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Conditional Climatology Tools

AvnFPS 3.2

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Contributors

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Contributors

• Mike Graf (NWS Headquarters)

• Jerry Griffin (NWS Training Center)

• David Hotz (WFO Morristown, TN)

• Todd Lericos (WFO Caribou)

• Cammye Sims (WFO San Antonio)

• Mark Struthworf (WFO Salt Lake City)

• Jeff Tongue (WFO New York City)

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Objectives

• Describe Conditional Climatology– Definition– Benefits/Limitations

• Discuss new AvnFPS 3.2 climatology tools– Wind Rose – CIG/VSBY Distributions– CIG/VSBY Trends

• Discuss current forecast methods/limitations• Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast Toolkit• Interpret and apply the output

– Case studies– Local case studies

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What is Conditional Climatology?

• A distribution of variables now and in the future based on one or more given conditions.

• Examples:– Pattern Recognition– Conceptual Models– Local Rules of Thumb– Forecaster Experience

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Role of Conditional Climatologyin Aviation Forecasting

• 1960’s– Conditional Climatology Tables - USAF

• 1970’s to present– Numerical models– MOS

• 2000’s– Integration of CC back into the aviation

forecast process

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Benefits of Conditional Climatology?

• Guidance on event duration, intensity and trends

• Limits over forecasting of rare events

• Increases forecaster confidence

• Better results than just using persistence forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance

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Limitations of Conditional Climatology

• Can not be used alone!

• Does not discriminate physical processes

• May not be useful in extreme or rare weather events

• Not fool proof

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Wind Rose Tool

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Applied Wind Rose

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CIG/VSBY Distribution Tool

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Why are we here?

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Why are we here?

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Why are we here?

SOO Intern Lead General

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Why are we here?

SOO Intern Lead General

The SOO is killing me

with all this Training

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CIG/VSBY Trend Tool

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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How Do You Forecast Ceiling Height and Visibility????

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What Tools Do you Use?

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What Tools Do you Use?

• Current Observations• Satellite• MOS• Soundings / BUFKIT• Model Data• Local Studies • Advection• Convection• Persistence

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What Tools Do you Use?

• Current Observations• Satellite• MOS• Soundings / BUFKIT• Model Data• Local Studies • Advection• Convection• Persistence

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Using NWP Model Data to forecast clouds

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Models

• Relative Humidity???

• Model Clouds???

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Model Soundings?

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BUFKIT – RH and Clouds

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Relative Humidity = Clouds?

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Adding “Model” Clouds

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RH with respect to ICE or Water?

RH With Respect to Water RH With Respect to Ice

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RH Time Section

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Model Clouds and Bases

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How good are NWPModels at predicting:

• Moisture?

• It’s Horizontal and Vertical Distribution?

• Cloud Ceilings?

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Model Output Statistics!

• Good idea.

• Removes biases.

• Adds Climatology.

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MAV MOS

• Is the “Weather” in Caribou the same as State College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in Atlanta the same as San Antonio?

• Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and Visibility

Summer (Apr-Sept) Winter (Oct-Mar)

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MAV MOS

• Model “Run time” plus 3 Hour Observation is Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z)

• Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category Probabilities.

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MOS - Ceiling and Visibility Category

Probabilities.

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NGM MOS

• Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern

• Period of Record used for equation Development is Extensive

• 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical

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We need more

• Rules of thumb?

• “in this situation, the cloud base “usually” remains IFR until late morning.”

• CLIMATOLOGY!!!

• “Conditional” Climatology

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Example

18Z TAF

John F. KennedyInternational Airport

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17Z METAR

• METAR KJFK 311651Z 14009KT 10SM BKN007 BKN250 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP226 T01940161

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Situation

• SE Flow Prevails

• When and How Low does the Ceiling and Visibility Go??

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12Z NAM-eta

(Fcst Hr = 05)

Valid 17Z

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15Z RUC

(Fcst Hr = 02)

Valid 17Z

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12Z NAM-eta

(Fcst Hr = 14)

Valid 02Z

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15Z RUC

(Fcst Hr = 11)

Valid 02Z

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GFS MOS

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NGM MOS

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Current TAF

• KJFK 311509Z 311512 14009KT P6SM BKN007 TEMPO 1617 SCT007

• FM1700 14009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT080 SCT140• FM0200 VRB04KT 1SM BR SCT004 SCT040• FM0600 VRB03KT 3/4SM BR BKN004

TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002=

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Joint Distribution

(default)

• May-Jun

• 16-18Z

• SE Wind

• 600-1000’

• Un-restricted Visibility

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Ceiling Distribution

(default)

• May-Jun

• 16-18Z

• SE Wind

• 600-1000’

• Un-restricted Visibility

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Visibility Distribution

(default)

• May-Jun

• 16-18Z

• SE Wind

• 600-1000’

• Un-restricted Visibility

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Ceiling Distribution

• Apr-mid Jun

• 13-22Z

• S-E Wind

• 500-900’

• Un-restricted Visibility

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Visibility Distribution

• Apr-mid Jun

• 13-22Z

• S-E Wind

• 500-900’

• Un-restricted Visibility

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What Would You Forecast?

