© 2015 jenzabar, inc. increase your prediction accuracy and achieve maximum student success paul...
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© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Increase Your Prediction Accuracyand Achieve Maximum Student SuccessPaul Gore Xavier [email protected]
Burt [email protected]
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Psychologist with background in K-20 student success, vocational psychology and higher education
Faculty for 17 years 3 years as Director of Career Transitions Research Dept. at ACT 7 years as Director of Institutional Research Director of graduate programs FYE Advisory Board, Journal Editor 2013-2014 ACE Leadership Fellow – Montana State University (higher
education financing and student success agenda) Active in secondary and higher education consulting for 14 years in the US
and 9 foreign countries Worked on development and implementation of 3 non-cognitive measures
of student success with dozens of institutions
Overview
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Overview
The role of
Non-cognitive Factors
In Student Success
Evidence of non-cognitives in academic success and retention
Assessment tool and use case models
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Fail to Complete High School
Fail to Attend College
Fail to Complete collegeIs this what we want
to call Success?
STUDENT PROGRESSION
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PublicUniversities
PrivateUniversities
80%
70%
2-YearColleges
50%
Retention Rates
Student Progression
First Gen 30%
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Risk Prediction and Mitigation
Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams
Applicants
RiskMitigation
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Risk Prediction and Mitigation
I just don’t know how to study
My friends were allgoing to college so I
went too
College is so much harder than high school – I was too stressed out
I don’t know what happened. I never paid
attention in my high school classes!
I didn’t feel welcomed or
involved on campus
Applicants
Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams
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Demographics (opportunity structure) Academic ability/aptitude (ACT/SAT/GPA) Finances Motivation Lack of direction Lack of knowledge Life demands Self confidence Campus and academic engagement
Predicting Student Success
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc. © 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Predicting Student Success
‘In addition to content knowledge and academic skills, students must develop sets of behaviors, skills, attitudes and strategies that are crucial to academic performance in their classes…’
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Predicting Student Success
CollegeSuccess
GPA
StandardizedAchievement
Non-cognitive Skills
15 – 20%
5 – 8%
10 – 15%
Leuwerke, Gore, Cole, & Reese, (2011)
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Predicting Student SuccessCo
llege
Suc
cess
At risk
Outperforming
Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Predicting Student SuccessCo
llege
Suc
cess
At risk
Outperforming
Grades, ACT, SAT, Course Placement Exams
High ResiliencyHigh Engagement
Low Educational Commitment
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
If non-cognitive factors reliably predict student outcomes (and they do)
And you can reliably measure incoming student non-cognitive strengths and weaknesses (and you can)
And you already have the programs and services that can be mapped to those strengths and weaknesses (and you do)
Why wouldn’t you seek to align non-cognitive assessment and other predictive data with existing programs and services to promote student success?
Predicting Student Success
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
College Readiness Inventory (CRI)
49 Items7 Scales
Psychometrically Sound
Predictive validity study
underway
Fall 2015
• Predictive model enhancement
• FYE topic focus• Student advising
and goal setting• Targeted outreach
and intervention• Risk mitigation
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Academic Engagement Academic Self-Efficacy Campus Engagement Educational
Commitment Institutional Valence Life Complexity/Roles Resilience
College Readiness Inventory (CRI)
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Use institutional data to allocate resources across programs
Use data to inform classroom level teaching and interventions
Use data to inform cohort level needs
Use data to intervene with students: Make an ACTION PLAN
Non-cognitive Interventions
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CRI: Private 4 Year Univ
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CRI: Priv. Rel Afil. 4 Year
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CRI: Public 2 Year
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CRI: Priv. Rel Afil. 4 Year
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CRI: Student Examples
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CRI: Student Examples
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
CRI: Student Examples
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
© 2015 Jenzabar, Inc.
Complete predictive modeling analysis
Scale institutional use• Institutional reports• Student level reports• Recommendations• Staff/advisor training
Consult with institutions to develop use-case models that take advantage of existing retention predictors as well as non-cognitive factors
Next Steps
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CRI Scales