02. understanding investments and alternatives

7/31/2019 02. Understanding Investments and Alternatives

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1

Understanding Investments


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2

Objectives

To understand the investments field ascurrently practiced

To help you make investment decisionsthat will enhance your economic welfare

To create realistic expectations about

the outcome of investment decisions


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3

Investments Defined

Investments is the study of the processof committing funds to one or more

assets Emphasis on holding financial assets and

marketable securities

Concepts also apply to real assets

Foreign financial assets should not beignored


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Why Study Investments?

Most individuals make investmentdecisions sometime

Need sound framework for managing andincreasing wealth

Essential part of a career in the field

Security analyst, portfolio manager,registered representative, CertifiedFinancial Planner, Chartered FinancialAnalyst


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Investment Decisions

Underlying investment decisions: thetradeoff between expected return and

risk Expected return is not usually the same as

realized return

Risk: the possibility that the realizedreturn will be different than the expectedreturn


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The Tradeoff b/w

ER and Risk

Investors manage

risk at a cost -lower expectedreturns (ER)

Any level ofexpected returnand risk can beattained

Risk

ER

Risk-free Rate

Bonds

Stocks


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The Investment Decision Process

Two-step process:

Security analysis and valuation

Necessary to understand securitycharacteristics

Portfolio management

Selected securities viewed as a single unit

How and when should it be revised? How should portfolio performance be

measured?


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Factors Affecting the Process

Uncertainty in ex post returnsdominates decision process

Future unknown and must be estimated Foreign financial assets: opportunity to

enhance return or reduce risk

Institutional investors important How efficient are financial markets in

processing new information?


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Individual Investor Life Cycle

The individual investors life cycle canoften be described using four separate

phases or stages: Accumulation Phase

Consolidation Phase

Spending Phase Gifting Phase


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Accumulation Phase

Early to middle years of careers

Attempting to satisfy intermediate and long-

term goals Net worth is usually small, debt may be heavy

Long-term investment horizon means usuallywilling to take moderately high risks in order

to make above-average returns


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Consolidation Phase

Past career midpoint

Have paid off much of their

accumulated debt Earnings now exceed living expenses,

so the balance can be invested

Time horizon is still long-term, somoderately high risk investments arestill attractive


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Spending Phase

Usually begins at retirement

Saving before, prudent spending now

Living expenses covered by SocialSecurity and retirement plans

Changing emphasis towardpreservation of capital, but still wantinvestment values to keep pace withinflation


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Gifting Phase

Can be concurrent with spending phase

If resources allow, individuals can now

use excess assets to provide gifts toother individuals or organizations

Estate planning becomes important,

especially tax considerations


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The Portfolio Management

Process

A four step process:

1. Construct a policy statement

2. Study current financial conditions andforecast future trends

3. Construct a portfolio

4. Monitor needs and conditions


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Process

1. Policy statement

Specifies investment goals and acceptable

risk levels The road map that guides all investment

decisions


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Process

2. Study current financial and economicconditions and forecast future trends

Determine strategies that should meetgoals within the expected environment

Requires monitoring and updates sincefinancial markets are ever-changing


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Process

3. Construct the portfolio

Given the policy statement and the

expected conditions, go about investing Allocate available funds to meet goals

while managing risk


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Process

4. Monitor and update

Revise policy statement as needed

Monitor changing financial and economicconditions

Evaluate portfolio performance

Modify portfolio investments accordingly


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The Policy Statement

Understand and articulate realistic goals Know yourself

Know the risks and potential rewards frominvestments

Learn about standards for evaluatingportfolio performance

Know how to judge average performance Adjust for risk


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The Policy Statement

Dont try to navigatewithout a map!

Important Inputs:

InvestmentObjectives

InvestmentConstraints


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Investment Objectives

Need to specify returnand risk objectives

Need to consider the

risk tolerance of theinvestor

Return goals need tobe consistent with

risk tolerance


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Possible broad goals:

Capital preservation

Maintain purchasing power Minimize the risk of loss

Capital appreciation Achieve portfolio growth through capital

gains Accept greater risk


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Current income

Look to generate income rather than capital gains

May be preferred in spending phase

Relatively low risk

Total return

Combining income returns and reinvestment with

capital gains Moderate risk


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Investment Constraints

These factors may limit or at least impact theinvestment choices:

Liquidity needs

How soon will the money be needed?

