1-nscb small area estimates for evidence-based policy-making and better targeted focused programs

8/10/2019 1-NSCB Small Area Estimates for Evidence-based Policy-making and Better Targeted Focused Programs

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1

1 2ndAnnual M&E Forum

JOEncarnacion/7-8 November 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Small Area Estimates: For Evidence-based Policy-making and Better Targeted/Focused Programs

2ndAnnual M&E ForumThe BayLeaf, Manila, 7-8 November 2012

Presented byMs. Jessamyn O. Encarnacion

Director, Social Statistics OfficeNational Statistical Coordination Board



Outline of Presentation

I. What Do We Want To Achieve?

II. Efforts of the Philippine Statistical System in the

Generation of Small Area Estimates

III. Small Area Estimates of Poverty

IV. Some Policy/Program Implications

V. Challenges and Opportunities


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I. What Do We Want To Achieve?

The Philippine Statistical System (PSS) to GENERATEhighquality official statistics, at lower levels ofdisaggregation forBETTER TARGETED/FOCUSEDprograms

Policy- and Decision-makers to USEhigh quality officialstatistics forEVIDENCE-BASEDpolicy-making

BetterDEVELOPMENToutcomes: The MDGs in 2015 &Beyond



II. Efforts of the Philippine Statistical System in

the Generation of Small Area Estimates


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II. Efforts of the Philippine Statistical System in theGeneration of Small Area Estimates

Demand for statistics has been increasingexponentially

More statistics and indicator systems to address newand emerging concerns, such as the following:

Good governance and anti-corruption Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Child poverty and disparities Climate change Measures of well being/progress of

societies, Information Society

Hunger index Child/gender-related development indexes Among others.



II. Efforts of the Philippine Statistical System in theGeneration of Small Area Estimates

To address these demands and to keep pace with ourcompetitors in the Third Millennium, there is a strongneed to rethink the relevance of traditional statisticsand statisticians to be able to address the informationneeds of emerging concerns of society!

Official statisticians need to be relevant to allstakeholders statistics must be useful to society!


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Small areas

Not just geographically(i.e., provincial, congressional districtlevel, city, municipal)

But also sectoral(i.e., children, women, seniorcitizens, farmers, fisherfolks, etc.)

II. Efforts of the Philippine Statistical System on theGeneration of Small Area Estimates



1. Economic statistics, frameworks and indicator systems

Satellite accounts(tourism, health, education, womens contribution tothe economy)

Provincial product accounts (for two pilot areas)


2. Social statistics, frameworks and indicator systems

Provincial level Human/Gender-related/ChildDevelopment IndexStatistics on middle-income classHunger index


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3. Multi-sectoral statistics, frameworks and indicatorsystems

Subnationalmonitoring of the Philippine MillenniumDevelopment Goals (MDGs) indicatorsGovernance index and other governance indicatorsMeasures of wellbeing/progress of societiesStatistical indicators on Philippine Development(StatDev Philippines)






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1. Official poverty statistics for the basic sectors

NSCB Resolution No. 11, Series of 2007 provides for theofficial methodology for the estimation of povertystatistics for the basic sectors.

The NSCB computes official poverty statistics for 9 of the14 disadvantaged sectors of the Philippine Society:

1. Women;2. Youth;3. Children;4. Seniorcitizens;5. Individualsresiding inurbanareas;6. Migrantandformalsectorworkers;

7. Self-employed and unpaid familyworkers;

8. Farmers;and9. Fishermen.

Statistics available for 2003, 2006, and 2009.






Variable Data source

1. Income Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES)was used for classifying households as pooror non-poor

2. Sectoralcharacteristic ofthe population

Labor Force Survey (LFS)was used to assign

household members into sectors

3. Totalpopulation

Estimated total population of the sectorbased on the FIES and LFS.

However, for years when the conduct of theCPH and FIES coincide, data from the CPH willbe used (e.g., 2000) to estimate the totalpopulation for four sectors, namely, women,youth, children, and senior citizen.Otherwise, data from LFS will be used.


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Fishermen, farmers, and children comprise the poorestthree sectors in 2009 with poverty incidences of41.4%,36.7%,and 35.1%,respectively.

41.4

36.735.1

25.121.8

16.7 15.812.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Fishermen Farmers Children Women Youth Migrant andFormal Sector

Senior Citizens Individualsresiding in

urban areas

Poverty Inci dence by Basic Sector: 2003, 2006, and 2009

2003

2006

2009





Children, women, and individuals residing in urban areasaccounted for the largest number of poor population at12.4,11.2,and5.7million,respectively in2009.

