1 electricity markets and policy group energy analysis department exploration of resource and...
TRANSCRIPT
1Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
Exploration of Resource and Transmission Expansion Decisions in the Western Renewable Energy Zone
Initiative
Andrew Mills, Amol Phadke, Ryan Wiser Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
November 5, 2009
2Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
Framework of the WREZ Model
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.31 36.8 73.3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621
TWh
Bu
s-b
ar
Co
st
($/M
Wh
) Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.31 36.8 73.3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621
TWh
De
liv
ere
d C
os
t
($/M
Wh
) Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.31 36.8 73.3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621
TWh
Ad
jus
ted
De
liv
ere
d C
os
t ($
/MW
h) Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Renewable Resource Ranking for Southwest Load Zone:
Bus-Bar Cost ($/MWh)
+
Transmission Cost ($/MWh)
+
Integration Cost ($/MWh)
-
Capacity Value ($/MWh)
-
TOD Energy Value ($/MWh)
Energy Generated
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.31 36.8 73.3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621
TWh
Bus-b
ar Co
st
($/MW
h)
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Ad
just
ed
De
live
red
C
ost
($
/MW
h)D
eliv
ere
d C
ost
($
/MW
h)B
us-
ba
r C
ost
($
/MW
h)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.31 36.8 73.3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621
TWh
Bu
s-b
ar
Co
st
($/M
Wh
) Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.31 36.8 73.3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621
TWh
De
liv
ere
d C
os
t
($/M
Wh
) Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.31 36.8 73.3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621
TWh
Ad
jus
ted
De
liv
ere
d C
os
t ($
/MW
h) Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Renewable Resource Ranking for Southwest Load Zone:
Bus-Bar Cost ($/MWh)
+
Transmission Cost ($/MWh)
+
Integration Cost ($/MWh)
-
Capacity Value ($/MWh)
-
TOD Energy Value ($/MWh)
Energy Generated
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0.31 36.8 73.3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621
TWh
Bus-b
ar Co
st
($/MW
h)
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydro
Ad
just
ed
De
live
red
C
ost
($
/MW
h)D
eliv
ere
d C
ost
($
/MW
h)B
us-
ba
r C
ost
($
/MW
h)
3Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
LBNL WREZ Model Extension
Assign WREZ resources to load zones such that assignment minimized total adjusted delivered costs WECC-wide
Subject to:
Load zone RPS Targets
Limited resource quantities
Build total resource ranking database for each load zone from Peer Analysis
Tool
Determine Marginal Adjusted Delivered Costs for each load zone based on cost of resource that would be procured if RPS is
increased by one more unit
Summarize resource portfolio, transmission expansion, costs, and supply curve for
each load zone
Develop new scenarios by
changing input assumptions to
Peer Analysis Tool
4Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
Cases Used to Test Sensitivity to Assumptions and Policy Decisions
Cases Considered
Individual best resources
Competition without RECs
33% RPS
25% RPS
Existing RPS
Policies
Transmission Higher Wind
Integration Costs
Lower Resource Adequacy
Costs
No Federal ITC/PTC
WECC-wide
RECs
RECs with
Limits
Lower Unit Cost: 765 kV
Only Shorter Lines
Solar Sensitivity
Technology Choice
Technology Costs
RPS Levels
Competition with RECs
Detailed Results of These Scenarios Presented Today
Environmental Energy Technologies Division • Energy Analysis Department
WECC-wide 33% RPS
6Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
7Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
33% RPSBase Case
8Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
Detailed Base Case Results: Resources and Transmission Expansion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Alb
uque
rque
Billi
ngs
Boi
se
Cal
gary
Cas
per
Den
ver
El P
aso
Las
Veg
as
Los
Ang
eles
Pho
enix
Por
tland
Ren
o
Sac
ram
ento
Sal
t Lak
e C
ity
San
Die
go
San
Fra
ncis
co/B
ay A
rea
Sea
ttle
Spo
kane
Tuc
son
Van
couv
er, C
anad
a
En
erg
y F
rom
Eac
h R
eso
urc
e (T
Wh
/yr)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
New
Tra
nsm
issi
on
Cap
acit
y (G
W-m
i)