Time horizon How able is the investor to ride out several bad

years?

Legal and Regulatory Factors Legal restrictions often constrain decisions

Retirement regulations


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Investment Constraints

Tax Concerns

Realized capital gains vs. Ordinary income?

Taxable vs. Tax-exempt bonds?

Regular IRA vs. Roth IRA?

401(k) and 403(b) plans

Unique needs and preferences

Perhaps the investor wishes to avoid types ofinvestments for ethical reasons


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Investment Education

The type of information necessary toconstruct a good policy statement is neithercommon sense or common knowledge.

Many investors fail to diversify. Many fail to plan completely.

Data indicates that many Americans havegreatly under-invested for the future.

The bottom line: If you do not plan for thefuture, you will likely not be prepared for it.


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Asset Allocation Decisions

Four decisions in an investment strategy:

What asset classes should be considered?

What should be the normal weight for eachasset class?

What are the allowable ranges for theweights?

What specific securities should bepurchased?

Th I f A


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The Importance of Asset

Allocation

The asset allocation decision (which classesand at what weights) is very important. Usingfund data:

About 90% of return variability over time can beexplained by asset allocation.

About 40% of the differences between returns canbe explained by differences in asset allocation.

Asset allocation is thus the major factor thatdrives portfolio risk and return.

Ri k/R Hi d A


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Risk/Return History and Asset

Allocation

Looking at return data on various asset classesindicate some important factors for investors:

Even apparent low-risk investments like T-

bills can have considerable reinvestment risk Over long time horizons, stocks have always

outperformed low-risk investments. So the additional risk over shorter time horizons

seems to all but disappear over time. The only way to maintain purchasing power,

net of taxes and inflation, is by investing incommon stock.

A t All ti d C lt l


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Asset Allocation and Cultural

Differences

Differences in social, political, and taxenvironments influence asset allocation.

For instance, 58% of pension fund assets areinvested in equities in the U.S.

79% in equities in United Kingdom, where highaverage inflation impacts this choice

8% in equities in Germany, where generousgovernment pensions and greater risk aversionseem to play a strong role


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Active vs. Passive Management

Active Management

Finding undervalued securities

Market timingPassive Management

No attempt to find undervalued

securities No attempt to time

Holding an efficient portfolio

M j Cl f Fi i l


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Major Classes of Financial

Assets or Securities

Debt

Money market instruments

Bonds Common stock

Preferred stock

Derivative securities


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Investments and Innovation

Technology and Delivery of Service

Computer advancements

More complete and timely informationGlobalization

Domestic firms compete in global

markets Performance in regions depends on

other regions

Causes additional elements of risk


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Key Trends - Securitization

Securitization & Credit Enhancement

Offers opportunities for investors and

originators Changes in financial institutions and

regulation

Improvement in informationcapabilities

Credit enhancement and its role

K T d


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Key Trends -

Financial Engineering

Repackaging Services of FinancialIntermediaries

Bundling and unbundling of cash flowsSlicing and dicing of cash flows

Examples: strips, CMOs, dual

purpose funds, principal/interestsplits


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The Future

Globalization continues and offers moreopportunities

Securitization continues to develop

Continued development of derivatives andexotics

Strong fundamental foundation is critical

Integration of investments & corporatefinance


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1

Direct Investment


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2

Non-marketable Financial Assets

Commonly owned by individuals

Represent direct exchange of claims

between issuer and investor Usually very liquid or easy to convert to

cash without loss of value

Examples: Savings accounts, SavingBonds, CoDs, money market depositaccounts (MMDAs)


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3

Money Market Securities

Marketable: claims are negotiable orsalable in the marketplace

Short-term, liquid, relatively low riskdebt instruments

Issued by governments and private

firms Examples: T-Bills, Negotiable CoDs,

Commercial paper, EuroDollars,

REPOS, BA


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Money Market Instruments

Treasury bills

Certificates of deposit

Commercial Paper Bankers Acceptances

Eurodollars

Repurchase Agreements (RPs) andReverse RPs

Federal Funds


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T-bills

Sold at a discount (no interest coupon),denominations of $10,000

91 and 182 day maturity T-bills issued weekly; 52

week bills issued monthly; sales by auction Competitive bids are orders for a given quantity of

bills at a specific offered price. Order is filled if bid ishigh enough. Noncompetitive bids receive average

price of successful bids. Income earned is taxed at Federal but not state or

local levels


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Money Market Instrument Yields

Yields on Money Market Instrumentsare not always directly comparable

Factors influencing yields Par value vs. investment value

360 vs. 365 days assumed in a year

(366 leap year) Bond equivalent yield


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T-bills (contd.)

