© 2012 mit, all rights reserved the energy proforma in practice and policy presentation to the...

© 2012 MIT, all rights reserved

The Energy Proforma in Practice and Policy

Presentation to

The Energy Foundation

Beijing

OCTOBER 30, 2013

Dennis Frenchman Leventhal Professor of Urban Design and PlanningChristopher Zegras Associate Professor of Transportation Planning


2012-2013 PROJECT TEAMPrincipal Investigators

Supported by EF and MIT:Supported by EF, LCEUA & MIT:

Supported by MIT:


POLICY PROPOSALS & CHALLENGESIN PRACTICE

ENERGY PROFORMA

2012-2013 PROJECT DEVELOPMENTS

MODELING &

SIMULATION FOR IN-HOME & TRANSPORT ENERGY

Simulation of Household In-home and Transport Energy Use:An integrated behavioral model for estimating energy consumption at the neighborhood scale

The Energy Proforma: Measuring neighborhood energy performance for design, development, and urban policy

Neighborhood Energy Performance Policy for China Implementing Energy-Efficient Neighborhood Form in China

PAPERS:


INCORPORATING FEEDBACK FROM ACADEMICS & STAKEHOLDERS

• MIT-Tsinghua Joint Studio surveys & interviews

• Interviews with 20 urban planning professionals in Shenzhen and Jinan

• Kunming Chenggong planning delegation & EF symposium at MIT

• Lincoln Land Institute – Peking University RUSE conference

• Mayoral training program by American Planning Association, held at MIT

June 2012

Jan-Dec 2012

January 2013

June 2013

July-Sept 2013


CHINA IN 2030:

McKinsey Global Institute Preparing for China’s Urban Billion March 2009

300 MILLION NEW URBAN RESIDENTS

30,000 NEW SUPERBLOCK DEVELOPMENTS

TOWER SPRAWL: IS IT SUSTAINABLE?


ENERGY PERFORMANCE @ THE NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE

• Neighborhood = fundamental unit of urban development

• Evidence of measurable relationships between energy use and urban form

• Measurable & manageable energy performance (using Energy Proforma)

• Opportunity for improving energy efficiency through

• Urban development regulation and land policies

• Real estate market transformation strategies


7

Building scale

1:50

Urban development scale

1:1000

Metro scale

1:20,000

调查规模 Scales of Investigation

城市尺度

社区开发尺度

建筑尺度

1. 探索邻里尺度的能源消耗和城市形态之关系Explore relationships between energy and urban form at the neighborhood scale

2. 开发新的用于分析、设计以及能源使用相关政策的工具Develop new tools for analysis, design, and policy related to energy use in neighborhoods

OBJECTIVES目标


20．Driving is a sign of prestige 1 2 3 4 5

21．Having too many cars is the main reason of traffic congestion 1 2 3 4 5

22．Taking public transit is convenient 1 2 3 4 5

23．I enjoy bicycling 1 2 3 4 5

24．Time spent traveling is wasted time for me 1 2 3 4 5

25．Transportation convenience is important in choosing the residence 1 2 3 4 5

26．I prefer living around people who are similar to me 1 2 3 4 5

27．Living in a gated community is a sign of prestige 1 2 3 4 5

28．I think gated community provides better security 1 2 3 4 5

29．I prefer to have shops and services such as laundry, barber and restaurants 1 2 3 4 5

30．My family pays close attention to saving water, gas or electricity 1 2 3 4 5

城市设计Urban Design

数字化的能源工具

DigitalEnergy Tool

人的活动Human Activity

INTEGRATED APPROACH综合的路径


ENERGY PROFORMA CONCEPT


JINAN: DEMONSTRATION CITY济南 : 案例城市


Traditional Fabric

Urban Grid

Low-rise Slab/Enclave

High-rise Superblock

传统结构城市网格低层排楼 / 聚集区高层超大街区

URBAN FORM IN JINAN AND CHINA济南及中国的城市形态


超大街区( 阳光 100)

