Дополнительные услуги операторов связи: возможности,...

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2 Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12

Выживание в джунглях. Теоретические советы. Vladimir Litovka ([email protected]) Business Development Manager, SP / RCIS

October ‘ 2012

Cisco Expo 2012 Новые Возможности для Ваших Идей

© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 3

Market trends

Increasing Revenue

Avoiding Churn

Reducing Costs

Key Takeaways


“France Telecom-Orange (FT-Orange) … was hurt in its domestic market by intense competition triggered by the arrival of Iliad’s Free Mobile, a new low-cost cellco. Orange France lost 155,000 mobile subscribers during the second quarter, an improvement on the 615,000 lost during the first quarter.” – Telegeography

“… by 2016 operators will have lost $54bn in SMS revenues due to the increasing popularity of social messaging services on smartphones, more than double the $23bn they are expected to have lost by the end of 2012” – Ovum

"Broadcast IPTV's market share is diminishing rapidly,” … particularly in the U.S., which has coined the phrase 'cutting the cord' to describe users who end long-running, often expensive relationships with big cable TV providers and opt instead for content delivered by the likes of Netflix. -- Oliver Johnson, Point Topic CEO

✔ !

✔

✔


Cloud Services, Machine to Machine (M2M)

Microsoft 365, iCloud, Google Cloud, … •  higher requirements to response time •  higher requirements to network presence

  Global software-as-a-service (SaaS) sales are tipped to grow almost 18% year-on-year in 2012, and will continue to increase through 2015. (Gartner)

  The transition to Cloud based services such as Amazon EC2, iCloud, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Office 365 will contribute over 384 Exabytes (1018 bytes) to Internet backbone traffic by 2016. (Cisco VNI)

  Majority of enterprises or 84% across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) consider cloud computing to be a priority and 56% consider it a critical priority over the next 18 months, according to a latest study. (Vmware)

  The number of machine-to-machine device connections globally will grow to 2.1 billion by 2021, up from 100.4 million last year, according to new research from Analysys Mason.


Entertainment: Internet Video, File Sharing

Hulu

  bandwidth hungry

* Source: Cisco 2011

91 Percentage Share of

Video in Consumer Traffic(*)

55 Percentage of Internet

Video in Consumer Traffic

Youtube

Netflix

  non-multicastable

  sensitive to packet loss

…

(*) Including Video over P2P


© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Confidential of 25

Adding backbone capacity is costly, but it has always been possible to get a return on these investments. Soon however, adding capacity will be seen to carry more risk than reward. Cisco and others anticipate that by 2015, a breaking point will be reached where the costs of expanding backbone networks will exceed the revenue potential present in the traffic carried (Figure 2)iii. This problem is exacerbated by the shifting of revenue towards content providers, leaving service providers struggling to capture sufficient revenue from predominantly flat–rate, bandwidth-based service offerings.

Many factors are driving service providers inexorably towards this breaking point – some technical, some architectural, and some organizational – but all result from the manner in which backbone architectures have traditionally been built. Continued reliance on conventional linear scaling solutions to address non-linear issues will only accelerate the arrival of this breaking point.

The following sections explore these factors and their impact. They also examine a number of proposals and point solutions that appear useful at first but, once examined, prove insufficient because they address only a single dimension of a multi-dimensional problem.

Finally, this paper will describe a set of new technologies and platforms that together enable a promising new architectural approach – one that can help service providers turn back from the breaking point and efficiently deliver the needed capacity and flexibility.

Factors Inhibiting Growth, Efficiency, and Profitability In order to thrive, service providers must find ways to increase revenue or reduce capital and operational costs from their backbone networks. Increasing bandwidth, flexibility, and efficiency are critical to achieving both of these goals. Several factors common to the majority of service provider backbone networks are slowing or preventing progress in these areas – including architectural/organizational factors and factors related to the DWDM, optical TDM, and packet layers.

