Vol. LXXVI No 244 21 JUNE 2020 Sene 14 , 2012 Price Birr 5.75

Let us unite with love; surpass in forgiveness!

Page 8

A united Ethiopia can overcome any obstacle!

Horticulture exporters’ optimist

amid COVID-19

Page 3

Page 2 Page 2

Dam construction

well in progress

“Egypt has untouched underground water in Jabal

Al-Uweinat Mountain and surrounding in Egypt which

is a huge potential to feed Egypt for a hundred of years.

GERD never becomes a threat for water shortage or

security to Egypt, and the concerns by Egypt are not

real threats.”Egyptian famous scientist and

geologist Farouk Al Baz told the MBC Arabic You Tube

channel

Egypt’s obsolete Nile saga

Page 2

Attorney General plant seedlings

near Sebeta

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SundayERALD

SundayThe Ethiopianዘ

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Page 23Page 19

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Forestry development:

Feasible way for economic

rejuvenation, climate change

skirmishing

Global Economy in the eyes of COVID-19 era

Leader of the Nation:

NazarbayevPage 20

Delay of renovating invaluable heritage instigates concern of

collapse

The Battle of BenishangulPage 14

Page 16

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 2

Herald Exclusives

Attorney General plants seedlings near SebetaADDIS ABABA (ENA) - The Attorney General along with staff from six institutions planted the seedlings in the Addis Ababa area called Debel Mountain near the town of Sebeta.

The site was abandoned six years ago and has been recovering with a continuous plantation campaign by the Oromia Development Association. “Thus the deserted place has been turned green.”

Some 60,000 seedlings have been planted in the area so far, and more than 1,000 seedlings have been planted today.

Attorney General Adanech Abebe, who launched the program today, said that green development if crucial to sustainable development. We should all stride for it.’

Deforestation has been affected the area due to the soil erosion, after the re-

emergence of plants since the last six years locals are recognizing the benefits of forests and taking care of them, she said.

She said seedlings should not only be planted but that they should be nurtured.

Among the respective institution of the Atorney General, the Federal Prisons Commission has promised to build a plants protection center in the area.

Phot

o: E

NA

BY HAFTU GEBREZGABIHER

ADDIS ABABA - The Ethiopian Horticulture Producer Exporters Association (EHPEA) said that there is adequate exportable produce amid the COVID-19 pandemic while expressing concern over logistics service limitation and shortage of cold stores to transport perishable produce to port of Djibouti.

In an exclusive interview with the Ethiopian Press Agency, Director of the Association Tewedros Zewde noted that the horticulture sector that has created employment to over 200,000 citizens, 80 percent of whom women, still sees optimism.

Stating the opportunities that Ethiopia can seize, the Director stressed Ethiopia is close to a big potential market, the Middle East region. In addition, neighboring Somalia and Djibouti can have Ethiopian produce right from here.

Over 18 agro-climatic conditions suitable for the production of any kind of horticulture product are among the comparative advantages that the country enjoys, he said.

“The other is that the population size in the Middle East and European countries is increasing with their diet pattern goes

toward fruits and vegetables.”

The Ethiopian Airlines freight services and increasing urbanization are also some of the best opportunities to the sector. The

best policy package and incentives as well encourages the sector’s profitability and sustainability, he added.

Established in 2002, the Ethiopian

Horticulture exporters’ optimist amid COVID-19 •Complains logistics service limitation, cold stores shortage

Horticulture Producer Exporters Association (EHPEA) is a horticultural association based in Ethiopia set to promote the export of horticulture and floriculture.

BY GENET FEKADE

ADDIS ABABA - The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been promptly on progress and reached at a promising level right this time, said Project Manager Engineer Kifle Horo.

According to the project manager, the construction has been well intensifying this year than ever before. It is being constructed with citizen’s determined and diligent state of mind fully exploiting their energy at every level of the construction. For instance, the civil engineering work reaches about 87 percent, metal works about 31 percent and the electromechanical turbine and generator works have reached 45 percent. The full project performance has also registered a 74 percent record.

The metal works has been seriously undertaken right now as it shows a sluggish pace, and even other works such civil contractors’ engagements and the generator turbine, which will be planted next, are well focused on.

“Not only will water filling start this year but the overall performance of the construction is well enforced,” adding said the manager, “The filling of water is necessary because it is going to increase the middle part of the dam from 525 meter to 560 which can hold 4.9 billion cubic meter water. Next year, the dam will have 590 meters height, which can hold 16.5 cubic meter water.”

Dam construction well in progress

PAGE 3 THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

Herald Exclusives

Egypt’s obsolete Nile sagaBY STAFF REPORTER

Egypt is the “Gift of the Nile” is now a cli-ché attributed to Greek historian Herodo-tus, believed to have been first introduced 450 BC, making little or no apt sense to current and future generations in the Nile River Basin.

Not only has the obsolete catch-phrase has been in use to confuse the modern Egyptian generation, the cultivation of such mindset has also been obstructing mutual interde-pendence among the countries of the Nile River basin, with Egypt and its politicians resorting to aggressing considering the wa-ters of the Nile as their exclusive resource.

But had Herodotus had the opportunity to see the current reality, he might have fig-ured out that the last downstream country, Egypt, has become an existential threat to origins of the Nile, while it should have played a lead goose effect in the develop-ment of the countries.

With expanding desertification, and climat-ic variability, not to mention population ex-plosion, unilateral and exclusionary water use makes no sense and is a complete recipe to conflict between and among countries. Not all civilizations did solely depended on rivers, despite the remarkable river valley civilizations. People used technology to uti-lize aquifers.

“The oldest known well was discovered in Atlit Yam, Israel. Archaeologists dated the well back to 8100-7500. Neolithic wells

found in Europe were wood-lined and date from the Iron Age,” according to a certain source.

But now technological sophistication makes the use of groundwater easy, with the bulk of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System providing Egypt water reserve last-ing over 500 years while filtering seawater being another alternative in addition to the waters of the Nile.

Egypt; however, aspires to continue as a hydraulic empire, by confusing and misin-forming the international community as its lone source of water is the Nile. Now that Ethiopia is entangled with internal political skirmishes, Egypt seems to roll its sleeves to take advantage in one way or another.

No matter what, Ethiopians, as history al-ready recorded in its golden ink, are one

and the same when it comes to their sover-eignty. And there is unwavering consensus as the Nile is a trans-boundary resource that Ethiopia has all the right to use its waters causing no significant harm to downstream countries.

The ambition to construct GERD has not come out of a selfish interest as it has been true to Egypt when constructed the water wasting Toshka Project. Ethiopians have never thought for a second to build the Dam at the expense of others.

As it was recently mentioned by Prime Minister Abiy, the construction of GERD is aimed at speeding up Ethiopian economic development without affecting its neigh-bors, as well as any of the riparian coun-tries.

According to him, “Upon completion,

GERD has pivotal importance not only to Egypt and Sudan but also to the entire con-tinent of Africa.”

The speech of Prime Minister Abiy is a good indication that disproves Cairo`s claim that the Dam will affect the interest of other downstream countries.

Completing the dam is the best and the right choice Ethiopia has now. The over 50 million of its people who live off the grid system should see light in the night time, millions of women and girls who trek long distances to collect firewood must switch electric stoves for cooling and the like.

Ethiopia had been trying all its level best to make poverty history. However, its ambi-tion could not come to reality with the cur-rent energy deficit.

As it was mentioned by Prime Minister Abiy, “More than 50 million Ethiopians do not have access to electricity while 92 percent of Egyptians enjoy access to elec-tricity. To this day, Ethiopian mothers still carry firewood at their back. Our need is only one and one – to develop and prosper and to extricate our people from the tight grip of poverty.”

Ethiopia is the gift and giver of Nile. As the source of more than 86 percent of Nile wa-ters, the country has both legal and moral rights to use the river Nile to feed its peo-ple. In this regard, Ethiopia`s firm stance on finalizing GERD will not be hampered by Cairo`s propaganda or its tricky moves.

12th grader ascertains automatic hand alarm for COVID defense

BY HENOK TIBEBU

ADDIS ABABA - A twelve grader natural science student has created an automatic hand alarm that helps people prevent themselves from touching their faces which in turn enables them to well protect from COVID-19 transmission.

A student named Ezedin Kemal created the technology and has contributed his share to the fight against the rising COVID-19 pandemic in the country. According to him, the hand alarm makes sound or vibrates whenever the person who wants to move his/her hand towards their face.

“It is a technology that helps to prevent COVID-19 via giving sound or vibration so as to remind people not to touch their noses, mouths or eyes and not to move palm close to their face. If we feel that the sound may disturb other people, we can make it on vibration mode,” said Ezedin.

He said, “STEM power, an international organization working on science, technology, engineering and mathematics and practical education in Ethiopia and beyond, has provided me with the necessary equipment to foster my innovation.” Currently,

Ezedin is in a position of producing some fifty pieces of the automatic hand alarm as the organization has provided him with the required materials. “Now we have almost prepared well to produce the technology. Each piece costs 240 Birr for production.”

Talking to The Ethiopian Herald, Ezedin said that he has referred a research conducted by a governmental company abroad about how many times people would touch their faces within an hour. “The experiment was carried out on 26 individuals and the finding reveals that one person would try to touch his/her face more than 23 times in an hour.” Hence, this technology is very significant to help people protect themselves by reminding them not to touch their faces in order to prevent themselves from COVID-19.

STEM power in collaboration with the Ministry of Education (MoE) recently opened a fab lab (Fabrication Laboratory), which aims at promoting students to create and exhibit their different innovative technological projects.

Tesfaye Shiferaw an employee at STEM power also said the Organization has established over thirty STEM centers throughout the country. The STEM centers give training for elementary and

high school students and promote their innovative engagements. According to him, the major objective of this initiative

is to inspire the future scientists of Ethiopia with the motto “INSIDE EVERY CHILD is a scientist”.

PAGE 7 THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

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The Ethiopian HeraldEstablished in 1943

Published daily except MondaysBy The Ethiopian Press Agency

Deputy- Editor-in- chiefAlem HailuEmail- alemhailu2007@gmail.comEditors/ReportersTesgaye HagosHaftu GebrezgabiherMehari BeyeneHenok TibebuAmbo MekasaGenet FekadeMussa Mohammed Fasika BerhaneContributersMulugeta Gudeta Tekelebirhan Gebre michealGetachew MinasJoseph SebokaSolomon Wassihun

See Why people’s ... page 24

Editor's Note: The views entertained in this article do not necessarily reflect

the stance of The Ethiopian Herald

“If objects speak out, Nile itself will reveal who is right.”

Why people’s empowerment is the way out of the present political disputes?

BY MULUEGTA GUDETA

The pretty major source of the Nile waters, Ethiopia, has long been entangled with poverty and its myriads of manifestations while others like Egypt with inconsequential contribution has done away with socio-economic paucity and snag. Years have lapsed, in Ethiopia, with no potential benefit reaped out of the golden waters for various reasons. Now it is time to sufficiently feed citizens, quench thirst and expand a range of technological advancements with arduous effort not at the expense of others akin to what Egypt has drumming a trumpet merely reflecting its lifelong threat and self-centered mentality.

Setting Ethiopia’s cooperation and fair utilization invitation aside, Egypt has carried out double standard approach: persisting negotiation on the one hand, accusing Ethiopia of using its natural rights on the other.

What does it mean? In the era of modern civilization where everything is being resolved via common understanding and coexistence, undertaking a game of ‘hide and seek’ is being quite fool. No matter how long, conscientious and monotonous Ethiopia’s discussion with Egypt about the Nile waters is, as the latter approaches shipping diabolic spirit; the former will undoubtedly be triumphant over the litigation. Let alone the international community and states individually, the non-living matter the river which hosts the Dam can witness to whom the principal right holder.

Things are getting tougher and tougher these days following Egypt’s inflexible, hesitant and egotistic deportment and pointless accusation against Ethiopia of

properly exploiting its priceless resource, the river Abay. Ethiopia’s right over the Nile Waters could by no means be after quenching Egypt’s demands. No remnants. No leftovers. Who is going to take the principal share, Egypt? If you reply to it—Ethiopia but without imposing significant harm on others like me, you are right. However, if you reply to the question saying, it is I myself employing my fictions colonial right over the Nile—you are pretty excellently wrong. Change your mind.

Ethiopians have awakened and are determined than ever before to smash out poverty and its accomplices from their soil. Egypt shall be well aware of this unwavering fact and the call for dramatic change and prosperity. Combating poverty and enjoying development and advancement is the call of the day. It can be made true via amalgamating synergy and performing activities in good faith for the common benefit. Yes, Ethiopia is pursuing in this time-demanding fashion. However, its sisterly nation is not in a position to do so. Instead it drums war trumpet day in and day out for a mere reason of having historic right. This obviously leads nowhere as the truth is in the Nile water itself.

Ethiopia’s natural right alleges the foremost portion of the Nile waters but it doesn’t clams the leftovers as Egypt always declares. If Ethiopia receives the remnants of the water, where is its sovereign natural right over the Nile?

Unequivocally, the only option for Egypt to have a prosperous future and good reputation in Eastern Africa is establishing firm cooperation with its neighbor—Ethiopia. Period!

The biggest and most important item on the reformist agenda of the transitional government in Ethiopia over the last nearly two years was the achievement of peace. For the last many decades, Ethiopia had been rocked by wars, ethnic conflicts, and political disputes. These conflicts were mainly triggered by the various elite groups that claimed to speak in the name of the people or the constituencies they presumably claim to represent.

The Ethiopian people never started ethnic conflicts. Only the political elites or the ruling classes were behind so many upheavals and disasters. That was why it was always easier to start a war in Ethiopia than finish it. Elite groups mobilize the masses around political agendas that are often different or opposed the aspirations of the people. That was also why it was difficult or impossible to achieve lasting peace in a country that has been at war with itself for much of the last half century.

Has the transitional government achieved one of its central objectives the reform program, mainly the restoration of peace? The answer is generally yes although there may be some reservations here and there. Yes, in the sense that the government has managed to curb the ethnic conflicts that had been engulfing the country on the eve of the formation of the transitional government and threatened to take it down the path of national suicide.

Yes, in the sense that the new government not only curbed old conflicts but also prevented new ones that were emerging under the new and relatively more liberal

political environment. It has managed to end the massive internal human displacement resulting from ethnic conflicts in various parts of the country. It has also tried to help old wounds heal by bringing together community leaders, and ordinary people in joint activities for peace and stability. The government deserves credit for these efforts although it still has some unfinished jobs to do in its remaining mandate. It would be unfair, if not dishonest, to undermine its positive achievements and exaggerate its weakness or make a mountain out of a molehill. Unfortunately, elite groups often tend to look at things through distorted lenses instead of adopting a balanced perspective.

