© 2012 international institute for learning, inc. introduction to managing complex projects

© 2012 International Institute for Learning, Inc.

Introduction to Managing Complex Projects


2

Presentation Overview

This module includes the following topics:

Complexity and Projects

Fibonacci Framework

Emotions and Decision Making

Importance of Risk Management

Scheduling Tools

Leadership in Complex Projects


Group Discussion

Despite

PMI, IPMA

PMBOK, PRINCE2

Hundreds of thousands or PMPs, etc.

Continuing unacceptable level of project failures

WHY?

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4

The “Somewhere In Between”

Ordered

Deterministic

Random

Sensitive to initial conditions

Simplicity Chaos

Edge of Chaos


Complex Systems Characteristics

Non-linearTipping

points/phase shifts“

EmergenceMacro different

from micro; non-deterministic

Dancing Landscape

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ICCPM

Characteristics of Complex Projects

Uncertainty, ambiguity, dynamic interfaces, and significant political or external influences

Run over a period which exceeds the technology being used at the start of the project

You know what you want to produce, but you don’t know how you’re going to build it

Adapted from presentation by Stephen Hayes, CEO ICCPM, at the ICCPM Research and Innovation Conference, Lille, France, 16 Aug

2010


7IIL’s Complex Project Framework – FIBONACCI

F

I

B

O

N

A

C

C

I


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Introduction to FIBONACCI

Based on IIL’s project methodology (UPMM), which:

Starts with PMI’s five standard process groups

Adds: Originating to address issues around properly

setting project expectations Continuous improvement added to address issues

around landscape adaptation– Structural– Temporal– Technical– Directional

Re-orients the phase names to reflect added elements required to handle complexity. (FIBONACCI)


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Framing


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Summary and Importance of Framing

Need to have a realistic understanding of project expectations and risks prior to and during the project.

Budget

Scope

Schedule

Business value


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Potential Pitfalls & Possible Solutions

Potential pitfalls:

Conspiracy of optimism

Related theories, e.g., Prospect Theory

Possible Solutions (objectivity)

Reference class forecasting

Pre-mortem

Benefits analysis audits

Push back


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Prospect Theory

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky – 1979

Challenged the “expected utility” theory of economic decision making which suggests rationality of decisions

Excessive attention to low-probability high-drama results vs. higher-probability common occurrences (traveling during “high terrorism” alert vs. traveling anytime by automobile)

Ignoring regression to the mean (gambling “hot streak,” 2008 economic crisis)

Problem framing affects decisions


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Framing the Issue

Problem 2Disease breakout in a small town – 1800 people may die - two possible vaccines available to deal with the crisis

Vaccine X: 1200 of 1800 people will die

Vaccine Y: 33% probability no one will die; 67% probability 1800 people will die

Problem 1Disease breakout in a small town – 1800 people may die – two possible vaccines available to deal with the crisis

Vaccine X: 600 people will be saved

Vaccine Y: 33% probability all will be saved; 67% probability all will die

K/T experiments: 72% chose the risk-averse (600 will be saved) selection,

Vaccine X.

K/T experiments: 78% chose the risk-seeking

(could not tolerate sure loss of 1200) selection,

Vaccine Y.


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Framing Conclusions

We’re risk averse when a problem is framed in a particular manner, and risk seeking when the same problem is framed differently.

We tend to focus on parts of problems (particularly those that most immediately affect our thinking) rather than the problem as a whole.


15Reference Class Forecasting – An Outside Look

Lovallo/Kahneman and Flyvbjerg both suggest Reference Class Forecasting

Select reference class

Assess distribution of outcomes

Predict your project’s position in the distribution

Assess reliability of your prediction

Correct intuitive estimate

Adapted from Lovallo, D. and Kahneman, D., Delusions of Success, Harvard Business Review, p. 7


Pre-mortem

A “post-mortem” before the project starts:

Envision failed project one year hence

Consider why the project might have failed

Correct initial top-down estimates

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Inception


Before We Look At Inception…

SIX VOLUNTEERS

PLEASE!

