1

環境制約からみた21 世紀の科学文明と生活

国際連合大学・東京大学

安井　至

http://www.yasuienv.net　で本資料を配布中です。

2

YlabCREST Contents

Introduction What is the Keyword? = Sustainability Definition of Sustainability How to Measure Development?

Transitions in Environment, Japanese Case Analysis for Transitions in Environment

Environmental Kuznets Curve CO2 Emission Energy Use

EcoPremium　 A New Life Style Conclusions

3

YlabCRESTDefinition of

“Sustainability”

Two Kinds of Definitions

UN Brundtland Type

Corporate Social Responsibility Type

4

YlabCREST

"Sustainable Development is Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It is not a fixed state of harmony, but rather a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development, and institutional change are made consistent with future as well as present needs." (Brundtland Report 1987)

Brundtland Type Definition

5

YlabCREST

Fairness&　 Justice

Green & Sustainability; Different Views

Human Equity

EconomicAspects

SocialAspects Resource

Consumption

EcologicalImpact

ResourceFactor

Eco-SystemFactor

Limitationof Earth

Human HealthOvercome

Poverty

Case for Japan

6

YlabCREST Sustainability

Triple Bottom Line

Environmental Aspects

SocialAspects

EconomicAspects

Start Point

7

YlabCREST Transition of Society

from Non Sustainable to Sustainable

Environmental Aspects

SocialAspects

EconomicAspects

Environmental Aspects

SocialAspects

EconomicAspects

8

YlabCREST

International Framework for

Sustainable Development

Goals and Targets

9

YlabCREST Millennium Development

Goals

The Millennium Development Goals are an ambitious agenda for reducing poverty and improving lives that world leaders agreed on at the Millennium Summit in September 2000. For each goal one or more targets have been set, most for 2015, using 1990 as a benchmark:

10

YlabCREST 8 Goals in MDG

1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 2. Achieve universal primary education 3. Promote gender equality and empower wom

en 4. Reduce child mortality 5. Improve maternal health 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other disea

ses 7. Ensure environmental sustainability 8. Develop a global partnership for developme

nt

11

YlabCREST 18 Targets and 48 Indicators

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable

development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources 25. Proportion of land area covered by forest 26. Land area protected to maintain biological

diversity 27. GDP per unit of energy use (as proxy for energy

efficiency) 28. Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita)

[Plus two figures of global atmospheric pollution: ozone depletion and the accumulation of global warming gases]

12

YlabCREST How to Measure

Development? Economical Development?

GDP and Others Economy Related Other Indicators?

Such as Energy Use per Capita Human Development?

By UNDP

13

YlabCREST Human Development

"The basic purpose of development is to enlarge people's choices. In principle, these choices can be infinite and can change over time. People often value achievements that do not show up at all, or not immediately, in income or growth figures: greater access to knowledge, better nutrition and health services, more secure livelihoods, security against crime and physical violence, satisfying leisure hours, political and cultural freedoms and sense of participation in community activities. The objective of development is to create an enabling environment for people to enjoy long, healthy and creative lives."

Mahbub ul Haq

14

YlabCREST How Can We Measure HD?

What is the human development index (HDI) developed by UNDP?The HDI – human development index – is a summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: longevity, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. Longevity is measured by life expectancy at birth;

knowledge is measured by a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio; and standard of living by GDP per capita (PPP US$).

15

YlabCREST

WSSD Plan of Implementation

Poverty eradication Changing unsustainable patterns of

consumption and production Protection and managing the natural

resource base of economic and social development

Sustainable development in a globalizing world

Health and sustainable development

in Johannesburg 2002

16

YlabCREST

Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption and production

All countries should promote sustainable consumption and production patterns, with the developed countries taking the lead……

Encourage and promote the development of a 10 -year framework of programmes…….

Develop production and consumption policies to improve the products and services provided, while reducing environmental and health impacts, using, where appropriate, science-based approaches, such as life-cycle analysis…..

17

YlabCREST

Enhance corporate environmental and social responsibility and accountability…….

Prevent and minimize waste and maximize reuse, recycling and use of environmentally friendly alternative materials…….

Promote an integrated approach to policy -making at the national, regional and local levels for transport services and systems…Eco-friendly Cars…

Sound management of chemicals throughout their life cycle and of hazardous wastes……..

Changing unsustainable patterns of consumption and production

18

YlabCREST

Transitions in Environment Japanese Case

19

YlabCREST Minamata　 Disease

Minamata disease is the name given to mercury toxicosis (poisoning) that developed in people who ate contaminated seafood taken from Minamata Bay and adjacent coastal waters. Methyl mercury was dumped into the sea as an unwanted by-product of acetaldehyde processing at the Chisso Company Limited industrial plant in Minamata from 1931 to 1966.

