05 mankeu ta 2012

8/17/2019 05 Mankeu Ta 2012

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> > > > > > Created Opportunity Trough Research

Department of Industrial Engineering, Sebelas Maret UniversityIr. Sutami 36A Surakarta, ! "6# $%#&'( 63#''%, )ttp!**+++.ti.uns.a.id

Oleh :

Dr. Wahyudi Sutopo, ST, M. Si

-okok a)asan ke/0 !-okok a)asan ke/0 !

1inanial -lanning and1inanial -lanning and

1oreasting 1inanial Statements1oreasting 1inanial Statements

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age (

Sasaran -enga2aran

Tu)uan *nstru+sional !husus T*! - :Mahasisa /e/aha/i lang+ah0lang+ah dala/ /ela+u+anpera/alan, perencanaan dan penganggaran +euangan.

'O!O! 1AHASA :

2 3ang+ah0lang+ah dala/ 4inancial planning2 Te+ni+ perencanaan anggaran dengan A5

2 5ungsi anggaran

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'era/alan 3aporan !euangan

Analy7e the historical ratios.

8. 5orecast didasar+an asu/si 9aha ratio terhadap sales-

di /asa depan constant

(. 5orecast the inco/e state/ent. 1erdasar state/ent

tera+hir dan asu/si ratio.6. 5orecast the 9alance sheet. 1erdasar state/ent tera+hir

dan asu/si ratio.

%. Raising the additional 4unds needed. Tentu+an 9entu+ dan

cara /enghi/pun dana.. 5inancing 4eed9ac+s. !onse+uensi penghi/0punan dana

di/asu++an pada 4orecast.

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5a+tor05a+tor ;ang Me/pengaruhi "<ternal 5inancingRe=uire/ent.

8. Sales groth, se/a+in tinggi target pertu/9uhan se/a+in9esar +e9utuhan dana

(. Capital intensity, se/a+in tinggi assets to sale ratiose/a+in 9esar +e9utuhan dana.

6. Spontaneous lia9ility to sales ratio, se/a+in tinggi /a+a+e9ituhan dana 9er+urang.%. 'ro4it /argin, se/a+in 9esar /ar)in /a+a dapat /ene+an

+e9utuhan dana e+sternal.. Retention ratio, se/a+in 9esar 9agian dari la9a yang

ditahan se/a+in +ecil diiden- a+an /e/per+ecil+e9utuhan dana

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age

3ang+ah0lang+ah dala/ 5inancial 5orecasting

5orecast sales

'ro)ect the assets needed to support sales

'ro)ect internally generated 4unds

'ro)ect outside 4unds needed

Decide ho to raise 4unds

See e44ects o4 plan on ratios and stoc+ price

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age ?

3aporan !euangan 'ro 5or/a

Three i/portant uses: @ 5orecast the a/ount o4 e<ternal 4inancing that ill 9e

re=uired

@ "aluate the i/pact that changes in the operating planhae on the alue o4 the 4ir/

@ Set appropriate targets 4or co/pensation plans

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Contoh :($$8 1alance Sheet Millions o4 B -

as) 4 se. 5 #% Ats. pay. 4aruals 5 '%%

Aounts re. #% 7otes payable '%%Inventories #% 8otal 9 5 #%% 8otal A 5 0%% 9/8 debt '%%

ommon stk 0%%7et fi:edassets

;etainedearnings #%%

8otal assets 5',%%% 8otal laims 5',%%%

0%%

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age

Contoh : ($$8 *nco/e State/entMillions o4 B-

Sales 5#,%%%.%%9ess! <=S $6%>( ',#%%.%% S=A osts &%%.%% EI8 5 '%%.%%Interest '6.%% E8 5 ?.%%8a:es $%>( 33.6%7et inome 5 0%.%

Dividends $3%>( 5'0.'#Add@n to ;E 530.#?

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7 Industry onditionE- '%.%%> #%.%%> -oor -rofit Margin #.0#> .%%> B;<E &.#%> '0.6%> BDS< 3.#% days 3#.%% days B

Inv. turnover ?.33: ''.%%: B1.A. turnover .%%: 0.%%: B8.A. turnover #.%%: #.0%: BDebt* assets 3%.%%> 36.%%> =ood

8IE 6.#0: C.%: -oor urrent ratio #.0%: 3.%%: B-ayout ratio 3%.%%> 3%.%%> <..

ey ;atios

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ey ;atios $ontinued(

WC *nd. Cond.