The various political conflicts among Ethiopia’s disparate ethnic and national groups were never started by the people. They rather emanated from elite discourses that could not get resolved in an appropriate manner or could not be managed democratically. These conflicts were often caused by attitudes of the various elitist groups that claimed popular representation without popular mandate. However, one of the weakest links in the transitional government’s search for lasting peace and stability was, and still remains, its reluctance to bring together all the political elites together and involve them in a process of truth telling and political reconciliation. For this reason, Ethiopia needs to search its own version of truth and reconciliation if it wants to leave its unpleasant past behind.

True, the government has brought the issue of peace as a national political priority by setting up a ministry of peace that has positively impacted the peace and

reconciliation process in many parts of the country. The ministry is still engaged in the search for lasting peace and reconciliation by moving beyond the political and ethnic divides and by bringing about people together in a joint task of nation building based on popular consensus rather than on elitist political divisions. Elite intellectuals with divisive agendas and misplaced political ambitions are also largely responsible for the absence of principled, disciplined and democratic discourse.

However, the Ministry of Peace seems to have somewhat ignored the need for reconciliation among opposing elite groups and leaders of the various ethnic and national entities. Elite groups have generally proved unmanageable to traditional conflict resolution approaches that rely on traditional cultural values. Elite groups and the masses of people do not always have convergent political interests or agendas. Elites and the masses may speak the same language but they may have divergent interests. The political history of Ethiopia is replete with cases of political divergences rather than convergence between political elites and the masses.

Most of the time, elites and the masses do not only speak similar political languages but the former often impose their views on the latter without bothering to make their cases clear and persuade the masses about the legitimacy of the causes they

OPED THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 8

The history of Ethiopia shows time and again that whenever they stand united they can beat any enemy, any adversary. Ethiopians are now engaged in several ‘battles’ on various fronts. They need to first of all beat COVID 19. That is priority number one; only when they live can they think of the rest. Then there are the challenges of development. They are striving day and night to beat poverty, once and for all, and for that they need to leave no stone unturned in using all their resources available, at home as well as abroad. Ethiopians have decided they do not want to submit to the humiliation of poverty anymore, and be a laughing stock of any people! A country that has a history of three thousand years of civilization cannot be poor in the twenty first century!

There are signs that these relentless efforts may finally bear fruits but there are some obstacles to overcome. Ethiopia needs to unite politically because division can only serve those who wish ‘defeat’ for Ethiopia. The current debate on federalism, the controversies on building democratic institutions and the amendment to the constitution …could all wait for a while giving way to the more urgent issues, namely the health crisis and the diplomatic impasse with Nile riparian countries.

The GERD, that is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the cornerstone of Ethiopia’s renaissance, just as the name states it clearly. This may create some anxiety on Ethiopia’s adversaries but there can be no alternative to Ethiopia’s rebirth. The Ethiopia of the 1920s when it was neglected or ignored by the League of Nations in the event of a Fascist aggression cannot be repeated today! Ethiopia has learnt the hard way! Today Ethiopia will not bear any interference in its internal affairs especially with its resolve to use its waters as long as it respects the rights of other riparian countries based on established international practice. And it has solid reputation for respect of international laws and norms.

Over the centuries, Ethiopians have fought and recorded important victories against aggressors, aliens who tried to tamper with their dignity and pride, who tried to enslave them or put them under control in their own land. But they never succeeded.

Arms and ammunitions may give the impression that they constitute power or resolve problems, but it is behind the arms and ammunitions that there is the will of the people, resolving to fight until the last man, and the last soul to realize justice and reject oppression of any form.

Meanwhile, Ethiopians are also fighting to bring about a democratic system of government in replacement of the one that has been imposed on them for decades, without being consulted. They are trying to build democratic institutions that would guarantee justice, equality and dignity to all citizens. They want to defeat corruption of power, nepotism and stop the plundering

A united Ethiopia can overcome any obstacle!

of their resources by few unscrupulous political elites and their cohorts.

For centuries Ethiopians have never had a system of government that they have chosen on their free will. They never enjoyed a democratically elected government and had to settle with the force of a certain system and leadership that have little to do with their real choice.

Many historians believe that the history of Ethiopia is full of episodes of injustice, inequality and oppression based on feudal and aristocratic premises. The monarchies that thrived in the country for centuries, the aristocratic systems that endured centuries, the military strongmen who ruled the country for years, and then the guerrilla fighters who replaced them are all manifestations of lack of democratic governance. They have the common denominator that none of them was elected by the people! That is also what Ethiopians would now like to see changed.

Ethiopians are fed up with poverty and darkness and are now ready to exploit all their natural resources to advance the livelihoods of their fellow citizens. They demand that the current government do that, no matter what the costs.

In fighting the deadly COVID 19, we need to take a united stance because otherwise we will lose control over it. This is possible even with our modest means but we need the determination of everyone to take a united stance in our day to day behavior and actions. The tale that we can conduct free and fair elections under these circumstances cannot be sustained without resorting to mass suicide.

Moreover, Ethiopia is determined to use its resources and one of them is the Blue Nile

or ‘Abay’. There are no limits to the usage of this river as long as no significant harm is incurred on downstream countries who rely on the water for their livelihood.

Ethiopians realize this is a basic norm of humanity and international practice. But it must be clear that the idea that Ethiopia cannot use ‘even a drop of it’ as some chauvinist elements in Cairo would like to put it, is simply absurd and unsustainable by any standard, be it moral, legal or ethical. Ethiopia would have more than one reasons to claim full ownership of the river, and yet it has been inert in its usage for centuries due to various reasons. But today is not yesterday! Things have now changed completely.

We have reached a stage that we are ready to make intelligent use of it. This is an issue of sovereignty. The usage of one’s internal resources is just one basic expression of sovereignty. Any infringement against such principle is unacceptable.

The threats that are directed against Ethiopia’s use of the water of the Nile will not be taken lightly because they transmit the wrong message to Ethiopians. Such rhetoric is counterproductive for those who engage in it. The unity of Ethiopians can do miracles and this will be another Adwa for anyone who engages forcefully on Ethiopians. Today we are not in 1896, but if circumstances materialize, we have no choice. We can never compromise our sovereignty for which millions of our forefathers have died to preserve it. We have a moral and historical duty to maintain our dignity and independence, come what may. To die for the motherland for Ethiopians is just an honor and a source of immense pride! To live in humiliation is worse than to be buried alive! When we see that there are still some who insist living in the nineteenth century, we can only pity their state of mind! How much time has passed

since those days! It is sad that there are still some in the world at large who still believe that they can colonize people. But this is just a nightmare because no people are ready to live in subjugation and slavery in the twenty first century. This message must reach all peoples of the world, loud and clear!

Again regarding the Nile, there can be no negotiation on its usage that encroaches on Ethiopians’ sovereign rights! The facts on the ground show that no country can claim more rights on the Nile than Ethiopia. The water not only originates in its bosom but also transports lots of precious soil to downstream countries. For that, all those who benefit should rather have been grateful to Ethiopia for the unrestricted use of these resources rather than beat the drums of war against it!

The time has come for Ethiopians when circumstances have obliged them to seek the assistance of the Nile, their child, to overcome the indignity of poverty, drought and famine! Just as any other people, Ethiopians know they deserve to grow and improve their livelihood.

Finally, those who support blindly the monopoly of the Nile waters, they better open their eyes and follow facts rather than the inflammatory rhetoric they have been fed with. The stakes are high and it is not advisable to play dangerous games any more. The new voices that are heard loud across the entire world these days: ‘There can never be peace without justice!’ apply here as well.

Furthermore, our Egyptian brothers must wake up to the new reality. Gone are the days of hegemony on the Nile! For centuries they freely monopolized it, but it is now time that other countries as well exercise their innate rights to use a part of their resource.

The recent interferences of countries that have disregarded Ethiopia’s legitimate rights are vigorously rejected by Ethiopians. Ethiopians know they cannot rely on foreign assistance in asserting their national interests. The nineteen twenties have taught them a lot.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam over the Nile is an expression of such sovereignty and no nation, no bank, no power can halt it. The GERD is the result of every Ethiopian’s sweat and blood and it will soon see the light of day, irrespective of what others may wish. In it there is the saving and contribution of each and every Ethiopian citizen! In it there are the footprints of every Ethiopian! Efforts to sabotage it by drying all international funding have failed!

Ethiopians have never accepted impositions coming from abroad and they would like to convey their strongest message to the international community that they are united on this issue and ready to defend their sovereignty. Trying to divide Ethiopians or destabilize it by buying some mercenaries is an out fashioned tactic. It won’t work this time because Ethiopians are now united more than ever before

BY FITSUM GETACHEW

Arms and ammunitions may give the impression

that they constitute power or resolve problems,

but it is behind the arms and ammunitions that there is the will of the people, resolving to

fight until the last man, and the last soul to realize justice and reject oppression of any form

A country that has a history of three thousand

years of civilization cannot be poor in the twenty first century!

OPEDPAGE 9 THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

A Macro Viewpoint It has recently been reported in the news (e.g. “Ethiopis,” Amharic, May 23, 2020) that the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) has imposed cash withdrawal limits on individual and institutional bank depositors as follows: Per day Per month Individual bank depositors 200,000 birr 1,000,000 birr Institutional bank depositors 300,000 birr 2,500,000 Ethiopian domestic commercial banks are usually known for being saddled with excess liquidity (excess reserves) for lack of low-risk credit outlets. So, cash withdrawal limits such as those now imposed are not only uncommon but also practically pretty much unknown in recent memory. True, cash withdrawal limits are prescribed in pass books (account books) in writing for certain types of bank savings such as time and savings accounts, but they are rarely implemented. Indeed, cash withdrawal from banks is taken for granted so much so that the idea of deposit insurance is quite unheard –of among savers. Hence, big government –owned banks such as the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia have been considered “too big to fail” and as such deposit insurance in their case is implicit rather than explicit, which is why there are no deposit insurance corporations in Ethiopia. Now, things seem to have changed. First, we heard about there being a liquidity crunch (shortage) in the domestic banking system and as a result the NBE had to come to the rescue with some 15 billion birr lender –of- last-resort credit to banks. And now we have been informed of actual cash withdrawal limits. What is going on? Why would banks resort to unaccustomed cash withdrawal limits? At a macro level, we can say that net savings of enterprises and institutions and of individuals have decreased because of the recessionary impact of Covid-19. When revenues and profits of businesses go down, their net savings go down as well, or even financial losses may be registered forcing them to draw down on their bank balances. Individuals may have lost their jobs and therefore their incomes, which will force them to resort to their savings in the form of bank balances. Alternatively, individuals may be forced to pay more for essential goods and services such as food and house rent as a result of inflation for these basic goods, in which case resort to bank savings would be necessary.

Is the imposition of across-the- board bank cash withdrawal limits necessary?

More SpecificallyThe obvious explanation for bank cash withdrawal limits could be that banks are facing a shortage of cash in local currency. Why should this happen? Consider the following more specific reasons:• Bank cash deposits are decreasing

because of declining business revenue and profits;

• Government tax and non-tax revenues which are deposited in banks are decreasing;

• Individual and household income and therefore bank cash deposits are going down;

• Loan repayments (with interest) to banks are declining because of economic recession and long- standing bad-debt status;

• Inflation of prices of basic goods and services is forcing individuals and households to decrease their bank savings (balances);

• Decreases in foreign exchange receipts including inward remittances, tourism earnings, exports, Ethiopian Airlines receipts, etc. have decreased local currency counterpart funds deposited in banks;

• fear of bank insolvency as a result of over- exposure as in the case of CBE may have aggravated the cash withdrawal surge;

• flight into US dollars and other hard currencies may well be another plausible cause of the increase in cash withdrawals.

The Already Badly Managed State Banking System May be Buckling Under Covid -19I have repeatedly written about the shambolic manner the state banking system has been managed over the last thirty years. Already, the former Construction and Business Bank has gone bust; the Development Bank of Ethiopia is on life support; the CBE, which was once wrongly re-christened as a Policy Bank, has been forcibly over – exposed to largely unrepayable debt by dubious government development agencies (to the tune of some 500 bn birr) is now struggling to stay above water reportedly through cash injections from the NBE; the NBE itself is now regarded as no more than a currency printing press; what is mind-boggling is that those same persons who helped destroy the state banking system have been recycled to reconstruct it from the detritus of their mangling. This is likely to complicate further the already serious public confidence crisis the government banking sector has been facing.

Particularly the CBE, which is really the only state –sector bank still standing with any stature, may be confronted with deposit base and deposit inflow depletion and therefore, with cash reserve attrition, leading to negative consequences for its lending operations. More specifically, the CBE is likely to be faced with: a) current deposit inflow declines; b) deposit base depletion; c) declines in cash inflows from principal repayments and interest payments; and d) decreases in deposit inflows from hard currency conversions. All these negative factors will in all probability reduce its cash reserves on hand and with the NBE, thereby restricting its lending operations and therefore its profitability and overall financial soundness. Covid -19 is expected to hit the banking sector particularly hardGlobal trade and travel restrictions in the wake of Covid -19 have particularly been harsh on foreign exchange earnings from tourism, inward remittances, Ethiopian Airlines services, exports, foreign investment, etc. Domestic commercial banks can easily convert their foreign exchange receipts into local currency by resorting to the NBE, maintaining their net foreign exchange positions in the process. At any rate, hard currency receipts of banks are a major source of liquidity, but when these tend to dry up, a liquidity crunch is almost certainly likely to crop up. Similarly, foreign- trade and tourism-oriented domestic enterprises would face financial difficulties, negatively affecting their domestic bank balances. Concluding Remarks The major causes of the cash withdrawal limits imposed by the NBE appear to be largely prompted by the overall Covid -19- related economic recession whose effects are already being felt. Government revenues, individual and household incomes and earnings and revenues and profits of business enterprises at all scales seem to have declined, generally causing lower levels of bank deposits than bank cash withdrawals, resulting in the depletion of banks’ deposit bases. This has generally led to the erosion of the cash reserves on hand and with the central bank of banks so that some sort mechanism to stem the cash hemorrhage out of the banking system has had to be devised, and hence the recently announced cash withdrawal limits. The question is whether there are alternative mechanisms to forestall the cash reserves erosion of banks. Excessive cash withdrawals are a legitimate source of concern, but their real causes should

be properly identified. Apparently, the withdrawals are coming from the vast majority of bank depositors. They originate from large depositors. Why would such depositors need to take out so much money in cash? We understand domestic prices of cars, implicit land prices, house prices, etc. have gone up but there is no reason why such purchases cannot be settled through inter-account transfers and by cheques. So, suspected reasons for large cash withdrawals are illegal intentions to convert local currency into hard currency on the officially illegal black market or to engage in contraband cross- border trade or some sorts of money –laundering operations. Hence, some sort of restriction on cash withdrawals may be required but not necessarily on the basis of across –the –board directives. Bank deposit accounts over a certain threshold or cut-off point may be confidentially targeted without making the control measure public at all. The problem with publicized cash withdrawal limits is that it may promote the impression that the banking system is in a financial crisis, possibly encouraging panic withdrawals or even a generalized bank run. So, perhaps the more judicious option might have been to resort to the lender –of –last –resort function of the NBE with adequate access to liquidity and at the same time to exercise confidential financial intelligence surveillance on large- deposit account holders. On the whole, provided there are no second Covid -19 waves and spikes, the prospects for the world economy have improved with the phased openings of the major world economies including those of the USA, EU and China. Ethiopia’s economy which is significantly dependent on exports, imports, inward remittances, tourism and catering, foreign grants, loans, foreign direct investment, etc. is likely to benefit very substantially from the overall opening of the world economy. True, Covid -19 is apparently only beginning to rise in Ethiopia and its effects domestically are likely to continue to be increasingly more serious, but since total lockdowns are expected to do more harm than good, economic activities should continue on the basis of a strict implementation of anti- Covid 19 guidelines, including stringent social distancing, hand-washing, face-covering, diagnostic and antibody testing, quarantine, etc. protocols. At the same time, in the interest of restoring public confidence in the banking system, the across- the –board cash withdrawal limits may have to be lifted. We shall return to the more fundamental issue of overhauling the entire state banking system after, God willing, we defeat Covid -19!