城中村 ( 张家村 )

传统结构( 芙蓉 )

聚集区( 佛山院 )

城市网格( 旧 CBD)


TOTAL ANNUAL ENERGY USE OF NEIGHBORHOODS邻里的年度总能耗


INTEGRATED IN-HOME/TRANSPORT MODEL FRAMEWORK


Family Structure

( 家庭结构 )

Single 6.68%Couple 23.64%

Couple & kids 42.11%Couple & parents 4.76%

Grandparents & grandchild 2.92%Three generations 19.97%

Household Size

( 家庭大小 )

1 4.90%2 25.30%3 40.90%4 16.70%

>4 12.20%

Annual Income (Yuan)

( 家庭年收入 )

Min 4300Max 720000

Mean 93066Std. 74756

Air Conditioner

( 空调 )

0 12.7%1 36.7%

>1 50.6%

Vehicle Portfolio

( 机动车拥有 )

No vehicle owned 30.6%E-bikes only 23.9%Motorcycles 5.2%

Cars only 24.1%Cars and other vehicles) 16.2%

SOCIO-ECONOMICAND EQUIPMENTOWNERSHIPINDICATORS家庭社会经济属性及电器 / 机动车拥有情况


开车是名望的表达式 Driving is a sign of prestige 34.0%

坐公共交通很方便 It is convenient to take buses 67.5%

我喜欢骑自行车 I like riding bicycles 53.7%

坐交通的时间是浪费时间 Time spent on travel is a waste to me 35.6%

我宁肯住在较大的房子 I’d like to live in bigger house 55.2%

我喜欢旅游 I like traveling 66.7%

超市的塑料袋子应该免费的 Plastic shopping bags should be free 50.6%

达官出外不坐公交车也不骑自行车 High-rank officials do not take buses or ride bicycles to go out

57.9%

有钱的人出外不坐公交车也不骑自行车 Rich men do not take buses or ride bicycles to go out

52.4%

我经常户外健身 I exercise regularly outside 62.3%

塑袋及塑料瓶子都再使用 I reuse things like plastic bottles or bags 69.3%

ATTITUDES INDICATORS住户态度指标


密度Density

Residential DensityBuilding coverageBuilding mass porosity

多样性Diversity

Building function mixLand use mix within 500mStreet level shops

设计Design

Neighborhood sizeGreen coverageContinuity of street façadeMotorway widthSouthern exposure indexSurface-to-volume ratio

可达性Accessibility

Building footprint size Distance btw entriesParking provisionStreets with sidewalksRoad densityCul-de-sacsBus Rapid Transit routes

位置Location

Distance to city centerRegional accessibility

NEIGHBORHOOD FORM VARIABLES城市形态的变量


Wind Porosity多孔性

NEIGHBORHOOD FORM VARIABLES城市形态的变量

Solar Exposure朝南指数

Site Coverage建筑覆盖率

Surface-to-Volume表面体积比


Density Residential DensityBuilding coverage

Building mass porosity

Diversity Building function mixLand use mix within 500m

Street level shops

Design Neighborhood sizeGreen coverage

Continuity of street façadeMotorway width

Southern exposure indexSurface-to-volume ratio

Accessibility Building footprint size Distance btw entries

Parking provisionStreets with sidewalks

Road densityCul-de-sacs

Bus Rapid Transit routes

Location Distance to city centerRegional accessibility

Appliance

Vehicle

LifestyleTrade-off

Electricity

In-homeEnergy

TripFrequency

Internal/External

Mode-Distance

RELATIONSHIPSIN MODELS


Transport

Residential density ↑20 HH/acre

Street level shops ↑20%

Function mix ↑10%

Streets with sidewalks ↑20%

Continuity of building façade ↑10%

SIMULATION: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Continuity of street façade: 10% X Continuity of street façade: 80% 　

