05 vulnerability adaptation
TRANSCRIPT
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Vulnerability of Iran to AdverseVulnerability of Iran to AdverseImpacts of Climate ChangeImpacts of Climate Change
National Climate Change OfficeNational Climate Change Office
Department of EnvironmentDepartment of Environment
Islamic Republic of IranIslamic Republic of Iran
by:by:
MohammadMohammad SoltaniehSoltanieh
National Project ManagerNational Project Manager
National Workshop onNational Workshop on
KYOTO PROTOCOL: Challenges and OpportunityKYOTO PROTOCOL: Challenges and Opportunity
for Sustainable Development of I.R. Iran.for Sustainable Development of I.R. Iran.
2525--26 October, 200326 October, 2003
Tehran IranTehran Iran
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PRESENTATION OVERVIEWPRESENTATION OVERVIEWNational circumstancesNational circumstances
LongLong--term projection of temperature and precipitation interm projection of temperature and precipitation inIranIran
Impact of response measures by AnnexImpact of response measures by Annex--B countries on theB countries on the
economy of Iran.economy of Iran.
Direct adverse impact of climate change on:Direct adverse impact of climate change on:
Water resourceWater resource
Agricultural products and food securityAgricultural products and food security
Coastal and low land areasCoastal and low land areas
Public healthPublic health
Adaptation on Climate ChangeAdaptation on Climate Change
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National Circumstances (I)National Circumstances (I)Trend of population growth between 1968Trend of population growth between 1968--1998(0001998(000
person)person)
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
1346 1348 1350 1352 1354 1356 1358 1360 1362 1364 1366 1368 1370 1372 1374 1376 1378
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National Circumstances (II)National Circumstances (II)
Trend of urban & rural household between 1968Trend of urban & rural household between 1968--19981998
Urbun
Rural
0
2500000
5000000
7500000
10000000
12500000
15000000
1346
1348
1350
1352
1354
1356
1358
1360
1362
1364
1366
1368
1370
1372
1374
1376
1378
1380
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National Circumstances (III)National Circumstances (III)Trend of GDP growth by sector (Trend of GDP growth by sector (bnbn.. RialsRials-- at constant 1982 prices)at constant 1982 prices)
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Oil
Water,
Electricity
and Gas
Construction
Services
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
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National Circumstances (IV)National Circumstances (IV)Share of different economic subShare of different economic sub--sectors in GDP in 1990sectors in GDP in 1990
(%)(%)
Mining
1%
Agriculture
29%
Manufacturing
15%
Oil
20%
Water,Electricity and
Gas
2%
Construction
4%
Services
29%
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National Circumstances (V)National Circumstances (V)Share of different economic subShare of different economic sub--sectors in GDP in 2000sectors in GDP in 2000
(%)(%)
Services56%
Mining
1%
Agriculture
16%
Manufacturing
13%
O il
8%
Water,
Ele ctricity and
Gas1%
Construction5%
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National Circumstances (VI)National Circumstances (VI)
Trend of per capita GDP (,000Trend of per capita GDP (,000 RialRial--constant 1982 prices)constant 1982 prices)
150
190
230
270
310
350
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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National Circumstances (VII)National Circumstances (VII)Trend of primary energy production, domestic supply, import andTrend of primary energy production, domestic supply, import and
export (MBOE)export (MBOE)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Production Import Export Domestic Supply
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National Circumstances (VIII)National Circumstances (VIII)Trend of energy intensityTrend of energy intensity
(BOE/(BOE/MnMn.. RialRial -- at constant 1982 prices)at constant 1982 prices)
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
56
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Primary Ene rgy Final Ene rgy
at ona rcumstancesa ona rcums ances
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at ona rcumstancesa ona rcums ancesShare of different sectors in the total energy demand inShare of different sectors in the total energy demand in
2000 (%)2000 (%)
P o we r P la n t s
2 4 %
Ind us t ry
1 8 %
Tra ns po rt
2 4 %
Ag r ic ul t ur e
4 %
Re si de nt ia l
2 1 %
Co mm e rc ia l
5 %
Re f in e ry
4 %
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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response Measures
Estimates of adverse effects and the requiredEstimates of adverse effects and the required
compensation are based on the results from fourcompensation are based on the results from fourscenarios:scenarios:
-- BusinessBusiness--asas--Usual (BAU),Usual (BAU),
-- Kyoto Protocol withKyoto Protocol with no flexible mechanismsno flexible mechanismsandand no tax adjustmentno tax adjustment,,
-- Kyoto Protocol withKyoto Protocol with no flexible mechanismsno flexible mechanismsandand tax adjustmentstax adjustments, and, and
-- Kyoto Protocol withKyoto Protocol with flexible mechanisms flexible mechanisms andandno tax adjustmentno tax adjustment..
