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Demographic and Enrollment Information

Office of the ChancellorAcademic Affairs

October 2006

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College-Related Demographics

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LA Basin 9th Graders and High School Graduates

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-2011

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

Pub

lic H

S G

radu

ates

HS Graduates Ninth Graders

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Only 66 of Every 100 in the LA Basin

• In 2002-2003, there were 274,188 9th grade students in the Los Angeles Basin.

• In 2005-2006, the Department of Finance projected 180,340 public high school graduates.

• For every 100 9th graders, there were only 66 high school graduates.

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9th Graders and High School Graduatesin the Rest of the State

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-2011

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

Pub

lic H

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HS Graduates Ninth Graders

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Only 75 of Every 100in the Rest of the State

• In 2002-2003, there were 247,125 9th grade students in the rest of the state.

• In 2005-2006, the Department of Finance projected , 183,895 public high school graduates.

• For every 100 9th graders, there were only 74 high school graduates.

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9th Graders

• Almost 160K 9th graders in 2002-03 did not graduate with their 360K+ other classmates in 2005-06.

• In 2005-06, 50% of high school graduates were in the LA Basin. If all 9th graders actually made it to the diploma, 53% of graduates would have been from the Basin.

• Improved h.s. graduation must be coupled with academic rigor and expectations.

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High School Graduates

• “Eligibles” and “Near-Eligibles” become CSU First-Time Freshmen – Admitted Regularly and By Exception

• Others become California Community College Students –Transferring to the CSU 3 to 7 Years Later

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Community College Transfers

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Trends in CCC Credit Enrollments – No Longer

Dropping

• CCC credit enrollments dropped 10% (250K) between 2002-03 and 2003-04.

• CCC credit enrollment dropped 1% (28K) between 2003-04 and 2004-05.

• CCC credit enrollment INCREASED 2% (39K) between 2004-05 and 2005-06.

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AND

Indicators of CCC trends about students completing coursework to transfer increased throughout the same period.

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Definitions of CCC Students

• CREDIT: Took a course for credit during the AY

• TRANSFER DIRECTED: Earned transferable math AND English semester credits

• TRANSFER PREPARED: Earned 56/60+ transferable semester credits with 2.0+

• TRANSFER READY: Transfer Prepared AND math/English coursework earned

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California Community College Students:Credit and Transfer Directed

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Stu

den

ts

Credit Student Transfer Directed

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California Community College Students:Transfer Directed, Prepared, and Ready

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Stu

den

ts

Directed Prepared Ready

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Transfers from the CCC

• Of the almost 150K transfer-ready CCC students in 2003-04, only 67K made their way as transfers to the CSU or the UC in 2004-05.

• It is estimated that adding in transfers

to independent colleges and universities would take the transfer total in 2004-05 to about 80,000 students.

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• This means that almost half of the CCC students ready for CSU or UC transfer in 2003-04 actually transferred in 2004-05. Preliminary data suggests that the same holds true for 2004-05 transfer-ready students.

• More executive outreach between CSU and CCC regional partners may need to be undertaken.

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Example 1: Dominguez Hills

• In fall 2005, DH had 11 feeder CCC campuses that provided 20 or more transfers.

• These CCCs sent 906 fall 2005 transfers to DH.

• They sent a total of 4,000+ transfers to the CSU in total and about 1,600+ transfers to the UC in fall 2005.

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Example 1 Continued

• But altogether the fall 2005 transfers total only (5,600+) 31% of the transfer-ready CCC students at these institutions.

• West LA, Southwest LA, LA Harbor, LB City, El Camino, and Cerritos are CCCs at which DH has a presence on which to build.

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Example 2: East Bay

• In fall 2005, EB had 14 feeder CCC campuses that provided 20 or more transfers.

• These CCCS sent almost 1,110 transfers to EB in fall 2005.

• These CCCs sent 3,900+ transfers to the CSU in total and 2,000+ transfers to the UC in fall 2005.

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Example 2 Continued

• But altogether the fall 2005 transfer total only (5,900+) 30% of the transfer-ready students at these institutions.

• Chabot, Las Positas, Diablo Valley, Ohlone, and Merritt are CCCs with notable transfer-readies and at which EB has a presence on which to build.

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First-Time Freshmen

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28.80%

30.40%

34.80%

36.10%

36.70%

36.80%

39.90%

40.20%

40.50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Inland Empire

San Joaquin Valley

LA/Ventura

Central Coast

Northern

Sacramento Area

San Diego

Orange County

SF Bay

2001 CSU Eligibility Rates for California Public High School Graduates – By Region

CPEC, Regional Differences in University Eligibility, FS 05-08, December 2005

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10.8 11.2 11

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

LA Basin Rest of State State Total

CSU Freshman Participation Rates for California Public High School Graduates: A Third of a Third

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Why Only a Third of a Third?

• UC and CSU eligibility overlap: The top eighth (12.5%) tend to matriculate at UC or other more selective institutions in California.

• While other students are leaving the state, CPEC, UC, CSU, and CCC need to track the extent to which UC and CSU eligible students are matriculating at CCC – considered by some to be another primary destination.

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LA Basin High School Graduates

• In 2004-05, there were 168,219 public high school graduates in the LA Basin. About 51% became California public first-time freshmen in fall 2005.

• Only 18% (a little under 30,000) went to the UC or the CSU. About 18,000 – or 6 of every 10 FTF at a public 4-year -- went to the CSU.

• Almost 56,000 LA Basin graduates went to community colleges – almost double that of the UC/CSU

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Examples of Possible HS Targets in the LA Basin

• 200 of the 550 graduates at Cerritos HS went to community colleges.

• 300 of the 600 graduates at Alhambra HS went to community colleges.

• 200 of the 350 graduates at Culver City HS went to community colleges.

• 150 of the 350 graduates of Inglewood HS went to community colleges.

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Bay Area HS Graduates

• In 2004-05, there were 64,533 public high school graduates in the Bay Area. About 53% became California public first-time freshmen in fall 2005.

• A little under a quarter (15K) went to the UC or the CSU – split about evenly.

• A slightly greater number and proportion -- 18.5K Bay Area graduates -- went to community colleges.

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Examples of Possible Targets in the Bay Area

• 180 of the almost 400 Alameda graduates went to community colleges.

• 200 of the almost 600 Castro Valley graduates went to community colleges.

• 280 of the 390 Oakland graduates went to community colleges.

• 200 of the 500 Mt. Eden graduates went to community colleges.

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Commuting

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32

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8.9%

30.3%

53.7%

7.1% Within 10 milesof two CSUCampusesWithin 10 milesof one CSUcampusWithin 20 milesof a CSU campus

Outside 20 mileradius of a CSUCampus

20 Mile Coverage of CA Public High School GraduatesLA Basin

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Summary

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Summary -- 1

• Academic preparedness varies considerably in the region.

• Commuting patterns matter in the LA Basin (and probably in the Bay Area and the San Diego Area) – with commuting ranges shrinking rapidly.

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Summary -- 2

• BUT -- Students drive past some campuses or leave the area – for programs, to get away from home and experience a new place, or because the local CSU campus wasn’t a good match.

• To develop increased enrollments, campuses need to: offer and publicize quality programs and opportunities; know and develop the campus culture; and direct outreach to students and families with shared interests.