In-home

Porosity ↓10%

Southern orientation index ↑10%

% energy savings in year 1% energy savings in year 10

7.5%7.2%

2%1.9%

9.5%10.7%

7.5%7.2%

2.0%8.1%

0.6%3.3%

11.4%12.4%


SIMULATION: PREDICTION IN 20 YEARS

电动车摩托车小汽车公交车0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

TRADITIONAL 第 1 年第 10 年第 20 年

MJ


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

COMMERCIAL GRID 第 1 年第 10 年第 20 年


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

6-STORY ENCLAVE 第 1 年第 10 年第 20 年

MJ


2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

SUPERBLOCK 第 1 年第 10 年第 20 年


2 1

3

ENERGY PROFORMA 2.4: USED IN BEIJING STUDIO 2012

Real-timeadjustments of neighborhood form measures

Visual feedbackon overall

energy use

Detailed textoutput


MIT-TSINGHUA 2012 JOINT STUDIO ASSESSMENT:Feedback from students and collaborators in Beijing

How strong is the relationship between energy use and neighborhood form?

(Before studio -> After)

Assessment of Proforma’s impact on studio learning objectives

(Before studio -> After)

1 Understanding of overall energy use in neighborhood:Improvement in almost all students

2 3 Understanding of impacts of specific design choices: some students improved


ENERGY PROFORMA 3.0: DEVELOPMENT IN 2012-2013ENERGYPROFORMA.mit.edu


DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED PLATFORM FOR URBAN STAKEHOLDERS


ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DESIGNERS: RAPID PROTOTYPING OF CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOODS


DETAILED ANALYSIS OUTPUT PER ENERGY DIMENSION


ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DESIGNERS: PERFORMANCE COMPARISON ACROSS DESIGN OPTIONS


ENERGY PROFORMA FOR DEVELOPERS: LIFECYCLE COST INCLUDING ENERGY CONSUMPTION


ENERGY PROFORMA FOR PLANNING BUREAU: REGULATORY PLAN ENERGY PERFORMANCE ANALYSISBASED ON FEEDBACK FROM KUNMING/EF DELEGATION (JANUARY 2013)


DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED PLATFORM FOR URBAN STAKEHOLDERS: SUMMARY

CURRENT FEATURES:

• Open access (anyone can try it)

• Rapid analysis of neighborhood development and regulatory plans

• Information and design model repository for low carbon urban design

• Detailed feedback on neighborhood form measures (decision support for designers)

COMING SOON:

• Transparent back-end engine (with integrated documentation)

• Extensible back-end models and/or data via API

• Simulation with population generation and changes in neighborhood form

• Detailed analysis of energy/fuel sources

• Improved usability (better geometry input)

• Financial analysis (lifecycle cost)


USING THE PROFORMA TO EVALUATE POLICY PROPOSALS ACROSS 3 DOMAINS:

Regulation

Prescriptive Guidelines

Performance Standard

Municipal Finance

Land Lease Modification

Property Taxes

Market Transformation

Energy Disclosure & Labeling

Carbon EmissionTrading


BASIS IN CHINA CITY PILOT PROGRAMS

Regulation


SHENZHEN etc. green building

guidelines


(Some eco-city indicators; national

building EE standard)

Municipal Finance


TIANJIN & NANCHANG green building &

infrastructure lease requirements

Property Taxes

CHONGQING & SHANGHAI

tax pilot for public housing



SHANGHAI Commercial/public building database

Carbon EmissionTrading

GUANGZHOU &

CHONGQING verified emissions

reductions and carbon tickets


REGULATION urban land use and planning standards of development land

Code of urban Residential Areas Planning & Design

Green ecological neighborhood Technical indicators

Evaluation Standard for Green Buildings

Green Building Guideline SZ

URBAN

Land use　

urban development land per capita 　　　　　residential land per capita 　　　　　public services land per capita 　　　　　street and transportation land per capita 　　　　　green space per capita 　　　　　park land per capita 　　　　　composition of urban development land 　　　　　grid density 　　　　　

