1 juvenile corrections population forecasting advisory committee wednesday, march 24, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
1
Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
2
Committee Members
• Mark Eddy – OR Social Learning Center
• Judge Tom Hart - Marion
• Donna Keddy – DHS
• David Koch – Mult Co. (on phone)
• Jeff Lichtenberg – Jefferson Co.
• Torri Lynn – Linn Co.
• Colette Peters - OYA
3
• Introductions• Committee Business – Chairperson• Roundtable – Possible forecast issues, Juvenile justice
trends• Background – DOC, PSR, DCC (discretionary)
Populations• Demand Forecast
– Options• Close Custody Populations• Prior, Preliminary Forecast• Statistical Summary
Next Meeting:Wednesday September 1st, 1:30 BAM Conference Room
4
Background
• Close Custody Groups:– Adult Court Beds – “DOC”– Public Safety Reserve Beds – “PSR”– Discretionary Close Custody – “DCC” (DBA)
• DOC and PSR: direct forecasts.
• DCC forecast is for bed “demand”.
• Committee defines “current demand”
• Objective measure is desirable
5
Demand Forecast
• April 2010 forecast– Continuation of past approach– Based on info from Referrals (Abuse?, JCP?)– Index applied to demand used for April 2009 forecast– Provide “Level of Service” indices?
• Discuss options (different approach)– Lack maturity – better to wait– Availability of forecaster resource– Algorithmic / Purely Objective– “Level of Service” indices– County Resource Levels (David)
6
Demand Forecast
• April 2010 Forecast
• DCC bed demand of 550 in early 2009
• Index approach 2009 to 2010 and forecast– Simple index graphs (# felonies)
• Reduction to around 500
• Question assumption of future demand increase
7
DemandFelony Referrals per Month - Year 1996 through 2009
DCC Population
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1996
01
1997
01
1998
01
1999
01
2000
01
2001
01
2002
01
2003
01
2004
01
2005
01
2006
01
2007
01
2008
01
2009
01
Ref
erra
ls
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Bed
s
C Felony A/B Felony DCC Population
8
DemandFelony Referrals per Month - Year 2007 through 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007
01
2008
01
2009
01
C Felony A/B Felony Linear (A/B Felony) Linear (C Felony)
9
Close Custody – DCC, DOC, PSR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan
19
96
Jan
19
97
Jan
19
98
Jan
19
99
Jan
20
00
Jan
20
01
Jan
20
02
Jan
20
03
Jan
20
04
Jan
20
05
Jan
20
06
Jan
20
07
Jan
20
08
Jan
20
09
DCC DOC PSR
10
Close Custody – DCC, DOC, PSR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700Ja
n 2
00
7
Jan
20
08
Jan
20
09
DCC DOC PSR
11
Forecasts – DCC, DOC, PSR
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900Ja
n 2
00
7
Jan
20
08
Jan
20
09
Jan
20
10
Jan
20
11
Jan
20
12
Jan
20
13
DCC DOC PSR
Index Adjusted to Reference=550 in Early 2009
Prior DCC Forecast
Preliminary DCC Forecast
DOC and PSR – Essentially Unchanged
12
Demand Forecast Option One
• Based on Referral, JCP, Abuse information
• Indices for Serious, Moderate, Low
• Examples, Number in DCC over time
• Committee input on factors– What matters for “demand”
• OYA or Committee justify appropriate connection to beds
13
Demand Forecast Option Two
• Based on above Plus County/Community treatment availability
• “ascertain relationship between youth’s risk and access to services”
• Aggregate criminality in excess of available service?
• OYA vs overall need?
• Complex
14
Demand – Bottom Line
• Absolute measure does not exist• Index measures:
– Can quantify youth characteristics – Can compare to available services– Can quantify entry/stay from history– Can compare now relative to past
• Interpretation of Index– Subjectivity connecting index
measures to number of beds.
