1 eafe - conference 18 - 20 april 2001 salerno, italy model-based analysis of the profitability of...

1 EAFE - Conference 18 - 20 April 2001

Salerno, Italy

Model-based analysisModel-based analysis of the profitability of the profitability of herring fisheryof herring fishery

Herring – An Herring – An

alternative to alternative to

decreasing Baltic decreasing Baltic

cod quotas ?cod quotas ?

Rainer KlepperRainer KlepperRolf LaschRolf Lasch

Institute of Marketanalysis and Institute of Marketanalysis and Agricultural Trade PolicyAgricultural Trade Policy

Braunschweig, GermanyBraunschweig, Germany


Salerno, Italy

(1)(1) BackroundBackround

(2)(2) 1996 – 2001 1996 – 2001

CostsCosts

EarningsEarnings

InputsInputs

(3)(3) Model AssumptionsModel Assumptions

(4)(4) ResultsResults

COD – HERCOD – HER

COD-TAC ReductionCOD-TAC Reduction

(5)(5) ConclusionConclusion

ContentContent


Salerno, Italy


FAIR – ProjectFAIR – Project

TAC (COD) TAC (COD)

HER < 15%HER < 15%

Market/ProcessingMarket/Processing

(2)(2) 1996 – 2001 1996 – 2001





Salerno, Italy


(2)(2) 1996 – 20011996 – 2001

CostsCosts

EarningsEarnings

InputsInputs







Salerno, Italy

Cost Items relative to Returns, 1996 - 2000Cost Items relative to Returns, 1996 - 2000

27

73

100

24

76

100

0 25 50 75 100

"gross margin"

Total costs

Returns

19962000


Salerno, Italy


27

73

100

24

76

100

0 25 50 75 100

"gross margin"

Total costs

Returns

19962000


Salerno, Italy


3

1

1

2

3

8

11

9

36

27

73

100

5

0

1

2

3

6

8

20

35

24

76

100

0

2

0 25 50 75 100

Others

Travel

Provision

Ice & Conserv.

Insurance (fix)

Nets & Gears

Maint. & Repairs

Fuel & Lub.oil

Marketing

Wages & Soc.Ins.

"gross margin"

Total costs

Returns

19962000


Salerno, Italy


3

1

1

2

3

8

11

9

36

27

73

100

5

0

1

2

3

6

8

20

35

24

76

100

0

2

0 25 50 75 100

Others

Travel

Provision

Ice & Conserv.

Insurance (fix)

Nets & Gears

Maint. & Repairs

Fuel & Lub.oil

Marketing

Wages & Soc.Ins.

"gross margin"

Total costs

Returns

basic model units:

kg

DM

hour

trip

month


Salerno, Italy

Catch Rates Catch Rates CODCOD, fishing grounds, , fishing grounds, 19961996

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Arcona Sea

Western Baltic

Bornholm West

Bornholm East

Eastern Baltic

0

100

200

300

400

kg/ h

COD 1996


Salerno, Italy

Catch Rates Catch Rates CODCOD, fishing grounds, , fishing grounds, 20012001


Arcona Sea

Western Baltic

0

100

200

300

400

kg/ h

COD 2001


Salerno, Italy

Catch Rates Catch Rates COD & HERCOD & HER, fishing grounds, , fishing grounds, 20012001


Arcona Sea

Western Baltic

HERING0

100

200

300

400

COD & HER 2001

kg/ h


Salerno, Italy

Fish Prices for Fish Prices for CODCOD in DM/kg, 1996 - in DM/kg, 1996 - 20012001

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00


COD1996

2001


Salerno, Italy

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00


COD1996

2001

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

JA N F E B M A R A P R M A Y JU N JU L A U G S E P O C T N O V D E C

HER

Fish Prices for Fish Prices for COD & HERCOD & HER in DM/kg, 1996 - in DM/kg, 1996 - 20012001


Salerno, Italy


(2)(2) 1996 – 2001 1996 – 2001

CostsCosts

EarningsEarnings

InputsInputs







Salerno, Italy

Baseline Solution - Assumptions - SIM 2001Baseline Solution - Assumptions - SIM 2001

• Assumptions (Assumptions (CConstraints)onstraints)

– TAC : 212 t CODTAC : 212 t COD, HER free, HER free / / 26.5 m 26.5 m Vessel Vessel – seadays : 258 (incl. charging and recharging)seadays : 258 (incl. charging and recharging)– max. days /trip : 6 for COD, 2 for HERmax. days /trip : 6 for COD, 2 for HER– market supply (one trip/month, except JUL)market supply (one trip/month, except JUL)– basic unit (kg, DM, hour, tripsbasic unit (kg, DM, hour, trips, month, month))

– deterministic modeldeterministic model– MIP (mixed integer model), daysMIP (mixed integer model), days