Architectural and Organizational Factors

Traditional backbone architectures have evolved over many years to include layers that exist and operate in relative isolation. These layers include (as shown in Figure 3):

A Packet Layer: Based on IP/MPLS, this layer forms the foundation for packet based consumer, business, and Internet services. Today, IP/MPLS routers connect via circuits provided by the underlying TDM layer or, with increasing frequency, via wavelengths provided by the DWDM layer.

An Optical TDM Layer: This layer provides the ability to multiplex circuit- or packet-based services onto underlying wavelengths at sub wavelength-rate. Today, this layer is primarily based on optical-electronic-optical (OEO) technologies such as Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) and Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (SDH), but a migration is beginning towards nascent, faster Optical Transport Networkiv (OTN) switching technologies. Circuit services for voice, mobile-backhaul, and private-line business services (services that require constant bit rates or hard isolation) are delivered by this layer.

Figure 2 - Global Service Provider Revenue versus Investments


© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. This document is Cisco Confidential Page 6 of 25

Adding backbone capacity is costly, but it has always been possible to get a return on these investments. Soon however, adding capacity will be seen to carry more risk than reward. Cisco and others anticipate that by 2015, a breaking point will be reached where the costs of expanding backbone networks will exceed the revenue potential present in the traffic carried (Figure 2)iii. This problem is exacerbated by the shifting of revenue towards content providers, leaving service providers struggling to capture sufficient revenue from predominantly flat–rate, bandwidth-based service offerings.

Many factors are driving service providers inexorably towards this breaking point – some technical, some architectural, and some organizational – but all result from the manner in which backbone architectures have traditionally been built. Continued reliance on conventional linear scaling solutions to address non-linear issues will only accelerate the arrival of this breaking point.

The following sections explore these factors and their impact. They also examine a number of proposals and point solutions that appear useful at first but, once examined, prove insufficient because they address only a single dimension of a multi-dimensional problem.

Finally, this paper will describe a set of new technologies and platforms that together enable a promising new architectural approach – one that can help service providers turn back from the breaking point and efficiently deliver the needed capacity and flexibility.

Factors Inhibiting Growth, Efficiency, and Profitability In order to thrive, service providers must find ways to increase revenue or reduce capital and operational costs from their backbone networks. Increasing bandwidth, flexibility, and efficiency are critical to achieving both of these goals. Several factors common to the majority of service provider backbone networks are slowing or preventing progress in these areas – including architectural/organizational factors and factors related to the DWDM, optical TDM, and packet layers.

Architectural and Organizational Factors

Traditional backbone architectures have evolved over many years to include layers that exist and operate in relative isolation. These layers include (as shown in Figure 3):

A Packet Layer: Based on IP/MPLS, this layer forms the foundation for packet based consumer, business, and Internet services. Today, IP/MPLS routers connect via circuits provided by the underlying TDM layer or, with increasing frequency, via wavelengths provided by the DWDM layer.

An Optical TDM Layer: This layer provides the ability to multiplex circuit- or packet-based services onto underlying wavelengths at sub wavelength-rate. Today, this layer is primarily based on optical-electronic-optical (OEO) technologies such as Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) and Synchronous Digital Hierarchy (SDH), but a migration is beginning towards nascent, faster Optical Transport Networkiv (OTN) switching technologies. Circuit services for voice, mobile-backhaul, and private-line business services (services that require constant bit rates or hard isolation) are delivered by this layer.

Figure 2 - Global Service Provider Revenue versus Investments Quality of Experience for Users Always on-net Quality of Support

Reduce Cost by: Service Delivery Infrastructure Simplification Dynamic Resource Allocation: Optimal Utilization

Increase Revenue through: New Business Models: Trusted Aggregator New Partnerships: Content, Applications, Business


New business models and services


Walled Garden Services + Simple IP Peering for Internet

Quality and Fair Payments + Scale and Openness

Services Network Closed Ecosystem

Roughly Symmetrical Traffic patterns for Access Service Provider

Internet Access & Triple Play Provider

Internet Backbone Provider

Internet Service Provider


Loose Ecosystem, Connectivity-based

$ $ $

$ $

$ Premium Content Provider

© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 11 Money and/or Value Flow Mismatch for Access SP

