(11) 1-362006 7

Raymond Kurzweil

hdguo_tw@mail2000.com.tw

,

1 1947 1956 Unimation Inc. 1959 UNIMATE 1962 1962 AMF

VERSTRAN 1970 1973 1980 MIT 1984 Unimation Inc. 1988 HelpMate

1 http://consumer.chinatimes.com/EVENT/2006robot/robot-3-5-1.htm

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1990 1992 1993 MIT 1996 HONDA P2 1997 RoboCup 1997 NASA 1997 1999 SONY AIBO 2000 HONDA ASIMO 2001 Robot Challenge 2003 HRP-2 2003 SONY QRIO(SDR-4XII) 2003 iRobot Roomba 20

2003 2004 Wakemaru

robotrobota1920 Karl Capek21920Rossums Universal Robots R.U.R.3Robot

, 20 2 http://www.xminfo.net.cn:8080/xmkp/kpzs/hyyhjkyzs3_1_18.htm 3

Raymond Kurzweil 3

,

4

()

5 1962

30 4 1990 1

234

5 http://www.student.gov.cn/robot/robot%20world/wl/csz.htm

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60 70 6

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6 ,

Raymond Kurzweil 5

2)

3)

4)

1966 Unimation AMF 1967

Hall Automation RAMP70

Lighthall

70

.

6 (11)

70

1984

1985

50 50 1968 1971 1970 1975

1975 30 120 20

Raymond Kurzweil 7

60 11

1967 Unimation 1968

40% 13

80

60 70 80 1980

8 (11)

7

1) 2) 3) 4)

1) PID 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8)

1) PID 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8)

7 http://famousky.com/default.asp?cateID=48

Raymond Kurzweil 9

1) DSP 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11)

1) 2) Agent 3) 4) 5) 6) 7)

1) 2) 3) 4)

1) 2) 3) 4) 5)

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10 (11)

2) 3) 4) 5)

1) 2) 3)

1) 2)

Isaac Asimov8

8 http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%89%BE%E8%90%A8%E5%85%8B%C2%B7%

E9%98%BF%E8%A5%BF%E8%8E%AB%E5%A4%AB Isaac Asimov1920 1 2 1992 4 6

1941 Runaround

Raymond Kurzweil 11

9

150

10

9 http://database.cpst.net.cn/popul/views/artic/60401093813.html 10 http://www.cpus.gov.cn/kjsh/jqrsh/jqrwg.htm

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,

1

11

28

11

http://www.mnd.gov.tw/publication/subject.aspx?TopicID=476

Raymond Kurzweil 13

12 1

21

2 13

21

Ian NeildIan Person2005 BT Technology Timeline14

12 http://tech.163.com/06/0324/11/2CVOKT6A00091S79.html 13 1950 Alan TuringTuring Test

inquisitorterminal

1991 Hugh Loebner Turing Test Loebner Turing Test Turing Test

14 http://www.btinternet.com/~ian.pearson/ http://iarthome.com/read/htm/tid-3034.html

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2020 2040

20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012

20082012 20112015 20112015 20132017

20162020 20162020 20162020 20162020 2020 2020 2020 2230 2030 2040 2040 2050

20082012

Raymond Kurzweil 15

20082012 20082012 20112015 20112015 20112015 20112015 20132017 90% 20122017 20132017 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2030 2030

2040

2040 20082012 20082012 20082011 20112015 20112015 RFID 20132017

20062020 20162020 20162020 2030 95%

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20082012 60% 20082012 20082012 20112015 20132017 20132017 20162020 2020

2030

20062010 20082012 20082012 20082012 1500 20082012 50% 20082012 20112015 20112015 20112015 20132017 20132017 2020 50% 2030 2030 2030 2040 50% 2040

Raymond Kurzweil 17

20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012 20112015 20112015 20112015

20112015 20112015 2020 2020

2020 2020 2020 2030 2030

20112015 20112015 20112015 20132017 20162020 2020 2020 2030 2040

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20082012 20082012 20082012 20112015 20112015 20132017 20132017 20162020 2020 2020 2020 2030 2030

2040

20112015 20162020 20162020 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2040 15

15 http://consumer.chinatimes.com/EVENT/2006robot/robot-3-1-1.htm

Raymond Kurzweil 19

16 1 (Actuator)

2 (Animatronic)

3 (Android)

(humanoid) 4 (Cybernetics) (Norbert

Wiener) 5 (Cyborg)

6 (Mechatronics)