Hydro Biomass Wind Solar Geothermal GW-miRESULTS:
New Wind: • 48.2 GW
New Solar:• 25.0 GW
Transmission Investment:• $26.3 Billion
Average Distance to Resources:• 245 miles
9Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Ad
just
ed D
eliv
ered
Co
st (
$/M
Wh
)
0K
2K
4K
6K
8K
10K
12K
14K
16K
Hyd
ro
Bio
mas
s
Win
d
Sol
ar
Geo
ther
mal
Load
-site
d C
CG
T(S
acra
men
to)
New
Tra
nsm
issi
on
Cap
acit
y (G
W-m
i)
Bus-bar Cos t Carbon Cos t at $35/tonCO2Tranm iss ion and Losses Cos t Energy Value Capacity Value Integration Cos tGW-m i
Adjusted Delivered Cost
Detailed Base Case Results: Costs
Wind is responsible for 63% of the transmission capacity expansion
Transmission costs for wind are important, but are only 21% of the total costs of wind, on average
Bus-bar costs of wind, 75% of the total costs of wind, are much larger
Environmental Energy Technologies Division • Energy Analysis Department
No Federal ITC or PTC Case
11Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
12Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
No Fed. ITC or PTC Case
82% less solar is procured in this case relative to Base case
13Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
Summary Across All Scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Ba
se C
ase
765
kV
Sh
ort
Lin
e
Low
Ad
equ
acy
Co
st
Hig
h W
ind
Intg
No
Fe
d. IT
C o
r P
TC
So
l Th
rm D
ry w
Sto
r
So
l Th
rm W
et
no S
tor
Fix
ed
PV
Low
Co
st S
ol T
hrm
Low
Co
st F
xd P
V
WE
CC
RE
C
RE
C w
ith L
imits
Sta
te R
EC
w L
imits
Sens itivity Solar Tech. Solar Cost RECs
Re
ne
wa
ble
En
erg
y (
TW
h/y
r)
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Biom ass
Geotherm al
WECC Wide Results
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
Base
Cas
eIn
dv B
e st
Exist
ing R
PS25
% R
PS76
5 kV
Shor
t Line
High
Win
d In
tgLo
w Ad
equa
cy C
ost
N o In
cent
ives
Sol T
hrm
Dry
w S
tor
Sol T
hrm
Dry
no
Stor
Sol T
hrm
Wet
no
S tor
Trac
king
PVFi
xed
P VLo
w Co
st S o
l Thr
mLo
w Co
st F x
d PV
Agre
ss P
V C o
st R
edct
WE C
C RE
CRE
C wi
th L
imits
Stat
e RE
CSt
ate
REC
w Lim
its
RPS Sens itivity Solar Tech. Solar Cos t RECs
Rene
wabl
e En
ergy
(TW
h/yr
)
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Biom ass
Geotherm al
WECC Wide Results
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Co
st R
elat
ive
to B
ase
Cas
e ($
/MW
h)
0K
10K
20K
30K
40K
50K
60K
765
kV
Sho
rt L
ine
Low
Ade
quac
y C
ost
Hig
h W
ind
Intg
No
Fed
. IT
C o
r P
TC
Sol
Thr
m D
ry w
Sto
r
Sol
Thr
m W
et n
o S
tor
Fix
ed P
V
Low
Cos
t Sol
Thr
m
Low
Cos
t Fxd
PV
WE
CC
RE
C
RE
C w
ith L
imits
Sta
te R
EC
w L
imits
Sensitivity Solar Tech. Solar Cost RECs
New
Tra
nsm
issi
on
Cap
acit
y (G
W-m
i)
Avg. Relative Cost ($/MWh)Marg. Relative Cost ($/MWh)GW-miBase Case GW-mi
WECC Wide Results
14Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
Conclusions• Wind is the largest contributor to meeting RPS targets
WECC-wide
• Transmission investment costs are substantial, but only a fraction of the costs required to meet a 33% RPS
• Long transmission lines (> 400 miles) can be economically justified in particular cases, but most transmission lines will be relatively short (< 250 miles)
• Transmission expansion can be reduced through Renewable Energy Credits
• Hydro, biomass, and geothermal contributions to the portfolio do not change significantly with increasing renewable demand or sensitivity cases
• Key uncertainties can shift the balance between wind and solar in the renewable resource portfolio
15Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
Questions?
Special thanks to Josh Finn and Sally Maki of Black & Veatch for assistance with generating maps
For more information:
WREZ: www.westgov.org/wga/initiatives/wrez/
Andrew Mills, [email protected] (510) 486-4059http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/re-pubs.html
16Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department
Starting Point Assumptions
• All load zones meet RPS targets with electricity delivered to their load zone (no Renewable Energy Credits)
• Solar technology is wet-cooled solar thermal with six hours of thermal storage
• Bus-bar costs:– ZITA provided capital cost with IPP financing
– 30% ITC available for all U.S. renewable resources
• Transmission costs:– Pro-rata share of single circuit 500 kV transmission line
– Pro-rata share based on nameplate capacity of renewable resource
• Market Value Adjustment Factors:– Resource adequacy cost is $156/kW-yr
– Wind integration cost is $5/MWh