Magnitude of poor population for all sectors increasedbetween the period 2006 and 2009 except for farmers andfishermensectors,whichhada decrease.

12,400,000

11,200,000

5,709,170 5,367,308

3,118,701

1,685,1481,181,121

346,345

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

Children Women Urban Youth Migrant andFormalSector

Farmers SeniorCitizens

Fishermen

Magnitu de of Poor Among the Basic Secto rs: 2003, 2006, and 2009

2003

2006

2009



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2. City and municipal level poverty statistics

Before 2003 2003 to 2005 2005 to Present

National National National

Regional Regional Regional

Provincial Provincial

City and muni cipal

Identification of the poorest 44provinces for the

implementation of the KALAHI-CIDSS of the DSWD

Reference for theimplementation of the nationalHousehold Targeting System forPoverty Reduction (NHTS-PR)

Poverty statistics released by the NSCB:



The NSCB, with funding assistance from the World Bankimplemented three projects on small area estimation(SAE) to generate poverty incidences at thecity/municipal levels.

NSCB-WB Project Reference year ofcity/municipal level

poverty estimates

Year Released

1. Poverty Mapping in thePhilippines

2000 2005

2. IntercensalUpdating of SmallArea Poverty Estimates

2003 2008

3. Generation of the 2006and 2009Small Area Estimate of Poverty

2009 2012

2006 To bereleased inJanuary 2013




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The Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) Methodology wasmodified to generate intercensal City and Municipal level

Poverty Statistics

2007 Census ofPopulation and Housing

2009 Family Income andExpenditure Survey

2009 Labor Force Survey

poverty estimates for 1,622 cities and municipalities of the countryfor 2009 were released in July 2012 by the NSCB.

2009 City andMunicipal LevelPoverty Statisticsbased on SAE






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Siayan in Zamboanga del Norte remains to be the poorest municipality in 2009were 80 of 100 individuals are poor compared to the national count of 26 to 27out of 100 individuals!

POOREST MUNICIPALITIES: 2009

Region Province CityPoverty

Incidence

Rank1/

2009 2003

overall

among

municipalities

(n=1494)

overall

among

municipalities

(n=1473)

Region IX Zamboanga del Norte Siayan 79.9 1 1 1 1

CAR Abra Bucloc 77.2 2 2 161 160

Region IX Zamboanga del Norte Baliguian 75.3 3 3 72 72

Region XI Davao del SurJose Abad

Santos (Trinidad)72.3 4 4 8 8

Region XI Davao del Sur Sarangani 72.1 5 5 19 19

Region IX Zamboanga del Norte Godod 71.1 6 6 9 9

Region IX Zamboanga del Norte Gutalac 70.4 7 7 48 48ARMM Maguind anao Pandag2/ 70.1 8 8

Region X L anao del Norte Tagoloan 69.4 9 9 24 24

Region IX Zamboanga Sibugay Mabuhay 68.9 10 10 27 27

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board, with funding support from the World Bank and the AusAID.




Gingoog City in Misamis Oriental where 49 out of 100 individuals were poor, thepoorest city in 2009, and which was the 7th poorest in 2003!

POOREST CITIES: 2009



Incidence

Rank1/

2009 2003

overall

among

cities

(n=149)

overall

among

cities

(n=149)

Region X Misamis Oriental Gingoog City 48.7 290 1 487 7Caraga Agusan del Sur Bayugan 48.4 297 2 310 5

Region VI Negros Occidental Sipalay City 45.9 381 3 596 9

Region VII Negros Oriental Guihulngan 45.0 414 4 295 4

Region X Misamis Occidental Tangub City 43.1 470 5 255 3

Region VII Negros Oriental Bayawan City 42.6 488 6 231 2

Region VI Negros Occidental Kabankalan City 40.9 551 7 615 10

Region V Albay Ligao City 40.5 567 8 1504 97

Caraga Surigao del Norte Surigao City 40.1 581 9 811 21

Region IX Zamboanga del Norte Dapitan City 40.0 582 10 806 20

Region VIII Samar (Western) Calbayog City 38.7 639 12 108 1



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Poorest Municipalities/Cities, by region: 2009


Region Province Municipality/City Poverty

Incidence

Standard

Error

Rank in the

Region

(2003 SAE)