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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response Measures
Baseline projections for the crude oil marketBaseline projections for the crude oil market
2010 2020 20302010 2020 2030
Baseline world oil price (USD per barrel)Baseline world oil price (USD per barrel)
19.219.2 20.51 22.1420.51 22.14World demand (World demand (mbdmbd))
81 9781 97 118118
NonNon--OPEC production (OPEC production (mbdmbd))
4444 45 4645 46
OPEC share of world oil production (%)OPEC share of world oil production (%)46 54 6146 54 61
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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response MeasuresWorld crude oil price under the three policy scenariosWorld crude oil price under the three policy scenarios withwith
participation of the USA (% change from baseline)participation of the USA (% change from baseline)
ScenariosScenarios 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 202000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20
3030
No FlexibilityNo Flexibility
--0.130.13 --0.090.09 --15.3215.32 --16.0916.09 --16.4816.48 --17.6617.66 --18.3518.35
Tax CutTax Cut
--0.02 0.060.02 0.06 --7.507.50 --9.549.54 --9.639.63 --9.979.97 --10.2910.29
Flexibility with CDMFlexibility with CDM--0.090.09 --0.160.16 --10.6110.61 --11.3311.33 --11.1311.13 --11.0811.08 --11.1611.16
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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response Measures
Impact on IranImpact on Irans Economy ins Economy in No Flexibility ScenarioNo Flexibility Scenario
No FlexibilityNo FlexibilityRevenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensatioRevenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensationn
(Billions of 1995 USD)(Billions of 1995 USD) (Billions of 1995 USD)(Billions of 1995 USD)
WithWith USUS --6.36.3 --3.13.1 7979
WithoutWithoutUSUS --1.21.2 --0.70.7 2020
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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response MeasuresImpact on IranImpact on Irans Economy ins Economy in Tax Cut ScenarioTax Cut Scenario
Tax CutTax Cut
Revenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensatioRevenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensationn
(Billions of 1995 USD)(Billions of 1995 USD) (Billions of 1995 USD)(Billions of 1995 USD)
WithWith USUS --33 1.761.76 4545
WithoutWithoutUSUS 1.61.6 0.40.4 0*0*
*Zero value indicates that no compensation is needed*Zero value indicates that no compensation is needed
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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response MeasuresImpact on IranImpact on Irans Economy ins Economy in Flexibility with CDM ScenarioFlexibility with CDM Scenario
Flexibility with CDM ScenarioFlexibility with CDM Scenario
Revenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensatioRevenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensationn
(Billions of 1995 USD)(Billions of 1995 USD) (Billions of 1995 USD)(Billions of 1995 USD)
WithWith USUS --4.54.5 2.22.2 5757
WithoutWithoutUSUS --0.90.9 --0.520.52 1717
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Impact of Response MeasuresImpact of Response Measures
Impact of Response Measures on Iranian Economy (USD billions)Impact of Response Measures on Iranian Economy (USD billions)
-1.24
1.62
-0.94
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
No Flexibil ity Tax Cut Flexibil ity with CDM
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Direct Adverse Impact of ClimateDirect Adverse Impact of Climate
ChangeChange
Direct adverse impact of climate change on:Direct adverse impact of climate change on:Water resourceWater resource
Agricultural products and food securityAgricultural products and food security
Coastal and low land areasCoastal and low land areas
Public healthPublic health
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LongLong--term projection of temperatureterm projection of temperature
and precipitation in Iranand precipitation in Iran
The selective combinations of twoThe selective combinations of twoGCMsGCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4),(HadCM2 and ECHAM4),
three IPCC emission scenarios, andthree IPCC emission scenarios, andthree different climate sensitivities,three different climate sensitivities,
represent the following temperaturerepresent the following temperatureand precipitation changes in longand precipitation changes in long--
term (2100).term (2100).