BY TEKLEBIRHAN GEBREMICHAEL

PAGE 11 THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

Media Review

The Corona brief – Week 14BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN

It is like Friday the 13th in Western superstition. There is widely known Ethiopian superstition that a 1 June falling on Monday [in Ethiopian calander] is a bad omen of the upcoming time of trouble and mishap; and this year, 1 June has coincided with Monday. Though majority of the populace do not subscribe this belief, it has been a subject a lot of talk in the local media over the past two weeks.

Considering the various crisis we are facing these days, some people pose this question: what a better year for 1 June to fall on Monday than the present? Of course, this year is the period the nation is under escalating issues and others that are fermenting to explode. On e of these is the nine years long GERD dispute that appears to approach its climax.

During the past week, the Egyptian military posturing and political threat appeared to have hit a new height as its top-notch officials and personalities are blatantly expressing threats to Ethiopia beating their drum of war via the media with unprecedented zeal and intensity.

The strange and funny thing is Egyptians are beating their war drum at the same time while they are sitting for unending negotiations with Ethiopians and Sudanese, acting as being a party to the ringing of the peace bell for an equitable win-win resolution of the GERD dispute. The Egyptians are facing this paradox as they knew that the International community wants them to settle their dispute peacefully on the round table, but they also

Peace Bell, War Drumknow that they can not achieve their selfish desire on the negotiations as it is unjust, illogical and unrealistic.

The Egyptian Foreign Minister was reported last week to have said that his country’s recent negotiations with Sudan and Ethiopia had not yielded “positive results”, adding that Egypt would “consider other options, such as the UN Security Council to prevent Ethiopia from conducting the first phase of filling the dam on the coming month.

It was also to be recalled that last month the Egyptian President has called on the Egyptian armed forces to be “at the highest level of preparedness, ready to defend Egypt’s national security”. Several media analysts have related this move of the President to the impasse with Ethiopia over the GERD dispute dam.

And only a few days ago, an Egyptian billionaire, dubbed by Forbes Magazine as Egypt’s richest man, has tweeted these words against Ethiopia: “If Ethiopia doesn’t come to reason, we the Egyptian people will be the first to call for war.”

Although Egypt does not contribute a single drop to the Nile,and does not contribute a single penny for GERD construction, Ethiopia, in a spirit of the common good and neighborliness, is willing to sit with the lower riparians including Egypt to reach at a collective consensus on filling and operation of GERD. And yet the bell of peace being rung by Ethiopia appeared to be interpreted by the Egyptians as a mere request for permission or favor.

That is more or less the central point the Ethiopian Foreign Minister has been making last Tuesday in unusually stern and blunt words signifying his indignation over the Egyptians. ENA has quoted him as saying: “While we invite them for negotiation with open minds and discussing issues based on principles, Egyptians are thinking differently and to disrupt the negotiation. They do not want to give anything but want to take it all. We are negotiating in such a situation. Egypt has left no stone unturned to [sabotage] GERD right from the start of its construction. Now, they are working to defame and weaken Ethiopia.” During the same press briefing, the Foreign Minister has reportedly called upon the international community to pressure Egypt to act as per the principles of a just and equitable share of the Nile River.

As expected the latest tripartite meeting has ended last week without concrete deal. But the Ethiopian ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy sounds to be hopeful on the progress made by the negotiation that is stalled for another time. ENA has quoted the press release by the ministry as saying:“The most prominent technical issues are resolved through the negotiation. However, the full completion of the negotiation will require resolution of legal issues.”

History teaches us that only those who would fight for justice, peace and the common good shall be entitled to have the last laugh and the final decisive victory. Warmongers have always been the ultimate losers and will be relegated to obscurity at the foot n note of history. Ethiopians have witnessed it all

several times happening to those aggressors who infringed on their sovereignty in various generations. In case the Egyptian s leadership have forgotten this history lecture, they better refresh themselves, and come to grips with the reality as soon as possible.

Let me close with a quotation from a jaw-dropping open letter written last week by an Ethio-American law expert to the US Treasury Secretary. I wish that letter should have also been addressed to The Egyptian President, the AU, EU, and UN. It says: “ Ethiopia follows the wisdom of an old African saying, ‘If you can’t resolve your problems in peace, you can’t solve them in war.’ What Egypt is doing with the U.S. today to prevent Ethiopia from using its Nile waters is something it has done for over a century with Britain by undertaking a relentless and collusive diplomatic offensive. Ethiopians do not want war. But if war is imposed upon them, they will fight shoulder to shoulder until hell freezes over and the devil goes ice skating. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr said, “Those who stand up for justice will always be on the right side of history.”Let America be on the right side of history in the GERD talks!

That is how the US should act, but the reality is quite different. America has made it crystal clear last week where it stands on the matters of the GERD dispute. The tweet from the US National Security Council unequivocally has echoed Egyptians’ stance which triggered cry of outrage and condemnation from Ethiopians and supporters of the just cause of Ethiopia around the world.

Three months on, the majority of the population seems to be getting used to living in a virus conquered-world. The daily pandemic reports of the Health Minister about hundreds of new cases and multiple deaths have ceased to startle us any longer. It has already become a normal figure.

The government has introduced a prevention-focused ingenious response strategy that resolves the challenges of two conflicting imperatives; namely containing the spread of the virus and protecting the economy from freezing and collapse. Thus the government has gone this far making relatively more impressive and effective response measures without imposing a complete lockdown, unlike other African governments.

The present state of the pandemic in the nation would have been far less stressful had the public exerted more effort to support the government’s effective measures. Still, there are quite a considerable number of people that continue to flout the prevention guidelines set by emergency decree directives. A man who was frustrated by the continued disregard of the public to exercise full precautionary measures amid the rising tally of new cases said: “It appears that it is not the virus that is catching the people, rather it is the people that is catching the virus.”Even some articles being published in some newspapers seems to downplay and trivialize the potential of the virus’s lethal power and criticizing the precautionary measures being taken by the authorities as excessive measures

and more than necessary. They are inciting readers to forgo simple and reliable health guidelines that are being recommended by health experts as the basic tools to avert the danger posed by the pandemic. Some media contents that are being disseminated to the public seem to grossly politicize the enforcement of health guidelines by authorities.For instance, one article published last week reads: “The media, the authorities, the health experts, and even the police have induced war hysteria. Wearing a mask, for example, has become a display of not just civic virtue, but obedience… Is there evidence that a non-mask-wearing society will be worse off than one where masks are obligatory? It doesn’t exist. Some places require face masks; some don’t. Even the World Health Organization now disputes the need for masks. Here’s its new guideline: If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.”What do we mean by healthy? How many Africans are really healthy, with an uncompromised immune system? How many of us live a healthy lifestyle and nourish ourselves and family with a balanced diet? How many of us in Africa have the awareness and the means to have updated information about our own health status? What is wrong with taking the simple preventive measure like wearing a face mask, instead of taking chances on a lethal virus whose nature is not fully known and changing with time.? Shouldn’t Africa learn from the US

and Brazil on the consequence of trivializing the threat of COVID 19? What is the secret of success of the Chinese and Koreans in fighting the virus?The writer of that article should have been at least appreciative of two points: first, all government authorities and law enforcement agents themselves are abiding by the health guidelines. They did not just impose the law on the public. Second, face masks wearing and hand washing that is being practiced by the public following the enforcement of the health guidelines would at least help mitigating the transmission of communicable diseases from flu to gut infections The pandemic has continued spreading at the community level during the past week. The pace of the spread does appear to be worse than the previous week, but not much worse as we feared. Considering the midweek [Wednesdays] as the margin line, we see that the gradient in the coronavirus curve during the past week has been 50%, which is lower than that of the previous week, 68.6%. Also, the rate of the rise of new cases has decreased to about 23% from what it has been in the previous week,35%. And yet, the number of new cases recorded in the past week is still larger than the week before by 253 cases. The tally of new cases recorded in the past week was the largest ever recorded,1253. The corresponding figure for the week before was 1020. More importantly, the past week has been even worse than the previous in terms of the fatalities

record .Thus it is the worst of all weeks we have been through, being the deadliest week so far of the pandemic in Ethiopia. The number of fatalities recorded in the past week is [28]. The corresponding figure for the week before was only 18. This underpins the assertion that Ethiopia is yet on the defensive position in her long war against COVID 19. One thing that can be considered as solace is the number of cases in critical condition did not exhibit spike as it did in the week before. It even decreased slightly. This would give us enough reason to predict that the death toll in this week would be lower than the past week. Furthermore, the additional number of active cases recorded in the past week [777] has decreased by about 8% compared to the week before. As of last Wednesday, the total number of active cases has been 2845. As of last Thursday, Ethiopia, compared to its neighbors, has remained in the second position next to Sudan in recording the largest number of active cases. However, in terms of the death toll, Ethiopia recorded fewer case fatalities than Sudan, Kenya, and Somalia. The more logical parameter, the COVID Death per Million Population, shows that Ethiopia has the least number next to Eritrea. But in terms of the degree of the virus spread among the population, Ethiopia is the least affected country compared to all of its neighbors including Eritrea, as the parameter of Cases per a Million Population for Ethiopia currently shows the least figure.

BY SOLOMON WASSIHUN

The Executive THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 12

BY MENGESHA AMARE

Forestry development and research has long been deprived of due attention and care as it was integrated into the dominant agricultural development sector. To know the reality on the ground, at what level it is right now, recently, The Ethiopian Herald had a stay with Dr. Teshome Tesema, Adviser to the Director General in Ethiopian Environment and Forest Research Institute (EEFRI). He touched up on a range of ideas with regard to forestry development, research green initiative and their association with national green economy in the Horn in general and in Ethiopia in particular.

Enjoy reading!

EH: The institute you are working for in brief

Dr. Teshome: EEFRI is a nationally mandated public research institution whose mission is importing and adapting relevant technologies, conducting and coordinating research in the areas of environment, forestry and climate change, and disseminating suitable technologies and information for end users and stakeholders.

The Ethiopian Herald (EH): It is well known that forest is of paramount importance in keeping nature balance and the economic, social and biodiversity well being. However, Ethiopia’s forest coverage is dwindled to a very minimal percentage from 40 to 45% two decades back. Could you please say something about the present forest coverage status in our country?

Dr. Teshome: Yes, forests are the major components of the natural resources of the planet over in general and of our country in particular. Different documents indicate that a large part of Ethiopia was once extensively covered by diverse and dense forest resources. Some documents claim that in the late nineteenth century, about thirty to forty percent of the country was covered with forests. However, the forest coverage has undergone substantial changes over the years due to innumerable factors. Indiscriminate clearing of the forest for cultivation, cattle grazing, firewood collection and overexploitation without replacement have reduced the great forest areas. The high rate of deforestation and the ruthless exploitation of forest have also resulted in the decline of the forest coverage.

With regard to the present forest coverage, different inventories and assessments of forest resources have been carried out and documented by different institutions. Their estimation of the coverage of forest resources varies due to the respective definition that they have given to a forest. Nowadays a national and official definition has been given for a forest. For a forest to be registered as a forest, it should have an area of ≥ 0.5 ha, height ≥ 2m, Canopy cover

Forestry development: Feasible way for economic rejuvenation, climate change skirmishing

≥ 20%, (MEFCC, Feb. 2015). According to MEFCC, 2016, (the then Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change), the forest cover of Ethiopia was 15.5%. This includes natural forests, plantation forests, wood lands, and bamboo forests. Now, we are in 2020, we need to ask the updated information from Environment, Forest and Climate Change Commission (EFCCC), the currently responsible institution for such data. What I know is EFCCC was working to make the forest coverage 20% by 2020.

EH: It is well known that forest is of paramount importance in keeping nature balance and the economic, social and biodiversity well being. Hence, at what level is it (Forestry development and research undertaking) in Ethiopia right now?

Dr. Teshome: Yes, trees and forests contribute in many ways a wealth of products and services that may be used to improve the well-being of the society. Trees and forests besides their direct contribution to the national economy through wood and non-wood products, they contribute significantly to various sectors of the national economy such as energy, agriculture, food, industry, health, environment, tourism and the likes. They are critical to the welfare of the environment, economy, and population and have multiple values the large portion of which cannot be provided by other kinds of land use. They are sources of food, feed, fuel, construction and industrial wood, gums, resins, medicine and livelihood to millions of people and sequester carbon thereby contributing

to adaptation and mitigation of climate change. They help combat land degradation and desertification as well as rehabilitation of degraded lands and can serve as stewards to greatly minimize the risks of silting up of hydroelectric dams. Forests, indeed, have a significant contribution to food security, poverty reduction, and to the on-going effort to assure economic growth and social transformation.

In order for the society to benefit from the above mentioned attributes of trees and forests, the government has formulated different policies and strategies that could help and guide the actions on the ground. The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy, the forest policy, forest proclamation, biodiversity policy, and the environment policy are some of the policies and strategies that have been formulated and being implemented. Accordingly, the government based on the above mentioned policies, in collaboration with different actors (NGOs, civic societies, CBOs, private sector, etc.) and through its respective federal and regional institutions has been planning and implementing different research and development activities.