NCR 1st district Port Area 11.87 6.83 1

CAR Abr a Bucloc 77.18 10.05 9

Region I Ilocos Sur Sugpon 35.4 7.4 3

Region II Cagayan Amulung 27.85 2.1 6

Region III Nueva Ecija Talugtug 36.03 2.99 3

Region IV-A Quezon San Francisco (Aurora) 41.37 3.28 1

Region IV-B Oriental Mindoro Bulalacao 51.48 6.34 2

Region V Camarines Sur Garchitorena 58.97 3.2 17

Region VI Aklan Madalag 63.34 4.18 1

Region VII Bohol Pilar 67.08 3.86 29

Region VIII Northern Samar Silvino Lobos 64.78 3.83 29

Region IX Zamboanga del Norte Siayan 79.86 4.53 1

Region X Lanao del Norte Tagoloan 69.38 5.76 3

Region XI Davao del Sur Jose Abad Santos (Trinidad) 72.32 4.06 1

Region XII Sultan Kudarat Palimbang 63.68 3.95 6

ARMM Maguin danao Pandag 3/ 70.10 8.6

Caraga Agusan del Sur La Paz 66.71 3.94 2




LEAST POOR MUNICIPALITIES AND CITIES

Some notes:

-Least poor areas are those with the lowest povertyincidences.

-There are still poor population in these areas ... they are

just classified as least poor relative to thenumber/proportion of poor in other municipalities/cities.



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San Pedro, Lagunais the least poor municipality in 2009. It is also the least poor in2003!

LEAST POOR MUNICIPALITIES: 2009



Incidence

Rank1/

2009 2003

overall

among

municipalities

(n=1494)

overall

among

municipalities

(n=1473)

Region IV-A Laguna San Pedro 1.4 1639 1494 1621 1473

Region IV-A Rizal Cainta 1.4 1638 1493 1618 1471

Region IV-A Laguna Los Baos 1.6 1634 1492 1603 1465

Region IV-A Laguna Bian 1.7 1631 1490 1597 1463

Region IV-A Laguna Cabuyao 1.7 1631 1490 1600 1464

Region IV-A Rizal San Mateo 2.2 1622 1489 1612 1469

Region IV-A Rizal Morong 2.2 1619 1488 1608 1467

Region IV-A Laguna Santa Cruz 2.3 1618 1487 1547 1439Region IV-A Cavite Imus 2.3 1616 1486 1616 1470

Region IV-A Rizal Angono 2.4 1614 1485 1620 1472




Binondo, Manila retains its position as the least poor city/district in 2009 whereonly one out of 100 individuals is poor.

LEAST POOR CITIES: 2009



Incidence

Rank1/

2009 2003

overallamong cities

(n=149)overall

among cities

(n=149)

NCR 1st district Binondo 1.0 1643 149 1622 149

NCR 1st district Sampaloc 1.3 1642 148 1615 146

NCR 4th district Makati City 1.4 1641 147 1617 147

NCR 1st district San Miguel 1.4 1640 146 1580 123

NCR 2nd district San Juan 1.5 1637 145 1619 148

NCR 1st district Ermita 1.5 1635 143 1611 143

Region IV-A Laguna Santa Rosa City 1.5 1635 143 1614 145

NCR 1st district Santa Cruz 1.7 1633 142 1599 136

NCR 4th district Pasay City 1.7 1630 141 1591 132

NCR 1st district Malate 1.8 1629 140 1587 128



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Region Province Municipality/CityPoverty

Incidence

Standard

Error

Rank in the

Region(2003 SAE)

NCR 1st district Binondo 1.03 0.7 1

CAR Benguet Baguio City 2.43 0.76 1

Region I Ilocos Norte Laoag City 9.91 0.81 18

Region II Batanes Basco 5.14 1.89 2

Region III Bulacan Marilao 3.37 1.25 3

Region IV-A Laguna San Pedro 1.41 0.58 1

Region IV-B Palawan Puerto Princesa City 15.48 2.2 4

Region V Camarines Norte Daet 20.97 2.08 24

Region VI Iloilo Iloilo City 7.57 1.01 2

Region VII Negros Oriental Dumaguete City 7.42 1.38 5

Region VIII Leyte Tacloban City 20.45 1.46 1

Region IX Zamboanga del Sur Zamboanga City 19.87 2.03 2

Region X Misamis Oriental Cagayan De Oro City 22.75 2.24 1

Region XI Davao del Sur Davao City 13.24 1.25 1

Region XII Sultan Kudarat Tacurong City 18.47 2.52 4

ARMM Lanao d el Sur Marantao 19.56 4.03 18

Caraga Surigao del Sur Cantilan 25.71 2.8 9

Least Poor Municipalities/Cities, by region: 2009




Nationally, the municipality with the highest reduction in poverty from 2003 to2009 was Linapacan in Palawan where the number of poor individuals per 100was reduced by 58, compared with an increase of less than 1 per 100 individualsat the national level!