$ $ $




Applications and Content

Providers


Premium Content Provider

Margin Squeeze for Access SP

Highly Asymmetrical Traffic patterns

$ $ $ $ $

$ $

Breaks Traditional Internet Peering Business Model

© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 12 Money and/or Value Flow Mismatch for Access SP

$ $ $





Providers



CDN eases traffic mismatch

$ $ CDN and Cloud-based Content

Consumption $ $

Federated CDN for Greater Reach, Better

User Experience

Other party CDN $

$

© 2011 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Expo Ukraine ‘ 12 13 Optimum Value to End-Users

$ $ $





Providers



CDN eases traffic mismatch

$ $

$ CDN and

Cloud-based Content Consumption

$ $

Federated CDN for Greater Reach, Better

User Experience

Other party CDN

$ $ $

$

$ $ $ $ $ Cloud-based

Services Apps, Content, Resources

Global Backbone

Cloud-based Services

Cloud-based Services


В начале 2012 года трафик только EX.UA только через UA-IX составлял около

80Gbps (около 30% общей загрузки UA-IX)

Sou

rce:

http

://ai

n.ua

/201

2/05

/24/

8575

1/


Internet

Content Acquirer

Internet Streamers

Service Router

Published Content

Con

tent

Str

eam

er

•  VoD Streaming •  Live Streaming •  Concurrent Multi-Protocol •  HTTP Download & PDL

•  Stream HTTP, RTSP, RTMP (U-/MCast)

•  High Performance •  Detailed Reporting

Con

tent

Acq

uire

r •  Ingest to Hierarchical CDN

•  VoD Library Ingest

•  Live Streams Ingest

•  VoD Prepositioning

•  VoD Dynamic Cache-Fill •  Live Dynamic Stream

Split

•  HTTP, FTP, CIFS, NFS, RTSP

Serv

ice

Rou

ter •  Global Load Balancing

•  Content Request Routing

•  HTTP, RTMP, RTSP, DNS

•  Content and Load Aware

•  Subscriber & Network Aware

•  Integrates with BGP, OSPF

Management


1x STB 2x STB 3x STB TV service (UAH / month) 25 32 39 Equipment (UAH / month) 13 20 30 Total (UAH / month) 38 52 69


Sou

rce:

http

://tin

yurl.

com

/tabl

et-u

sage

-gro

wth

… and more than 70% of consumers use alternate electronic devices such as tablets, notebook PCs, smart phones, MP3 players and desktop computers to view TV/video content.


Source: http://www.sostav.ru/news/2012/10/05/online_market_intelligence/


Before (UAH / month) TV service Equipment Total Income (for 100k)

1x STB 25 13 38 60% 2,280,000 2x STB 32 20 52 30% 1,560,000 3x STB 39 30 69 10% 690,000 Total 4,530,000

After (UAH / month) TV service Equipment Total Income (for 100k)

1x STB 25 13 38 35% 1,330,000 2x STB 32 20 52 20% 1,040,000 3x STB 39 30 69 5% 345,000 Unlimited 46 13(*) 59 40% 2,360,000 Total 5,075,000

Growth (%) 12.0%

(*) Assume at least one STB in most cases – for at least one legacy TV set


Sources: Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2011; Bango Inc., February 2011; North Carolina State Univesity, Cisco IBSG 2011

80% of the time users are within Wi-Fi

coverage

Mostly nomadic use

19 out of 20 smartphones support Wi-Fi

50% of smartphone usage is already on

Wi-Fi

2010 2011 0%

50%

100%

23% 50%


Source:http://www.businessinsider.com/state-of-internet-slides-2012-10?op=1


Hotspot 2.0

Automatic network selection

Transparent authentication

Secured air interface

Security: rogue prevention

Transparent roaming

Full mobility & portability

MCC MNC

EAP-SIM/AKA

A5

A3/A8

802.11u

EAP-SIM/AKA

802.1x

802.1x

Hotspot today Hotspot 2.0

More details @ http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns524/ns673/white_paper_c11-649337.html


