Towards EBFM

Ecosystems Decision Tools WorkshopKey Largo, FLFeb 16, 2005

Chad Demarest, NEFMC

Trends, emerging issues and data needs

Presentation Overview

• NEFMC: the basics• Trends and predictions• Emerging issues• Data/information needs

NEFMCo One of eight US regional FMC’s

o Federal waters (generally >3 nm’s out to 200 nm’s)

o Three management areas

o Gulf of Maine

o George’s Bank

o Southern New England

The

basi

cs

Our fish and planso 20 Species

o Seven Fishery Management Planso Northeastern Multi-species (groundfish)

o Small mesh

o Large mesh

o Atlantic Sea Scallops

o Monkfish

o Red Crab

o Atlantic Herring

o Skate Complex

o Atlantic Salmon

o Essential Fish Habitat

The

basi

cs

Other fisheries in our areao MAFMC

o Bluefish

o Surf Clam/Ocean Quahog

o Squid/Mackerel/Butterfish

o Black Sea Bass/Scup/Summer Flounder

o Dogfish*

o ASMFCo Northern Shrimp

o Lobster

o Striped Bass

o Othero Hagfish

o Pelagics

The

basi

cs

Trends

GOM groundfish stocks SSB

SSB for 6 GOM Groundfish Stocks, 1985-2002

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

(proj

ected

)

Year

SSB

(mt)

RedfishGOM Winter FlAmerican PlaiceWitch FlounderGOM CodGOM/CC Yellowtail

*2002 project ions are f rom Groundf ish PDT work for Amendment 13.

GB groundfish stocks SSBGB groundfish stocks SSBGB groundfish stocks SSB

SSB for 4 GB Groundfish Stocks, 1985-2002

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

(proj

ected

)

Year

SSB

(mt)

GB Winter Fl (Total B)GB YellowtailGB HaddockGB Cod

*2002 project ions are f rom Groundf ish PDT work for Amendment 13.*2002 total B est imate for GB winter f lounder f rom short -term project ions in NMFS GARM Report (2002).

SNE groundfish stocks SSBSNE groundfish stocks SSB

SSB of 2 Southern NE Groundfish Stocks, 1985-2002

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

(proj

ected

)

Year

SSB

(mt) SNE/MA Winter Fl

SNE/MA Yellowtail

*2002 project ions are f rom Groundf ish PDT work for Amendment 13.

Atlantic Sea Scallop biomass

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

Bio

mas

s ( T

hou s

and

MT)

Monkfish biomassMonkfish biomassMonkfish biomass

Trends in Monkfish Biomass from the Autumn Trawl Survey

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

abun

danc

e (k

g/to

w)

Northern Monkfish Biomass Index (kg/tow )

Southern Monkfish Biomass Index (kg/tow )

Atlantic Sea Herring abundance

Autumn Survey

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999

Year

Surv

ey A

bund

ance

(num

ber/to

w)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Surv

ey B

iomas

(Kg)

Number

Weight

Whiting abundance

S u rvey A b u n d a n ce o f W h itin g , 19 82 -200 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Fall

Surv

ey (M

ean

KG

/Tow

)

S o u th e rn W h itin g F a ll S u rve y

N o rth e rn W h itin g F a ll S u rve y

A g grega te B M S Y

A g gre g a te B Th res ho ld

Net result?

Things are looking up…

Pred

ictio

ns

0.00100,000,000.00200,000,000.00300,000,000.00400,000,000.00500,000,000.00600,000,000.00700,000,000.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Groundfish landings, landings, 1950 1950 -- 20002000

Predicted groundfish Predicted groundfish landings, landings,

2003 2003 -- 20262026

050000000

100000000150000000200000000250000000300000000350000000400000000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

Evolving management

• From…stock-specific rebuilding• To…integrated, multi-fishery

management• As stocks grow technical

interactions will increase• Trade-offs• PreparednessEm

ergi

ng is

sues

Open-access

• Sea scallop day-boat fishery• Inaccurate self-reporting• Difficulty ascertaining actual effort• Constraining effort will have ripple

effect

Emer

ging

issu

es

Herring

• Effort reduction in inshore areas• Localized depletion• Forage species• Tuna, whales, cod, stripers• Lobster, mackerel

Emer

ging

issu

es

EFH

• EFH designations• Data levels (1 – 4)• Purpose of designation

• EFH protection• Integrated, multi-fishery protection of

sensitive habitat• High-res benthic maps• Quantifying link btwn habitat and

productivityEmer

ging

issu

es

Dogfish

There is a strong desire amongst all NE fisherman, commercial and

recreational, to harvest dogfish at exceedingly high levels

Emer

ging

issu

es

Generic

• Food web: Geographic/seasonal information on predator-prey interactions

• Improved catch information• Improved effort informationD

ata

need

s

Generic• Non-fishing activities

• All fluid discharge sites• All watersheds• Non-fluid disposal sites• Water transportation facilities and patterns• Concentrations of non-point source discharge• Locations of other activities that affect the marine

environment

• Economic /social• Location of fishing communities• Geographic characterization of economic dependence on

fishing activities (including non-consumptive uses) • Location of major support infrastructure • Market distribution system• Areas where stakeholders reside• Population areas

Dat

a ne

eds

Specific• Habitat

• High-res bathymetry and substrate data• Level 4• Fishing effort

• Biological• Spatially explicit target, by-product and

bycatch• Low-frequency variability in physical

environment• Improved fishing effort linkage across and

within fisheries

Dat

a ne

eds

Specific

• Economic• Improved cost data• Spatially explicit fishing effort

• Intra- and inter-fishery• Linkages from ocean to market

• Social• Need for non-economic social

indicators

Dat

a ne

eds

Specific

• Cumulative effects• Focus on indicators• Develop assessment techniques• Alternative-specific impacts for

management actions• Models for management

• Integrated• Formalized

Dat

a ne

eds