Municipalities/Cities with the Highest Poverty reduction from 2003 to 2009

Note:

1/ Rank 1 = Poorest Municipalities/Cities

Test of significant difference between the 2003 and 2009 municipal and citylevel poverty estimates - NATIONALLY

Region Province Municipality2009 2003

Difference in

Poverty

Incidence

Poverty

Incidence

Stan

dard

Error Rank1/Poverty

Incidence

Stan

dard

Error Rank1/2009-2003

Region IV-B Palawan Linapacan 18.1 5.3 1267 76.4 5.2 31 58.3

CAR Kalinga Tanudan 30.7 6.1 902 88.1 4.2 2 57.4

Region I La Union Bagulin 35.1 3.6 779 85.5 9.6 6 50.4

CAR Kalinga Tinglayan 34.1 5.3 804 82.1 5.8 12 48.1

CAR Kalinga Pasil 26.5 4.5 1016 70.0 5.8 76 43.5

Region I La Union Santol 32.7 3.2 843 73.1 9.5 51 40.4

Region IV-B Palawan Busuanga 26.5 4.8 1018 66.7 4.3 104 40.2

Region IV-B Palawan San Vicente 25.6 4.7 1050 64.2 4.3 134 38.6

Region IV-B Palawan Magsaysay 17.6 3.6 1284 54.0 4.5 315 36.3

Region II

Nueva

Vizcaya Ambaguio 15.5 3.9 1364 51.0 9.1 376 35.5


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Test of significant difference between the 2003 and 2009 municipal and citylevel poverty estimates - NATIONALLY


Difference in

Poverty

Incidence

Poverty

Incidence

Stand

ard

Error Rank1/Poverty

Incidence

Stand

ard

Error Rank1/2009-2003

Region VIII

Samar

(Western) Calbayog City 38.7 1.9 639 66.5 1.8 108 27.8

Region VIII

Samar

(Western) Catbalogan City 33.6 2.6 817 51.7 2.8 363 18.1

Region IV-A Quezon Tayabas City 10.5 1.4 1487 27.3 2.9 1128 16.8

Region VI Iloilo Passi City 24.5 2.9 1079 41.1 2.5 684 16.6

Region VII Negros Oriental Bayawan City 42.6 3.3 488 58.3 3.8 231 15.6

Region X

Misamis

Occidental Tangub City 43.1 2.5 470 57.2 3.3 255 14.1

Region IX Isabela City Isabela City 23.0 2.9 1118 37.0 3.4 822 14.0

Reg io n XI Dav ao d el No rte

Island Garden City

of Samal 32.8 2.8 840 44.5 3.6 571 11.7

Region V Masbate Masbate City 28.9 2.3 944 40.1 1.9 712 11.2

CAR Kalinga Tabuk City 17.3 2.8 1298 28.1 3.8 1105 10.8Source: National Statistical Coordination Board, with funding support from the WorldBank and the Au sAID.

Note: 1/ Rank 1 = Poorest municipalities/cities

Among the cities, the highest reduction in poverty from 2003 to 2009 wasachieved in Calbayog City in Samar with a reduction of 28 poor individuals per100!




