© k. fedra 2000 1 risk assessment and management technological and environmental risk analysis as a...
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© K. Fedra 20001
Risk Assessment and Risk Assessment and ManagementManagement
Risk Assessment and Risk Assessment and ManagementManagement
technological and technological and environmental risk analysis environmental risk analysis as a spatial DSS exampleas a spatial DSS example
technological and technological and environmental risk analysis environmental risk analysis as a spatial DSS exampleas a spatial DSS example
© K. Fedra 20002
What is Risk ?What is Risk ?What is Risk ?What is Risk ?
thethe probability probability
thethe probability probability
© K. Fedra 20003
What is Risk ?What is Risk ?What is Risk ?What is Risk ?
thethe probability probability
of incurring a loss or injuryof incurring a loss or injury
thethe probability probability
of incurring a loss or injuryof incurring a loss or injury
© K. Fedra 20004
Different types of Risk:Different types of Risk:Different types of Risk:Different types of Risk:
• voluntary or involuntaryvoluntary or involuntary
• high-probability, low-consequencehigh-probability, low-consequence
• low-probability, high-consequencelow-probability, high-consequence
• individual or societalindividual or societal
• environmental or technologicalenvironmental or technological
• voluntary or involuntaryvoluntary or involuntary
• high-probability, low-consequencehigh-probability, low-consequence
• low-probability, high-consequencelow-probability, high-consequence
• individual or societalindividual or societal
• environmental or technologicalenvironmental or technological
© K. Fedra 20005
Different types of Risk Different types of Risk Management:Management:Different types of Risk Different types of Risk Management:Management:
• inactive (ignore it)inactive (ignore it)
• reactive (abatement)reactive (abatement)
• interactive (management)interactive (management)
• proactive (planning)proactive (planning)
• inactive (ignore it)inactive (ignore it)
• reactive (abatement)reactive (abatement)
• interactive (management)interactive (management)
• proactive (planning)proactive (planning)
© K. Fedra 20006
Different types of Risk Different types of Risk Management:Management:Different types of Risk Different types of Risk Management:Management:
• risk assessment and planningrisk assessment and planning identify, forecast, analyse, planidentify, forecast, analyse, plan
• operational risk abatementoperational risk abatement detect, diagnose, correctdetect, diagnose, correct
• risk assessment and planningrisk assessment and planning identify, forecast, analyse, planidentify, forecast, analyse, plan
• operational risk abatementoperational risk abatement detect, diagnose, correctdetect, diagnose, correct
© K. Fedra 20007
Estimating RisksEstimating RisksEstimating RisksEstimating Risks
A A GamingGaming approach: approach:
• probability of winning,probability of winning,
• amount to win,amount to win,
• probability of losing,probability of losing,
• amount to lose. amount to lose.
A A GamingGaming approach: approach:
• probability of winning,probability of winning,
• amount to win,amount to win,
• probability of losing,probability of losing,
• amount to lose. amount to lose.
© K. Fedra 20008
Estimating RisksEstimating RisksEstimating RisksEstimating Risks
Expected value:Expected value: probability of loss or damageprobability of loss or damage magnitude of the lossmagnitude of the loss
VVexpexp = p(D) * V(D) = p(D) * V(D)
Expected value:Expected value: probability of loss or damageprobability of loss or damage magnitude of the lossmagnitude of the loss
VVexpexp = p(D) * V(D) = p(D) * V(D)
© K. Fedra 20009
Estimating RisksEstimating RisksEstimating RisksEstimating Risks
Some problems:Some problems:• risk is about the unexpected: this risk is about the unexpected: this
means large inherent uncertaintiesmeans large inherent uncertainties
• low probability means little datalow probability means little data
• insurance can be expensive, insurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costs consider the opportunity costs
Some problems:Some problems:• risk is about the unexpected: this risk is about the unexpected: this
means large inherent uncertaintiesmeans large inherent uncertainties
• low probability means little datalow probability means little data
• insurance can be expensive, insurance can be expensive, consider the opportunity costs consider the opportunity costs
© K. Fedra 200010
Environmental risksEnvironmental risksEnvironmental risksEnvironmental risks
• floods and droughtsfloods and droughts• hurricanes, typhoonshurricanes, typhoons• earthquakes, tsunamisearthquakes, tsunamis• mudslides, avalanchesmudslides, avalanches• forest firesforest fires• toxic fumes (Cameroon)toxic fumes (Cameroon)• climate change, sea level riseclimate change, sea level rise
• floods and droughtsfloods and droughts• hurricanes, typhoonshurricanes, typhoons• earthquakes, tsunamisearthquakes, tsunamis• mudslides, avalanchesmudslides, avalanches• forest firesforest fires• toxic fumes (Cameroon)toxic fumes (Cameroon)• climate change, sea level riseclimate change, sea level rise
© K. Fedra 200011
Technological risksTechnological risksTechnological risksTechnological risks
• fires and explosionsfires and explosions
• toxic chemicals releasetoxic chemicals release
- from process plants- from process plants
- from transportation accidents- from transportation accidents
• oil spillsoil spills
• nuclear accidentsnuclear accidents
• fires and explosionsfires and explosions
• toxic chemicals releasetoxic chemicals release
- from process plants- from process plants
- from transportation accidents- from transportation accidents
• oil spillsoil spills
• nuclear accidentsnuclear accidents
© K. Fedra 200012
Technological risksTechnological risksTechnological risksTechnological risks
• dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)• gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)• methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)• toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)• Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)• Amocco Cadiz , Exxon ValdezAmocco Cadiz , Exxon Valdez (Oils spills)(Oils spills)
• dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)dioxin release (Seveso, 1976)• gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)gas explosion (Mexico, 1984)• methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)methylisocyanate (Bhopal, 1984)• toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)toxic spill (River Rhine, 1986)• Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)Chernobyl (reactor meltdown)• Amocco Cadiz , Exxon ValdezAmocco Cadiz , Exxon Valdez (Oils spills)(Oils spills)
© K. Fedra 200013
Industrial Safety ReviewIndustrial Safety ReviewIndustrial Safety ReviewIndustrial Safety Review
• Leadership and AdministrationLeadership and Administration• Management and TrainingManagement and Training• Job Analysis and ProceduresJob Analysis and Procedures• Emergency PreparednessEmergency Preparedness• Accident/Incident AnalysisAccident/Incident Analysis• Employee TrainingEmployee Training• Safety and Protective EquipmentSafety and Protective Equipment
• Leadership and AdministrationLeadership and Administration• Management and TrainingManagement and Training• Job Analysis and ProceduresJob Analysis and Procedures• Emergency PreparednessEmergency Preparedness• Accident/Incident AnalysisAccident/Incident Analysis• Employee TrainingEmployee Training• Safety and Protective EquipmentSafety and Protective Equipment
© K. Fedra 200014
Facility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency Response
• Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization• Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation• Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation• Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication• Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities• Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations
• Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization• Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation• Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation• Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication• Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities• Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations
© K. Fedra 200015
Facility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency Response
• Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization• Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation• Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation• Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication• Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities• Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations
• Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization• Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation• Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation• Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication• Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities• Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations
© K. Fedra 200016
Facility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency Response
Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation
• quantities, quantities, locationslocations, and storage , and storage conditions of hazardous materialsconditions of hazardous materials
• properties of materials (MSD sheets)properties of materials (MSD sheets)
• locationlocation of isolation valves of isolation valves
• fire fighting proceduresfire fighting procedures
• special handling requirementsspecial handling requirements
Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation
• quantities, quantities, locationslocations, and storage , and storage conditions of hazardous materialsconditions of hazardous materials
• properties of materials (MSD sheets)properties of materials (MSD sheets)
• locationlocation of isolation valves of isolation valves
• fire fighting proceduresfire fighting procedures
• special handling requirementsspecial handling requirements
© K. Fedra 200017
Plant risk evaluationPlant risk evaluationPlant risk evaluationPlant risk evaluation
Site data baseSite data base includes basic includes basic administrative, technical, regulatoryadministrative, technical, regulatory
and safety relevant information:and safety relevant information:
hazardous chemicalshazardous chemicals
safety response planssafety response plans
and equipmentand equipment
Site data baseSite data base includes basic includes basic administrative, technical, regulatoryadministrative, technical, regulatory
and safety relevant information:and safety relevant information:
hazardous chemicalshazardous chemicals
safety response planssafety response plans
and equipmentand equipment
© K. Fedra 200019
Site data base examplesSite data base examplesSite data base examplesSite data base examples
© K. Fedra 200020
Site data base examplesSite data base examplesSite data base examplesSite data base examples
© K. Fedra 200021
Site data base examplesSite data base examplesSite data base examplesSite data base examples
© K. Fedra 200022
Plant risk evaluationPlant risk evaluationPlant risk evaluationPlant risk evaluation
Hazardous chemicals data base Hazardous chemicals data base includes includes substance identification data (names, substance identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, chemical, and toxicological properties, chemical, and toxicological properties,
associates productionassociates production
processes and waste processes and waste
streams.streams.
