu

ated

in F

our Y

ears


“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: GPA


0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5+0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1%6%

28%

53%

72%

86%93%

97%

Four-Year Graduation Rates for CPS Students Entering High School in 2001, by Freshman GPA (Allensworth & Easton, 2007)

Freshman GPA

Perc

ent G

radu

ated

in F

our Y

ears


Chicago’s “On-track” Indicator

Students are “on-track” if they:

1. have not failed more than one semester long core course, AND

2. have accumulated enough credits for promotion to the 10th grade.


Number of Semesters with Fs in Core

Courses

# of Credits Accumulated Freshman Year

Less than 5 5 or more

2 or more courses Off-track Off-track

0 or 1 courses Off-track On-track


CCSR End of Year Indicator


Source: Allensworth & Easton (2005)


“High Yield” 9th Grade Indicators

Indicators Benchmark (flagged)

Absenteeism Missing 10% or more of instructional time

Course failures One or more failed courses

Grade point average

2.0 or lower (on a 4-point scale)

CCSREnd-of-Year Indicator

Fail two or more semester core courses, or accumulate fewer credits than the number required for promotion to the 10th grade


©2010 American Institutes for Research® www.betterhighschools.org

Evolution of the VEWS Tool

17


VEWS Pilot Team

A team of school divisions, education organizations, and VDOE consultants assisted the VDOE with the pilot of the VEWS Tool

– School divisions: Franklin City, Lee County, Richmond City, and Pulaski County

– Organizations: Appalachia Regional Comprehensive Center and the National High School Center

– Validation of the Virginia Pre-High School Index

– Development of an implementation guide based on the pilot divisions’ experience

– Refinement of the VEWS Tool based on pilot divisions’ feedback and VDOE suggestions



VEWS Tool Features

Based on this work over the past two years, the National

High School Center in collaboration with ARCC and VDOE

conceptualized the current VEWS Tool. This version allows

users to:

– Import data

– Accommodate local contextual factors for high schools

(e.g., semesters vs. trimesters vs. quarters)

– Align with the Virginia pre-high school index

– Modify the benchmarks/thresholds based on analysis of

longitudinal data (i.e., indicator validation)

– Integrate behavioral indicators (referrals and suspensions)



VEWS Tool Features

Features, continued:

– House an inventory of dropout prevention interventions

– Assign students to intervention programs and monitor student response and progress in the interventions over the course of the school year

– Create pre-set school-level summary reports, detailed student-level reports, and individual student reports

– Create customized student-level reports



Risk Indicators in the VEWS Tool


Indicator Time Frame Benchmark (red flag)

Pre-High School Before school begins Virginia DOE validated pre-high school index

Attendance First 20 or 30 days, per grading period, end of year (annual)

Missed 10% or more of instructional time

Course failures Per grading period, end of year (annual)

Failed one or more semester courses (any subject)

Grade point average Per grading period, end of year (annual)

Earned 2.0 or lower (on a 4-point scale)

CCSR “on track” indicator End of year (annual) Failed two or more semester core courses, or accumulated fewer credits than the number required for promotion to the next grade

Referrals and suspensions Per grading period, end of year (annual)

Locally validated

©2010 American Institutes for Research® 22 www.betterhighschools.org

7-Step VEWS Implementation Process

STEP 1Establish roles

and responsibilities

STEP 2Use the EWS Tool

STEP 3Review the EWS

data

STEP 4Interpret the EWS

data

STEP 5Assign and

provide interventions

STEP 6Monitor students

STEP 7Evaluate and

refine the EWS process


Step One: Establish Roles and Responsibilities

• VEWS teams need to include individuals who have:

– Authority to make decisions

– Knowledge of diverse students

– Expertise to manage and analyze data

• VEWS team are required to:

– Meet regularly

– Communicate EWS/dropout prevention issues to

groups/individuals outside of the team

– Solicit feedback from stakeholders (leaders, staff,

students, parents)

– Monitor students’ progress23 www.betterhighschools.org


Step Two:Use the VEWS Tool

• In order to be used as an effective tool to support VEWS team work:

– Data must be regularly entered/imported throughout the school year

– At least one individual should be responsible for ensuring the VEWS tool is loaded with the latest data

– VEWS Team members must be trained to understand the use of the tool

– Reports must be used to make decisions about students

– Students must be assigned to interventions and progress monitored



Step Three: Review VEWS Data

• VEWS data are reviewed and monitored to identify students at risk for dropping out and to understand patterns in student engagement and academic performance

• Questions to ask about VEWS data:

– Student-level patterns: What do your data tell you about individual students who are at-risk?

– School-level patterns: What do your data tell you about how the school is doing?

• Are students who were flagged from the beginning remaining “off-track” through the year?

• Are students who were flagged at one reporting period back “on-track” at the next?