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19Summary and Importance of Inception Phase

Inception phase parallels and enhances “Initiating”

Initiating is mission critical for complex projects

Key factors: Stakeholders Risk Project managers’

competencies


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Potential Inception Pitfalls

Beware of:

Assuming successful traditional PM can lead a complex project

Underestimating importance of: Charter’s acceptance by

key stakeholders Political dynamics in

stakeholder interactions Emerging (unknown) risk


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Risk Categories

Complex risk categories

Structural

Technical

Directional

Temporal

Adapted from Remington, Kaye and Pollack, J., Tools for Complex Projects (Surrey, Gower Publishing Ltd, 2008) pp. 6-8

Complex Project (Risk Breakdown Structure)

Structural

Technical

Directional

Temporal


Structural Complexity

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Hugh effort

Difficult to schedule/track

Many parallel activities

Difficult to track all the risks


Technical Complexity

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Never done before

Never seen before

Difficult technical solutions


Directional Complexity

No consensus on strategic direction

Competing agendas

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Temporal Complexity

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Major external changes affect project Leadership M & A Regulatory Political

Extended duration projects


Beware of Reinforcing Risks

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Risks

A B C D E F G

A X

B

C X

D

E X X X

F X

G X X

B

C

G

F

E D

A

DE

Risk Interface Matrix

Circle of Potential Risks


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Blueprint


28Summary and Importance of Blueprint Phase

Multiple, differing life cycles may be needed

Precise planning for all phases of project not possible – rolling wave planning required

Importance of involving stakeholdersin planning process, getting buy-in

Need for exploring non-traditional procurement vehicles

Ambiguity in the planning process is normal

Repurposed scheduling/tracking tools


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Potential Planning Pitfalls

Discomfort with ambiguity leads to wasting effort trying to pin things down

Traditional scheduling tools not able to handle ambiguity/what ifs

Imposition of single, inappropriate life cycle due to organizational intransigence

Unwillingness of corporate purchasing organizationto pursue alternative procurement vehicles


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Scheduling/Tracking Tool Issues

Today’s scheduling tools are not difficult to use on simple projects, however:

They become much more cumbersome to use on medium to large projects

As comprehensive tools evolved, the difficulty of using them increased Difficulty of use limits its use to

scheduling specialists Stakeholder interaction with

scheduling process marginalized


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Shift in Scheduling Emphasis

Current scheduling tools

Linear

Deterministic

Complex projects are neither linear nor deterministic, so that:

Need exists for tools to reflect reality of complex projects

New tools need to: Facilitate non-

linearity & emergence

Promote polyarchic planning

Help to motivate project team members


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NetPoint

Graphical path method

Link gap

Drift, float

Collaborative planning


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Oversight, Navigation & Adjustments


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Summary and Importance of O, N & A

Changing organizational structures

Need for polyarchic leadership

Use of situational leadership styles

KPIs’ key to stakeholder management

Importance of networks to information management


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Potential O, N & A Pitfalls

Traditional hierarchical organization structures not enabling for complex adaptive systems

PM’s discomfort with continuing uncertainties, ambiguities leads to: Imposition of oligarchic leadership Squelching creativity Demotivating project team

Stakeholders not abiding by their agreements

KPIs improperly defined or not defined at all

Improperly skilled or motivated team members


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Chimneys to CAS Organization

Obolensky, Nick. Complex Adaptive Leadership (Surrey, Gower Publishing, 2010) p. 23


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The Leader/Follower Charade

Complex Adaptive Leadership1

Charade in today’s leader/follower relationship

Preponderance of solutions to problems originate in the middle and bottom of the organization.

Regardless, leaders pretend they’ve got all of the answers, followers are culpable in letting them continue the charade.

Subordinates need to challenge in order to follow, and superiors must listen in order to lead.2

1Obolensky, Nick. Complex Adaptive Leadership (Burlington, Gower Publishing Company) 2010

2 Hirschorn, L. and T. Gilmore. “The New Boundaries of the Boundaryless Company” Harvard Business

Review, May-June 1992 as cited in Obolensky.


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Exercise – Leaderless Team


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Presentation Recap

This module included the following topics:

Complexity and Projects

Fibonacci Model

Emotions and Decision Making

Importance of Risk Management

Scheduling Tools

Leadership in Complex Projects


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Questions?


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© 2012 international institute for learning, inc. introduction to managing complex projects

Documents

international institute

framing slide

decisions slide

inception slide

failed project

vaccine y

reference class forecasting

crisis vaccine x