As of 31 March 1993, the official government tally of confirmed victims was 2,255 (both living and dead) with 2,376 others who are still seeking to be classified as victims. The number of persons refused certification has climbed to 12,503. The actual total of victims is undoubtedly larger than the official figures because an unknown number of people died from the disease without certification or chose not to apply for certification.

20

YlabCREST

Minamata on the Mend The Ministry of Environment finally declared

Minamata Bay safe in 1997, after a ¥48.5 billion ($394 million)-effort to dredge or contain in landfill the mercury accumulated at the bottom of the bay (1983).

Now, drawing on its experience of suffering and recovery, Minamata is spreading a message to developing countries, particularly in Asia, not to repeat Japan's mistake.

21

YlabCREST

1970 　　　　　　　　　　　 2000 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 2050

Dioxin & POPs

Air Pollution

Water & Sea Pollution

Resource & Energy Consumption

Soil & Sediment Pollution

Depletion of Ozone Layer

Environmental Problems and Time Constants in Japan

Global Warming

EDC Problem

22

YlabCREST Air Pollution NOx

1970 1980 1990 2000

con

cen

tratio

n

23

YlabCREST

% of Points for Measurement where concentration exceeded the environmental standard limitsPb

CN

Cd

As PCB

Cr

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

24

YlabCREST

Years of Life Lost by Daily Risks by WHO

25

YlabCREST

Infant Mortality Rates and Foetal Death Rates in Japan/Tokyo from 1899 to 1998

200/1000

3/1000

26

YlabCREST

Risk Ranking for Chemicals in Loss of Life (days)

単位：日

Smoking allSmoking Lung Cancer

Passive SmokingDiesel SPM

Passive Smoking LCRadon

FormaldehydeDioxinCadmium

ArsenicToluene

27

YlabCREST

Emission of Dioxin and Related Chemicals to Environmet

28

YlabCREST Change of Dioxin Conc. in Mother

Milk

29

YlabCREST

Transition of Life Expectancy at Birth in Japan

Men

Women

30

YlabCREST

GDP vs. Life Expectancy

31

YlabCREST GDP vs. Life Expectancy

32

YlabCREST

33

YlabCREST Analysis for Transitions in

Environment

Environmental Kuznets Curves SOx is a typical environmental

pollutant to fit the Kuznets Curve.

34

YlabCREST

GDP per capita 　ｖｓ．　 SOx Concentration

Environmental Kuznets Curve after Prof. SIMON KUZNETS

35

YlabCREST

Then how about other emissions and use of resources ?

(1) Energy Use (2) CO2

(3) Waste and Material Use

36

YlabCREST

37

YlabCREST

Costa Rica

38

YlabCREST

Costa Rica

39

YlabCREST

Costa Rica

JapaneseTarget

40

YlabCREST A Scenario for Oil

Production

41

YlabCREST Newly Found and

Production of Oil

42

YlabCREST

Long Term Trend of Oil Consumption

43

YlabCREST

Then how about other emissions and use of resources ?

(1) Energy Use (2) CO2

(3) Waste and Material Use

44

YlabCREST

B1

Scenario by IPCC. B1 is the Target?

Emission

45

YlabCREST

Incre

ase

in

Tem

pera

ture

B1

46

YlabCREST

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Total CO2 Emission(Global)

JAPAN

Now

47

YlabCREST

En

viro

nm

en

t Lo

ad

Economical Scale, such as GDP

A Trend Model for Environment Load in Japan

Pollution, General

Now

TargetEnergy Consumption, CO2 Emission

ValueValue

1970

Japanese Model

48

YlabCREST

　　　各種のプレミアム Premium ブランドプレミアム Brand Premium

同じような製品でもメーカーが違うため価値が高い

超小型プレミアム Ultra Small-size Premium 超小型にすることで価値が高い

使いここちプレミアム Comfortable Premium 使い心地に気を配って価値が高い

長寿命プレミアム Long-Life Premium 寿命が長く、修理が利くために価値が高い

手作りプレミアム Hand-made Premium 手作りのために価値が高い

エコプレミアム Eco-Premium 製品の環境負荷が低いために価値が高い

49

YlabCREST

エコプレミアム Eco-Premium 資源・エネルギー生産性の高い商品 Resource Productivity, Energy Productivity 環境汚染は良好にマネージメント 複数プレミアムの組み合わせが必要か 例えば、