LongLong term projection of temperatureterm projection of temperature
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LongLong--term projection of temperatureterm projection of temperature
and precipitation in Iranand precipitation in Iran
Temperature :Temperature :
11C to 1.5C to 1.5C at low emission rate.C at low emission rate.
4.14.1C to 5C to 5C if the emission rate maintains at theC if the emission rate maintains at the
present level.present level.
5.95.9C to 7.7C to 7.7C at high emission rate.C at high emission rate.
Precipitation:Precipitation:
--11% to 19.1% of the baselines for low emission rate,11% to 19.1% of the baselines for low emission rate, --30.9% to 50% of the baselines for medium emission30.9% to 50% of the baselines for medium emission
rate,rate,
--58% to 80% of the baselines for high emission rate.58% to 80% of the baselines for high emission rate.
VulnerabilityVulnerability (( )W t )
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VulnerabilityVulnerability ((Water resource)Water resource)Water balance and total precipitation in theWater balance and total precipitation in the
country (billion cubic meters)country (billion cubic meters)
Evapotranspiration
(294)
Inter Flow(5)
1%
Infiltration(25)
6%
Surface Flow(92)
22%
V l bili AV l bilit A t
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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment
((Water resource)Water resource)
Sea level rise and infiltration of salt water into underground wSea level rise and infiltration of salt water into underground waterater
resourcesresourcesIncreased vaporization from the rivers due to higher temperatureIncreased vaporization from the rivers due to higher temperatures whichs which
result in drying out the riversresult in drying out the rivers
Variations in intensity and the magnitude of precipitation (In 5Variations in intensity and the magnitude of precipitation (In 53%3%
of the recorded stations flood index has increased)of the recorded stations flood index has increased)
Decreased volume and deteriorated water quality of undergroundDecreased volume and deteriorated water quality of undergroundreservoirs due to drought and increased surface vaporizationreservoirs due to drought and increased surface vaporization
which result in higher treatment costswhich result in higher treatment costs
Changes in precipitation from snow to rain and changes in meltinChanges in precipitation from snow to rain and changes in meltinggpatternspatterns
u nera yu nera y (Water resource)(Water resource)
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u nera yu nera y ( )( )Variation of runoff with respect to the variation ofVariation of runoff with respect to the variation of
temperature and rainfall in selected main basinstemperature and rainfall in selected main basins
BasinName
Temp. (T)
-40% -10% P +10% +40%
Aras
0 -52.2 -15.2 0.0 16.8 77.2
+1 -53.1 -18.1 -3.8 11.9 68.2
+6 -56.4 -28.4 -17.0 -6.1 34.1
Karkhe
0 -60.7 -18.8 0.0 21.5 102.5
+1 -62.3 -23.9 -6.7 12.9 86.9
+6 -67.9 -41.7 -30 -18.0 28.6
Precipitation (P)
Ad i MAd t ti M
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Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures
(Water resource)(Water resource)
--Water conservation in all sectorsWater conservation in all sectors
-- Integrated ground and surface water managementIntegrated ground and surface water management-- Improved operation of reservoirsImproved operation of reservoirs
-- Construction of new damsConstruction of new dams
-- Artificial ground water rechargeArtificial ground water recharge
-- Water reuse and recyclingWater reuse and recycling
-- Further research and investigation to obtainFurther research and investigation to obtainhydrologicalhydrological datadata
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Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures(Water resource)(Water resource)
-Construction of low-cost miniaturereservoirs for local irrigation
- Rehabilitation of small tanks in dry zones
- Sound watershed management
-Use of sprinkling and pressurized
irrigation systems
-Water rationing and pricing policies
V l bilit A tV l bilit A t
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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment
((Agriculture and Food Security)Agriculture and Food Security)
Irrigated
Cultivation
30%
Other
27%
Rain fed
Cultivation35%
Garden
8%
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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability AssessmentAgriculture and Food SecurityAgriculture and Food Security
Since 71% of cultivated land is devoted to grains withSince 71% of cultivated land is devoted to grains with
rain irrigation, climate change has significant adverserain irrigation, climate change has significant adverse
impact on food security.impact on food security.