7et oper. prof. margin after ta:es 3.%%> 0.%%> -oor

$7<-A8*Sales(

<per. apital reuirement 0.%%> 30.%%> -oor

$7et oper. apital*Sales(

;eturn on invested apital 6.6&> '.%%> -oor

$7<-A8*7et oper. apital(

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A5 Additional 5unds eeded-:!ey Assu/ptions

Operating at 4ull capacity in ($$8. "ach type o4 asset gros proportionally ith sales.

'aya9les and accruals gro proportionally ith sales.

($$8 pro4it /argin (.(E- and payout 6$E- ill 9e/aintained.

Sales are e<pected to increase 9y B$$ /illion. E∆S F(E-

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Assets

Sales%

',%%%

#,%%%

',#0%

#,0%%

AF*S% G 5',%%%*5#,%%% G %.0 G 5',#0%*5#,0%%.

Assets G$AF*S%( Sales

G %.0$50%%(G 5#0%.

Assets G %.0 sales

A i 9 B( $ illi Wh

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Assets /ust increase 9y B($ /illion. Whatis the A5, 9ased on the A5 e=uationG

A17 G $AF*S%( S / $9F*S%( S / M$S'($' / d(

G $5',%%%*5#,%%%($50%%(

/ $5'%%*5#,%%%($50%%(

/ %.%#0#$5#,0%%($' / %.3(

G 5'?%.C million.

' + i ' 5 St t t d

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'roye+si 'ro 5or/a State/ents denganMetode E 'en)ualan

'ro)ect sales 9ased on 4orecasted groth ratein sales

5orecast so/e ite/s as a percent o4 the4orecasted sales @ Costs

@ Cash

@ Accounts receia9le

$More...(

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*te/s as percent o4 sales Continued...-

@ *nentories

@ et 4i<ed assets

@ Accounts paya9le and accruals Choose other ite/s

@ De9t hich deter/ines interest-

@Diidends hich deter/ines retained earnings-

@ Co//on stoc+

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age 8?

'ercent o4 Sales: *nputs

COS&Sales ?$E ?$E

SA&Sales 6E 6E

Cash&Sales 8E 8E Acct. rec.&Sales 8(E 8(E

*n.&Sales 8(E 8(E

et 5A&Sales (E (E

A' I accr.&Sales E E

#%%' #%%#Atual -ro2.

Oth * t

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Other *nputs

'ercent groth in sales (E

roth 4actor in sales g- 8.(

*nterest rate on de9t E

Ta< rate %$EDiidend payout rate 6$E

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($$( 8st 'ass *nco/e State/ent

#%%' 1ator #%%#'st -assSales 5#,%%% gG'.#0 5#,0%%

9ess! <=S -tG6%> ',0%% S=A -tG30> ?&0

EI8 5'#0Interest '6 '6 E8 5'%C8a:es $%>(

7et. inome 560Div. $3%>( 5'CAdd. to ;E 56

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($$( 8st 'ass 1alance Sheet Assets-

1oreasted assets are a perent of foreasted sales.

1ator

#%%#'st -ass

as) -tG '> 5#0Ats. re. -tG'#> 3%%

-tG'#> 3%%

8otal A 56#0

7et 1A -tG#0> 6#08otal assets 5',#0%

#%%# Sales G 5#,0%%

Inventories

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($$( 8st 'ass 1alance Sheet Clai/s-

F1rom 'st pass inome statement.

#%%' 1ator 'st -ass

A-*aruals -tG0> 5'#07otes payable '%% '%%

8otal 9 5##09/8 debt '%% '%%

ommon stk. 0%% 0%%

;et. earnings #%% "6F #6

8otal laims 5',%&'

#%%##%%# Sales G 5#,0%%

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1erapa dana ta/9ahan yang di9utuh+an A5-G

5orecasted total assets F B8,($

5orecasted total clai/s F B8,$8

5orecast A5 F B 8

7 must )ave t)e assets to make

foreasted sales. 8)e balane s)eets mustbalane. So, +e must raise 5'&Ce:ternally.