15
Other Forecast Issues
• Include Low, Mid, High indices (if possible)– Input on factors?
• Planned update to community forecast
• Unlikely to change
• Provide with regular forecast
• Appendix or something – thoughts?
16
Prison Intakes by AgePrison Intake Age by Year
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Over 30
26-30
22-25
20-21
17-19
17
Prison Intakes by AgePrison Intake Age by Year
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
22-25
20-21
17-19
18
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
• Referrals (felony, misdemeanor, violation, other)
• Rate shows stronger decline • Felony Referral Graphs
– A/B/C and Person/Other
Year Amount of Reduction
2000 2009 Number Percent Annual Percent
Felonies 8,395 4,468 3,927 47% 6.8%
Misdemeanors 21,664 15,369 6,295 29% 3.7%
Violations 23,381 15,433 7,948 34% 4.5%
Total 53,440 35,270 18,170 34% 4.5%
19
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Felony Referrals by Year and Class
2,335 2,054 1,724 1,751 1,696 1,432 1,428 1,333 1,183 1,086
953865
815 770 848763 823 796 687 639
5,100
4,6464,460 4,249 4,033
4,137 3,813 3,8883,333
2,741
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
C
B
A
20
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
• Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other
2,239 2,171 2,136 2,135 2,152 2,150 1,989 1,968 1,787 1,576
6,1565,395
4,863 4,635 4,429 4,1854,076 4,053
3,4212,892
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
Person Related Other
21
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other
2,239 2,171 2,136 2,135 2,152 2,150 1,989 1,968 1,787 1,576
6,1565,395
4,863 4,635 4,429 4,1854,076 4,053
3,4212,892
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
Person Related Other
Person Related: Sex Offense Assault Homicide Related Weapons Robbery Person Other
Other: Arson Burglary Theft Criminal Mischief Substance/Alcohol Other
53% Drop
30% Drop
22
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Felony Referrals -- Race and Type
African7%
Hispani12%
Other6%
White75%
African6%
Hispani18%
Other7%
White69%
African11%
Hispani13%
Other7%
White69%
African13%
Hispani26%
Other9%
White52%
2000 2009
Other
Person Related
23
Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons
• Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement• http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/asp/State_Facility_Operation.asp
• Number of committed juveniles – total• Includes state, local, public, private
• Calculated Rate: number per 100,000• Using ages 9-17 for total population• http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/comparison_selection.asp
• Rates and change in rates: 1999 and 2006“Includes juveniles in placement in the facility as part of a court-ordered disposition. Committed juveniles may have
been adjudicated and disposed in juvenile court or convicted and sentenced in criminal court.”
Sickmund, Melissa, Sladky, T.J., and Kang, Wei. (2008) "Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Databook."
Online. Available: http://www.ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/
24
Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons
• Rate per 100,000 – Year 1999
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Ver
mon
tH
awai
iW
est
Virg
inia
New
Mis
sour
iM
aryl
and
Mas