Recent droughts have resulted in 52,000 billionRecent droughts have resulted in 52,000 billion RialsRialsof damage in agricultural sector and 3,600of damage in agricultural sector and 3,600 bilion Rialsbilion Rials
in water resourcesin water resources
Reduction of job positions in agricultural sectorReduction of job positions in agricultural sector
Increased immigration of farmers into the large cities.Increased immigration of farmers into the large cities.
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Adaptation MeasuresAdaptation Measures
((Agriculture and Food Security)Agriculture and Food Security)
-- Historically adaptive [for example: use of undergroundHistorically adaptive [for example: use of underground
canals, orcanals, or GhanatsGhanats]]-- Development of new crop (early maturing type) varietiesDevelopment of new crop (early maturing type) varieties
- Deep tillage
- Timeliness of tillage
- Construction of small scale reservoirs and dams
- Enclose the irrigation canals
- Reuse of drainage water
- Pressurized irrigation systems
- Leaching of salt affected soils
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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability AssessmentCostal Area & Low LandCostal Area & Low Land
Caspian sea
Wetland
Others
South Caspian shore
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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability AssessmentCostal Area & Low LandCostal Area & Low Land
Coastal wetland and mud flats(Danehkar et al., 1996)
Major shrimping ground (D.O.E., 1993)
Mangrove forest (D.O.E., 1993)
Sea grass (D.O.E., 1993)
Coral reef islands (D.O.E., 1993)
Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf(D.O.E., 1993)
Marine turtle habitats (Danehkar et al., 1996)
Waterbird habitat Danehkar et al., 1996)
Perl oyster habitat (D.O.E. 1993)
Perl oyster fishing ground (D.O.E., 1993)
Estunries (Nabavi et al., 1994)
Protected Area
Wildlife shelter
International wetland
Biosphere reserve
Ecological sensitive areas of the
Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman
(Danehkar & Porvakhshouri, 1997)
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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability AssessmentCoastal AreasCoastal Areas
The effects of sea level rise are:The effects of sea level rise are:
Changes in geomorphology of the coastalChanges in geomorphology of the coastalareasareas
Damages to oil and gas installationsDamages to oil and gas installations
Salt water intrusion into the drinking waterSalt water intrusion into the drinking water
resourcesresources
Changes in job market and shift to illegalChanges in job market and shift to illegaltraffic of goodstraffic of goods
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Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment((Power Generation)Power Generation)
Damage to coastal installations for power plant
cooling.
2% loss in efficiency caused by 1 C in ambient
temperature and extra cooling load.
Loss of hydropower output due to lack of water
supply.
Increase in electricity demand for cooling.
Adaptation Measures
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Adaptation Measures
(Power Generation)
Diversification of industrial activities and sources of
foreign revenues.
Prevention of gas flaring and venting.
Use of dry cooling systems in power plants.
Expansion of combined cycles in power plants.
Development of co-generation.
Expansion of hydropower capacity.
Vulnerability Assessment
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Vulnerability Assessment
(Forestry)
- Intensification of forest land erosion, particularly
in the arid and semi-arid areas
- Changes in the hydrological cycles
- Retrogression of forests from the sea anddestruction due to the sea level rise
- Increase of fire danger in forests
- Unsuitable environment for wildlife
Ad t ti M
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Adaptation Measures
(Forestry)
- Rehabilitation, development and treatment of forestresources
- Afforestation
- Balancing forest harvesting volume with forest
growth and forest ecological capacity
- Forest tree improvement and use of fast growing
species for reforestation
Ad t ti M
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Adaptation Measures
(Forestry)
- Changing the abandoned farm lands toforests
- Developing wood farming and agro-forestrysystem
- Implementation of national plan for GreenMovement throughout the country
V l bili
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Vulnerability assessmentVulnerability assessmentPublic HealthPublic Health
The following diseases have shown increasingThe following diseases have shown increasing
trend in this country:trend in this country:MalariaMalaria
LLeishmanieishmaniaasissisCholeraCholera
Rodents infectionRodents infection
VulnerabilityVulnerability (P bli H lth )(P bli H lth )
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VulnerabilityVulnerability (Public Health )(Public Health )
Exposure rate to Malaria(left) & LExposure rate to Malaria(left) & L
eishmanieishmani
aa
sissis
in recent yearsin recent years
45
65
85
105
125
145
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998
NumberofCaseper100,000Person
Actual Regression
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 20
NumberofCase
er100000Person
Actual Regression