7 (Pick-and-Place robot)

8 (Robot) ()

9 (Sensor)

10(Servo)

16 http://consumer.chinatimes.com/EVENT/2006robot/robot-3-2-1.htm

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1http://robotics.bu.edu/17 2http://www.gjwtech.com/ 3http://www.roboticfan.com/index.asp 4http://www.kepu.com.cn/gb/technology/robot/ 5http://robotics.caltech.edu/ 6http://mi.eng.cam.ac.uk/milab.html 7http://hrl.harvard.edu/18 8http://www.playrobot.com/linkweb.htm 9http://www.liurenping.com/keyan/index.html 19 10http://ai.stanford.edu/20 11http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/ Hans Moravec21

(Raymond Kurzweil)

17 (Communicating mobile robotics)

(Contact sensing)(Structural dynamics)(Control of Fluids)(Friction modeling)(Networked Control Systems)(Tactile display)(Control of Mechanical Systems)

18 Analog Computation Choreography of Dynamical SystemsControl of Quantum SystemsPattern GenerationRobotic ManipulationSystem Identification

19 ROBOCUPROBOCUP SUNNY618

20 (bio-informatics)

(cognition) (computational geometry) (computer vision)(decision theory)(distributed systems)(game theory)(image processing, information retrieval)(knowledge systems)(logic)(machine learning)(multi-agent systems)(natural language)(neural networks)(planning)(probabilistic inference)(sensor networks)

21 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravec

Raymond Kurzweil 21

http://www.kurzweiltech.com/raycv.html ( Kurzweil )

1948 2 12 Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.

PMB 193 733 Turnpike Street North Andover, MA 01845 E-mail: raymond@kurzweiltech.com Web: www.KurzweilTech.com & www.KurzweilAI.net 1970 MIT B.S., Computer Science and

Literature, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Honorary Degrees 1982--2005 12

2003 Ray & Terrys Longevity Products Inc.

(nutraceutical) 2001 www.KurzweilAI.net

2000 Kurzweil Kurzweil Cyber Art Technologies,

Inc., KCATAARON()Ray Kurzweil's (Cybernetic Poet)

1999 FAT KAT, Inc.The KurzweilAI.net

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1997 Medical Learning Company, Inc., MLC

1996 Kurzweil Kurzweil Educational Systems, Inc., KESIKurzweil 3000 Kurzweil 1000

1995 Kurzweil Kurzweil Technologies, Inc., KTI

1982 Kurzweil (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence, Inc., KAI)

1982 Kurzweil Kurzweil Music Systems, Inc 1990 Young Chang Akki Co., Ltd. Young Chang Akki Co., Ltd.Kurzweil Mark 5, 10, 150, Micro Piano Kurzweil K2000, K2500, PC88

1974 Kurzweil Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc. 1980 Xerox Corporation Xerox Imaging SystemsTextBridge ()

2001 host / hostessAvatar

2001 Ramona 1997 Print-to-Speech Reading System

Kurzweil 3000 1997 (Kurzweil Voice

Commands) 1994 Windows Kurzweil Voice for

Windows 1987 Kurzweil Voice

Report

Raymond Kurzweil 23

1985 (Kurzweil VoiceMED) 1984

Kurzweil 250 1976 Omni-Font Xerox

TextBridge 1976 Kurzweil Reading Machine

1975 CCD Flatbed Scanner 1975 1967 SELECT

Harcourt Brace Jovanovich 1964

1964 (Four-Way Analysis of Variance)

2005 The Singularity is

Near, When Humans Transcend Biology 2004 Fantastic Voyage: Live Long

Enough to Live Forever Terry Grossman 2002 (Are We

Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil vs the Critics of Strong A.I.) 1999 The Age of Spiritual Machines, When Computers

Exceed Human Intelligence 1994 The 10% Solution for a

Healthy Life 1990 The Age of Intelligent Machines 1991-1993 ( The Futurecast)Library

Journal KurzweilAI.net 500

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U.S. 6,754,823 Technique for distributing software U.S. 6,747,672 Virtual patient hot spots U.S. 6,692,258 Patient simulator U.S. 6,647,395 Poet personalities U.S. 6,587,583

Compression / decompression algorithm for image documents having text, graphical and color content