As indicated above, our institute (EEFRI) is a federal research institution responsible for importing and adapting relevant technologies, conducting and coordinating research in the areas of environment, forestry and climate change, as well as disseminating suitable technologies and information for end users and stakeholders. Nursery management and propagation techniques, development and management

of commercial and smallholder plantations, urban forest development and management, species selection, tree improvement and domestication, introduction and expansion of different agro-forestry practices, rehabilitation and restoration of degraded lands are some of the major research thematic areas that have been given prior attention as far as plantation and agro-forestry research is concerned. Accordingly, since its establishment, the institute has been conducted different research projects, generated a number of technologies, knowledge and information in the above mentioned thematic areas and promoted and disseminated them to relevant stakeholders and end users in the form of publications, workshops and demonstrations.

The forest development and management activity is being taken care of by the federal EFCCC and the respective regional bureaus. They carry out nursery establishment and management, seedling production

Trees and forests contribute in many

ways a wealth of products and services that may be used to improve the

well-being of the society. Trees and forests besides their direct contribution to the national economy through wood and non-

wood products, they contribute significantly to various sectors of the national economy such as energy, agriculture, food, industry, health,

environment, tourism and the likes

PAGE 13 THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

The Executive

and distribution, training of farmers and stakeholders, establishment of Participatory Forest Management (PFM) groups, forest management, forest inventory, enforcement of forest rules and regulations and other related activities.

While the forest sector is trying to contribute to the national economic, social and environmental goals in one hand, it is struggling with various challenges like lack of proper organizational structure at different levels on the other hand. Although there are forest policies and strategies in place, the forest sector couldn’t ensure a proper institutional set up that can accomplish those objectives indicated in the policies and strategies. As we move down ward from federal to Kebele levels, we will miss the responsible government entity for forestry. The very low institutional profile of forestry at different levels is the root cause for different problems in the forest sector. This situation needs to be given due attention if we are to bring about a meaningful change in various aspects as forest development can be a basis for myriads of sectors.

Forest development can be a source of everything

EH: The sole effort of the government with regard to rejuvenating forestry development and putting green initiative into practice doesn’t make a difference, obvious. In what way can you elucidate the level of private investment and green economy actors along this line in Ethiopia? Are there prime actors, perhaps, actors involving in this colossal deed? Name them.

Dr. Teshome: Involvement of the private sector in forest development and management is encouraging although it is not as demanded and significant. Lack of incentives, credit schemes, training opportunities and land for planting are some of the major problems that contribute to lower level of participation of private investors. The existing licensing procedural mechanism for investment on forestry is also unnecessarily long and discouraging. However, the government has prepared a national forest investment plan and continued to encourage the private investors to properly contribute to the sector. If this is so, the country will have ample opportunity to well develop its natural resource and in turn exploit the benefits that follow.

EH: Forestry development is increasingly becoming a global agenda; can you say something about the east African engagement in general and that of Ethiopia in particular to hit region’s set target on the subject under discussion? In simple terms, at what level is Ethiopia’s collaboration with the east African states (particularly organizations working on the area) to reinforce the engagement with a view to augmenting region growth and prosperity?

Dr. Teshome: There are various international partnerships and collaborations including with East African Countries in the area

Forestry Development...

of forestry research and development. For example, EEFRI is working together with KEFRI (Kenyan Forest Research Institute) in various ways including importation of germplasms for forestry research purpose. We are also working with the AFF (African Forest Forum) whose headquarter is in Nairobi. Bio-energy and bamboo are some of the focus areas on which we are collaborating with African countries. The

Great Green Wall of the Sahel and the Sahara Initiative (GGWSSI) is also another area of cooperation. Ethiopia is aggressively working on the area to come up with a difference in all aspects especially on the area under discussion taking EEFRI to the forefront.

EH: Would you place any degree for the tie among national green economy, economic progress and forestry development?

Dr. Teshome: The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy is the basic strategic document on which other national economic, social and environmental initiatives are based. Economic development projects are expected to be green through reduction of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and the development of a green economy will be based on four pillars:

The first one is developing green economy: This entails the adoption of agricultural and land use efficiency measure. The second point is about increased GHG sequestration in forestry, i.e., protecting and re-establishing of forests for their economic and ecosystem services including as carbon stocks. The third one is deployment of renewable and clean power generation and the last is exhibiting the use of appropriate advanced technologies in industry, transport, and buildings.

EH: The government of Ethiopia has officially declared to plant close to 5 billion tree seedlings this summer. What is your organization’s contribution to this Grand National Initiative? As a specialist in the area, how could the country make this plan real? Comment on the role scientists of the area like you, government itself, and the general society can play in this regard (put genre by genre fashion, if possible).

Dr. Teshome: EEFRI is contributing, will contribute, a lot to the Green Legacy (tree planting campaign) and other related circumstances through: distribution of

quality seeds and seedlings, delivery and provision of research outputs on forestry (technology and information), participating in the Green Legacy National Committee, provision of training and consultancy services on forestry and conducting its own annual planting on its own selected sites. For our tree planting to be effective and successful, our tree planting campaign needs to be based on knowledge and information and the task requires serious commitment until the trees we plant met its objectives. There should be strong monitoring and evaluation for the trees we planted and we need to strictly follow scientific procedures for pre-planting and post-planting phases of the tree planting campaign.

EH: What should, do you think, be done to recuperate Ethiopia’s forest coverage to the status it was years ago?

Dr.Teshome: The growing attention of the government towards environment, forestry, and climate change and the recognition of the environmental and supportive functions of the forestry sector to other sectors is really a very good opportunity for tree planting, re-greening and forest development. Our country is endowed with diverse agro-ecologies which positioned it to be the best place in the horn of Africa for tree planting and growing various types of tree species for producing wood products and environmental services. We need to exploit this advantage.

In sum, the government at it drives the wheel well, community at all walks of life and even at individual level should move in unison to nurture forests and plant trees with a view to consolidating innovations and improving their impact on sustainable forest resources and well intensifying the conservation of Ethiopia’s bio-diversity. The development of broad policy reformulation and reinforcement, training packages along with local public participation will potentially help the country make a difference.

Although there are forest

policies and strategies

in place, the forest sector

couldn’t ensure a proper

institutional set up that

can accomplish those

objectives indicated in the

policies and strategies

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 14

Art & Culture

See The Battle... Page 15

BY TEKLEBIRHAN GEBREMICHAEL

The Battle of Benishangul is a computer – simulated water war between Ethiopia and Egypt. Of course, the Nile, the Blue Nile to be precise, is the big bone of contention. Egypt says, as Herodutus said before the birth of Christ, she is the “gift of the Nile” and cannot survive without the waters of the Nile. Ethiopia, on the other hand, argues that this may have been true in the past but not anymore, because Egypt can now desalinize the Red Sea and obtain fresh water and, besides, she has a huge amount of under-ground water enough to last for hundreds of years.

But Egypt is adamant about her longstanding position on the question of the Nile. Not a drop of water can be taken from the Nile as doing so would, in the eyes of the Egyptian people, be considered as an intolerable existential threat. Ethiopia, on her part, contends that as the source of the Nile, she has every right to an equitable share of the waters of the Nile and its tributaries. So, the respective positions of the two ancient civilizations appear to be irreconcilable and, what is more, both countries want to use the Nile as a weapon of war. Ethiopia, in her long history, has threatened to divert the Nile. Egypt has attempted to colonize Ethiopia and control the Nile at the source. They have fought several water wars before and Ethiopia has always prevailed, particularly at the battles of Gura and Gundet. Lately, Egypt’s subtle and secret strategy to weaponize the Nile revolves around the idea of denying Ethiopia the utilization of the waters of the Nile and subjecting her to food insecurity and undernourishment, thus creating a population stunted not only physically but mentally as well.

These basic facts and historical data are fed into the supercomputer which is supposed to process them meticulously and churn out plausible outcomes. Historically, Egypt abandoned the Palestinian cause through the Camp David agreement in order to guarantee that Ethiopia shall not use the Nile for economic development by dint of America’s superpower diktat. This strategy has been buttressed by Egypt’s proxy wars against Ethiopia through “unstunted, mercenary Ethiopian rebels and leaders.” So, Egypt’s President Sadat told his cabinet ministers at their regular meeting thus: “Our subtle and secret strategy of preventing Ethiopia from using the Nile for irrigation has subjected the vast majority of the Ethiopian population to undernourishment and therefore to physical and mental stunting. Repeated famines and widespread hunger may have caused the revolution against the monarchy, but as you know, our long-term aim is to cause the Ethiopian population to rise against Ethiopia itself through irrational desperation caused by mental stunting and retardation, which results from insufficient food intake and malnutrition. I will never allow Mengistu Hailemariam to use the Nile for irrigation as long as I am President of Egypt!” President Sadat’s docile cabinet

ministers expressed their strong support for the President’s commitment by a warm round of applause.

President Sadat’s successor, President Mubarak, convened his cabinet ministers in 1984 and started his briefing with a broad smile on his face: “Our subtle and secret strategy against Ethiopia is working. Did you see on TV the havoc undernourishment, malnutrition and hunger can wreak on the human body? What you did not see is the devastation they can inflict on the human

brain! The horrendous famine in Ethiopia has decimated the Ethiopian people not only physically but, more importantly, mentally as well. They will soon rise not only against Mengistu and his Derg cabal but also against the state of Ethiopia itself and in favour of the enemies of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi and Essayas Afeworki. In short, we Egyptians have outsmarted the Ethiopians in weaponzing the Nile! We have successfully denied them the nutrition which the Nile would have abundantly given them!”

Mubarak’s cabinet ministers gave him a standing ovation, patting each other’s backs. Meanwhile, President Mengistu Hailemariam made the grave error of not seeking rapprochement with the USA after the collapse of its erstwhile superpower sponsor, the Soviet Union. He made things worse by killing his best generals who were alleged to have participated in a military coup to oust him from power and also to have been bribed by the enemy. As President Mubarak had predicted, a large section of the Derg’s army and the Ethiopian population turned against Mengistu and began to sympathize with the anti-Ethiopia and pro-Egypt forces of the TPLF and EPLF. Consequently, the Derg’s army was routed at Afabet and later at Shire, and President Mengistu Hailemariam fled the country to seek asylum in Zimbabwe, where he still lives.

TPLF’s leader Meles Zenawi assumed power in Ethiopia and allowed Eritrea, including Assab, to break away and form a sovereign state, making Ethiopia in the process one of the largest land- locked countries in the world. He then proceeded, with hardly any significant popular opposition, to write a constitution that would eventually fragment, balkanize, and dismantle Ethiopia and erase the country from the face of the earth! Mental and Physical stunting caused

by nutritional deficiency as a result of not utilizing the Nile to produce enough food has worked its tricks as envisaged and planned by the leaders of Egypt.

Having Ethiopia down on her feet, the Egyptian people and the opposition leaders felt that it was then time to return to the Arab fold and make amends for their betrayal of the Palestinian cause. So, they elected Mohammed Morsi, the leader of the radical Muslim Brotherhood, as President of Egypt, which caused alarm and consternation in the US government, conjuring up frightening images of Egypt ganging up once again with other Arab and Muslim countries against Israel. So, US President Obama gave Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia a phone call and asked: “How are you? Mr. Prime Minister, Morsi’s election in Egypt is quite catastrophic for US’s Middle East foreign policy. Would you do me a favour? Just operationlize the US’s longstanding strategy of weaponizing the Nile if and when the need arises. That’s probably the only way we can scare the Egyptian people into rejecting and ousting Morsi. Place a cornerstone for a great dam on the Nile.”

Meles Zenawi replied: “Thank you, Mr. President, your request is in fact a godsend for me at a time when rabid opposition leaders here in Ethiopia are talking gibberish about colour and season(spring) revolutions to oust my regime. I will definitely respond positively to your timely request.”

So, the cornerstone for the Grand Renaissance Dam was laid and the US started using it to armtwist the Morsi government, which was eventually ousted by the current Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. With American foreign policy interests in Egypt restored once again, US bias in favour of Egypt has re-emerged. Meanwhile,

Short story

The Battle of Benishangul

Repeated famines and widespread hunger may have caused the revolution against the monarchy, but as you know, our long-term aim is to cause the Ethiopian population to rise against Ethiopia itself through irrational desperation caused by mental stunting and retardation

Art & CulturePAGE 15 THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

Meles Zenawi suddenly fell ill and died. True to Mubarak’s word, the Ethiopian population, showing clear manifestations of bad judgment, gave Meles Zenawi a state funeral never before seen in Ethiopia’s long history, even to this day and erected in his memory a magnificent mausoleum on hallowed ground. Hailemariam Desalegne succeeded the deceased Meles Zenawi and appeared ineffectual until he played a crucial role in paving the way for the ouster of the powerful TPLF cabal from the center of power and the assumption of the premiership by the incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The computer –simulation scenario mentioned above is based on the fundamental premise that the interests of Ethiopia and Egypt as regards the Nile are irreconcilable. Ethiopia appears to want to use the Nile for hydropower generation only for tactical bargaining purposes, but it is bound to want to use it for irrigation as well in due course of time. Egypt knows this more than any other country, but it does not want to receive a drop less water from its sine qua non. So, it has decided that war is inevitable. It is now trying to buy time by appearing to want to negotiate. The computer –simulated epic saga of the Battle of Benishangul between Ethiopia and Egypt unfolds as follows:

The President of Egypt convenes a secret meeting of his top brass generals and informs them thus: “President Trump has tried all he can to convince Ethiopian leaders not to reduce the 100 percent water volume Egypt is getting now from the

Nile, but hardliners within the Ethiopian leadership seem to be adamant about their desire to use the Nile not only for hydropower generation but also eventually for irrigation as well. So, we have no choice but to destroy the dam before it is filled with water. I know our secret and subtle strategy of spawning not only physical but also mental stunting through nutritional deficiency by denying the Ethiopians the right to the use the Nile for food production has paid handsome dividends in fomenting pro-Egypt and anti-Ethiopian proxy war warlords in Ethiopian, including General Jafar, General Gudina and General Hagos. Besides, a large section of the Ethiopian Army, and indeed a considerable part of the Ethiopian population, who have been

successfully stunted are willing to be enslaved by petrodollar Arab countries as attested by uncontrollable influxes of such people to countries such as Saudi Arabia to do menial jobs under disgusting conditions. Hence, the prime objective of our “Operation Gift of the Nile” is to destroy the so-called Grand Renaissance Dam (before it is filled with water) with a missile or a long-haul bomber and secure the source of the Nile with our elite ground troops. So, get on the move immediately!”