Assu/ptions a9out Ho A5 Will

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Assu/ptions a9out Ho A5 Will1e Raised

o ne co//on stoc+ ill 9e issued. Any e<ternal 4unds needed ill 9e raised as

de9t, $E notes paya9le, and $E 30T de9t.

Ho+ +ill t)e A17 be finaned

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Ho+ +ill t)e A17 be finaned

Additional notes payable G %.0 $5'&C( G 5?C.0% 5C%.

Additional 9/8 debt G %.0 $5'&C( G 5?C.0% 5?C.

ut t)is finaning +ill add %.%?$5'&C( G5'.3# to interest e:pense, +)i) +illlo+er 7I and retained earnings.

#%%# #nd -ass Inome Statement

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age (%

'st -ass 1eedbak #nd -assSales 5#,0%% 5#,0%%9ess! <=S ',0%% ',0%%

S=A ?&0 ?&0

EI8 5 '#0 5 '#0Interest '6 "' 3%E8 5 '%C 5 C0

8a:es $%>( 3?7et inome 5 60 5 0&Div. $3%>( 5 'C 5 '&Add. to ;E 5 6 5 %

#%%# #nd -ass Inome Statement

($$( ( d ' 1 l Sh t A t -

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($$( (nd 'ass 1alance Sheet Assets-

'st -ass A17 #nd -ass

as) 5#0 5#0

Ats. re. 3%% 3%%

Inventories 3%% 3%%

8otal A 56#0 56#0

7et 1A 6#0 6#0

8otal assets 5',#0% 5',#0%

8idak butu)kan Aset 8amba)an

#%%# #nd -ass alane S)eet $laims(

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#%%# #nd -ass alane S)eet $laims(

'st -ass 1eedbak #nd -assA-*aruals 5 '#0 5 '#07otes payable '%% "C% 'C%8otal 9 5 ##0 5 3'0

9/8 debt '%% "?C '?Common stk. 0%% 0%%;et. earnings #6 /6 #%8otal laims 5',%&' 5',#

;esults After t)e Seond -ass

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1oreasted assets G 5',#0% $no )ange(1oreasted laims G 5',# $)ig)er(#nd pass A17 G 5 6 $s)ort(umulative A17 G 5'&C " 56 G 5'?0.8)e 56 s)ortfall ame from t)e 56 redution

in retained earnings. Additional passes

ould be made until assets e:atly euallaims. 56$%.%?( G 5%.? interest on 3rdpass.

;esults After t)e Seond -ass

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Euation met)od assumes a onstantprofit margin.

-ro forma met)od is more fle:ible. More

important, it allo+s different items togro+ at different rates.

Euation A17 G 5'?'vs.-ro 1orma A17 G 5'?0.)y are t)ey different

;atios After #nd -ass

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E- '%.%%> '%.%%> #%.%%> -oor -rofit Margin #.0#> #.#&> .%%> -oor ;<E &.#%> &.6?> '0.6%> -oor DS< $days( 3.#% 3.#% 3#.%% -oor Inv. turnover ?.33: ?.33: ''.%%: -oor 1A turnover .%%: .%%: 0.%%: -oor 8A turnover #.%%: #.%%: #.0%: -oor D*A ratio 3%.%%> %.3> 36.%%> =ood

8IE 6.#0: .'#: C.%: -oor urrent ratio #.0%: '.CC: 3.%%: -oor -ayout ratio 3%.%%> 3%.%%> 3%.%%> <

#%%' #%%#$E( Industry ond.

Ratios a4ter (nd 'ass Continued-

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Ratios a4ter (nd 'ass Continued-

WC *nd. Cond.7et oper. prof. margin after ta:es 3.%%> 0.%%> -oor $7<-A8*Sales(<per. apital reuirement 0.%%> 30.%%> -oor $7et oper. apital*Sales(

;eturn on invested apital 6.6&> '.%%> -oor $7<-A8*7et oper. apital(

7ote! 8)ese are t)e same as in #%%' $see slide '/&(, beauset)ere )ave been no improvements in operations $i.e., all perent

of sales items )ave same perentages in #%%' and #%%#(. Also,t)ere are no differenes bet+een 'st pass and #nd pass beause)anges in finaning do not affet measures of operatingperformane.