U.S. 6,320,982 U.S. 6,246,791 U.S. 6,199,042 U.S. 6,173,264 Reading system

displaying scanned images with dual highlighting U.S. 6,125,347 System for

controlling multiple user application programs by spoken input

U.S. 6,052,663 Reading system which

reads aloud from an image representation of a document

U.S. 6,033,224 Reading machine system for the blind having a dictionary

U.S. 6,014,464 U.S. 5,875,428

Kurzweil Raymond Kurzweil (OCR)-

transhumantechnological singularityfuturology

Raymond Kurzweil 25

Kurzweil Queens

BBS I've Cot a Secret1986 1970 MIT

Kurzweil --

Kurzweil 2002 United States Patent and Trademark OfficeNational Inventors Hall of Fame Lemelson-MIT Prize 50 1999 National Medal of Technology12 3

Kurzweil Kurzweil 1990 Young Chang

Kurzweil alter ego 25 Romona22S1m0ne 22 Romona LifeFX 3D eGain

eGain LifeFX

1950 LifeFX

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2005 Bill Gates Ray Kurzweil Kurzweil National Federation of the Blind2005 Kurzweil sighted

2001 'The Law of Accelerating Returns' Ray Kurzweil Moore's lawTechnological Singularity23Kurzweil 1000 109 1042 Kurzweil 1016

CEOLucie Salhany eGain LifeFX

http://taiwan.cnet.com/enterprise/technology/0,2000062852,20002709,00.htm 23 SingularityKurzweil

infinityevent horizon

34 42 http://udndata.com/sc/story_c1.html

Kurzweil Moore's lawResponse to The Singularity Is Always Near. http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html? main=memelist.html?m=1%23664

Raymond Kurzweil 27

Kurzweil

Kurzweil

21 return

IT 24

Kurzweil

24 http://taiwan.cnet.com/news/special/0,2000064597,20097084,00.htm

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Kurzweil nanobots 250 8 10 10 25

Kurzweil 26 20

20 80

20

DNA

2004 12 Kurzweil Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence 25 http://www.wired.com/news/medtech/0,1286,66585,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_3 26 http://www.forbeschina.com/index.asp?INCName=

MDArticleContent&TopicTypeID= 46&Article ID=1259

Raymond Kurzweil 29

Kurzweil

Kurzweil 2012

2020

Kurzweil 1999 8 3 Business Week27

123 2019 1000 2030 1000 1000 2050 Kurzweil wetware 10 1

ATR Garis

Sussesc Inman Harvey

Kurzweil 2025

2030

27 http://mychannel.pchome.com.tw/channel/class/show_preview.php3

/?d=2001-05-28& enname=asian888&t=.htm&fn=main&view=1

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Kurzweil 2099

(download)(backup)28

Kurzweil Google

Kurzweil Terry Grossman 2004 10

21 2025

28 http://www.phy.ncu.edu.tw/dcc/History/r1BrainComputer.htm

Raymond Kurzweil 31

2030 250

Kurzweil 29

Ray Kurzweil 250

Kurzweil

Kurzweil

Terry Grossman Kurzweil 56

Kurzweil

DNA A G C T

Kurzweil Kurzweil Kurzweil 29 http://www.bioon.com/biology/news/200412/86669.html

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Kurzweil 21 20

15 20

Kurzweil Kurzweil 35

Kurzweil

40

10% 30%Kurzweil

40

Kurzweil

Stevie Wonder

Raymond Kurzweil 33

Raj Reddy Ray Kurzweil

452 900 2,000 Grossman

Kurzweil

A C E

?

Joseph Zibrak Kurzweil Grossman Kurzweil

Kurzweil Grossman

S. Jay Olshansky

Olshansky Johns Hopkins E Olshansky

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Ray Terry Kurzweil Kurzweil Grossman

Ray & Terry 's Total Daily Care Kurzweil 50 6 1.25

Kurzweil 250

Kurzweil

CCD 1999

Michael Shermer30

1980

120

30 http://www.sciam.com.tw/circus/circusshow.asp?FDocNo=724&CL=23

2005 8

Raymond Kurzweil 35

Kurzweil

Kurzweil 21 31(Genetics revolution) RNA (RNA interference)

2020 Nanotechnology revolution 10 Kurzweil 1 2

DNA

Kurzweil (Robotics revolution)

31 http://www.epochtimes.com.hk/5/10/21/10554.htm

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Kurzweil

Kurzweil 2040 10

Kurzweil

www.kurzweiltech.com/

Kurzweil http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?m=10

Kurzweil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil

http://www.kurzweilcyberart.com/

Kurzweil AARON

http://www.kurzweilai.net/ 500

http://www.books.com.tw/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010110691 Kurzweil