Test of significant difference between the 2003 and 2009 municipal and citylevel poverty estimates BY REGION


Differen

ce

Poverty

Incidenc

e

Standa

rd

Error

Rank1/Poverty

Incidence

Standar

d ErrorRank1/

2009-

2003

Municipalities

NCR2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/ 2/

CAR Kalinga Tanudan 30.7 6.1 902 88.06 4.23 2 -57.41

Region I La Union Bagulin 35.1 3.6 779 85.50 9.61 6 -50.43

Region II

Nueva

VizcayaAmbag uio 15.5 3.9 1364 50.95 9.05 376 -35.45

Region III Bulacan Dona Remedios Trinidad 35.2 5.4 769 51.58 6.36 365 -16.40

Region IV-A Quezon Padre Burgos 17.2 2.4 1305 50.61 5.12 385 -33.42

Region IV-B Palawan Linapacan 18.1 5.3 1267 76.37 5.23 31 -58.27

Region V Masbate Cawayan 47.6 3.2 320 72.46 2.91 55 -24.88

Region VI Iloilo Maasin 22.6 2.7 1136 45.23 3.34 550 -22.67

Region VII

Negros

OrientalSanta Catalina 39.5 3.6 599 61.41 4.39 176 -21.89

Region VIII

Samar

(Western)Santa Rita 41.3 3.2 537 76.49 2.46 30 -35.24

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board, with funding supp ort from the

World Bank and the AusAID.

Note: 1/ Rank 1 = Poores t

municipalities/cities

2/ - No municipality/city with statistically significant po verty reduction

between 2003 and 2009.


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A. Doesitpay to be a City?


If we take all the population living in cities as one group (and thesame for municipalities)

On the average, poverty incidence in cities is lower by 22 and 18percentage points in 2003 and 2009, respectively, compared withthe municipalities.

Poverty Incidence among Individuals (in %) Difference

2003 2009 2003 2009

Cities Municipalities Cities MunicipalitiesCities-

Municipalities

with NCR 12.9 35.0 12.5 30.2 -22.1 -17.7

without NCR 17.6 35.1 17.3 30.2 -17.5 -12.9Sources of data:

2003 and 2009 Small area poverty estimates

2000-based population projections




B. Poverty and CPC Areas Covered by UNICEF: Do the NumbersMatch?

Camarines NorteBasud

CapalongaLabo

Marcedes

Paracale

Vinzons

MasbateAroroy

Milagros

Monreal

Cawayan

Eastern SamarTaft

Northern SamarBobon

MapanasZamboanga del NorteSiayan

Tampilisan

Bacungan

Zamboanga del SurMidsalip

Tukuran

North CotabatoAleosan

Arakan

Pres Roxas

UNICEF initiative on the 2012 Multiple Indicators Survey

21 CPC areas covered by UNICEF


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Poverty and Environment among CPC Areas Covered by UNICEF

CPC Area 2009 2012Poverty

Incidence

among

Population

Rank among

CPC Area

Percentage

using

improved

sources of

drinking

water1/

Rank among

CPC Area

Percentage

using

appropriate

water treatment

method2/

Rank

among

CPC AreaMunicipality Province

Siayan Zamboanga del Norte 79.9 1 46.5 1 22.8 13

Bacun gan Zamb oan ga d el No rt e 66.0 2 70.9 6 16.8 9

Mapanas Northern Samar 58.4 3 97.8 21 28.4 17

Mi dsali p Zamboanga del Sur 52.7 4 68.1 4 10.8 4

Cap alon ga Camar in es No rt e 48.2 5 64.3 2 33.1 19

Arak an Nort h Cotabato 48.0 6 87.1 16 13.1 6

Cawayan Masbate 47.6 7 69.7 5 17.8 10

Aleosan Nort h Cotabato 47.1 8 80.4 13 8.5 2

Bobon Northern Samar 45.9 9 85.3 14 29.5 18

Aro roy Masbat e 45.5 10 79.1 12 19.3 11

Milagros Masbate 45.3 11 68.0 3 28.2 16

T amp il i san Zamb oan ga d el N or te 45.0 12 75.1 8 21.4 12

Monreal Masbate 44.7 13 77.5 9 45.7 21Marc edes Camar in es Norte 43.4 14 89.5 18 9.8 3

Taft Eastern Samar 42.2 15 93.5 20 16.2 8

Vinzons Camarines Norte 42.1 16 90.3 19 15.5 7

Basud Camarines Norte 38.3 17 78.1 10 26.9 15

Tukuran Zamboanga del Sur 36.5 18 86.0 15 10.8 5

Labo Camarines Norte 36.5 19 87.3 17 26.7 14

Paracal e Camarin es Norte 35.6 20 74.3 7 34.6 20

Pres Ro xas No rt h Co tab at o 35.3 21 78.7 11 7.5 1

Siayan, the poorest municipality in 2009,has the lowest percentage of improved

sources of drinking water among CPC areas covered by the UNICEF in 2012!