Hazardous chemicals data base Hazardous chemicals data base includes includes substance identification data (names, substance identification data (names, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, synonyms, CAS, UN number), physical, chemical, and toxicological properties, chemical, and toxicological properties,
associates productionassociates production
processes and waste processes and waste
streams.streams.
© K. Fedra 200023
Hazardous chemicals DB Hazardous chemicals DB Hazardous chemicals DB Hazardous chemicals DB
© K. Fedra 200025
Facility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency Response• Plant Emergency OrganizationPlant Emergency Organization• Plant Risk EvaluationPlant Risk Evaluation• Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation• Notification Procedures, CommunicationNotification Procedures, Communication• Emergency Equipment and FacilitiesEmergency Equipment and Facilities• Procedure for return to normal operationsProcedure for return to normal operations
© K. Fedra 200026
Facility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency ResponseFacility Emergency Response
Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation• hazardous materials at nearby plantshazardous materials at nearby plants• nearby residences, population centers nearby residences, population centers
including schools, hospitals, nursing including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures)homes (evacuation procedures)
• contacts at other sites (names, phone)contacts at other sites (names, phone)• notification proceduresnotification procedures
Area Risk EvaluationArea Risk Evaluation• hazardous materials at nearby plantshazardous materials at nearby plants• nearby residences, population centers nearby residences, population centers
including schools, hospitals, nursing including schools, hospitals, nursing homes (evacuation procedures)homes (evacuation procedures)
• contacts at other sites (names, phone)contacts at other sites (names, phone)• notification proceduresnotification procedures
© K. Fedra 200027
Hazards AnalysisHazards AnalysisHazards AnalysisHazards Analysis
a spatial approach:a spatial approach:
• evaluates the vulnerability of a evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical areageographical area, its population , its population and environment to technological and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or release from process plants or transportation accidents) transportation accidents)
a spatial approach:a spatial approach:
• evaluates the vulnerability of a evaluates the vulnerability of a geographical areageographical area, its population , its population and environment to technological and environment to technological risks (e.g., hazardous materials risks (e.g., hazardous materials release from process plants or release from process plants or transportation accidents) transportation accidents)
© K. Fedra 200028
Hazards Analysis Hazards Analysis ChecklistChecklistHazards Analysis Hazards Analysis ChecklistChecklist
Has a hazards analysis been Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? completed for this area ?
When was it last updated ?When was it last updated ?Does the analysis include the Does the analysis include the
location, type, and amount of location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within processed, stored, disposed within the area ?the area ?
Has a hazards analysis been Has a hazards analysis been completed for this area ? completed for this area ?
When was it last updated ?When was it last updated ?Does the analysis include the Does the analysis include the
location, type, and amount of location, type, and amount of hazardous materials manufactured, hazardous materials manufactured, processed, stored, disposed within processed, stored, disposed within the area ?the area ?
© K. Fedra 200029
Hazards Analysis Hazards Analysis ChecklistChecklistHazards Analysis Hazards Analysis ChecklistChecklist
Does it include transportation Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ?routes of hazardous materials ?
Have areas of public health Have areas of public health concern be identified ?concern be identified ?
Have sensitive environmental Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ?areas been identified ?
Does it include transportation Does it include transportation routes of hazardous materials ?routes of hazardous materials ?
Have areas of public health Have areas of public health concern be identified ?concern be identified ?
Have sensitive environmental Have sensitive environmental areas been identified ?areas been identified ?