• Objective FunctionObjective Function --> --> MAX ! Gross Margin MAX ! Gross Margin (Proceeds – Variable (Proceeds – Variable

Costs)Costs)


Salerno, Italy


(2)(2) 1996 – 2001 1996 – 2001

CostsCosts

EarningsEarnings

InputsInputs







Salerno, Italy

Baseline Solution - Results - SIM 2001Baseline Solution - Results - SIM 2001

• No Herring CatchNo Herring Catch– Proceeds [tDM] Proceeds [tDM]

– Gross Margin [tDM] Gross Margin [tDM]

– Seadays Seadays

– NNumber umber ooff trips trips

– CCatch total [t]atch total [t]

– Catch compositionCatch composition

• CODCOD [%] [%]

• FLX FLX [ [%%]]

• HER HER [[%%]]

• OthersOthers [%][%]

absoluteabsolute

737 737

276 276

162 162

29 29

336336

Catch ProceedsCatch Proceeds

62 %62 % 79 % 79 %

33 %33 % 16 % 16 %

-- - -

5 %5 % 5 % 5 %

relativerelative

100 % 100 %

100 % 100 %

100 %100 %

100 %100 %

100 %100 %


Salerno, Italy

Baseline, COD and HER & COD – Quota Baseline, COD and HER & COD – Quota ReductionReduction

100 100 1000

100

COD baseline COD & HER COD (TAC) -15%

0

100

Proceeds Gross Margin Catch (total) Seadays Trips

%

6279

3316

0%

100%

Catch Proceeds Catch Proceeds Catch Proceeds

others

HER

FLX

COD

% c

om

posi

tion


Salerno, Italy


100 107 85100 102 83100 143 860

100


0

100

Proceeds GM Catch (total) Seadays Trips

%

6279

3316

0%

100%


others

HER

FLX

COD

% c

om

posi

tion


Salerno, Italy


100 107 85100 102 83100 143 86

124141

9093

0

100


0

100


%

6279

3316

0%

100%


others

HER

FLX

COD

% c

om

posi

tion


Salerno, Italy


6279

43

7361

78

3316

22

15 351733

8

0%

100%


others

HER

FLX

COD

% c

om

posi

tion

100 107 85100 102 83100 143 86

124141

9093

0

100


0

100


%


Salerno, Italy

COD – Quota Reduction / Future COD – Quota Reduction / Future DevelopmentsDevelopments

? HER 2001HER 2001? HER Fish Price HER Fish Price + + ?? % %? HER Catch Rate HER Catch Rate + + ?? % %? HER, COD Fish Price HER, COD Fish Price + + ?? % %? HER, COD Catch Rate HER, COD Catch Rate + + ?? % %? no HER, COD Catch Rateno HER, COD Catch Rate + + ?? % %? no HER, COD Fish Priceno HER, COD Fish Price + + ?? % %

9494 % GM % GM + + 3030 % % + + 3737 % % + + 99 % % + + 2828 % % + + 1313 % %

85100 83 86... ... 100... ...0

100


0

100

Proceeds Gross Margin Catch (total) Seadays Trips

%

??


Salerno, Italy

COD – Quota Reduction / Future COD – Quota Reduction / Future DevelopmentsDevelopments

100 85 102 107 108 105 105 97 87100 83 94 100 100 100 100 100 100100 86 177 182 223 190 160 88 88

90

122 122

112 114

92 9493

145 145

134 131

100107

119

134

0

100

200

baselineCOD -+0%ohne HER

no HER catch with HER catch(2000)

with HER catch? HER Price

+30%

const.HERPrice

? HER catchrates+37%

with HER catch? COD cach

rate+28%

wiht HER catch? COD Price

+9%

no HER catch? COD Price

+13%

no HER catch? Fuel oil

-70%

0

100

200


Salerno, Italy


(2)(2) 1996 – 2001 1996 – 2001

CostsCosts

EarningsEarnings

InputsInputs







Salerno, Italy

ConclusionConclusion

HER no Alternative to COD HER no Alternative to COD

(26.5 m vessels, active fishery)(26.5 m vessels, active fishery)

additional income is very lowadditional income is very low

Globefish: „rising prices of small pelagics“Globefish: „rising prices of small pelagics“

(„reduced supply of Atlantic herring“)(„reduced supply of Atlantic herring“)

further increase in COD pricesfurther increase in COD prices


Salerno, Italy

Thank youThank youfor your attentionfor your attention

Rainer KlepperRainer KlepperRolf LaschRolf Lasch

Institute of Marketanalysis and Institute of Marketanalysis and Agricultural Trade PolicyAgricultural Trade Policy

Braunschweig, GermanyBraunschweig, Germany

1 eafe - conference 18 - 20 april 2001 salerno, italy model-based analysis of the profitability of...

Documents

eafe conference

results cod

conclusion slide

rates cod

codtac reduction

model assumptions

conclusion content slide

italy fish prices