RF Intelligence

ClientLink

• Up to 87% throughput improvement • 20% range increase • Tested & validated by

Beamforming: focusing RF energy towards clients

CleanAir

• Automatically mitigate impact of wireless interference

• Self-healing, optimization • Network-wide visibility

Silicon-based spectrum analyzer

BandSelect

• Optimizes RF utilization • Frees up 2.4GHz space for single band

clients

AP-assisted 5Ghz band selection

VideoStream

• Video quality optimization • Resource reservation and streaming prioritization

• Reliable multicast

Wireless optimized for video

• Higher user density

More details @ http://www.cisco.com/go/spwifi


B2C

B2SP B2B

 Bundling WiFi to another service Differentiation Reducing customers churn

 Guest access Market visibility

 Premium Hotspot More capabilities Additional fees or bundling

 Managed Wireless LAN Additional fees or bundling

 WiFi Roaming Agreements  Mobile Offload Wholesale  Managed Small Cells

 Location-based services  M2M connectivity  Managed WiFi


Access & Aggregation

Internet

NAT, Firewall

Wireless Controllers

Policy / AAA / DHCP / Portal

Broadband Network Gateway

Management & Provisioning

Home

Community

Office

Business Access Points

Indoor

Outdoor

Residential

Wi-Fi


On-site Location Hardwared

“In-Cloud” Location Virtualized

* *

* *


IaaS

PaaS

SaaS

Infrastructure as a Service provides users with processing, storage, networks, and other computing infrastructure resources. The user does not manage or control the infrastructure, but has control over operating systems, applications, and programming frameworks.

Platform as a Service enables users to deploy applications developed using specified programming languages or frameworks and tools onto the Cloud infrastructure. The user does not manage or control the underlying infrastructure, but has control over deployed applications.

Software as a Service enables users to access applications running on a Cloud infrastructure from various end-user devices (generally through a web browser). The user does not manage or control the underlying Cloud infrastructure or individual application capabilities other than limited user-specific application settings.

Source: http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-145/SP800-145.pdf


Microsoft 365

Google Apps Salesforce

Microsoft Azure

Google Apps Engine

WorkXpress Jelastic

IaaS

PaaS

SaaS

Amazon AWS & EC2 ДЦ Парковый

Savvis Terrermark

Cisco Hosted Collaboration


Pay on Demand  

Pay as You Grow  

Optimal Allocation of Resources  

Seamless Technology Upgrade  

Focusing on Core Business Activities


Additional Revenue

Long-Term Relationships

Market Recognition

Resources Optimization


Revenue Increase

Churn Prevention

Market Visibility


Quality of Experience


Perception: 80% of CEO’s believe their brand provides a superior customer experience

Fact: 8% of their customers agree

Bain & Co (via FutureLab)

✔ Service and content from anywhere across all devices ✔

Technology perfection

Multi-Tier Support ✔


Technology Perfection


 Efficiency •  shortest / fastest paths •  arbitrary topology •  paths diversity •  interaction with applications

 Scalability, security •  bandwidth •  services •  subscribers

 Reliability, simplicity •  time of troubleshooting •  time of recover •  time of provisioning


 Efficiency •  shortest / fastest paths •  arbitrary topology •  paths diversity •  interaction with applications

 Scalability, security •  bandwidth •  services •  subscribers

 Reliability, simplicity •  time of troubleshooting •  time of recover •  time of provisioning

MPLS

Ethernet


Profitability = ƒ CapEx + OpEx Revenue

Manage the bandwidth Reduce operational complexity

Increase traffic efficiency

Making profit beyond basic subscriptions

Service quality and security

Maximize return from infrastructure

Investments savings


Spanning Tree

802.1ad (QinQ)