© K. Fedra 200030
Hazards Analysis Hazards Analysis ChecklistChecklistHazards Analysis Hazards Analysis ChecklistChecklist
Have historical data on accidents Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ?been collected and analyzed ?
Have levels of vulnerability been Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ?identified for different areas ?
Are environmentally sensitive areas Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in and population centers included in plant and transportation risk plant and transportation risk assessment ?assessment ?
Have historical data on accidents Have historical data on accidents been collected and analyzed ?been collected and analyzed ?
Have levels of vulnerability been Have levels of vulnerability been identified for different areas ?identified for different areas ?
Are environmentally sensitive areas Are environmentally sensitive areas and population centers included in and population centers included in plant and transportation risk plant and transportation risk assessment ?assessment ?
© K. Fedra 200031
Application examples:Application examples:Application examples:Application examples:
• simulation of atmospheric dispersion of simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents.process plant accidents.
• uses local geographical, land use, and uses local geographical, land use, and
and population data to and population data to
estimate exposure andestimate exposure and
simulate evacuation simulate evacuation
plans.plans.
• simulation of atmospheric dispersion of simulation of atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances from transportation or toxic substances from transportation or process plant accidents.process plant accidents.
• uses local geographical, land use, and uses local geographical, land use, and
and population data to and population data to
estimate exposure andestimate exposure and
simulate evacuation simulate evacuation
plans.plans.
© K. Fedra 200033
Application examples:Application examples:Application examples:Application examples:
• simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.• uses chemical properties together with uses chemical properties together with
hydrological data, estimates the hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along theconcentration of the chemical along the
river and over time.river and over time. Can use an embeddedCan use an embedded expert system toexpert system to estimate environmentalestimate environmental damage.damage.
• simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.simulation of aquatic spills of toxics.• uses chemical properties together with uses chemical properties together with
hydrological data, estimates the hydrological data, estimates the concentration of the chemical along theconcentration of the chemical along the
river and over time.river and over time. Can use an embeddedCan use an embedded expert system toexpert system to estimate environmentalestimate environmental damage.damage.
© K. Fedra 200035
Risk Planning: Risk Planning: Regulatory frameworksRegulatory frameworksRisk Planning: Risk Planning: Regulatory frameworksRegulatory frameworks
• safety audits, regular inspectionssafety audits, regular inspections• chemicals registrychemicals registry• waste managementwaste management• transportationtransportation safetysafety• emergencyemergency planningplanning• zoningzoning
• safety audits, regular inspectionssafety audits, regular inspections• chemicals registrychemicals registry• waste managementwaste management• transportationtransportation safetysafety• emergencyemergency planningplanning• zoningzoning
© K. Fedra 200036
Regulatory frameworksRegulatory frameworksRegulatory frameworksRegulatory frameworks
European Union:European Union:
The Directive on Major Accident The Directive on Major Accident
Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities
(Seveso Directive)(Seveso Directive)Council Directive of June 24, 1982 (82/501/EEC), Council Directive of June 24, 1982 (82/501/EEC),
Official Journal of the European Communities, Official Journal of the European Communities, L230, Vol.25, August 5, 1982.L230, Vol.25, August 5, 1982.
European Union:European Union:
The Directive on Major Accident The Directive on Major Accident
Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities
(Seveso Directive)(Seveso Directive)Council Directive of June 24, 1982 (82/501/EEC), Council Directive of June 24, 1982 (82/501/EEC),
Official Journal of the European Communities, Official Journal of the European Communities, L230, Vol.25, August 5, 1982.L230, Vol.25, August 5, 1982.
© K. Fedra 200037
Seveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso Directive
Background:Background:
industrial accidents industrial accidents (Seveso, Flixborough)(Seveso, Flixborough)
characterised by a lack of information characterised by a lack of information (substances and amounts involved) by (substances and amounts involved) by the local authorities, and lack of the local authorities, and lack of emergency planning.emergency planning.
Background:Background:
industrial accidents industrial accidents (Seveso, Flixborough)(Seveso, Flixborough)
characterised by a lack of information characterised by a lack of information (substances and amounts involved) by (substances and amounts involved) by the local authorities, and lack of the local authorities, and lack of emergency planning.emergency planning.
