1

Human Populations

Population Clockshttp://www.census.gov/main/

www/popclock.htmlU.S. 313,293,842

World 7,004,581,87805:36 UTC (EST+5) Apr 03,

2012

3

Human Population Levels Throughout History

ADD FIG. 4.2

Current World Birth and Death Rates

• Every second: about 4 children are born, while about 2 other people die

In 2010• Net gain: 2.3 humans were added to the

world population every second • 227,000/day

• 83 million more people in one year

Rank Country or Area Population1 China 1,323,591,5832 India 1,156,897,7663 United States 307,212,1234 Indonesia 240,271,5225 Brazil 198,739,2696 Pakistan 174,578,5587 Bangladesh 156,050,8838 Nigeria 149,229,0909 Russia 140,041,247

10 Japan 127,078,67911 Mexico 111,211,78912 Philippines 97,976,60313 Vietnam 88,576,75814 Ethiopia 85,237,33815 Germany 82,329,75816 Egypt 78,866,63517 Turkey 76,805,52418 Congo (Kinshasa) 68,692,54219 Iran 66,429,28420 Thailand 65,998,436

Rank Country or Area Population1 India 1,656,553,6322 China 1,303,723,3323 United States 439,010,2534 Indonesia 313,020,8475 Ethiopia 278,283,1376 Pakistan 276,428,7587 Nigeria 264,262,4058 Brazil 260,692,4939 Bangladesh 233,587,279

10 Congo (Kinshasa) 189,310,84911 Philippines 171,964,18712 Mexico 147,907,65013 Egypt 137,872,52214 Uganda 128,007,51415 Vietnam 111,173,58316 Russia 109,187,35317 Turkey 100,955,18818 Japan 93,673,82619 Sudan 88,227,76120 Iran 81,490,039

2010 Population Numbers by Country 2060 (estimated)

6

ADD TABLE 4.1

7

Human Population Levels Throughout History

ADD FIG. 4.2

Exponential Growth = the increase in a population (biotic potential) assumes no resource limitations. Example: Bacterial Growth

Carrying Capacity = Maximum population an ecosystem can maintain on a sustainable basis

Fur Seals were almost hunted to extinction.

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World Population Growth 1750 - 2100

High

Medium

Low

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

21950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High10.9

Medium9.3

Low7.3

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

illio

ns)

2000 Projected Population Growth

Oops…By 2012 we have already exceeded 7 billion

Factors Affecting Natural Rate of Increase

Developed Countries50

40

30

20

10

017751800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Rate ofnatural increase

birth rate

death rate

Rate of natural increase Rate of natural increase = birth rate = birth rate ––death rate death rate

Developing Countries50

40

30

20

10

017751800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Rat

e p

er 1

,000

peo

ple birth rate

Rate ofnaturalincrease

death rate

Year

© 2004 B

roo

ks/Co

le – Th

om

son

Learn

ing

Age Cohorts = allows a study of the # ofindividuals of the same age group and sex

It helps to plan for the different needs of the parts of a population, like children or old people.

So, the rate of growth declines, but the population still grows quickly. Why?

15

Regional Declines in Total Fertility Rates

We hope it continues to decline!

Births per woman

< 2

2-2.9

3-3.9

4-4.9

5+

Data notavailable

Fertility Rate per Woman

Primary Education Completion Rate 1995-2001

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Education and Fertility Rates

CIESIN 2005% of Children aged 0-5 years

Underweight in 2000

Africa has the most severe nutrition problem

Under-5 mortality 2003 (WHO 2006 Annual Report)

World Health Organization data 2001 (from Global Health Council http://www.globalhealth.org)

Leading Causes of Death in Children (<5y/o)

Role of malnutrition - 2001Perinatal Perinatal (22%)(22%)

All other All other causes (29%)causes (29%)

HIV / AIDS HIV / AIDS (4%)(4%)Diarrhea Diarrhea

(12%)(12%)

Measles (5%)

Malaria Malaria (8%)(8%)

Pneumonia Pneumonia (20%)(20%)

MalnutritionMalnutritionunderlying underlying

factor (60%)factor (60%)

What are the principal factors associated with child mortality?

1. Education

2. Nutrition

3. Family income

4. Water, Sanitation, housing

5. Health Care

6. War and violence

7. Inequality

Common denominator: Poverty and Disparity

NYT Feb 11, 2001

FOOD INSECURITYand OBESITY

linked to RISING INEQUALITY

Do we have the resources to improve basic conditions globally?

Cosmetics (USA)

Ice cream (EU)

Perfumes (USA & EU)

Pet foods (USA & EU)

Business entertainment (Japan)

Cigarettes (EU)

Alcoholic drinks (EU)

Narcotics (global)

Military (global)

8111217

3550

105400780

Basic education

Water & sanitation

Reproductive health services

Basic health and nutrition

Source: Human Development Report 1998, Chapter 1, p.37, UNDP

6

9

12

13

1998 spending ( $Billions ) Cost for universal access

NYT 071107

Decisions on how many children to have are influenced by many factors, including culture, religion, politics, need for old-age security, and immediate family finances.

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China's one-child-per-family policy decreased the country's fertility rate from 6 to 1.8 in twodecades.

However, the policy is very controversial.

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Fig. 4.13

The US is #1 !

• Not only in military spending but:• The US has the highest fertility rates

of any 1st world nations.• The US also has the highest infant

mortality rates of any 1st world nation.

• The US has the highest STD rate of any 1st world nation

2011 - world's top 15 military spenders

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

US Arms Sales

US Arms industry is larger than rest of world combined

Every year the US sells over $6 Billion of arms to poor countries

Lucrative industry – little regulation

SCF State of the World's Mothers 2004

In Phillips County,Arkansas, the birth rate among teenage girls in 2000 was 127 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19 - a rate higher than in 94 developing countries.

A fifth of 20-yr old women who gave birthin the US gave birth did so in their teens

Birth rates per 1000 women aged 15-19

Infant Mortality Rate, 2002

* 2001.Data: International estimates—OECD Health Data 2005;State estimates—National Vital Statistics System, Linked Birth and Infant Death Data (AHRQ 2005a).

2.2

3.0 3.03.3 3.5

4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.55.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6

7.0

0

5

10

Infa

nt

de

ath

s p

er 1

,000

liv

e b

irth

s

International variation

Source: Commonwealth Fund National Scorecard on U.S. Health System Performance, 2006 7

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Japan

France

Germany

Spain

Greece

UK

Czech Republic

Portugal

Belgium

Hungary

Italy

Denmark

Netherlans

Australia

Poland

Canada

Korea

New Zealand

USA

*Austria, Finland, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland had fewer than 20 deaths reported and therefore rates were not calculated.

Youth violence Olympics—Homicide rates among youth aged 10-29 (most recent year available) from the World Health Organizations’ World Report on Violence and Health, 2002*

Krug et. al. 2002

United Nations Human Development Report 2007

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

Lif

e E

xp

ecta

ncy (

years

)

510

1520

25

30

HEALTH OLYMPICS 2005

UN Human Development report 2007

Life Expectancy (years) - Top 30 Nations

http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/

The US spends more than 2 – 100x/ person on health care than other nations but with a lower life expectancy than most 1st world nations.

GLOBAL Health: A Take Home Message is Sharing.

• The health of populations is determined mostly by how well that population’s resources are shared and •early childhood is most important period.

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