Consider: $10,000 par value T-bill,purchased for $9,600, matures in 6

months. What is the effective annualinterest rate?

Answer: 400/9600 = .0417 semiannually

Thus APR = (1.0417)x(1.0417)=8.51%


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T-bills (contd.)

Bank discount method is quoted infinancial pages: T-bills discount from

par of $400 is annualized based on360 day year. Thus $400 discount isannualized as$400x(360/182)=$791.21, then divide

this no. by $10,000 to get bank discountyield of 7.912%


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Bank Discount Rate (T-Bills)

rBD = bank discount rate

P = market price of the T-bill

n = number of days to maturity

rBD =10,000 - P

10,000x360

n

90-day T-bill, P = $9,875

rBD =10,000 - 9,875

10,000x

360

90= 5%

Example


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Bond Equivalent Yield

Cant compare T-bill directly to bond

360 vs 365 days

Return is figured on par vs. price paid Adjust the bank discounted rate to make

it comparable


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Bond Equivalent Yield

P = price of the T-bill

n = number of days to maturity

rBEY =10,000 - P

Px

365n

rBEY = 10,000 - 9,8759,875

x 36590

rBEY = .0127 x 4.0556 = .0513 = 5.13%

Example Using Sample T-Bill


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4

Capital Market Securities

Marketable debt with maturity greaterthan one year and ownership shares

More risky than money marketsecurities

Fixed-income securities have a

specified payment schedule Dates and amount of interest and principal

payments known in advance


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5


Major bond types:

Federal government securities - T-bonds

Federal agency securities - GNMAs Federally sponsored credit agency

securities - FNMAs, SLMAs

Municipal securities - General obligationbonds, Revenue bonds, serial bonds

Tax implications for investors


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Major bond types (continued):

Corporate bonds

Usually unsecured debt maturing in 20-40years, paying semi-annual interest, callable,with par value of $1,000

Convertible bonds may be exchanged foranother asset

Risk that issuer may default on payments

Securitized assets: Mortgage-backed


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Equity Securities

Represents an ownership interest

Preferred stockholders paid after debt

but before common stockholders Dividend known, fixed in advance

May be cumulative if dividend omitted

Common stockholders are residualclaimants on income and assets

Voting rights important


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Derivative Securities

Securities whose value is derived fromanother security

Futures and options contracts arestandardized and performance isguaranteed by a third party

Risk management tools

Warrants are options issued by firms


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Options

Exchange-traded options are created byinvestors, not corporations

Call(Put): Buyer has the right but notthe obligation to purchase(sell) a fixedquantity from(to) the seller at a fixedprice before a certain date

Right is sold in the market at a price

Increases return possibilities


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Futures

Futures contract: A standardizedagreement between a buyer and seller

to make future delivery of a fixed assetat a fixed price

A good faith deposit, called margin, isrequired of both the buyer and seller to

reduce default risk Used to hedge the risk of price changes


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Indirect Investing


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Investment Company

A financial company that sells shares in

itself to the public and uses these funds to

invest in a portfolio of securities.


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Types of Investment Companies

Unit Investment Trust

Mutual Funds


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Mutual Funds

Mutual Funds are operated by Asset Management Companies(AMC) which exist in the form of a corporation, owned by itsshareholders.

The AMC launches new funds through the establishment of aTrust Deed, entered between the Asset Management Company

and the Trustee, which in most cases is the Central DepositoryCompany of Pakistan Limited, with due approval from the SECPunder the Non-Banking Finance Companies (Establishment andRegulation) Rules, 2003 (the Rules).

The CDC performs the functions of the custodian and trustee,

whereas the AMC can act as the registrar or can appoint anexternal registrar.

