© Crown copyright Met Office

Scottish Institute For Policing ResearchAlan Motion, Business Manager Government Services

University of Dundee, 21st June 2011

Time To Adapt?Climate Impact Risk Framework

© Crown copyright Met Office

© Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright Met Office

Context – Fluvial Flood Risk

HadCM3 climate model pattern

Fluvial flood risk: % change in global flood risk

Change in flood risk

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

% c

ha

ng

e in

flo

od

ris

k

A1b 2016-2-H 2016-4-L 2016-5-L 2030-5-L 2030-2-H

Defining Risk

• “risk refers to the expected losses from a particular hazard to a specified element at risk in a particular future time period…” UNDP

• “commonly defined as the product of the probability or likelihood of occurrence of a consequence” UKCIP

• “Risk combines the magnitude of an impact with the probability of occurrence” IPCC

• We assume Risk is a combination of Hazard and Vulnerability

Hazard is a combination of the magnitude of an event and the likelihood of it occurring

Vulnerability is a combination of a given systems exposure, resilience and adaptive capacity

Adaptation

STEP 1 –REQUIREMENTS

Aim:

To clearly identify the needs and objectives and the extent of the project, including the required outcomes and expectations.

STEP 2 –Scoping

Aim:

To explore how available data sets can meet the key requirements.

STEP 3 – BASELINE CLIMATE RISK

Aim:

To assess the present risk due to the current weather and climate.

STEP 4 – FUTURE CLIMATE RISK

Aim:

To assess in detail how the key risks identified in step 1 are likely to change in the future.

UKCP09 Data

Three different emission scenarios

Seven different timeframes

25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions

STEP 5 – ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Aim:

To explore potential adaptation options associated with the key risks.

STEP 6 – OUTCOME COMMUNICATION

Aim:

To communicate the project results and outcomes.

STEP 7 – REVIEW, MONITOR AND UPDATE

Aim: To review that the

assessment has met the requirements owner/client, and identify future steps to be taken

Very briefly: West Midlands FRS Case Study

• Climate Impact & Risk assessment Framework (CIRF)

• 2 risks

• Surface water flooding (pluvial)

• Vegetation-related secondary fires

• Risk change for 2050’s using medium-high emission scenario

• WMFS provided:

• 10 year’s worth data

• 500,000 incidents

Hazards and Vulnerability

Population density Basements Susceptibility to surface water flooding

Population >65 years Blocks of flats Land cover

Rainfall days 1-10mm Rainfall days 11-20mm Rainfall days >20mm

Vul

nera

bilit

yH

azar

d

Vulnerability

Hazard

Areas with a higher incident count than explained by population density

Residual risk (after removing population density)

Areas with a lower incident count than explained by population density

Headline Outcomes?

• Strategic Deployment

• Hazard related

• Right place, right time

• Change management

• What do we need?

• Where do we need it?

• When?

• Support to business case for change