Step Four: Interpret VEWS Data

• The VEWS team must look BEYOND the indicators and dig deeper into reasons for student disengagement with school and academic failure

– Indicators are just observable symptoms, not root causes

– It is important to examine additional data from a variety of sources not included in the tool (e.g., talking to classroom teachers, parents, individual students, other adults in the school)

• Looking at data beyond those in the VEWS Tool can help identify individual and common needs among groups of students and raise new questions for understanding students’ reasons for being off-track for graduation



Step Four: Interpret VEWS Data (cont.)

• Understanding characteristics of students at-risk of dropout is important because:

– Decisions to persist or drop out are affected by multiple contextual factors - family, school, neighborhood, peers

– Personal and school factors contribute to success or failure during the freshman year

– Attendance and course performance problems are distinct indicators in the VEWS but are highly interrelated, and both can signal disengagement

– Student background characteristics are less important in explaining failures than behaviors in high school



Step Five:Assign and Provide Interventions

• The VEWS team matches individual students to specific interventions after having gathered information about:

– Potential root causes for individual flagged students

– The available dropout prevention and academic and behavioral support programs in the school, district, and community

• A tiered approach can be used to match students to interventions based on their individual needs



Tiered Approach toDropout Prevention

Tier Three Individualized

Tier Two

Targeted

Tier One

Universal



New Hampshire's Model


Examples: Positive Behavioral Supports (PBS) model and Universal Leadership Team

including a diverse representation of “opinion-leaders”

Examples: Intervention Team of specialists and administrators will

focus on students who exhibit challenging behaviors and who are

at risk

Examples: RENEW (Rehabilitation, Empowerment, Natural supports, Education and Work) facilitators

Individualized

Targeted

School-wide

30


Minnesota’s Model


Examples: Extracurricular activities, school-to-work programs,

or positive discipline programs

Examples: Interventions build specific skills, school-within-a-

school model, or mentoring programs (15% of students)

Examples: Individualized behavior plans, wrap-around services, alternative programs (5% of

students)Targeted

Selected

Universal

31


Example Programs that incorporate this strategy:

America’s Choice

First Things First

School Development Program

Talent Development High School


America’s Choice


Step Five (cont.):Assign and Provide Interventions

• Focus on achievement in core courses • Content recovery courses• Tutoring as an academic support • Tiered approaches• Attendance and behavior monitors• Advisories and team teaching• Counseling and mentoring• Small learning communities and school within a

school for greater personalization• Partnerships between high schools and feeder

middle schools• Ninth grade transition programs• Support for students with disabilities outside

of school• Career and college awareness• Family engagement• Community engagement


America’s Choice

Check and Connect

Coca-Cola VYP

Interpersonal Relations Personal Growth Class

NGP

Quantum Opportunities Program

School Development Program


Twelve Together


Academic Literacy Program

Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS)

Rehabilitation, Empowerment, National supports, Education, and Work (RENEW)

RTI

Strategic Instruction Model


ALAS

Check and Connect

Coca-Cola VYP


PBIS

Project COFFEE


Teen Outreach Program


Middle College High School

NGP

STEP


ALAS

Check and Connect

First Things First


Project COFFEE

Twelve Together


Career Academies

First Things First


NGP

Project COFFEE



Project GRAD


Career Academies

Ninth Grade Success Academies

STEP


Check and Connect

PBIS


Career Academies

Learning to Work Program (NYC)

Lifelong Options Program (LOP)


Project COFFEE

RENEW

Twelve Together


ALAS

First Things First

Support Center for Adolescent Mothers (Family Growth Center)

NGP


Example programs using these types of strategies:

• ALAS• America’s Choice• Career Academies• Check and Connect• Support Center for Adolescent

Mothers (Family Growth Center)

• Middle College High School• NGP• Quantum Opportunities

Program• Teen Outreach Program

32


Step Six: Monitor Students and Interventions

• The VEWS team monitors students who are participating in interventions to:

– Make necessary midcourse corrections by identifying students’ whose needs are not being met

– Identify new interventions that will to meet students’ needs

– Use data to monitor the effectiveness of interventions offered

• Increase knowledge about the general effectiveness of interventions

• Improve the matching of students to interventions

– Communicate with families and appropriate stakeholders and solicit their involvement in the monitoring process



Step Seven: Evaluate and Refine the VEWS Process

• Refine the VEWS Implementation Process

– During the school year

– At the end of a school year

• Identify short- and long-term needs and solutions

– Student needs

– Organizational needs (school and/or division)



Step Seven: Evaluate and Refine the VEWS Process

• Validate the indicators to maximize predictive power of the system


Displayed Early Warning Sign in 9th Grade?

Graduated in 4 (or 5) Years?