What is the 4orecasted 4ree cash 4lo 4or

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($$(G

et operating WC B%$$ B$$ CA 0 A' I accruals-Total operating capital B$$ B8,8( et op. WC J net 5A-O'AT B?$ B "1*T<80T--3ess *n. in op. capital B((

5ree cash 4lo 0B8$

#%%' #%%#$E(

Suppose in ($$8 4i<ed assets had 9een

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age 6(

Suppose in ($$8 4i<ed assets had 9eenoperated at only E o4 capacity.

it) t)e e:isting fi:ed assets, sales

ould be 5#,66&. Sine sales areforeasted at only 5#,0%%, no ne+ fi:edassets are needed.

apaity sales GAtual sales> of apaity

G G 5#,66&.5#,%%%%.&0

Ho ould the e<cess capacity situation a44ect

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age 66

Ho ould the e<cess capacity situation a44ectthe ($$( A5G

The pro)ected increase in 4i<ed assets as B8(,

the A5 ould decrease 9y B8(. Since no ne 4i<ed assets ill 9e needed, A5 ill

4all 9y B8(, to

B8 0 B8( F B%.

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J. If sales +ent up to 53,%%%,

not 5#,0%%, +)at +ould t)e1.A. reuirement be

A. 8arget ratio G 1A*apaity salesG 50%%*5#,66& G '?.&0>.

Have enoug) 1.A. for sales up to5#,66&, but need 1.A. for anot)er

5333 of sales! 1A G %.'?&0$5333( G 56#..

Ho ould e<cess capacity a44ect the

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4orecasted ratiosG

'. Sales +ouldn@t )ange but assets +ouldbe lo+er, so turnovers +ould be better.

#. 9ess ne+ debt, )ene lo+er interest, so)ig)er profits, E-S, ;<E $+)enfinaning feedbaks onsidered(.

3. Debt ratio, 8IE +ould improve.

($$( 5orecasted Ratios: S$( F B( $$

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age 6?

($$( 5orecasted Ratios: S$( B(,$$

> of #%%' apaity'%%> &0> Industry

E- '%.%%> ''.''> #%.%%>

-rofit Margin #.#&> #.0'> .%%>

;<E &.6?> ?.> '0.6%>

DS< $days( 3.#% 3.#% 3#.%%

Inv. turnover ?.33: ?.33: ''.%%:

1.A. turnover .%%: 0.%%: 0.%%:

8.A. turnover #.%%: #.##: #.0%:

D*A ratio %.3> 33.&'> 36.%%>8IE .'#: 6.'0: C.%:

urrent ratio '.CC: #.?: 3.%%:

Ho is WC per4or/ing ith regard to its

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p g greceia9les and inentoriesG

DSO is higher than the industry aerage, and

inentory turnoer is loer than the industryaerage.

*/proe/ents here ould loer current assets,reduce capital re=uire/ents, and 4urther

i/proe pro4ita9ility and other ratios.

*/proe/ents in Wor+ing Capital

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Manage/ent

DSO days- %6.($ 6(.$$

Accts. rec.&Sales 8(.$$E .E

*nentory turnoer .66< 88.$$<

*nentory&Sales 8(.$$E .$E

efore After

*/pact o4 */proe/ents in Wor+ing Capital

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Manage/ent

5ree cash 4lo 8- 0B8$.$ B$.

RO*C O'AT&Capital- ?.E .E

RO" .E .E

efore After

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Assets

Sales%

','%%',%%%

#,%%% #,0%%

Delining A*S ;atio

5',%%%*5#,%%% G %.0K 5','%%*5#,0%% G %.. Delining ratio

s)o+s eonomies of sale. =oing from S G 5% to S G5#,%%% reuires 5',%%% of assets. 7e:t 50%% of salesreuires only 5'%% of assets.

aseStok

}

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> > > > > > Hand Out MA!"# $% & 'age %8

Assets

Sales',%%% #,%%%0%%

A*S )anges if assets are lumpy. =enerally +ill )ave e:essapaity, but eventually a small S leads to a large A.

0%%

',%%%

',0%%

Summary! Ho+ different fators affet t)eA17 f t

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A17 foreast.

"<cess capacity: @ "<istence loers A5.

1ase stoc+s o4 assets: @ 3eads to less0than0proportional asset increases.

"cono/ies o4 scale: @ Also leads to less0than0proportional asset increases.

3u/py assets: @ 3eads to large periodic A5 re=uire/ents, recurring e<cess capacity.

05 mankeu ta 2012

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