Banking/ financial companies maybe authorized to act asdistributors/ sales agents. The Board of Directors must alsoapprove and appoint a legal advisor and auditor for legal and

compliance affairs.


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A. Pooled Diversification

1. Professional Money Managers

2. Combines the Funds of many people

with similar investment goals 3. Receive shares of stock in the

mutual fund; a pooled common

investment. 4. An indirect investment

B Attractions and Drawbacks of


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B. Attractions and Drawbacks of

Mutual Fund Ownership

1. Diversification

2. Full-time Professional Management

3. Modest Capital Investment 4. Services offered

a. Automatic reinvestment of dividends

b. Withdrawal plans c. Check writing privileges

B Attractions and Drawbacks of


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B. Attractions and Drawbacks of

Mutual Fund Ownership

5. Convenience a. Easy to acquire

b. Paperwork and record keeping

c. Prices are widely quoted

6. Lack of liquidity a. Normally must be sold back to the fund

b. No brokerage commissions

7. Variety


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What You Should Know

Fees: All mutual funds have fees and expenses thatare paid by investors.

These costs are significant because they affect the

return on the investment; therefore investors need tocalculate their returns net of all such deductions.

The fees and any other charges are usually mentionedin the offering documents and the fund brochure printed

by the Asset Management Company. Fees generally fall into two categories:

a) management fees and

b) load charges.


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What You Should Know

Management fees is calculated as a fixed percentage of theaverage net assets managed by the firm for providing office spaceand professional management, including all accounting andadministrative services.

The second category is sales commissions described as front-endloads (sales charges when you buy) or back-end loads (salescharges when you sell).

No-load funds, as the name implies, do not have front-end orback-end sales charges.

These fees are for undertaking the distribution and selling of thefunds.


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Taxation on Mutual Funds

The income of mutual funds is exempt from IncomeTax, if not less than 90% of the income of the year,as reduced by capital gains is distributed amongstthe unit holders as dividend or bonus units.


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Taxation on Unit Holders

Holders of mutual funds are subject to Income Taxon dividend income received from a mutual fund(excluding the amount of dividend paid out ofcapital gains on listed securities) as under: PublicCompany and Insurance Company 5%

If received by any other person, including a non-resident 10%

Capital gain on disposition of units in a mutual fundis exempted from tax till such time that capital gainon sale of securities listed on the stock exchangesis exempt from such tax.


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Tax Credit

As funds are listed at the stock exchanges, unit holders of themutual funds, other than a company, are entitled to a taxcredit under section 62 of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001 onpurchase of new units.

The amount on which tax credit is allowed is the lower of (a)amount invested in purchase of new units, (b) ten percent ofthe taxable income of the unit holder, or (c ) Rupees ThreeHundred Thousand (PKR. 300,000), and is calculated byapplying the average rate of tax of the unit holder for the tax

year. If the units are disposed within twelve months, the amount of

tax payable for the tax year in which the units are disposed isincreased by the amount of credit allowed.

How to Develop an


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p

Investment Plan?

The first step to successful investing for any investor is todevelop a clear understanding of his expected return from theinvestment and define his risk tolerance to help him identify asuitable choice of investment.

1. Investors need to establish financial goals with respect to

the requirements from the investment and time horizon forrealizing these goals.

Goals may be immediate such as making a down payment on a home,paying for a wedding, or creating a college fund.

Long-term goals could be like paying for college or retirement.

Establishing goals helps to assess how much money you need to invest,

how much the investments must earn, and when the money will berequired.

How to Develop an


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Investment Plan?

2. Investors need to study the financial markets to understandthe options available to them and forecast a realistic marketexpectation of future performance.

Setting realistic expectations about investments and about

market performance is an important part of the investmentplan.

Securities do not always rise in value, and when they fall, thedownturns can sometimes be lengthy.

A well-conceived, diversified personal investment plan can

help against these downturns, and give a measure of comfortduring market volatility.

How to Develop an


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Investment Plan?

3. Investors need to study the financial markets to understandthe options available to them and forecast a realistic marketexpectation of future performance.

Setting realistic expectations about investments and aboutmarket performance is an important part of the investment

plan. Securities do not always rise in value, and when they fall, the

downturns can sometimes be lengthy.

