herrero - vulnerability and adaptation
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Mario Herrero, Household vulnerability assessment for rural livelihoods in (presentation from Adaptation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)TRANSCRIPT
Assessing household level vulnerability to climate change
M. Herrero, P. K. Thornton, P. Ericksen, M. Rufino, A. Notenbaert
CCAFS Science Meeting Cancun, Mexico | 1-2 December 2010
– Background
– Some definitions
– Methodology
– Some results
– Future research
Outline
Systems are changing…
Population / Urbanization / Incomes / Diets
Increased competition for natural resources
Climate change – warmer and more variable
Trade / exchange of knowledge and products
W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system
The target is moving! An example of the changing nature of production systems
..and then climate change….
0º
20º
-20º
0º 20º 40º
An example of climate-induced livelihood transitions
Areas where cropping of an indicator cereal may become unviable between now and 2050 and where farmers may have to rely more on livestock as a livelihood strategy
Jones & Thornton (2008)
National Production
Mixed rainfed
temperate
Mixed rainfed humid
Mixed rainfed
arid
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Burundi 9.1 9.1 14.4 18.1 -1.8 -8.8 - - Kenya 15.0 17.8 33.3 46.5 -4.6 -9.8 -1.1 -8.4 Rwanda 10.8 14.9 13.4 18.8 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.7 Tanzania -3.1 -8.1 7.5 8.7 -1.6 -6.4 -5.1 -11.1 Uganda -2.2 -8.6 4.9 3.1 -4.6 -12.9 -1.1 -6.3
A game of winners and losers…
Simulated percentage maize production changes to 2030 and 2050, by country and system
Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenario
Thornton et al. (2010)
Winners Losers
There are always trade-offs
Rainy Dry Dry
Groundnuts
Yams
Sorghum
Grazing Critical Crop residue
Cut & Carry
Prot. & Ene. deficit
Food security Energy deficit
Family’s nutrition
Feeding calendar
Cropping calendar
Weather calendar
Monthly calendar of different activities of the system
Cash demands Very high
Low High High Low Low High High
Wa, Upper West, Ghana
Gonzalez-Estrada et al. 2006
...from vulnerability mapping to assessing household level impacts...
directly linked to adaptation options
Adaptation to climate change: definitions
IPCC (2007)
Initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects
IPCC (2001)
‘adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts’
This implies implementation of:
“processes, practices, or structures to moderate or offset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated with changes in climate”
Adaptation options will depend largely on the how we shape the world
• Several options exist though largely dependent on our vision of world development and how it plays out in different regions
• Lots of scenarios and uncertainty!
• Different paradigms of agricultural development (industrial vs pro-poor smallholders, large vs family farms)
• Globalisation and trade patterns • Consumption patterns • Carbon constraints • Roles and incentives for technology adoption • Growth in other sectors • Power relationships
Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa
Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences
ILRI with the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) and The Energy Resources Institute (TERI)
Thornton et al 2006
Changes in growing
conditions to 2050
Climate Change Risk / Impact
Different scenarios of
the future
Biophysical vulnerability
Social vulnerability
14 indicators
Data reduction analysis 4 factors, combined
into one “overall” vulnerability indicator
Hot-spots
Hot-spots
Hot-spots of climate risk AND vulnerability
Vulnerability
Used the length of growing period as a proxy for agricultural impacts
• Calculate the water balance via available soil water, runoff, water deficiency (assume a soil water holding capacity of 100 mm)
• Count the number of days per year when the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration ratio (Ea/Et) > 0.5 and Tav > 9 °C
Assessing climate change
Where are the impacts?
Assess the impact of climate change on agro-ecological characteristics by looking at changes in the length of growing period (LGP)
Data adapted from Thornton et al., 2006
Days
Where are the impacts?
% change in LGP Data adapted from Thornton et al., 2006
What systems are mostly affected?