© K. Fedra 200038
Seveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso Directive
Objective:Objective:
improve the generation and control of improve the generation and control of correct correct information information flow among the flow among the actors in the risk management actors in the risk management procedure (industrial activities that procedure (industrial activities that process or store hazardous materials).process or store hazardous materials).
Objective:Objective:
improve the generation and control of improve the generation and control of correct correct information information flow among the flow among the actors in the risk management actors in the risk management procedure (industrial activities that procedure (industrial activities that process or store hazardous materials).process or store hazardous materials).
© K. Fedra 200039
Seveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso Directive
Provisions:Provisions:• states must appoint a competent authoritystates must appoint a competent authority
• operators must prove to the CA operators must prove to the CA
– major hazards have been identifiedmajor hazards have been identified
– safety measures have been taken to safety measures have been taken to prevent accidentsprevent accidents
Provisions:Provisions:• states must appoint a competent authoritystates must appoint a competent authority
• operators must prove to the CA operators must prove to the CA
– major hazards have been identifiedmajor hazards have been identified
– safety measures have been taken to safety measures have been taken to prevent accidentsprevent accidents
© K. Fedra 200040
Seveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso Directive
when hazardous substance inventories when hazardous substance inventories exceed thresholds:exceed thresholds:
• operator provides CA with Safety Reportoperator provides CA with Safety Report
• prepares internal emergency planprepares internal emergency plan
• provides information to CA for off-site provides information to CA for off-site emergency planemergency plan
• CA is notified of any major modificationCA is notified of any major modification
when hazardous substance inventories when hazardous substance inventories exceed thresholds:exceed thresholds:
• operator provides CA with Safety Reportoperator provides CA with Safety Report
• prepares internal emergency planprepares internal emergency plan
• provides information to CA for off-site provides information to CA for off-site emergency planemergency plan
• CA is notified of any major modificationCA is notified of any major modification
© K. Fedra 200041
Seveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso DirectiveSeveso Directive
• CA provides for external emergency CA provides for external emergency planningplanning
• states ensure that people potentially states ensure that people potentially affected by an accidents are actively affected by an accidents are actively informed on safety measuresinformed on safety measures
• operators report any major accidentoperators report any major accident
• states notify the Commissionstates notify the Commission
• Commission keeps a register of accidentsCommission keeps a register of accidents
• CA provides for external emergency CA provides for external emergency planningplanning
• states ensure that people potentially states ensure that people potentially affected by an accidents are actively affected by an accidents are actively informed on safety measuresinformed on safety measures
• operators report any major accidentoperators report any major accident
• states notify the Commissionstates notify the Commission
• Commission keeps a register of accidentsCommission keeps a register of accidents
© K. Fedra 200042
Risk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk Assessment
Zoning andZoning and
land-useland-use
planningplanning
based onbased on
externalexternal
safetysafety
report.report.
Zoning andZoning and
land-useland-use
planningplanning
based onbased on
externalexternal
safetysafety
report.report.