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What Was Forecast?

• FTUS41 KOKX 311700• TAFJFK• TAF• KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007• TEMPO 1923 SCT007• FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005• FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004• TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002• FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008• FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050=

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TAF based on Climatology?

TAF

KJFK 311728Z 311818 14010KT P6SM BKN007

FM2200 14008KT 3SM BR OVC004

FM0000 14008KT 1/2SM FG VV002

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ACTUAL TAF (no CC)

• KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007• TEMPO 1923 SCT007• FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005• FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004• TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002• FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008• FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050=

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KJFK 311751Z 15007KT 10SM BKN007 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP225 T01890161 10194 20172 56004= KJFK 311851Z 15007KT 10SM VCFG BKN007 19/16 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP222 VIS S 2 1/2 T01890161= KJFK 311951Z 15009KT 8SM BKN007 19/16 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP217 T01890161= KJFK 312051Z 16011KT 8SM OVC007 18/16 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP213 T01830156 58013= KJFK 312151Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC005 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SLP203 T01780161= KJFK 312155Z 15011KT 1/8SM BR OVC003 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6= KJFK 312214Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SFC VIS E-SE 2 1/2 $= KJFK 312251Z 15007KT 1/2SM R04R/3500VP6000FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 SLP204 T01720161= KJFK 312351Z 15009KT 1/2SM R04R/2000V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP204 T01670161 10194 20167 56008= KJFK 010051Z 15006KT 1/2SM R04R/2200V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP203 T01670161= KJFK 010151Z 19009KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2800FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP205 T01670161 $= KJFK 010232Z 18005KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 $= KJFK 010238Z 19006KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010251Z 18007KT 1/8SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP203 T01670161 58001 $= KJFK 010324Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT FG VV001 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010351Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/1400V1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP201 T01670167 $= KJFK 010451Z 17005KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT -DZ FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 DZB35 SLP203 P0000 T01720167

401940167 $= KJFK 010551Z 14006KT 0SM R04R/1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 DZE50 SLP199 P0000 60000 T01720167 10172

20167 58005 $= KJFK 010651Z 15005KT 0SM R04R/1200V1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193 T01720167 $= KJFK 010751Z 18005KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP187 T01720167 $= KJFK 010851Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 56017 $= KJFK 010911Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010925Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2000V3500FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 010951Z 20007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 $= KJFK 011005Z 20006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 011014Z 21006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $= KJFK 011051Z 21004KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP183 T01780172 $= KJFK 011151Z 22006KT 0SM R04R/1000FT FG VV001 18/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP180 T01830178 10183 20167 58002 $=KJFK 011251Z 20005KT 0SM R04R/1000V2000FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP179 T01890183= KJFK 011303Z 19006KT 0SM R04R/1400V2400FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4= KJFK 011340Z 21007KT 0SM R04R/2000V5500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4= KJFK 011351Z 19007KT 0SM R04R/1600V4500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3004 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 SLP173 T01940183= KJFK 011451Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200VP6000FT BR BKN003 21/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SLP170 SFC VIS SE-SW 1/2 CIG 002V004

T02110189 58010= KJFK 011543Z 17006KT 3SM HZ BKN003 22/19 A3003 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SFC VIS SW-W 1 1/2 BKN V SCT= KJFK 011551Z 19006KT 5SM

HZ SCT003 22/18 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP166 SCT V BKN T02220183= KJFK 011651Z 17009KT 8SM FEW008 24/19 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP158 T02390189= KJFK 011751Z 18009KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151 CB DSNT N T02390189 10244 20183 58018= KJFK 011851Z 17010KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 25/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP145 CB DSNT NE TCU DSNT N T02500194= KJFK 011951Z 18015KT 10SM SCT250 25/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T02500189= KJFK 012051Z 18020G24KT 10SM FEW045 SCT250 24/19 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP124 TCU DSNT W T02390189 58027=

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Best times to use Conditional Climatology

• During “steady state” quiet weather situations. • Fog/Stratus events

– Radiation Fog– Advection Fog– Marine Stratus

• Prevailing Wind• Determining Onset and Dissipation Times.• Seasonal Refresher and New Forecasters

orientation.• New TAF sites, where 30-years of data exists

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What You Need to Do

• Develop local Case Studies with your Airports and TAFs to learn how best to integrate the NEW tools into your TAF’s and your forecast operations.

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Summary

• Conditional Climatology improves the TAF process through increased forecaster confidence.

• Must correctly integrate Conditional Climatology with Observations, NWP, MOS and other techniques.

• Conditional Climatology can improve TAF quality and service.

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AVNFPS 3.2 Web Pages• Main Page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/AvnFPS3.2.html

• Supplemental Instructions: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/CS-DH-3.2.doc

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Pre-View - AVNFPS 3.3

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Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3

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Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3

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Thank You!

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References

• BUFKIT: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/

• MOS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml

• MODCV: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/

• MODELS: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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References

• Old Forecast Tools (Ouija Board, Crystal Ball, Dart Board and the “Magic” 8 Ball) available at Wal-Mart, Target and other fine stores!