A well-conceived, diversified personal investment plan canhelp against these downturns, and give a measure of comfort

during market volatility. 4. Investors need to build their investment plan keeping in

view liquidity and financial limitations. For instance, investorsmay need to make payments in the near future which restrictthem from committing large sums of money for an indefinite

period.

How to Develop an


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Investment Plan?

5. All mutual funds involve investment risk,including the possible loss of principal. This principle of investing is known as the risk/ reward tradeoff.

When forming a plan, therefore the investor needs to understand

his threshold risk tolerance levels.

Is stability more important than higher returns, or can short-termlosses be tolerated for potential long-term gains?

6. Investors should be able to set risk and returnobjectives after these considerations. Risk and return objectives must be set in specific terms for

instance an investor may require 15% return p.a. with anexpected standard deviation of 2% for the next 5 years.

Risks of Investing in Mutual


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g a

Funds

Credit risk - potential that an investment (specifically fixed-incomesecurities) will go down when assigned a negative rating (downgraded)by a reputable credit rating service.

Default risk - risk associated with an issuer of a debt instrument thatmay not have the financial ability to meet regular interest payments or isincapable of repaying the debt at maturity.

Equity investment risk - risk resulting from changes in a specificcompany or industry developments and prospects, as well as changesin interest rates, economic conditions and stock market news.

Interest rate risk - risk resulting from increased interest rates in themarket place, that the income earned from an original investment will

not be worth as much as the going market rates. Liquidity risk - inability to sell a security reasonably quickly at the

prevailing market price or convert an asset into cash as quickly aspossible.

Political risk - potential for changes in government to impact the valueof an investment. It may also include policy changes made by

governments.

Fund Reporting: A Highly


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p g g y

Regulated Industry

To keep investors informed about the funds performance themanagement publishes;

daily returns on their website,

monthly fund managers reports and

quarterly and annual audited accounts.

Legal documents affecting the funds operations

Prospectus/ Offering document - A mutual funds prospectusdescribes the funds goals, fees and charges, investment strategiesand risks, as well as information on how to buy and sell units. TheSECP requires a fund to provide a full prospectus before acceptingany investment.

Trust Deed - Agreement signed, between the trustee and the fund

sponsors, which details the appointment of the trustee/ custodian andthe roles and responsibilities as trustee and custodian which includesafekeeping and possession of the funds assets, movements of thefunds assets and their investment.

Fund Reporting: A Highly


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p g g y

Regulated Industry

Financial Statements - These statements show theperformance of the fund in the outgoing period and help theinvestor evaluate how successfully the fund has achieved itsstated objectives. Shareholder reports typically include twomain types of information a) the funds financial statements

and performance and b) a list of the securities the fund held inits portfolio at the end of the most recent accounting period.

Reports and Website Information -AMCs regularly updatetheir websites with daily fund prices, whereas monthly fund

managers reports are added when the month ends, whichdetails the market conditions, reasons for the fundsperformance and future outlook.


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C. Essential Characteristics

Open-ended Funds

Close-ended Funds

Hedge Funds Not technically mutual funds

Not subject to SEC regulation

Organized as limited partnership

Common feature is use of leverage


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Net Asset Value


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If NAV > Market Price, Fund is selling at Discount

If NAV < Market Price, Fund is selling at Premium

Net Asset Value


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Mutual Fund Expenses

Load

Front-end Load

Back-end Load

Marketing & Distribution Fees (12-b1)


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D. Types of Funds

1. Growth

Goal is capital appreciation

2. Maximum Growth Highly speculative, seeking large profits

from capital gains

a. Often buy stocks of small, unseasoned

companies b. Highly speculative


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D. Types of Funds (contd.)

3. Income CURRENT income is main objective

a. Interest income

b. Dividend income

4. Balanced Funds Objective is to earn both capital gains and

current income a. High-grade common stocks (60 - 75%)

b. Fixed income securities (25 - 40%)


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5. Small Company

Invest in small companies.

