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Incentive structures matter in terrorism foresight

Many actions are incentive driven activities in a society. The social incentive structures are established by different forms of social interaction. Also terrorism can be seen as an incentive driven action. Incentives can be personal or social. Psychological motivation theories can help us to understand personal incentives. In a similar way social theories can help us to understand personal and social incentives. The nature of social interaction is always critical thing we must really understand in the context of terrorism foresight analyses. Incentives are factors (financial or non-financial) that provide a motive for a particular course of action. Incentives can also count as a reason for preferring one choice to alternatives. In this way technology foresight and terrorism foresight should focus more on analyzing the incentive structure of terrorism actions. Firstly, remunerative or financial incentives are said to exist where an agent can expect some form of material reward (money, products, services etc.) in exchange for acting in a particular way. Secondly, moral incentives are said to exist where a particular choice is widely regarded as the right thing to do. Such things are particularly admirable in a society or in a decision environment the failure to act in a certain way is condemned as indecent. Typically a person acting on a moral incentive can expect a sense of self-esteem and approval. A person acting against a moral incentive can expect a sense of guilt, condemnation or even ostracism from community. Thirdly, coercive incentives are such incentives which exist where a person can expect that the failure to act in a particular way will result in physical force being used against them (or their loved ones) by others in the community, or confiscating or destroying their possessions.

This kind of approach is indicating that technology and terrorism foresight should include systemic personal and social incentive structure analysis, where three incentive types are analyzed in relation to new technological and social innovations and systems. Many failures in the fields of technology foresight and terrorism foresight could be avoided by these kinds of systemic incentive structure analyses. Author proposes that in terrorism foresight one key challenge is to promote loyal use of technologies and social innovations. This point lead us to think structure loyalty programs, which are structured marketing efforts that reward and encourage loyal citizenship behavior – behavior which is potentially of benefit to the society.

Double Anti-terrorism Policy Framework (DATPF)

In the article double anti-terrorism policy framework (DATPF) is presented. This framework is based on recent scientific foresight and evaluation research findings and conclusions. Especially Adaptive Foresight methodology is useful methodological approach for terrorism foresight. The model is a systemic model, which includes special disincentives for terror and incentives for follow anti-terrorism behavior. New technologies include always options for incentives and disincentives. From this perspective it is important to analyze new incentive structures new technologies bring with them to agents and stakeholders.

Contact

Research Director, Dr Jari Kaivo-ojaFinland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Turku School of Economivcs (TSE) Tel. +358-50-5027030, +358-2-4814 526E-mail: jari.kaivo-oja@tse.fi

2008 INTERNATIONALCONFERENCE

Summary

Incentive structures are notoriously trickier than they might appear to people who set them up. Typically different agencies promote technological and social innovations and different people think incentive structures of a society. This aspect of tricky incentive structures and a huge gap between technological and social innovation systems and incentive structures planning should be taken more seriously in the terrorism foresight, because personal and social incentive structures really have various surprising implications for policy and decision making. In the article author proposes that double anti-terrorism policy (DATPF) framework can be a new promising research paradigm for terrorism foresight research. Key element of the research paradigm is systemic personal and social incentive structure analyses, which tell how incentives create behavior in our societies. This new terrorism foresight research paradigm can support and promote multidisciplinary research activities in the field of terrorism foresight research.

TERRORISM FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES: EVALUATING THEIR IMPACTS TERRORISM FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES: EVALUATING THEIR IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND POLICY MAKINGAND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND POLICY MAKING

Conventional TechnologyAnalysis and Technology Foresight

Incentives to useavailabletechnologies for terrorism actions

TerrorismTechnologyScenarios

Backcasting&

Forecasting

Disincentivesto use availabletechnologies for terrorismactions

AdaptiveForesight

&

FocusedTerrorismStrategies

Strategicanti-terrorismprojectportfolio

Feedback loop