The Prime Minister of Ethiopia who has received reliable prior information from domestic and international intelligence sources about Egypt’s “Operation Gift of the Nile”, has already had the Grand Renaissance Dam secretly three quarters filled with water, which was in fact the main reason why the President of Egypt ordered the double- pronged attack on Ethiopia. So, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia convenes, as is displayed in the computer simulation, his top- brass generals including General Arage, General Iskinder, General Gudina, General Jaffar and General Hagos and members of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiating team and gives the following orders as Commander-in –Chief of the Ethiopian Armed Forces:

“Due to serious intelligence lapses, Egyptian elite forces have already been deployed in and around Benishangul. They seem to have abandoned their plan to destroy the dam because it is now almost three-quarters full. Investigations are already underway into the intelligence lapses and why Egyptian troops have succeeded in making advances

deep into Ethiopian territory. However, we have no time now to consider that in any detail. We must operationalize “Gura II” without delay. Transmit defensive counter- attack orders immediately!”

Even as the Commander –in- Chief is issuing his orders, fierce ground battles in and around Benishangul are underway. The generals leave the secret military meeting by helicopter for their respective command posts. The Commander-in –Chief lowers his head, closes his eyes and rubs his forehead in anguish after seeing video footage of General Jaffar’s, General Gudina’s and General Hagos’s troops being completely routed by the Egyptian forces. But he does not believe what he sees when he opens his eyes again General Iskender’s and General Arage’s joint forces have struck the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with missiles and have breached its dykes and floodgates, unleashing tidal waves over ten meters high sweeping everybody and everything in their wake.

Before the screened computer simulation of the potential water war between Ethiopia and Egypt comes to an end, it highlights the two major ways in which the Nile could be weaponized. One is what the Egyptians have been utlitizing for so long, i.e. causing mental and physical stunting in Ethiopia by subjecting it to nutritional deficiency through denying the Ethiopians the right to utilize the Nile for food production, thereby fomenting civil war out of sheer mental retardation; the other way is what has won the Battle of Benishangul for the Ethiopians!

Even as the Commander –in- Chief is issuing

his orders, fierce ground battles in and around Benishangul are underway

A Peek/This is Ethiopia

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 16

PhotospreadSee Delay of renovating... page 17

BY TSEGAY HAGOS

Delay of renovating invaluable heritage instigates concern of collapse

The Aksumite civilization which was flourished between 1st and 8th century AD has left many irreplaceable heritages. The magnificent obelisks that are still standing in the town of Aksum are major legacies of the Aksumite Kingdom. However, these timeless heritages have been facing risk of collapse since recent years. Especially the obelisk which was returned from Rome, Italy 12 years ago creates concern of falling down.

The Authority for Research and Conservation of Cultural Heritage (ARCCH) has taken the responsibility of renovating and conserving heritages. Though it has signed an agreement with Italian company named Latanzi to renovate it, it has not yet started due to many factors, pandemic blamed as major reason for delay.

The renovation work will include the palaces of emperors which are found around the obelisk and research and contract has been finalized, Authority Research and Conservation of Cultural Heritage Director General Dr. Mulugeta Fiseha said.

“When we say renovation of Aksum obelisk, we are talking mainly about stelae number three and the ground water which has been affecting the obelisk for many years. The other heritages which need refurbishment are the palaces and tombs of emperors. These problems were there for more than 10 years. To address the problem, we first hired MH Engineering consulting company, local

company to make a research. In addition to this, to create UNESCO acceptance we consulted Italian consulting firm studio croci.’’ he explains. Adding: “We passed

the research stage and necessary materials were prepared since last March and we finalized agreements with Latanzi company, a company which re-erected the obelisk

upon its return from Italy,’’

He states that the agreement signed between

COVID-19 pandemic needs the involvement of all stakeholders. Political, religious and community leaders have huge responsibility in creating awareness and mobilizing the public to tackle the virus. Thus, President Sahlework Zewde has taken an initiative of participating in conferences related with the pandemic.

Yesterday, the president has taken part in a video conference that concerns on mobilizing resources which would be important to combat COVID-19 in Africa. In the conference, special envoy of African Union has presented his message.

The leaders have agreed on ways of implementing successful resource utilization and they called for stakeholders to work together in mitigating the transmission of the pandemic.

Office of the president indicated that African leaders, CEOs of international organizations, ex-Presidents and other pertinent stakeholders have participated in the conference.

BY TSEGAY HAGOS

A Peek/This is Ethiopia PAGE 17 THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

Delay of renovating ... ARCCH and Latanzi was to finish the refurbishment works within 11 months.

However, the Director General admits that it is not going as planned due to some mechanical problems and COVID-19 pandemic.

“Finally, according to our agreement, the renovation work was planned to be started last April. We know the risk that might happen on the obelisk would be serious. But MH Engineering’s research show that no new problem has caused so far. The problem was there since the stelae return from Italy,’’ he underlines.

Nevertheless, ARCCH understands the threat and having understood this, the government has allocated more than 100 million Birr for its revamping works.

“Aksum and Lalibela has been prioritized due to their seriousness. Our authority was not sitting idle from the very beginning. It was watching it cautiously and working to rescue such incredible heritage. We are looking at its budget, works and research. But we are lagging behind due to one major obstacle. COVID-19 pandemic is the main reason for the delay since the Italian company could not come on time as Italy was the epicenter of the virus,’’ Dr. Mulugeta notes.

As to him, four containers full of materials which are need for renovation works have already arrived in Ethiopia via the port of Djibouti and the authority is tirelessly working to start operation.

‘‘We know the stelae is at risk of collapsing. That is why we are trying our best to do whatever necessary to refurbish it. We have daily contact with Lataniz, MH Engineering

and other stakeholders. In addition to this, as it is world heritage, UNESCO have given us approval for the research’s importance and accuracy. We are contacting the contractor to come and renovate it taking necessary cautiousness on the pandemic,’’ the Director General explains.

For his part, Aksum Culture and Tourism Office Head, Gebremedhin Fitsumbirhan says unless urgent rescue mechanism is

undertaken, the unique heritage could fall down.

‘‘Water is flowing under the cellar of the obelisk. There is high possibility of eroding its soft sand that could cause a danger of destrcution. Not only this, palaces and tombs of emperors are also facing similar problems. We have been pleading for immediate overhaul. But the promise has not yet materialized,’’ the head emphasizes.

Hence, he urged concerned bodies to exert their maximum efforts to renovate it overcoming the challenges being witnessed.

‘‘Our forefathers had bequeathed such mesmerizing symbol of ancient civilization. We will not replace it if it falls down due to our negligence. Thus, we have to act as quick as possible. ARCCH has to fulfill its plans of refurbishing it on time,’’ Gebremdhin insists.

(vi) Monitoring and evaluation is important for sustaining social participation;

(viii) Participation on its own is not enough to eliminate poverty without government and community involvement.

Poverty and social exclusion in Africa : There are many different ways in which poor Africans are excluded from social and economic participation. The mechanisms of exclusion within African countries are similar. Zachmann noted that poverty and deprivation relate to the unequal distribution of assets, poor and unequal access to services, unemployment and low productivity, restricted access to markets and lack of capital and credit. Added to these factors are the persistent “exclusionary” African political systems which make the policy-making process very insular. With varying degrees, these characteristics contribute to the maintenance of Africa’s marginal position in the world economy.

A mechanical solution would confront each of these situations independently

Poverty and social ...of each other, which is inefficient. But, an appropriate “first response” must begin with macroeconomic growth and development policies that are supportive of poverty reduction and employment creation. The key principles of economic policy need to emphasize on equity, resource distribution, employment opportunities and productivity, increased income, higher demand for goods services, competitiveness and efficient trading. Experience has, however, demonstrated that this is not possible without commitment to real pro-poor structural change in Africa.

As Zachmann argues, there is no guarantee that the positive effects of good policies would reach the poorest groups. This demands increased commitment by African leaders to effectively target the poor as beneficiaries of development policies. Adequate economic policies required competent governance. Economic policy would be frustrated by weak government capacity, and by lack of “feed-back” on the effects of policy. Participation is a rapid and cost effective way of achieving feedback.

Globalization and social exclusion: Studies explored the economic roots of social exclusion, both for poor groups within countries and for groups of countries, as in the case of Africa. In his study Murray referred to the phenomenon of globalization, and to the scope of local responses to the adverse social consequences of globalization. Murray pointed out that the dominant feature of globalization is the process of “accumulation.” Attempts to preserve “national” economic space have been undermined by neo-liberalism. This has led to the depression of “social democracy,” in countries that have attempted to regulate “market forces” for furthering social objectives.

There are alternative escape routes, however. Murray cited two, the first being an attempt to develop local economies, by focusing on community-based economic development. The second focused on trade movement, which was trying directly to foster more “equitable” trade regimes. He concluded that key forms of autonomy and social inclusion be established at the level of

consumers, communities and production systems.

Conclusion: Developing countries have been weakened by both internal and external factors, the latter determining the former. They have to strongly defend themselves from economic and social domination by the external forces. They have to design policies that promote their integration for eliminating poverty and social exclusion. Such measures will restructure the unhealthy societies that are afflicted by economic, social and political inequality. The pre-condition for these measures is the existence of good governance.

The best policies and strategies would be discouraged by an incompetent government that excludes people from participating in the determination of their fate. Finally, there are perils and promises the test of which is the capacity of the society to fight social exclusion and advance social inclusion instead. Poor communities should fight for the creation of a government that represents their interests in programs of development and social inclusion. Thank you.

WitnessTHE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 18

My visit to Canada BY FITSUM GETACHEW

Part Four

A friend had promised that he would have me picked up at the Toronto Pearson International Airport, but could I rely on his words and wait? I was tempted to stay but I also wanted to check, so I called. But I had no local coins for the phone and had to go to the exchange desk and secure some local currency. I then bought a telephone card for 10 CAD to use in the public phones. Then I called the person to remind her that I was there waiting! She must have been surprised. She said I must have warned her earlier, when she was not so busy. She said she welcomed me very much but could not come. After all, I said to myself, you cannot expect such favours in the West. Normally this could happen at home, in distant Addis, where people would really take the pain and trouble to pick you up at an air port and even tour you around in a usual friendly gesture.

Of course social relations in Africa contrast with those in Canada. Her natural advice was therefore, “why don’t you take a cab!? Call the hotel and they will pick you up.” Thank you very much! I courteously replied and hung the phone. The hotel however did not have such service and my last option was to rent a normal taxi.

Toronto Pearson International Air Port may not be of the size of Frankfurt, but it had its own crowd and passengers. Definitely Toronto is a larger city than Frankfurt but the difference I reckoned was that Frankfurt was at the centre of Europe where so many air lines used it as a hub, even if there were many connection flights to the various parts of the US and other destinations. What immediately impressed me was the number of wheel chairs I saw at the exit. I thought of the attention that Canada gave to people with disabilities. I also saw a number of women police patrolling the terminal, beside a variety of colours of people.

Already I was beginning to sense the famous multiculturalism and multi-ethnicity of Toronto. In any case, I was now out to see a queue of taxis. At first I was surprised to find only Lincolns and Limos as taxis, and I feared they must be very expensive. I was anxious about the costs even though I knew Canada was paying for it. An Indian taxi driver in uniforms came and put my luggage in the cab. The luggage box in the back could hardly accommodate my bags as they were too bulky. But he somehow managed to fix it, and we headed for Victoria Hotel.

The driver was rushing, too much for my tastes, I thought, and tried to cool him down by engaging him in a heated conversation. I wanted his full attention. The interior of the taxi was all covered with soft and beautiful leather. Wow! What a luxury! I thought, this was one form of Canadian richness. I should not forget that I am not in Africa, or even Europe, for that matter. I cannot imagine our taxis in Addis looking like this. And the car was automatic. Later, I found out that all cars in Canada were automatic and few were older than five

years!

I was in fact highly impressed by the quality of the vehicles. No noise, no pollution, no broken cars stationing along the streets, blocking the traffic! This happens so often in Addis that I was sure then that I was in another world! Look at the order that people meticulously follow when they drive! In the taxi, from time to time I heard the radio messages of the various voices within the network. The driver looks at me through the rear mirror and continues to chat. Viewing the city, I observed how flat it was and there was a lot of space and green area. After all Canada had a lot of

space and greenery I remembered from my geography lessons!

The taxi driver was a tall, fat, dark-skinned Indian with long hair, aged about twenty-eight, thirty. With his small eyes and his large cheeks protruding out, he looked overweight and bizarre. Being overweight in Canada was not a problem, seeing what they eat and drink! This is what I found out later. Often sweet and fatty! And the frequency with which people consume food.... I was surprised to see the number of people walking/driving eating and drinking, a habit that you hardly observe in Addis. Perhaps there is the influence of the climate as well. To cope with the cold or even heat in the summer, you’d rather eat and resist. It then becomes a habit I guess.

My ‘Indian’ host talked about Canadian society quite freely and told me that it was ‘crazy’ about money and social interaction or family bond was limited. He complained it was just ‘a material world’, competition, money, money, and still more money, he said! Material interests motivated people and families broke due to money related issues etc. When I asked him how he coped with life in Toronto, he said ‘not good’ because ‘no money’! Here is where I got suspicious. His English was funny, loose and haphazard indicating more or less his ‘academic background’. Probably he was not a college graduate like most Indians who are industrious people, academic people. I know from my Addis school days with all the Indian teachers we have in our high schools and universities. I remember we even had a French language teacher of Indian origin at the TMS! But all the same I stimulated him to talk, my curiosity could not be betrayed; and he was an open book.

A bit further however he retracted that life in Toronto was not so bad after all, nodding his head. It was a clean city with little criminality. He was now telling me the contrary of what he had just told me earlier. I thought life in Toronto must be heavenly, if he compared it to his native India. I was perhaps a bit suspicious but I could not digest his initial statements. I doubted their sincerity. An Indian immigrant talking in bad terms about Canadian life sensed for me a bit out of the ordinary.

Continuing our conversation, I asked him about the dual language system in Canada. He was prompt in telling me about how French is almost superfluous in Toronto, unlike in Montreal. He thought the government ‘wasted’ resources in ‘translating everything’ from one language to the other.

After a relatively long drive, he charged me 43 CAD and dropped me at the edge of Yonge Street, flying away without even bothering to see what happened to me! I thought it was typical of western society to be frenzy. That was simply the pace of life. As for me, I had to pull my luggage by myself. Left to my own devices, I was upset with the driver’s indifference. Poor me! In Addis a taxi driver would lend a hand! Later on, my anger increased when I discovered that I was also overcharged. Well, I thought, taxi drivers were the same stock everywhere, after all!....... Sunday, September 29-2002.....First Real Encounter with Toronto

Today is in fact the first day that I had the opportunity of touring around Toronto. This morning, when I got up at around seven, I thought I had slept for a few hours, but in reality I had slept for more than 10 hours. I was so exhausted that I did not realise the time that had elapsed and naturally had enjoyed the protracted rest.

