1 24 th nov, 2013 guar scenario mapping the market thought of guar complex by nagaraj meda managing...

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24th Nov, 2013

Guar Scenario

Mapping The Market Thought of

Guar complexby

Nagaraj MedaManaging Director

TransGraph Consulting Pvt.Ltd

11th Oct’2014

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cluster_bean-guar-Cyamopsis_psoralioides-Cyamopsis_tetragonolobus-TAMIL_NADU73.jpg

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3

Guar- Price Outlook


Guar Seed Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Review

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Guar yearly average prices

5

Source:TGCrop year: Oct to Sep


Competitive Crop Scenario

6

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Guar Bajra Soybean Maize

Farmer realization in Rajasthan ( per ha)

Source:TG & CACP

Last two years in western Rajasthan there has been increase in soybean and Maize cultivation also along with Guar.


Rainfall in Gaur region during the guar sowing

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Normal Actual Normal Actual Normal ActualRajasthan Gujarat Haryana

20

70

120

170

220

270

320

370

420

470

520

163.5

59.7

370.35

271.4

211.7

98.1

2013 2014

Rainfall during the gaur sowing(Jun-Jul in mm)

In Rajasthan sowing period 72% of rainfall deficit have seen, which have kept lower sown guar sown area this year. Meanwhile in Gujarat 27% deficit was observed and Haryana near 54% deficit rainfall observed.

Source: IMD


Guar sown acreage in guar region

8

41

4.8 3.91.35

35.42

2.7 2.50.4

05

1015202530354045

Rajasthan Gujarat Haryana Others

2013-14 2014-15E

Guar sown acreage in guar region (In Lakh ha)

-14%

Source:TG & agri departments

Guar sown acreage declined significantly across guar region due to scanty rainfall during the sowing period. In Rajasthan acreage declined near 14%, whereas, in Gujarat and Haryana declined above 35% acreage from last year sown area.


India Guar sown area

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Source:TG & Rajasthan agri department


Indian Guar production

10

Source:TGyear: Oct to Sep


Domestic Guar gum demand

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Indian guar gum consumption may decline by 13% for 2014-15 year due to anticipation of rise in guar gum prices by lower production, so Textile and Paper & Paper board industry may turn to other substitute products.

Source:TGYear: Oct to Sep


Guar gum exports sector wise

12

292

12082

26

298

100

6022

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Shale Food Textile& Paper Others

2013-14 2014-15F

Overseas Guar gum demand sector wise(In 000 tons)

Anticipation of rise in guar prices may impact guar gum consumption in Food, Textile and other industries due to they have alternative (substitute) source at cheaper prices.

Source:TGYear: Oct to Sep


Expected Guar gum consumption sector wise in 2014-15

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• In total Indian guar gum exports 62% of gum is consumed by US shale industry, remaining is food , paper and textile industry.

• In domestic markets major players are Food, Paper and Textile industries.

Source:TG

62%21%

13%

4%Food industry

Paper & Textile

Pharmaceutical

Cosmetic

Overseas Guar gum consumption Sector wise

60%26%

8%

2%4% Food industry

Paper & Textile

Pharmaceutical

Cosmetic

Others

Overseas Guar gum consumption Sector wise


Indian Guar gum exports

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Source:TG & DGFTYear : Oct to Sep


Indian Guar Balance sheet

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Indian Guar seed & Gum Balance sheet( in Lakh tons)

Particulars 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14E 2014-15P

Beginning stocks seeds 10.69 5.88 0.99 8.22 7.08Production seeds 12.06 16 24.16 22.06 18.04Imports seeds & Gum 0 0 0 0 0Total Supply Seeds 22.75 21.88 25.15 30.28 25.12

Domestic Consumption and farmer retention in terms of Seeds (A) 4.82 4.66 5.62 7.2 7

Domestic Consumption in terms of Gum 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.71 1.4

Exports in terms of seed (B) 12.05 16.23 11.31 16 14.4Exports in terms of Gum 3.62 4.87 3.39 5.2 4.8Total demand Seed (A+B) 16.87 20.89 16.93 23.2 21.4Ending stocks Seed 5.88 0.99 8.22 7.08 3.6Stock to use ratio Seed 35% 5% 49% 31% 17%

Source :TGCrop year: Oct to Sep

Technical Price Outlook

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Guar Seed Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Preferred-Long Term

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Guar Seed prices, after completion of Cycle wave 2 at INR4080 initiated Primary wave 1 in Cycle wave 3. With in the same, Intermediate wave-1 is completed at INR 6266 and initiated downside correction as intermediate Wave 2 which may culminate near INR 4900 ahead of turning higher towards INR 8500 as Intermediate wave 3 in the next 7-9 months .

© TransGraph Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 18

Guar Gum Jodhpur Spot Market, INR/Qtl Elliot Wave count-Preferred-Long Term

Guar Gum prices, after completion of Cycle wave 2 at INR 10900 initiated Primary wave 1 in Cycle wave 3. With in the same, Intermediate wave-1 is completed at INR 17440 and initiated downside correction as intermediate Wave 2 which may culminate near INR 13500-13000 ahead of turning higher towards INR 28000 as Intermediate wave 3 in the next 7-9 months .


Guar Seed and Guar Gum Spot Market Price Outlook

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TransGRAPH Price Outlook

Market Jodhpur Guar Seed Spot Market Jodhpur Guar Gum Spot Market Week Closing INR 5561/qtl. on October 08 , 2014 INR 15641/qtl. on October 08 , 2014

ELLIOTT WAVE Preferred-Long Term Preferred-Long Term

Cycle 3-Up 3-Up

Primary 1-Up 1-Up

Intermediate 2- Down (verge of ending) 2- Down (verge of ending)

Directional Component

1-4 Weeks: Sideways to weak 1-4 Weeks: Sideways to weak

1-3 Months: Slightly positive 1-3 Months: Slightly positive

7-9 Months: Positive 7-9 Months: Positive

Price Range (for 1-3 Months) INR 4900-6700 INR 13000-16000

Price Range (for 7-9 Months) INR 4900-8500 INR 13000-28000

Price Outlook Summery:1)Guar Seed Prices are likely to remain sideways to slightly negative to post a low around INR 4900 initially to set stage for a medium term recovery towards INR 8500-8800 in the coming 6-7 months. 2)Guar Gum Prices are likely to remain sideways to negative to post a low around INR 13000 initially to set stage for a medium term recovery towards INR 27500-28000 in the coming 6-7 months.

Thanking you for your attention.

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1 24 th nov, 2013 guar scenario mapping the market thought of guar complex by nagaraj meda managing...

Documents

tg slide

slide rainfall

slide guar sown acreage

slide indian guar production

imd slide

guar price outlook slide

guar prices

slide indian guar gum