YES NO

YESFalse Positive(or EffectiveIntervention)

AccuratePrediction

NOAccurate

PredictionFalse Negative

35


VEWS Tool Demonstration


©2010 American Institutes for Research® www.betterhighschools.org

Eight Elements ofHigh School Improvement

• The Eight Elements of High School Improvement comprise a framework for mapping comprehensive and systemic school, district, and state high school improvement efforts

• The Eight Elements are:

– Rigorous Curriculum and Instruction

– Assessment and Accountability

– Teacher Effectiveness and Professional Growth

– Student and Family Involvement

– Stakeholder Engagement

– Effective Leadership

– Organization and Structure

– Sustainability


The Eight Elements

• Each of the Eight Elements is broken into subcategories to improve users’ ability to address high school improvement issues

• For example, each element is organized in the following manner:

Element• Areas of Focus

• Indicators of Effectiveness


Areas of Focus andIndicators of Effectiveness


The Eight Elements and VEWS

• How can VEWS Tool support high school improvement efforts in terms of the Eight Elements?

– The VEWS Tool helps provides data/evidence of areas of need

• VEWS student level reports

• VEWS school level reports

– The Eight Elements provide a framework for addressing these needs


EXAMPLEThe Eight Elements and VEWS

• VEWS Implementation Guide Example

– Step 7: Evaluate and refine the VEWS process

• Guiding Questions - Longer-Term Question:

• Do the VEWS data reveal systemic problems in the district or school (e.g., risk factors that are prevalent from year to year, feeder patterns, schools with persistent problems, groups of students who are consistently identified)?

• How can the VEWS Tool reports (evidence) be used to identify areas of need?


Eight Elements Self-Assessment

• A Coherent Approach to High School Improvement: A District and School Self-Assessment

– Users rate themselves on implementation their schools’ implementation of each of the Eight Element indicators

– Results allow users to see where they need to focus high school improvement efforts

• Self-Assessment and VEWS

– The VEWS Tool provides supporting evidence for user ratings

– VEWS Tool reports allow users to track performance over time (after self-assessment baseline)


A Coherent Approach to High School Improvement: A District and School

Self -Assessment


A Coherent Approach to High School Improvement: A District and School

Self-Assessment

• Once users rate themselves on implementation of each indicator and area of focus, they can use the Next Steps section of the tool to strategically plan future high school improvement efforts based on the ratings


• The Eight Elements break school improvement issues into manageable parts/steps that can be addressed

EXAMPLE Aligning Improvement Strategies to the

Eight Elements

Element 4. Student and Family Involvement

Area of focus Student and Family Supports

Indicators of effectiveness

4.5 Students are supported as they transition in and out of high school

Element: 2. Assessment and Accountability

Area of focus: Multiple Assessment Strategies

Indicators of effectiveness

2.2 Students with special needs and those at risk of failure are identified early and are matched with appropriate interventions


EXAMPLE The Eight Elements and VEWS


EXAMPLEThe Eight Elements and VEWS


EXAMPLEPossible Improvement Strategies

• Self-assessment implementation of indicator ratings:

– 2.2 Students with special needs and those at risk of failure are identified early and are matched with appropriate interventions: little to no evidence

– 4.5 Students are supported as they transition in and out of high school: little to no evidence

• Areas of need

– Many students need transition supports

– Students with disabilities need interventions to address their needs


EXAMPLEPossible Solutions and Next Steps

• Possible solutions and next steps:

– Implement a transition intervention in your school for both SWDs and all students

– Keep track of interventions and students assigned to interventions using the VEWS tool

– Monitor over time if students are getting back on track for graduation through this intervention using the VEWS tool


EXAMPLEMonitoring Transition Services


EXAMPLE Monitoring Interventions for SWDs

June 30, 2010


Eight Elements: New Online Self-Assessment

• The new online version of the self-assessment includes several additional features:

– A cumulative rating system to assess the degree of implementation of each indicator

– Printable reports that highlight the level of implementation for each element and focus area

– Printable summary reports that provide an overall look at the degree of implementation of the Eight Elements

– The ability to save self assessment data so users can update reports as school improvement efforts are implemented


For More Information about…..

• VEWS & the Eight Elements

Virginia Department of Education Websitehttp://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/school_improvement/early_warning_system/index.shtml

• Questions about VEWS and Eight Elements of School Improvement

Dr. Kathleen Smith, Director, Office of School Improvements, Virginia Department of EducationEmail: [email protected]

• National High School Center Products http://www.betterhighschools.org

A Coherent Approach to High School Improvement: A District and School Self-Assessment http://betterhighschools.org/pubs/documents/EightElementsSelfAssessmentTool.pdf

COMING SOON: Online Self-Assessment Tool

http://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/school_improvement/early_warning_system/index.shtml

http://www.doe.virginia.gov/support/school_improvement/early_warning_system/index.shtml

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.betterhighschools.org/

http://betterhighschools.org/pubs/documents/EightElementsSelfAssessmentTool.pdf

http://betterhighschools.org/pubs/documents/EightElementsSelfAssessmentTool.pdf

© 2010 american institutes for research ® january 6 & 13, 2011 presenters susan bowles...

Documents

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american institutes

new high school dropout

high schoolsbeginning

school yearto

research virginia data

public school system

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