I got up and washed and then opened my luggage to check if what I brought did arrive safely. What I found was instead a disaster! The coffee bags and three or four of my roasted cereal, ‘kollo’ bags had burst during the trip! My traditional cloth I brought for the cold, ‘the gabi’ was completely rinsed with the powder! My first reaction was to curse the porters at the air ports!

However, I was relieved that the local wine bottles did not burst. When you travel by plane, you should remember that luggage could be treated roughly, especially if very heavy! By the same token, whatever you pack inside must be meticulously and tightly packed, to avoid shaking and being misplaced, or be exposed breaking! I had to clean everywhere in my suitcase, throw away the unusable powder, and when I met with people there, I could not give them as much coffee and ‘kollo’.

And so early in the morning, after we had our breakfast at the restaurant in our hotel, I, Primrose (a colleague from Harare) and Samia (from Algiers) decided that we should go out and discover the city at our own pace, and perhaps do some ‘soft’ shopping.

The driver was rushing, too much for my tastes, I thought, and tried to cool him down by engaging him in a heated conversation. I wanted his full attention. The interior of the taxi was all covered with soft and beautiful leather

PAGE 19 THE EHTIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

The Horn

BY MULUGETAS GUDETA

Von Clausewitz often said that war is the continuation of politics by other means or by violent means. According to recent reports by some Arab sources, unless Ethiopia signs an agreement with it before starting to fill the GERD dam, Egypt will use all the tools available to it in order to stop the filling and by implication, the completion of the GERD project. This is obviously a thinly veiled threat of war or use of force on the part of Cairo, according to the report. The last nine years of the Nile and GERD disputes grew slowly taking a zigzag path now and then leading to speculations about a possible hot conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. Will Egypt and Ethiopia go to war over the GERD? Despite grim predictions by some pessimistic media outlets and diplomatic gurus, this is unlikely to happen and it is not difficult to see why.

True, the dispute over the GERD is sometimes passing from a passive, verbal phase to an active and militaristic language. There is a fundamental question that will inevitably arise in due course: Why is warmongering increasingly becoming the language of diplomacy while all peaceful avenues are far from being used to diffuse the tension over the GERD dispute? What are the factors and actors that are pushing the dispute from the round table to the battlefield? What does the future scenario or scenarios will look like? Will war between the disputants help resolve their differences?

Arab media are always awash with pessimistic reports and analyses on the Nile waters, the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and issues related to them. The latest reports focus on the trilateral talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, the political game being played by the Egyptian side in connection with their strategy of aborting the filling of the dam as scheduled as well as warmongering as an alternative to what they often call Ethiopia’s “unilateral decision” to go ahead with the scheduled filling of the dam.

An online news outlet calling itself Al-Monitor for instance last week reported that Egypt is exploiting Sudan-Ethiopia tension to advance position on GERD talks. According to the same report, Egypt is leaving no stone unturned to take use the recent Sudan-Ethiopia border incident to win over Khartoum to its not so hidden cause of disrupting the filling of the GERD dam and if possible sabotage the entire project by any means available.

According to recent diplomatic developments, Egypt’s options on GERD are increasingly becoming not only limited but also dysfunctional. Cairo sought Washington’s assistance in its dispute with Ethiopia over the GERD and this has already proved a fiasco. It then sent a letter to the United Nations Security Council urging it to put pressure on Ethiopia to postpone if not

abandon its dam filling time table. Previously, Cairo tried and failed to rally the Arab League behind it in the same dispute. This is too has proved a failure. Both its regional and diplomatic efforts to sabotage Ethiopia’s legitimate quest have so far backfired.

Why did they backfire? One does not have to rack their brain in order to find an answer to this question. They backfired or failed simply because Egypt’s demands are not legitimate, truthful and its intentions have never been honest because it claims are always based on its anachronistic colonial time agreements that have outlived their time and should be kept in the museum of lost memories.

The first thing Egypt should have done when it started its dispute with Ethiopia was to abrogate all archaic agreements and start anew by draft new agreements based on 21 century regional and global realities. Egypt has obviously failed to do its homework not because it is a lazy student of history but because it cannot produce a new and rational argument to defend its position on the use of the Nile waters in general and the construction of the GERD dam in particular.

As it is unable to come up with fresh ideas, Cairo chose to hoodwink, threaten or cheat Ethiopia and mislead the international public opinion by sticking to a piece of document that has outlived its time. The colonial time agreements should be relegated to the scrap heap of history but Egypt chose to stick to it in the hope that the West or Great Britain would come to its rescue. This expectation has already been dashed. Had the Western world or the authors of the agreement inspired by the British colonialists were honest, they could have told their old colonial possession to abandon the agreement and write a new covenant that would reflect the best interests of the Egyptians themselves because colonial era agreements are generally drafted in the interest of the colonial powers.

Fast forward to the 21st century and Egypt’s intransigence and cunning diplomacy that it trying to find any pretext to dominate the arguments on the use the Nile waters as well as on the GERD is quite obvious. It is

generally agreed that diplomacy is the art of defending a country’s national interest by peaceful means. However, diplomacy has never lived up to the sacred principles of its founding fathers like Hans Morgenthau (i.e. Politics among Nations) according to whom “diplomacy must look at the situation from the point of view other nations and that nations must be willing to compromise on all issues that are not vital to them.”

Egyptians diplomacy neither looks at the situation from the point of view of other nations nor is it willing to compromise on all issues that are not vital to them. Instead of coming up with clear alternatives that would lead to compromise and mutual understanding, Egyptian diplomacy seems to have chosen the path of behind the door manipulations and backdoor dealings with one party to the dispute according to the report by Al-Monitor online news outlet.

“As tension increased between Sudan and Ethiopia, Egypt quickly intervened to push Khartoum to its side as trilateral negotiations on the Nile dam hit a wall over Addis Ababa’s insistence to start filling the dam in July.” Al-Monitor wrote. According to this report, Egypt is out to stop Ethiopia’s scheduled filling of GERD by any means even by luring one of the members of the triumvirate away from Ethiopia into the Egyptian fold which is assumed it could be on the side of the winning group.

Yet, Egypt’s overt and covert operations aspire to more serious objectives in view of the recent skirmishes along the Sudan-Ethiopia border that has obviously created a dangerous escalation in part due to Egypt’s behind the scene connections with the authorities in Khartoum.

Egyptian diplomacy on the Nile waters in general and on the GERD in particular is something like a knife that is sharpened to cut on both sides. On the one hand, Cairo is insisting on talks with Addis Ababa and on the other hand, and when conditions are permissive, it is trying to divide the negotiating team, and if possible pour oil on the incident that occurred along the

Sudan-Ethiopia border. This is nothing but a diplomacy of divide and rule (or divide and bully?), if there is anything like that at all.

In his definition of diplomacy, Morgenthau does not rule out the role of force in resolving disputes in relations among nations. He says that, “the objectives of foreign policy must be defined in terms of the national interest and must be supported with adequate power; and that the armed forces are the instrument of foreign policy...” What is important to note in this connection is that some of Morgenthau’s definitions of diplomacy and foreign policy are only relevant to the 20th century realities and like Egypt’s colonial-era agreements, some of them have outlived their time. This is the 21st century and any attempt to promote foreign policy through the instrument of power might not prove effective and might even be counterproductive. Foreign policy principles shaped during the colonial and imperialist era cannot be applicable in the age of globalization when diplomatic differences among nations cannot be resolved through the use of force.

This is actually why any attempt by Egypt to try to use anything other than peaceful negotiation to resolve its differences with the Nile riparian states is bound to boomerang or prove counterproductive. In this age of globalization, nations big or small, are capable of defending its national interest through peaceful diplomacy and if necessary, have the military capability to repel any attempt to impose power or use the threat of power to promote specific interests. In the final analysis however, the defining factor of any diplomatic outcome is not military power but peace and cooperation predicated on a win-win approach that is the essence of 21st century diplomacy.

So it is important for nations big or small to reevaluate their options before abandoning the peaceful diplomatic path and embark on an adventurist course of projecting or using military power to achieve a specific objective, and in the case of Egypt to torpedo the GERD project or delay the dam filling time table by creating all kinds of false pretexts.

As Morgenthau said some 70 or so years ago, a nation will best promote its interests in foreign policy by taking into account the interests of the other partner in the dispute and be willing to compromise even on all issues that are not vital to them. The recent decision by Egypt to join the talks on GERD filling process is worthy of encouragement because warmongering and the threat of conflict or division in the ranks of the participants at the walks are the worst alternatives course even Hans Morgenthau would not advise Egypt to take. The trouble is that Cairo is often changing gear in its diplomatic engagement and this time too, the fundamental question remains the following: Can you really trust Egypt when it talks about talks and join the round table?

Egypt’s double-edged diplomacy Can you really trust Cairo when it talks about

joining the talks?

Investment & Economy THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 22

BY ABEBE WOLDE GIORGIS

Beyond collecting tax, Ministry of Revenue works towards creating a responsible tax payer society. As part of this it has exerted a lot of efforts to contain the various forms of pervasive illegal trade practices.

Recently, after the establishment of the Customs Commission as autonomous entity, detecting and putting the culprits of illegal trade and smuggle to legal liability has shown progress.

Zemedie Teffera is head of law enforcement Department with the Ministry of Revenue with a rank of Deputy Minister. As to him, since last year the Ministry has done structural reform and in line with this, capacity building training is provided to workers to enable effectively fight illegal trade.

With regard to the new working system awareness creation training was given to each department from the federal up to the woreda levels in all the branches of regional offices.

He further said that, a major task force was established under the patronage of the Deputy Prime Minster to support the effort against illegal trade.

The task force comprises various institutions like the Federal Attorney General, the National Information and Security Service (NISS), Ministry of Defense and Federal Police Commission.

In addition to these, committees headed by Regional Government Presidents are also established to work together and periodically evaluate their performance.

According to Zemedie, a new custom’s police force has also been established under the Federal Police Commission while scouts patrol on daily basis the old and new customs check points that stretch from each branch up to national boarder.

Only in the last 10 months the commission was able to capture smuggled import items worth more than 1.5 billion Birr in all customs checkpoints.

The illegal trades are practiced both on incoming and outgoing goods. Most of the smuggled out items are cattle, coffee, gold and others.

The smuggled items are usually confiscated mainly to discourage illicit traders by crippling their financial capacity and to submit the items as evidences when suing the culprits to the court of law.

The other task that the commission accomplished in the last 10 months is tracing and arresting of tax evaders.

Though many traders comply with the tax law of the country to conduct their business there are some of them who engage in tax fraud.

There are also some civil servants who

collaborate with tax evaders. This has incurred a big loss to the economy of the country by wasting a considerable amount of revenue that the government would have obtained in the form of tax.

NISS has played an immense role in

tracing tax offenders. In general about 37.9 million Birr has been rescued from tax evasion.

The custom branch offices such as those at Bole International Airport, Mojo Dry Port and Kality site have played crucial role in this regard.

On the other hand, with the emergency inspection action method the authority has caught goods worth 230 million Birr which tried to pass the check points through illegal means.

As to Zemedie, the commission encourages private custom transitors to perform their activities with a professional integrity. He indicated that there are some transitors who often allow customers to pick up their imported goods unchecked.

In connection with such malpractice, the authority has confiscated goods worth 230 million Birr as the owners attempted to pass checkpoints without paying the necessary duties.

Some clients who were given privileges to instantly pick up their items by considering their loyalty were also engaged in tax fraud. In this regard, the authority has put under control goods worth 4.6 billion Birr while the owners were fined additional money. Some corrupt staff members have also been found guilty in such offences.

To encourage local and international investors the government provides incentives and among other tax holidays and importing goods free from taxes can be mentioned. But some investors seldom

found to abuse such privileges.

According to Mulugeta Beyene, the Law Enforcement Vice Commissioner, such malpractices have persisted for years unabated. But the government promulgated proclamation number 1162/2009 to monitor and control the situation. The proclamation stipulates the proper utilization of tax free privileges.

The proclamation gives mandate to the Ministry of Finance to bestow privilege to the pertinent entities. But the inspection and supervision mandate is given to the customs authority. Enterprises engaged in new investment ventures which create job opportunities to the youth are some of the privileged entities.

The government’s intention in providing incentive to the enterprises is a forward looking approach to create a better future for citizens. Had the tax been collected from the import items, a good sum of many could have been gained.

However, irrespective of the government’s far sighted intention some groups are found to abuse their import privileges and use the goods for unintended purposes. In this regard, properties imported free of tax worth 449.3 million Birr and used for unintended purposes are confiscated and became part of the government treasure.

On the other hand, more than 28 staff members who were found guilty of collaborating illegal traders have been fired from their jobs and sent to custody. Currently, their case is sent to the attorney general.

Fighting illegal trade: A timely task

The government’s intention in

providing incentive to the enterprises is a forward looking approach to create a better future for citizens

The illegal trades are practiced

both on incoming and outgoing

goods. Most of the smuggled out items

are cattle, coffee, gold and others.

PAGE 23 THE EHTIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020

Indepth

Poverty and social exclusion: A rapture of social bondsBY GETACHEW MINAS

Introduction: The issue of poverty and social exclusion has been one of the thorny questions of development in the developed and the developing countries. Both stress the problem of “multiple deprivations,” including social problems. There are crucial links between poverty and social exclusion issues all across developed and developing countries. The Institute of Development Studies (IDS), University of Sussex, explored these connections and drew conclusions for use by policy makers. There were new approaches to deprivation, and to related issues such as food, health, child poverty and employment.

These approaches dealt with access to information, personal security, vulnerability and other related issues. The question of social exclusion related to poverty and poverty reduction is also addressed. The concept of “social exclusion” is not, however, merely a re-defining of poverty. It is perhaps taken as a “deeper” explanation of poverty. It may offer something entirely new.

David O’Brien and et al have created new opportunities for discourse on social exclusion in the developed countries that may offer new lessons for the developing countries. Conversely, there are insights from the developing countries that will enrich discussions in the developed countries. Moreover, there are common perspectives that link both the developed and the developing countries on the question of poverty. The intent of IDS in this linkage is to bring the social exclusion deliberation into the purview of policy makers and development specialists. It should be no surprise, therefore, that most of the questions are rooted in the developed countries, and that most of the issues were relevant to developing countries. These linkages are further highlighted through social studies.