Livestock based systems
Mixed irrigated systems
Mixed rainfed systems
Data adapted from Thornton et al., 2006
14 vulnerability indicators used in ILRI study Data at different scales: country, province, 18 km2
Natural capital
• Crop suitability (FAO, GLC2000) • Soil degradation (GLASOD) • Water availability (FAO Water Atlas)
Physical capital
• Market access (ILRI)
Social capital
• Human poverty index (HDR) • Governance (World Bank)
Human capital
• Stunting (FAO, CIESIN) • Infant mortality (CIESIN) • Wasting (CIESIN) • Public health expenditure (HDR) • Malaria risk (MARA) • HIV/AIDS prevalence (HDR)
Financial capital
• Agriculture as % of GDP (World Bank) • Imports vs Exports (World Bank)
Areas within the LGA (arid-semiarid livestock) and MRA (arid-semiarid mixed) systems projected to undergo >20% reduction in LGP to 2050: HadCM3 (Thornton et al 2006)
A1 B1
Quartiles of the overall vulnerability indicator Mapped at systems level within each country. Quartile 1, “less vulnerable”; quartile 4, “more vulnerable”
Thornton et al 2006
Highest vulnerability quartile (4)
Second-highest vulnerability quartile (3)
Possibly severe LGP loss (>20% to 2050)
• Some MRA systems in Sahel • Mixed rainfed and highland perennial systems in Great Lakes region of E Africa • LGA systems in parts of E Africa
• MRA, LGA systems in large parts of Sahel • Livestock systems and some mixed systems in parts of E and southern Africa • Coastal systems in E and parts of southern Africa
Possibly moderate LGP loss (5-20% to 2050)
• Mixed systems in parts of E Africa
• Coastal systems of parts of W Africa • Tree crop systems in parts of W Africa • Forest-based systems in central Africa • Root-based and root-mixed systems in south central Africa
Synthesis of hot-spots MRA, mixed rainfed arid-semairid systems LGA, rangeland arid-semiarid systems
Use such information as one input to evaluating trade-offs (e.g., numbers of poor versus density of poor) in relation to specific development criteria
CCAFS revisiting this work from a food security perspective (P. Ericksen leading)
• Broaden the scope, and do from a food security perspective
• Use ensemble climate scenarios & variability
• Look at changes in vulnerability and food security in the future
• Don’t use a composite vulnerability indicator but look at the different dimensions
• Using real impacts on crop and livestock production
Analysis of Food Security Outcomes COMPONENTS & Elements
Food Security, i.e. stability over 4me for:
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
• Affordability • Alloca.on • Preference
• Nutri.onal Value • Social Value • Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY
• Produc.on • Distribu.on • Exchange
Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES Under different scenarios
Production
Distribution
Inter-Regional Exchange
Intra-Caribbean Exchange
Affordability
Allocation
Preference
Food Safety
Incr
ease
D
ecre
ase
Nutritional Value
Social Value
Global Caribbean
Caribbean Order From Strength
Caribbean TechnoGarden
Caribbean Adapting Mosaic
per scenario
Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.
++
+ 0
_
_ _
Hazard exposure
Hot-spots of global change to 2030, 2050
Hot-spots of change to 2030, 2050
Hot-spots of changes in hazard exposure & food
system vulnerability to 2030, 2050
Vulnerability
Addressing complexity
Herrero et al, Science (2010)
Data collection + household modeling protocol :
Climate
Family structure
Land management
Livestock management
Labour allocation
Family’s dietary pattern
Farm’s sales and expenses
Herrero et al 2007
Plot Crop
Homestead Enset, coffee, kale, sweet potato, maize
Plot1 Maize
Plot 2 Sweet potato, wheat
Plot 3 Maize
Plot 4 Sweet potato
Plot 5 Barley
Plot 6 Maize
Plot 7 Unimproved pasture
What’s the likely impact of food/feed crop interventions?
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia
Profit: Birr 2,381 Livestock: 1 cow, 1 ox
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia
Critical Adequate
Current management
Food security
Cow feeding
Labour/capital
Cash
Soil fertility
Food security
Cow feeding
Labour/capital
Cash
Soil fertility
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia
Critical Adequate
Intervention 1 Food crop
Application of fertilizer to maize plots.
Food security
Cow feeding
Labour/capital
Cash
Soil fertility
Site: Sodo, Ethiopia
Critical Adequate
Intervention 2 Feed crop
Replace native grassland with improved pasture.
Research opportunities
• choice of indicators
• need large scale synthesis study looking at household-level impacts of adaptation
• incorporating risk and uncertainty
• scenarios and how to represent change in vulnerability status in the future
• Equity issues and others that define the winners and losers (gender, location, power structures)
• What are the options?
• Upscaling issues (linking scales)