ブランドプレミアム＝手工業的プレミアム 長寿命プレミアム＝寿命の長さで高い価値を エコプレミアム＝環境負荷の低さで価値を

50

YlabCREST

＜エネルギー生産性の向上＞

エネルギー生産性４倍＝技術的効率（２倍） × 需要変化（２倍）

　　　　　　　　　　　　　＜資源生産性の向上＞

資源生産性　８倍＝　２倍　　　 × 　　　２倍　　 × 　　　２倍　　　　　　　　　　　　　機能長寿命化　　需要変化　　　循環利用　

結局のところは、５０年間で

Energy Productivity x4 = Technology (x2) x Life Style(x2)

In less than 50 years, we must fulfill the goal,

Resource Productivity x8 = Long Life (x2) x Life Style(x2) x Recycle Tech.etc., (x2)

51

YlabCREST An Example

= New Prius

Hybrid Motor Vehicle by TOYOTAEngine

Ni-H BatteryGenerator

Inverter

Motor Transmission for Hybrid

Power Splitter

52

YlabCREST

Comparison of CO2 Emission New Prius and Equivalent

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Gasoline

New PriusMaterialsAssembleGasolineMaintenanceWaste

tons

Assumptions: 100,000km Driven in TokyoFuel Consumption: 18km/L for Prius, 8km/L for Others

53

YlabCREST Energy Efficiency of New

Prius

GasolinePrius 1

Prius 1MC

New Prius

FCHV NowFCHV F

Fuel E Car EOverall EE in %

54

YlabCREST

水素は普及しない？ Hydrogen Energy : Doubtful

理由 水素は一次エネルギーではない。 Not Primary Energy 二次エネルギーは運搬・貯蔵などの手段。 Media to Stor

e. 手段の性能としては、液体燃料に負ける。 Liquid Fuel.

液体水素でも、ガソリンより水素分子数が少ない 液体燃料のインフラ構築に比較すると、気体のインフラ

の構築はコストが非常にかかる。 Infra Structure for H2. もしも水素に技術的優位性があれば、コストを除外して

も進める可能性はあるが。 No Technological Merit. 環境面の優位性も無さそう。 No Environmental Merit.

結論：水素はアイスランドのみ！

55

YlabCREST エコキュートの環境効率

Eco-Kyuto: Hot Water Apparatus二酸化炭素冷媒を使ったヒートポンプ型給湯機Heat Pump Type

56

YlabCREST

具体例　洗濯乾燥機

Washer Dryer ＣＯ２ Emission 　ｋｇ／ｋｇ Cloths

洗濯乾燥機の二酸化炭素排出量

Water:Wash

Water:Dry

Electricity:WashElectricity:Dry

57

YlabCREST すべての電気製品には情報を

Environmental Information by House Hold Appriances

洗濯量 は２．５ｋｇでした。本日の二酸化炭素 排出量 は

　　洗濯時に２２ｇ＝水で１２ｇ＋電気で１０ｇ　乾燥時に５００ｇ＝水で３０ｇ＋電気で４７０ｇ

Cloth Weight

Today’s CO2 EmissionWash:22g = Water:12g + Electricity: 10gDry: 500g = Water:30g + Electricity: 470g

58

YlabCREST

消費者消費者

エコプレミアム情報の交換Exchange of Information by Eco-Premium Products

持続可能性

商品商品

消費者

情報

満足

商品 消費者

ConsumersProducts

Information

Satisfaction

Su

stain

abilit

y

59

YlabCREST

着陸地点を決めた議論を！We have to make discussion with future perspectives

In the year of 2050

60

YlabCREST企業と市民の責任の分担Sharing Responsibility by Citizens and Corporations to Change Society 企業 (Corporation)：　十分な環境情報を持つ 。　 　　　 Enough Environmental Information 　　　　市民社会をリードする役割。

Responsibility to Lead the Society 　　　　余りにも先進的だとリスクあり。 Too Advanced, then some Risks 市民 (Citizen)：環境情報はメディア経由で不十分。 Not Enough and Distorted Information 　　　　　そのために迷走する。 Sometimes take Waving Courses

61

YlabCREST企業の環境戦略　半歩前Best Strategy for Corporation = Walk half step ahead

FINAL GOAL

一般社会の動きCitizens Society 優れた環境対応企業

Advanced Corporations in Environmental Management

環境対応の遅れた企業Backward Corporations in Environmental Management

62

YlabCREST 結論 Conclusions

２１世紀は、地球の限界と人間活動があきらかな交点をもち始める世紀である。

Competition between Limitation of the Earth and Scale of Human Activities

いかなる人も、この事実から逃れられない。

Nobody can escape from this condition. 地球に限界があることを認め、それに対処すること

は、知識人にとって必須の条件である。 Accept this condition and consider the next action is a d

uty for intellectual persons. それは未来を読むことは、人のみに許されたことだ

から。 Only human beings can have future perspectives.