Streets and transportation

means of transportation 　　　　　width of urban roads 　　　　　accessbility to public transportation 　　　　　

NEIGHBORHOOD

green space　　

Green space rate 　　　　　Plants requirements 　　　　　public green space per-capita 　　　　　green roof ratio

Streets and transportation　　

paving and roads area ratio 　　　　　accessbility: entraces 　　　　　road density 　　　　　bike lane 　　　　　width of roads 　　　　　other requirements on roads 　　　　　parking space per capita 　　　　　ground-floor parking space ratio 　　　　　

Density Control

residential land ratio 　　　　　residential land per capita 　　　　　total scale of population and households 　　　　　residential buildings insolation interval 　　　　　building interval 　　　　　building height 　　　　　building density 　　　　　building façade ratio Floor area ratio 　　　　　window-wall ratio 　　　　　building covering area 　　　　　

Service and Infrastructure

public facility space per capitapublic service accessibilitypermeable flooring ratio

Recycle, energy use

garbage recycling ratio &classify 　　　　　water recycling ratio 　　　　　renewable clean energy ratio 　　　　　origin of material 　　

INDICATORS/CRITERIA IN CURRENT CODES (from December)


ENERGY-BASED GUIDELINES


ENERGY-BASED GUIDELINES: ACCESSIBILITY

CONVENTIONAL LOW-CARBON


设计阶段Design Before

管理阶段Analysis After

指令性的Prescriptive

生态城市规范Eco-city Regulations

基于能源的导则Energy-based Guidelines

生态城市规范Eco-city Regulations

生态城市指标Eco-city Indicators

绩效性的Performance

能源绩效计算器预测Energy Proforma Estimation

生态城市指标Eco-city Indicators

能源绩效计算器分析Proforma Analysis

NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARD


NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY PERFORMANCE STANDARD


MUNICIPAL FINANCE REFORMS:LAND LEASE MODIFICATIONS AND PROPERTY TAXES TO SUPPORT CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOOD DEVELOPMENT

@ 1% of market value per annum on new residential


NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY LABELING AND DISCLOSURE

HIGH ENERGY USE

AVERAGE

LOW


NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY LABELING AND DISCLOSURE

Adapted from Nadkarni, Nikhil, and Harvey Michaels. 2012. “A New Model for Disclosing the Energy Performance of Residential Buildings.”


CARBON TRADING FOR NEIGHBORHOODS

Chen Demin, Tan Zhixion - 2012 – “Establishment of Regional Carbon Trading Market: A Case Study of Chongqing”, 重庆市碳交易市场构建研究


NEIGHBORHOOD ENERGY EFFICIENCY CERTIFICATESFOR EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES


INTEGRATED POLICY SUPPORT FOR CLEAN ENERGY NEIGHBORHOOD DEVELOPMENT

Regulation



Neighborhood standards for “eco-city” programs

Municipal Finance


Property Taxes

Government official evaluation metrics

Green Loans



Carbon EmissionsTrading

Full neighborhood rating & professional accreditation

Neighborhood ESCOs & cooperation with UDICs


POLICY PROPOSALS

• Prescriptive codes• Neighborhood

Energy Performance Standard (NEPS)

• Municipal finance reforms (land lease & property taxes)

• Market strategies (energy labeling & carbon trading)

ENERGY PROFORMA

Rapid neighborhood energy assessment can be part of workflow for:• Designers• Developers• Planning bureau• Policymakers

PRESENTATION SUMMARY

MODELING& SIMULATION

• Integrated behavioral modeling of in-home & transport energy use

• Microsimulation framework for future transport use and energy consumption

Making the Clean Energy City in ChinaENERGYPROFORMA.MIT.EDU

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