T-MPLS

802.1ah (PBB)

802.1Qay (PBB-TE)

802.1aq (SPB)

REP, EAPS, RRPP, RRST, … TRILL

ITU G.8032

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MPLS Transport Profile (TP)

Multiprotocol Labels Switching (MPLS) No Changes to Forwarding Plane during years

 ASIC (Application-specific integrated circuit) is an integrated circuit, customized for a particular use, rather than intended for general-purpose use: •  hardcoded for particular algorithm •  on-board RAM used only for data, not for code •  cheap in development and manufacturing •  short lifetime

 NPU (Network Processor Unit) is an programmable integrated circuit,

similar to general purpose Central Processor Units (CPU): •  has set of microcoded generic functions like pattern matching, key lookups,

queue management, etc •  can be programmed for any algorithm to execute •  more expensive than ASIC •  longer lifetime than ASIC’s one


Spanning Tree

802.1ad (QinQ) 802.1ah

(PBB)

802.1Qay (PBB-TE)

802.1aq (SPB)

REP, EAPS, RRPP, RRST, … TRILL ITU G.8032

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



T-MPLS


Spanning Tree 802.1Qay

(PBB-TE)

REP, EAPS, RRPP, RRST, …

ITU G.8032

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



T-MPLS

802.1ad (QinQ)

802.1ah (PBB)

802.1aq (SPB) TRILL

Every change in the format of the frame involves replacement of ASIC-based

“cheap” equipment


Spanning Tree

802.1ad (QinQ)

T-MPLS

802.1ah (PBB)

802.1Qay (PBB-TE)

802.1aq (SPB)

REP, EAPS, RRPP, RRST, … TRILL

ITU G.8032

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



Investment Protection

Inter-vendors compatibility  

Back Compatibility  

Scalability, Reliability  

Efficiency, Universality  

Year-to-Year Cost Reduction


Core Network 15%

Aggregation Network

35%

Access Network 50%

How often you want to reinvest third to half of the network’s cost?


Scalability

Price

Services

ME3600X low-scale pre-aggregation

ME3800X business access

ASR903 mid-scale pre-aggregation

ASR9001

ASR9006 ASR9010 ASR9022

ME3600CX business access

✔

✔

✔

Ask your dealer for special promotions!

(✔)


  Full featured MPLS LER / LSR o  MPLS L2 / L3 VPN (incl. VPLS) o  MPLS TE / FRR o  MPLS OAM

 Ethernet Virtual Connections (EVC) framework  Ethernet OAM

o  including Y.1731

 Bidirectional Forwarding Detection (BFD)  Network Health Measurement (IP SLA)   IP Routing   IP Multicast


VPLS

EoMPLS PW

EoMPLS PW

EoMPLS PW

L3 subI/F

EFPs: VLAN

(802.1q/802.1ad)

VLAN xlate 1:1, 2:2 1:2

Multipoint EVC

P2P EVC

P2P EVC

Multipoint EVC

Bridging

Bridging

Routing

EFPs: VLAN (802.1q/802.1ad)

IP / PPPoE N:1 VLANs Ambiguous VLANS (1:1)


  IOS-embedded diagnostic tool  Sender / responder based  SNMP for polling / traps for signaling  Various parameters to monitor  Supported protocols  Per class of QoS  MPLS VPN awareness

•  Delay (both round-trip and one-way) •  Jitter (directional) •  Packet loss (directional) •  Packet sequencing (packet ordering)

•  Path (per hop) •  Connectivity (directional) •  Server or website download time •  Voice quality scores

•  UDP •  ICMP

•  TCP •  Ethernet (using E-OAM)


Look for new

business models

MPLS is affordable technology

Ethernet isn’t carrier

transport technology…


Happy networking!

Дополнительные услуги операторов связи: возможности,...

Technology

cisco andor

cisco expo ukraine

sufficient revenue

shifting of revenue

cloud services

internet backbone traffic

google cloud

content ce providers