Dimensions of social exclusion: There are factors that help in understanding social exclusion. The first is a perspective of poverty and social exclusion, dealing with its characteristics, causes, and policy frameworks. The second is related to insights on lack of basic services such as health, education, shelter, food, clothing, employment opportunities. Conceptually, the issue of social exclusion begins with, as Arjan de Haan put it, the competing definitions of poverty and social exclusion. He reviewed studies on social exclusion and poverty in the developed countries and sought parallels in the developing countries. The term social exclusion is defined broadly as a “rupture of social bonds.” He noted that the terms had been interpreted in more than one category. He identified these categories as the solidarity, specialization and monopoly paradigms. The specialization and solidarity paradigm was dominant in the US, where “exclusion” was tied closely to notions of discrimination. The monopoly paradigm was dominant in Western Europe, where exclusion was seen as the consequence of group monopoly formation where certain “groups excluded” other groups. De Haan

accepted this diversity of approaches since they reflected different national notions of social exclusion. He thought the concept could be useful nonetheless because it focused on process and because it was multi-dimensional in nature.

Whether social exclusion was different from poverty was a doubtful case. If poverty was defined narrowly in terms of only income or consumption outcomes, then social exclusion clearly provided a “wider” view. But much of the current debate on poverty, especially in developing countries, was concerned with wider concepts of “relative deprivation,” ill-being, vulnerability and incapability. As in the case of social exclusion, the current poverty debate stressed process and focused on the multi-faceted nature of deprivation. There was thus a considerable “overlap” and scope for social exclusion.

Maxwell was concerned with overlaps, this time between developed and developing countries. He argued that increasing attention to poverty and social exclusion in the developed countries opened the possibility of a dialogue between the two regions on certain questions. First, are there new comparisons about the characteristics, causes and remedies of poverty and social exclusion? Secondly, does the rapid increase in poverty and social exclusion in the developed world signal a “new” convergence between developed and developing countries? Lastly, are there theories that would expose connections between poverty and social exclusion in the developed and the developing regions?

There are positive answers to all these questions. It is easy to identify comparisons about poverty and social exclusion in programs designed to combat them. Employment programs, for example, are generally rejected in the developed countries but applauded in the developing countries. Developing countries are supporting flexible

and diverse livelihoods, which contrasted with “formal sector jobs” in the developed countries. Policy-makers in the developed world do not emphasize “labor-intensive” strategies as developing countries do in fighting high levels of unemployment.

Maxwell reviewed the evidence and found himself agreeing with the ideas that globalization in the world economy, could “account” for poverty in both developed and developing countries. There were thus good reasons for poverty specialists from the developed and the developing countries to work together to seek solutions to the problem of poverty.

Social exclusion in the developing countries: It is pointed out that social exclusion is a multi-dimensional “expression” of poverty in Africa. In Asia, however, poverty is viewed as a key “cause” of social exclusion. In Latin America, this causality is “reversed” and social exclusion is seen as a cause of poverty. But, the key aspects of deprivation, such as violence and personal insecurity, are key features of social exclusion.

In terms of policy, social exclusion presents a complexity of social disadvantages. Policy should have an institutional focus on the main areas of action to reduce these disadvantages. These actions are related to enforcement of rights and participation through civil society mechanisms.

There are issues about the extent of overlap between poverty and social exclusion. It is possible to be poor but not socially excluded. Or conversely, it is also possible to be socially excluded but not poor. There might be groups both “rich” and socially excluded. There would also be considerable overlap between poverty and social exclusion. Better policies may be designed and their impacts measured only by “agreeing” on the measurement of indicators of poverty.

This is not going to be easy, however. Income or consumption poverty is not an adequate indicator. Alternative indicators would have to be developed. These may be based on the “constraints” to the capabilities of individuals, such as access to health care or water or education. It is important to recognize local indicators contributing to social exclusion. There has been little experience on the usefulness or cost effectiveness of social exclusion indicators. A participatory process that would be more productive is to allow “communities” themselves to determine local social exclusion indicators. There is recognition of the crippling “ignorance” on the definition and measurement of social exclusion. Sometimes, it is “correlated” with bad housing, debt, poor quality neighborhoods and weakened social ties and social participation.

The discovery of social exclusion, as Mr. Evans noted, has led to the introduction of many new “targeted” programs. This has made the social welfare systems of developed countries similar to each other. At the same time, targeted programs are specifically directed to tackling social exclusion as well as poverty. This is

designed not just to help beneficiaries secure jobs, but also to help them integrate into the social security system. Probably the best known program may be the one in which a claimant received benefit in return for a “commitment” to undertake actions. These actions are training, literacy courses, health care, parental education, etc. In general, such programs have strong geographical focus, targeting and empowering local communities.

It is suggested that the social exclusion approach may widen the social assistance institutions “beyond” a simple focus on unemployment. It may offer the possibility of integrated responses that combined different levels of government. It would focus policy toward multi-sector programs.

Studies show that the “persistently” poor are more likely to be single parent families, long-term unemployed and single pensioners. However, benefits “alone” may not eliminate poverty. Helping people out of poverty on a long-term basis means increasing budget for the poor in different dimensions.

Participation and social exclusion: Studies focusing on participation indicated that it is an end in itself as a component of “social inclusion.” Gaventa pointed out that participation is a crucial means of elimination of exclusion. “Participatory” strategies fight racism, ethnicity, tribalism and other factors of social exclusion. He outlined how participation had featured in the design and implementation of poverty reduction programs.

The media is used to tackle both the apparent pauperization and the social disengagement of the poor by encouraging “maximum feasible participation” in the war on poverty. Focus is made on regional economic development programs, with more participation by the poor people without discrimination based on racial, ethnic, and tribal factors. Poor communities may be encouraged to develop new forms of partnership with local government and civil society. It is emphasized that participation of the poor in community development and social inclusion are key components of preventing social exclusion.

Lessons from participation : There are several lessons learnt from participation of the poor in community development. These are:

(i) Government cannot impose or replace successful participation, but government policy on participation may “encourage” and legitimize grass-roots activities;

(ii) Participation places greater emphasis on “capacity-building” through economic development programs;

(iii) Participation that challenges power hierarchies will inevitably cause political conflict, and it needs high-level “support” if it is to be sustained;

(iv) As “social” capital is strong, participation produces better results; (v) Government institutions need to be equipped to facilitate effective participation;

See Poverty and social ... Page 17

There are issues about the extent

of overlap between poverty and social exclusion. It is possible to be poor but not socially excluded. Or conversely, it is also possible to be socially excluded but not poor. There might be groups both “rich” and socially excluded

Success Story THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 24

Supporting livelihoods in areas affected by soil salinity BY ENAWGAW SISAY

International Center for Biosaline Agriculture’s (ICBA) Rehabilitation and Management of Salt-affected Soils to boost Agricultural Productivity in Ethiopia and South Sudan (RAMSAP) Project has improved the livelihood of many rural and pastoral communities in salt-affected areas of Ethiopia during the first phase of the four year project.

The project findings show that about 80 percent of irrigated areas in Ethiopia are affected by soil salinity, where production loses are ranging from 10-80 percent contingent on the soil salinity levels. Use of poor-quality water for irrigation, poor on-farm water management practices and lack of adequate drainage facilities are the main reasons behind the surge of the soil salinity problems.

A 28 years old young farmer Mohammed Musa in Amibara district of the Afar Regional state -Ethiopia, shares his experiences on how the soil salinity affects his district. “I grew up in this area, my families used to produce Maize and some export crops such as cotton, citrus fruits, onion, and vegetables through irrigation,” he said. “They used to produce up to 150 quintals of onion from a small plot of land. However, at some point, they could not harvest even 40 quintals from the same land due to the increasing soil salinity problem.”

Mohammed added that ICBA’s project

came when the situation has reached a critical point in the area - agricultural lands were abandoned and farmers became frustrated and halted their usual agricultural practices due to soil salinity.

Following the introduction of RAMSAP, in 2016, sudden changes are being observed. The project has been implemented to contribute to poverty reduction through the introduction and promotion of integrated crop-livestock systems, improved irrigation, and crop management practices. All are biological methods to mitigate the problems. Four types of grasses (Rhodes grass, Sesbania,

Panicom, Cinchrus) and six salt-tolerant crops (Barely, Sorghum, Quinoa, cowpea, Lablab, Pearl Millet) were planted on the farmers’ plots and research points. Both researchers and farmers observed that the situation quickly started to improve the infertility of the lands as witnessed in the trial sites.

“Before ICBA’s interventions, whatever we planted, it wouldn’t germinate, or the yield was very poor. I planted onion in my plot and harvested only 35 quintals. After the adoption of the technology, I planted again the same crop in the same plot and harvested gained 80 quintals,”

said Mohammed Musa.

All the farmers engaged in the project have experienced similar situations. Now, they started to plant the major crops and fodder and are generating more income. In general, ICBA has ignited a glimmer of hopes for rural pastoralist communities in areas affected by soil salinity by enhancing stable crops and fodder production, while rehabilitating their lands. The project has been implemented in five regional States (Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, and Somali) of Ethiopia since 2016.

Dr. Asad Qureshi, ICBAs RAMSAP Project Leader said that, in addition to treating soil salinity, the project has contributed significantly to improve forage varieties to feed and increase livestock productivity in lowland areas of the country. The seeds of the recommended varieties of the selected crops are now being multiplied for free distribution to farmers in all five regions. The project is also organizing training and demonstration plots to educate farmers about these crops.

International Center for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA) is an International, non-profit agricultural research center. Head Quarter in Dubai, UAE, it works towards achieving food, nutrition and water security, in saline and marginal environments around the world. ICBA has developed a variety of methods of Bioremediation in order to bring salt-affected lands back into agricultural use.

championed. Perhaps the only time elite and mass interests converged was during the 1974 Revolution that brought the two entities together in joint political action until the time the demands they raised at the initial stage of the Revolution failed to practically articulate their interests.

As a result of the continuing political polarization among the various elite groups and their inability to come together and make a kind of honest and open confession of their mistakes, elite groups are still polarized and hostile to one another. They accuse one another instead of taking responsibility for their share of mistakes. The land question in Ethiopia as a political agenda had polarized the political elites and led to violent struggles that in turn led to loss of human lives during the Revolution. But none of the elite groups had come up openly and admitted their mistakes and asked the masses for apology or reconciliation

The elites are as divided as they were 40 years ago although a lot of water has flawed under the river since then. Why the elite groups failed to admit their mistakes and pledge to recompense the people whom they failed is a matter of deep inquiry and serious research. Yet, the irrevocable fact remains that the political elites in this country were caught in a polarizing impasse over the past decades and still remain stuck there.

South Africa could shake off the 400 years old Apartheid system of racial segregation in a year or so of truth telling,

national reconciliation among the different races. The establishment of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) under Bishop Desmond Tutu, the iconic leader of black struggle for freedom in South Africa, was a turning point in the history of the country that has done away with centuries old hatred, racial bigotry and the oppression and exploitation of one race by another.

There is nowadays a tendency to shape the search for peace and reconciliation on the basis the cultures, traditions and specific conditions of the various communities involved in the process. This traditional approach seems to bear fruit simply because the process is owned and driven by local communities and not political elites who always try to impose their views on ordinary people. The gachacha or local tribunals in Rwanda have played key role in managing the aftermath of the 1994 massacres in which close to one million people were massacred.

The ongoing bitter acrimonies, disputes, names callings and threats that characterize Ethiopian political life at present are not new to the country’s history. As many intellectuals may agree, Ethiopia is built on wars, conflicts, misunderstandings, group interests and bitter clashes of personalities if not ideas that are mostly borrowed from foreign countries.

Modernizing elites and conservatives aristocrats, military dictators and Marxist intellectuals, Left and Right, nationalists

and unifiers, ethnic bigots and liberals all claimed the political space for themselves by alienating the popular masses even if that entailed using force or destroying traditional and cultural values along the road with complete disregard to the interests and aspirations of the people they claim they represent.

The country is now engaged in what intellectuals call constitutional debates or political disputes that are further polarizing the elites and terrorizing the common people who see in these dangerous cleavages a recipe for more disasters as it was also the case in the past. The optimism born of the recent reforms are largely ignored now and all talks among the elite groups are not only edgy but also poisoned with mutual hostility and lack of trust or respect. Otherwise, what is the point of having half a dozen political organizations that are claiming to represent on national entity? Why do former comrades-in arms quickly change into present-day sworn enemies out to destroy one another if possible?

Ethiopian intellectual and political elites are famous for their notoriously uncompromising attitude when it comes to political differences. Flexibility and compromise are words that are not found in Ethiopian political lexicon. Ethiopian politics in the last forty or so years is rather defined by notions such as mutual hostility, intransigence, arrogance, selfishness and lack of a uniting vision. It is usual for

Ethiopian elites to start political discussions with promises of reconciliation and mutual understanding that quickly degenerate into still more dangerous polarizations and hostilities.

The political transition in Ethiopia that should attain a certain level of maturity has unfortunately become the prisoner of elitist cleavages and political polarizations. The elites are not speaking the language of reconciliation or a language easily understandable by the masses of the people who are generally alienated from the political debates. This is one of the reasons why the debates around constitutionalism, succession of power and democratization are often hitting hard walls. It is now time for the disparate intellectuals, elite groups to overcome their pride and ego, come together face to face and work hard to overcome their differences for the sake of peace and democracy.

Most of all, conditions should be created for the active involvement of the so far alienated masses to take part in national discussions, understand the issues and take decisions that concern them directly and will impact their future in a positive or negative way. They should be empowered to free themselves from elite political tutelage and speak for themselves instead. This is a strategy that has never been tried in the past and deserves attention at present when the threat of inter-elite and inter-ethnic conflicts are threatening to tear the nation apart.

Why people’s empowerment ...

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 25

Cooperation among the countries is the lesson to be learnt from this crisis. It has awakened the global leaders on health and safety measures. Corona is the common enemy to mankind in the universe, results in human tragedy with economic cost and exacerbates unemployment levels by more than 20% from the earlier levels.

Herald: What could the impact of Covid-19 be on elections and politics?

Dr.Ravi: The leadership who has taken initial measures in controlling the spread of this corona virus has won the hearts of their loyal citizens like South Korea, Germany, Ethiopia, etc. On the contrary, many Americans in specific states who have severely suffered from economical grudge and lost their loved ones have negative perceptions on the administration following its failure to take appropriate measures.

Loose comments of Trump naming ‘China Virus’ than taking necessary measures like Germany and South Korea has made the world super power lessen its image. Experts are expecting that President Trump may announce huge packages to win back the hearts of the citizens and the industry.

Herald: What are the major recent observations from India and Africa?

Dr. Ravi: India, being a giant manufacturer of human pharmaceutical drugs and vaccines in the world, supples major share of all medicines including that of AIDS and different types of Cancer.