6. International Can invest in one region or area of the

world

Can invest in specific country


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Bond Funds

Objective is to invest in bonds

a. Income is primary objective

b. Two advantages Liquidity

Diversification


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6. Money Market Funds

Offers the individual investor access tohigh-yielding money market instruments

a. Bank CDs

b. Treasury Bills

c. Commercial Paper


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7. Dual Funds Invest in Money Market and

Invest in Capital Market

8. Exchange-Traded Funds(Indexed Funds)


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9. Specialty Funds - Single Industry

a. Option trading

b. Commodity funds

c. Oil drilling d. Cattle funds

e. Electronics

f. Gold

g. Chemicals

h. Health


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E. Special Services

1. Saving Plans

Investor adds funds on a regular basis

2. Automatic Reinvestment Plans

Dividends and capital gains are reinvested inadditional shares

3. Regular Income

Through withdrawal plans, the investor canreceive periodic repayment or income Shares or Dollars


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E. Special Services (contd.)

4. Conversion Privileges

Allows the investor the right to switch fromone fund to another

a. Must confine switches within the same familyof funds

b. Usually no transfer charges


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E. Special Services (contd.)

5. Check Writing Privileges

a. Shareholders have the right to writechecks drawn on the Mutual Fund account


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Other Advantages

Professional management

Convenience

Market accessibility to small investors


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F. Mutual Funds Risk

Because Mutual Funds are so well diversified(typically), the inherent risk is similar to that inthe Market

However, Specialty Fund risk can varysignificantly from overall Market risk

5 30 AssetsSystematic

Market

p


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F. Mutual Funds Risk (contd.)

Less Risk More Risk

Less Expected Returns More Expected Returns

Money Market Funds

Bond Funds

Hybrid Funds

Large Capital Stock Funds

Small Capital Stock Funds

Specialized Stock Funds

International Stock Funds


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Deadly Mutual Fund Myths

1. The Conventional Wisdom Myth

This is the number one mistake mostinvestors make. Investors look at historic

trends that have already made big gainsrather than identify funds that arepositioned to make profits in the future.


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2. The Diversification Myth

If you own at least 10 different mutualfundsyoullhave a diversified portfolio.

Owning 10 mutual fundswontassure youof anything but a lot of work trying to stayon top of them all. In fact, you can have awell diversified portfolio with just 4 to 6

funds or you can have a portfolio of 15funds with very little diversification.


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3. The Momentum Myth

The easiest way to beat the market is tobuy lastyears top-performing funds.

The fact is that last years best funds are just aslikely to be thisyears dogs. Blindly following thisstrategy is very dangerous for most investors. Thevery top-performing funds are usually those that

took a lot of risk and happened to bet on the rightmarket sector at the right time.

h k h


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4. The Market Timing Myth

The safest strategy is to moveeverything into money market fundswhen the market is declining and switch

everything back into stock funds whenthe market is rising.

This is a losers game. It has been provenover and over that investors are incapableof timing the market or identifying majorbull or bear markets.

5. The Long-Term Performance


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Myth

The best measure of a funds quality is itslong-term performance.

There is a fair amount of truth to this statement,but too many investors follow some brokersadvice to buy this fund, it has a great 10-yearrecord,without asking some key questions. Who

earned that record? Is the manager responsiblefor its returns still at the helm? If not, the recordcould be meaningless.

6 Th N f d M h


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6. The New fund Myth

You should wait until a fund has atleast a 3-year track record before

investing.


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Some Facts about Mutual Funds

First mutual fund: Boston, 1924.

Slow growth, initially.

Advent of money market mutual funds,

1972. Regulation Q.

Total assets in stock and bond mutualfunds:

1940: $0.4 billion. 1990: $568.5 billion

2000: $5,120.0 billion.

Gl b l I


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Global Issues

Worldwide growth in mutual fund investmentnot as great as in the U.S.

$1,626 trillion in 1992 to $4,833 trillion in 2000

200% growth compared to 340% in U.S. Larger returns in U.S.stock markets

Greatest development in countries with mostdeveloped markets

Opportunities from declining Japanese markets

Mutual Funds Industry in


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Pakistan

NATIONAL INVESTMENT TRUST1962

INVESTMENT CORPORATION OFPAKISTAN 1966

Mutual Funds

Close-ended Funds

Opend Ended Funds

Voluntary Pension Funds

02. understanding investments and alternatives

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