sach
uset
tsN
orth
Car
olin
aC
onne
ctic
utM
aine
New
Jer
sey
Neb
rask
aM
onta
naId
aho
Mis
siss
ippi
Okl
ahom
aN
ew Y
ork
Ark
ansa
sIll
inoi
sK
entu
cky
Pen
nsyl
vani
aG
eorg
iaD
elaw
are
Dis
tric
t of
Was
hing
ton
Min
neso
taA
laba
ma
Ten
ness
eeIo
wa
Nor
th D
akot
aC
olor
ado
Uta
hN
evad
aW
isco
nsin
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Ariz
ona
Ohi
oT
exas
Rho
de I
slan
dV
irgin
iaK
ansa
sM
ichi
gan
Indi
ana
New
Mex
ico
Flo
rida
Cal
iforn
iaS
outh
Car
olin
aO
rego
nA
lask
aLo
uisi
ana
Wyo
min
gS
outh
Dak
ota
213
311
25
Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons
• Rate per 100,000 – Year 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Ver
mon
tM
issi
ssip
piH
awai
iC
onne
ctic
utM
aryl
and
Nor
th C
arol
ina
New
Jer
sey
Mas
sach
uset
tsN
ew H
amps
hire
Mai
neM
isso
uri
Neb
rask
aG
eorg
iaIll
inoi
sW
ashi
ngto
nN
ew M
exic
oA
rizon
aT
enne
ssee
Okl
ahom
aN
ew Y
ork
Loui
sian
aS
outh
Car
olin
aD
istr
ict
of C
olum
bia
Wis
cons
inV
irgin
iaD
elaw
are
Mic
higa
nM
onta
naU
tah
Ken
tuck
yU
nite
d S
tate
sN
evad
aC
alifo
rnia
Min
neso
taA
rkan
sas
Idah
oO
hio
Tex
asA
lask
aW
est
Virg
inia
Kan
sas
Ala
bam
aP
enns
ylva
nia
Iow
aO
rego
nIn
dian
aR
hode
Isl
and
Flo
rida
Col
orad
oN
orth
Dak
ota
Wyo
min
gS
outh
Dak
ota
173
232
26
Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons
• Change in Rate – 1999 to 2006
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Mis
siss
ippi
Loui
sian
aS
outh
Car
olin
aC
onne
ctic
utN
ew M
exic
oN
ew J
erse
yN
orth
Car
olin
aM
aryl
and
Geo
rgia
Ariz
ona
Ala
ska
Cal
iforn
iaW
ashi
ngto
nIll
inoi
sM
ichi
gan
Mas
sach
uset
tsV
irgin
iaT
enne
ssee
Ore
gon
Wis
cons
inM
aine
Neb
rask
aU
tah
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Dis
tric
t of
Col
umbi
aD
elaw
are
Nev
ada
Okl
ahom
aN
ew Y
ork
New
Ham
pshi
reV
erm
ont
Kan
sas
Mis
sour
iT
exas
Ohi
oH
awai
iM
inne
sota
Indi
ana
Ken
tuck
yF
lorid
aS
outh
Dak
ota
Mon
tana
Ark
ansa
sIo
wa
Ala
bam
aR
hode
Isl
and
Pen
nsyl
vani
aId
aho
Wyo
min
gC
olor
ado
Nor
th D
akot
aW
est
Virg
inia
-25%-19%
27
Possible Factors
• Demographics
• Current Offense
• Prior Offenses
• Previous OYA Supervision
• JCP Assessments DHS’s Abuse
28
Possible FactorsCurrent Age Felony A/B/CAge at First Referral Person OffenseGender Sex OffenseRace/Ethnic Drug OffenseCounty Weapon Offense
OYA's Severity ScoreJCP RDJCP RI N Prior Felony A/B/CJCP PF N Prior Person OffenseJCP MH N Prior Sex Offense
N Prior Drug OffenseAbuse Abandon N Prior Weapon OffenseAbuse Neglect N Prior ReferralsAbuse Threat Harm Sum Prior OYA SeverityAbuse SexAbuse Mental Prior OYA Supervision
29
Explanatory Ability
How much better than chance alone…• Demographics – 3x (race/ethnic, sex, county)• Current Offense – 3x• OYA history, JCP, Abuse history – 11x• Prior Offenses – 12x (DB: youth in state??)• Current, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 12x• Demographics, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 13x• Current, Prior, OYA, JCP, Abuse – 15x• “Everything” – 16x• ***Age*** (can’t remember)
30
DemandFelony Referrals and Demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
60019
9601
1998
01
2000
01
2002
01
2004
01
2006
01
2008
01
2010
01
2012
01
2014
01
2016
01
2018
01
Ref
erra
ls
01002003004005006007008009001,000
Bed
s
C Felony A/B Felony Prev Fcst
DCC Population Series5