University of Oxford has started testing their vaccine on 800 humans and they anticipate vaccine approval by September 2020. It gave an order to Indian pharmacy giant, Serum Institute of India, to produce 40 million vaccines at cost of 0.5 cents each.

With regard to Indian Grievance handling mechanism, National and Regional Toll-free Helpline numbers were announced to smoothly handle the public issues with a high speed of response on humanitarian grounds. Even state ministers personally visited the houses of the needy, to demonstrate their commitment in resolving the problems of the society. This shows local administrator’s accountability to the common man in the region. But, the miseries of internal migrant labourers were not handled properly.

Indian Government gave full coverage of Health Insurance and Life coverage of INR 5 million to all frontline healthcare workers for a period of 90 days without any premium payment.

Observations from Africa; Oil price crisis had hardest hit on Angola, Nigeria and South Africa’s economy in African Context. Fast growing economies like Ethiopia, Rwanda, Senegal, Ghana are not majorly affected due to timely Government initiatives like raising public awareness, people’s acceptance to follow the instructions accurately as per Government directions and community level leadership commitment have played a key role in controlling the pandemic.

Many African countries are majorly dependent on imports including food supplies. Import food bill for Africa is close to $40 billion per annum. Even in this Covid-19 crisis, negotiations are on-going to keep food value chain open within the countries, not for passenger travel.

Good news is that Covid-19 presence in

Africa is at very minimal due to having enough time to understand the nature of pandemic. In Ethiopia, Prime Minister’s call to the nation to maintain social distancing has been taken seriously by the public in their daily activities including private and public transportation with 50% capacity to the maximum, since there are challenges in local transportation within the cities, ‘work from home’ guidelines are well exercised in addition.

In Ethiopia, major sectors badly hit by Covid-19 are; Airline Industry, Flower Industry, Tourism and Service Industry, Textile and Apparel Industry, SME’s, Informal Sector, Real Estate and Construction due to postponement of decisions at corporate level and household level.

Ethiopian Safety Net Program has given benefits to 8.5 million rural and 600,000 urban people of informal economy. Tax waivers are proposed to support entrepreneurs. But, Balance of Payments is the major challenge to the economic growth of Ethiopian Economy, in addition to insufficient foreign exchange reserves.

Overall, it is anticipated that there may be modifications or delay in the grants to support Africa in general and Ethiopia in particular due to donor countries themselves demand support to fight against Covid-19. Hence, budget expenditure needs to be adjusted for this last quarter of 2012 (GC) and the upcoming 2013 (GC).

On a positive note, there are transformational opportunities to Africa in general and Ethiopia in particular, where Global IT and other Industries are going to focus now on Africa’s potential to move things forward with enhanced infrastructure to the common man’s reach. Soon rapid technological changes are going to touch the soils of Africa.

As per African Union directives, Ethiopia has diverted Peace and Security fund in combating against Covid-19 by taking preventive measures.

Covid-19 has positive side effects on some. Ethiopia has showered smiles over 4,000 prisoners by letting them free from their punishments of petty crimes and the same norm is observed in few more countries.

As a whole, people started eating mostly homemade food which helps strengthen family relations and public health. Pollution levels have also come down due to lesser movement of vehicles and shut down of

industries. Birds and animals are roaming freely around their habitats.

Herald: Some Economists regard it as a recession and some as depression, why?

Dr. Ravi: If Economy is like a boiler maintaining sufficient heat, we suddenly completely stopped all economic activities and when we restart them again, we don’t know how long it will take to reach the level before. It is anticipated as medium-term recession by ‘U-shape’ recovery.

In post Covid-19, Government relief and stimulus economic policies will decide the pace or speed of the recovery. It depends upon the aggressiveness of the leadership to take control of the situation by implementing corrective measures to push forward.

We are not sure about the reoccurrence of Covid-19 to those confirmed positive and also billions of people across the globe are in lockdown.

To combat this health crisis USA released $ 2.5 Trillion, around 10% of its economy in spite of having more than $3 Trillion as budget deficit. Indian Government also announced $260 Billion Corona virus Rescue Package recently in addition to the ongoing direct payments and provision of food supplies targeting at giving relief to the millions of poor and deprived. Where need arises, some people reaped benefits unconditionally due to discretion of the concerned officer.

Herald: Do you think there is accurate spread of information?

Dr. Ravi: Though Covid-19 discovered on 17th November 2019, China’s failure of passing information to the rest of the world is the biggest criticism. If China has done this correctly, the world might have saved many lives and rescued global economy. But Chinese officials did not notify until the end of December 2020. Recovery and Rehabilitation Policies are expected to be made only after having accurate information and observing for more than 2 months during post Covid-19 crisis.

Herald: How do you feel that life could get back to normal throughout the world?

Dr. Ravi: The problem has been tackled rightly in China. But many countries like Hong Kong have not yet settled and people are working from home.

China was successful in controlling the spread because of the tool ‘contact tracing’. All moments of Covid-19 positive were tracked and people who came to contact with the positive were quarantined, all of them were tested, and positive contacts were sent for isolation.

‘Contact tracing’ technique was not taken seriously by USA, Italy and other countries and thereby pandemic was severe.

South Korea, next to China, has aggressively tested and implemented contact tracing in the early stages and suppressed the pandemic.

Herald: What lessons need to be drawn from Covid-19 health crisis?

Dr. Ravi: Several lessons have to be learned from the pandemic. First, Public Health Facilities need to be strengthened.

Second, strong sustainable economic growth can be achieved only through mutual cooperation among global leaders.

Third, protecting lower income category

people’s livelihood is the responsibility of the Government. An income disparity among the fellow citizens needs to be diminished over a period of time.

Some people say there is a need to move from Capitalism centric to Socialism centric and Global supply chain needs to be revised due to over dependence on single source.

Another concern we have to take into account is that globalization doesn’t only bring benefits, at times leads to pandemics like this. It throws a challenge to the leadership about their preparedness to handle any crisis such as this in the future. At individual level, having modern life against traditional life is not always virtuous. It revealed that this generation can also be able to lead life in less convenient world with limited choices, less freedom, without coffee shops, clubs, etc.

In addition, more standard economic policies are needed in the post Covid-19 crisis recovery period with regard to rebuilding the global economy to the next high levels. Plus to that, Tax Reforms are much needed to identify those categories of people taken advantage of the loopholes of the present tax laws across the globe. Example, Wealth Taxation.

Fresh thinking of innovation, collaboration for universal well-being is the need of the hour and call of the day, too.

The whole world is experimenting ‘work from home’ tool. The number is on the rise, with high speed broadband connectivity ‘home may be the workplace’ for life time to some of the workforce in the coming years. And it would result in savings in rent, utilities, furniture, child care, etc. The idea of office space is just going to be vanished in stages and in the short run daily visits to office might be reduced to 50% resulting in task-based employee performance.

New eco-policies are to be put in place to safeguard the environment to live better.

Countries are moving towards self-reliance than global integration.

Post Covid-19, the service sector which accounts for more than 40% to US GDP and much more to some of the countries has needed government support till it regains the consumer support.

Additionally, adopting innovative strategies in service delivery in all sectors may bring significant changes so as to recover the economy soon.

There has to be accurate information sharing platform across the globe. We have lost many lives outside China only due to lack of this and leadership delay in response to timely take measures to control this pandemic.

Herald: How do you see the present situation?

Dr. Ravi: At present, we don’t have vaccination, medicine, and even adequate testing equipment. Innovation in production is needed to conduct mass testing at household level. There are supply chain challenges in terms of production, distribution due to boarder restrictions. Enormous administrative efforts are required to open up things to normal.

In sum, it is better to optimistically exploit the chance the COVID-19 has brought taking what Albert Einstein said into account, “In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity.”

Global economy. . .

Cooperation among the countries is the lesson to be learnt from this crisis. It has awakened the global leaders on health and safety measures. Corona is the common enemy to mankind in the universe, results in human tragedy with economic cost and exacerbates unemployment levels by more than 20% from the earlier levels

One to One/Herald Guest

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD SUNDAY EDITION 21 JUNE 2020 PAGE 28

BERHANENA SELAM PRINTING ENTERPRISE

Global economy in the eyes of COVID-19 era BY AMBO MEKASA

The Ethiopian Herald (EH)has been covering different issues across the nation and worldwide on its guest column. In today’s edition and the coming one, we shall delve into the Corona virus impacts over all sectors. Dr. Ravi Kanth Makarla, an Assistant Professor in the Department of Accounting & Finance, College of Business and Economics at Ambo University. EH had a brief moment with Kanth. Herald: How do you anticipate the flow of Global Investment?Dr. Ravi: When we observe situations taking the present context as a frame of reference, the flow of global investment might be slowdown in the coming years because every country is insisting on investors capitalizing on homeland involvement, giving extra benefits to those entrepreneurs to help them shift from foreign land to homeland. This scenario may help some countries grab new opportunities in establishing clusters of manufacturing and service sectors.Herald: The recent flexibility in banking norms, in your view?Dr. Ravi: Nobel Prize in economics 2019 winner Mrs. Esther Duflo has discussed the need of using mobile money and agent banking tools for transferring benefits of the various policies of the Government directly to the households in developing countries. This will enable to beef up governance efficiency with a view to reaching out to the needy and reducing bureaucracy. In addition, the financial institutions have to make flexible norms to free the borrowers from the burden of monthly instalments via giving various options of postponement for a few months along with waiver of interest at individual and institutional levels.Business, being an efficient game, helps SMEs adopt an on-going transformation of business process and take part in the new age business models.Information sharing by international cooperation is very much needed for a win-win situation.Herald: Does the demography have any role on the impact of Covid-19?Dr. Ravi: In general, older population were financially stable as they have enough wealth and assets by taking part in early stage of economic transition. But the younger generation are striving hard for their basic needs. In many European countries, due to demographic imbalance, younger generations are burdened by indirectly sponsoring older generation. This may change due to policy modifications and heavy loss of lives of older generation in the years to come. It is not just about income earners against the livelihood of older generation. But, asking younger generation to pay the cost of older generation has an impact on the life style of income earners. Herald: What is your observation on ‘Defence Spending’?Dr. Ravi: World biggest economies USA and China are spending heavily on their defence pumping an outlay of $ 732 billion and $261 billion per annum respectively. As per earlier

declaration of President Trump, America wants to modernize its defence by enhancing budget proportion in the years to come. This is resulting negative impact on developmental activities of developing countries, where policy makers have considered defence modernization in addition to Covid-19 recovery. Herald: What is your reflection on the dynamics of Geo Politics between China and other developed World?Dr. Ravi: International Relations were in strain even before the outburst of corona virus crisis, they were worsened after the incidence of current health crisis.Many countries become spectators of USA and China cold economic war due to fear of negative effects of interference between global giants in economy and military power. The countries’ image is the basic reason for this quarrel. Peace needs to be established between USA and China by initiating negotiations with mediation of global players to combat the common enemy Covid-19 and to prosper with economic growth and sustainability.Personally, I am a big admirer of the accomplishments of modern China. I am very much impressed by the dynamism and entrepreneurism of that society. It’s amazing what China has abled to achieve. Even in Covid-19 crisis, it supported many countries on voluntary and philanthropic basis, which is worth praising. USA must see China not as an opponent rather as collaborator or partner in the transition of global economic growth. China’s success leads many countries’ success including America. Entrepreneurship in China has lifted millions of Chinese out of poverty and provided the world with benefits. If

any country wants to stop Chinese success, they must be ready to face many challenges internally. Therefore, many countries want to reap benefits from the relationship with China rather than straining the relationship.I personally feel that the present administration leading by President Trump is showing more aggressiveness towards China. The same administrations led by earlier leaders of U.S were actually encouraged China in achieving great success in the world trade.I believe that Chinese Scientists may be the first to come up with vaccine to fight against Covid-19. We must take the benefits of working together than indulging in politics against China or any other nation. The world needs cooperation and competitive treasury than political rivalry.Scientists across the globe must cooperate with one another to find an end to this crisis by inventing vaccine at the earliest time possible, not by exacerbating confrontation based on the nationality. America has lost more than 86,000 lives during last few months accounted for more than lost lives in Vietnam War during 1995-75. America alone weighs around 1/3rd of positive cases and of deaths due to Covid-19 in the world. Labelling as “China Virus” by initiating blame game is not a noble gesture from the American President with unfounded proof against China. The U.S. must realise that when AIDS first identified in America (1981) and hunting so many nations, mainly the African states, nobody in the pointed their fingers towards any nation.Herald: How do you see the global cooperation?Dr. Ravi: We can’t put all the blame on USA. But we can see general deterioration of cooperation among the global leaders,

with recent example of G20 issues. Global response is needed to take measures for bringing togetherness in practice. In recent developments, USA has stopped funding World Health Organisation (WHO) citing the reasons of cover-up the information in favour of China. However, the UNO member nations are able to raise more than $ 80 Million a day without the participation of USA to fight against the pandemic. This vividly shows the strength of unity among UNO member nations and this kind of cooperation is required to fight against any crises and help the poor and weaker nations become stronger. Herald: What are your views on IMF Notification saying that the world economy is facing worst depression after the great depression?Dr. Ravi: The world as a whole and countries in specific horizon are having more pessimistic estimates. As we study more, we can find the impact is very wide spread than what appears or presumed to be. India, China and a few more nations are showing positive growth after shrinking in their estimation of GDP output.There is no concrete estimation about the end of this pandemic. The longer the pandemic, the greater recession would be.China is struggling to get back to normal scenario because it could not be able to operate at maximum levels of production process by facing reduction estimates of global demand.In the global economy, pilling up of Government Debt, Corporate Debt and even Household Debt are at historical peaks.Herald: What is your opinion about the changing scenario of balance of power globally?Dr. Ravi: Everyone in this world has stunned about the degree of chaos in USA. The healthcare system was found to be inadequate; during initial days of pandemic they don’t have clear statistics about the availability of number of beds, number of ventilators, etc. It is a serious blow to American image. People always believed that American Technology, Healthcare, etc. are the best in the world. But, in the present scenario, the American image has come down. The situation is not different in respect of so called developed or super power nations in the Europe as well.On the contrary, Ethiopian Government’s commitment to save both lives of the people and the economy has boosted its image in the global arena. All the world leaders have faced the leadership challenge to respond to this new pandemic health crisis. In this challenge, South Korea and Germany stood as models for other countries for taking measures much earlier than others with leadership commitment and innovation.

The so called developed and super power nations of the world completely failed to give needed attention and thereby lost lots of lives (more than 86,000 in USA) compared to 5 lives in Ethiopia. In this common global challenge, medical scientists are passing updated information to their leaders and acting upon it. It is the only leadership to take forward necessary measures to cope with this health crisis.

See Global economy...page 25