© K. Fedra 200043
Risk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk Assessment
Risk contours aroundRisk contours arounda plant location:a plant location:
1010-6-6 events/year events/year unacceptableunacceptable individual riskindividual risk
1010-8 -8 events/yearevents/year negligible risknegligible risk
Risk contours aroundRisk contours arounda plant location:a plant location:
1010-6-6 events/year events/year unacceptableunacceptable individual riskindividual risk
1010-8 -8 events/yearevents/year negligible risknegligible risk
© K. Fedra 200044
Risk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk Assessment
Risk levels Risk levels (the Dutch perspective)(the Dutch perspective)
1010-4-4 events/year: voluntarily accepted in events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily lifedaily life
1010-5 -5 events/year: maximum tolerableevents/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risktotal involuntary risk
1010-6-6 events/year: unacceptable involuntary events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single sourcefrom a single source
1010-8 -8 events/year: negligible riskevents/year: negligible risk
Risk levels Risk levels (the Dutch perspective)(the Dutch perspective)
1010-4-4 events/year: voluntarily accepted in events/year: voluntarily accepted in daily lifedaily life
1010-5 -5 events/year: maximum tolerableevents/year: maximum tolerable total involuntary risktotal involuntary risk
1010-6-6 events/year: unacceptable involuntary events/year: unacceptable involuntary from a single sourcefrom a single source
1010-8 -8 events/year: negligible riskevents/year: negligible risk
© K. Fedra 200045
Risk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedure
• Hazard identificationHazard identification
• Accident frequency and Accident frequency and consequence estimationconsequence estimation
• Risk calculationRisk calculation
• Risk reduction and acceptabilityRisk reduction and acceptability
• Hazard identificationHazard identification
• Accident frequency and Accident frequency and consequence estimationconsequence estimation
• Risk calculationRisk calculation
• Risk reduction and acceptabilityRisk reduction and acceptability
© K. Fedra 200046
Risk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedure
Hazard Identification (HAZID)Hazard Identification (HAZID)• Process/system checklistProcess/system checklist
• Safety reviewSafety review
• Preliminary Hazard AnalysisPreliminary Hazard Analysis
• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)
• Systematic Identification of Release PointsSystematic Identification of Release Points
Hazard Identification (HAZID)Hazard Identification (HAZID)• Process/system checklistProcess/system checklist
• Safety reviewSafety review
• Preliminary Hazard AnalysisPreliminary Hazard Analysis
• Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP)
• Systematic Identification of Release PointsSystematic Identification of Release Points
© K. Fedra 200047
Risk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedure
Frequency and Consequence Frequency and Consequence Estimation:Estimation:
• Fault treeFault tree
• Event treeEvent tree
• Cause Consequence DiagramCause Consequence Diagram
• Generic Reliability DatabaseGeneric Reliability Database
Frequency and Consequence Frequency and Consequence Estimation:Estimation:
• Fault treeFault tree
• Event treeEvent tree
• Cause Consequence DiagramCause Consequence Diagram
• Generic Reliability DatabaseGeneric Reliability Database
© K. Fedra 200048
Risk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedure
Fault tree analysis: run-away Fault tree analysis: run-away reaction due to cooling failurereaction due to cooling failure
Fault tree analysis: run-away Fault tree analysis: run-away reaction due to cooling failurereaction due to cooling failure
© K. Fedra 200049
Risk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedure
Failure of:Failure of:
heating systemheating system
sensorsensor
shutdown systemshutdown system
cooling systemcooling system
safety valvesafety valve
Failure of:Failure of:
heating systemheating system
sensorsensor
shutdown systemshutdown system
cooling systemcooling system
safety valvesafety valve
© K. Fedra 200050
Risk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedure
Event tree: traces possible events fromEvent tree: traces possible events from
loss of cooling loss of cooling to: to: safe shutdownsafe shutdown
discharge fromdischarge from safety valvesafety valve
explosionexplosion
Event tree: traces possible events fromEvent tree: traces possible events from
loss of cooling loss of cooling to: to: safe shutdownsafe shutdown
discharge fromdischarge from safety valvesafety valve
explosionexplosion
© K. Fedra 200051
Risk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedure
Every event Every event AA has possible outcome has possible outcome
C C (with probability: p) and (with probability: p) and B B (1-p)(1-p)
dependingdepending
on failureon failure
probabilityprobability
Every event Every event AA has possible outcome has possible outcome
C C (with probability: p) and (with probability: p) and B B (1-p)(1-p)
dependingdepending
on failureon failure
probabilityprobability
© K. Fedra 200052
Risk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedureRisk analysis procedure
Consequences:Consequences:• discharge (flow, evaporation)discharge (flow, evaporation)• fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireballfire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball• explosion and release:explosion and release:
– unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE)unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE)– boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE)boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE)– physical explosionphysical explosion– runaway reaction explosionrunaway reaction explosion– dust gas/dust mixture explosiondust gas/dust mixture explosion
Consequences:Consequences:• discharge (flow, evaporation)discharge (flow, evaporation)• fire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireballfire: jet, pool/tank, flash, fireball• explosion and release:explosion and release:
– unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE)unconfined vapor cloud (UVCE)– boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE)boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE)– physical explosionphysical explosion– runaway reaction explosionrunaway reaction explosion– dust gas/dust mixture explosiondust gas/dust mixture explosion