Source: 2009 City and M unicipa lity Poverty Estimates, NSCB



Poverty and Environment among CPC Areas Covered by UNICEF

CPC Area 2009 2012

Poverty

Incidence

among

Population

Rank among

CPC Area

Percentage

storing

drinking

water in

container

with cover

Rank among

CPC Area

Percentage of

population

using

improved

sanitation

facilities3/

Rank

among

CPC AreaMunicipality Province

Siayan Zamboanga del Norte 79.9 1 96.4 3 60.0 5

Bacungan Zamboanga del Norte 66.0 2 93.6 7 73.2 11

Mapanas Northern Samar 58.4 3 92.1 11 68.5 6Midsalip Zamboanga del Sur 52.7 4 91.7 12 72.0 10

Capalonga Camarines Norte 48.2 5 96.4 2 70.2 8

Arakan North Cotabato 48.0 6 87.6 18 85.7 19

Cawayan Masbate 47.6 7 92.1 10 30.4 1

Aleosan North Cotabato 47.1 8 95.2 5 81.4 17

Bobon Northern Samar 45.9 9 90.5 14 71.9 9

Aroroy Masbate 45.5 10 86.7 19 59.4 4

Milagros Masbate 45.3 11 94.9 6 48.5 3

Tam pilisan Zam boanga del Norte 45.0 12 93.2 8 80.7 16

Monreal Masbate 44.7 13 97.6 1 39.2 2

Marcedes Camarines Norte 43.4 14 88.4 16 80.4 15

Taft Eastern Samar 42.2 15 89.7 15 78.9 14

Vinzons Camarines Norte 42.1 16 77.6 21 69.6 7

Basud Camarines Norte 38.3 17 92.3 9 94.4 21

Tukuran Zamboanga del Sur 36.5 18 91.7 13 73.6 12

Labo Camarines Norte 36.5 19 88.3 17 86.6 20

Paracale Camarines Norte 35.6 20 85.9 20 77.6 13

Pres Roxas North Cotabato 35.3 21 95.9 4 83.7 18

InSiayan, only about 6 of 10 individuals used improved sanitation facilities in 2012 posting 5th lowest among CPC areas!

Source: 2009 City and M unicipa lity Poverty Estimates, NSCB


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Poverty and Nutrition among CPC Areas Covered by UNICEF

CPC Area 2009 2012Poverty

Incidence

among

Population

Rank among

CPC Area

Percent who

receive

foods from

4 or more

food groups

(minimum

dietary

diversity)

Rank among

CPC Area

Percent who

were given

multiple

micronutrient

powders

Rank

among

CPC Area

Municipality Prov ince

Siayan Zamboanga del Norte 79.9 1.0 31.8 2 - 2

Bacungan Zamboanga del Norte 66.0 2.0 47.8 10 1.4 11

Mapanas Northern Samar 58.4 3.0 39.1 6 4.1 17

Midsalip Zamboanga del Sur 52.7 4.0 34.4 4 4.7 18

Capalonga Camarines Norte 48.2 5.0 50.8 12 - 7

Arakan North Cotabato 48.0 6.0 35.9 5 1.1 9Cawayan Masbate 47.6 7.0 58.4 19 2.0 13

Aleosan North Cotabato 47.1 8.0 32.4 3 - 3

Bobon Northern Samar 45.9 9.0 42.3 7 - 4Aroroy Masbate 45.5 10.0 54.8 16 - 8

Milagros Masbate 45.3 11.0 53.9 15 2.0 12

Tampilisan Zamboanga del Norte 45.0 12.0 50.5 11 2.9 16Monreal Masbate 44.7 13.0 51.9 13 7.0 20

Marcedes Camarines Norte 43.4 14.0 44.5 9 - 6

Taft Eastern Samar 42.2 15.0 25.5 1 - 1Vinzons Camarines Norte 42.1 16.0 57.6 18 2.1 14

Basud Camarines Norte 38.3 17.0 60.8 20 6.2 19Tukuran Zamboanga del Sur 36.5 18.0 52.4 14 2.6 15

Labo Camarines Norte 36.5 19.0 62.4 21 7.2 21

Paracale Camarines Norte 35.6 20.0 55.4 17 1.2 10Pres Roxas North Cotabato 35.3 21.0 43.8 8 - 5

InSiayan, only 3 of 10 children received foods from 4 or more food groups registering second lowest! None were given multiple micronutrient powders in 2012!



Siayan is the least performing municipality among CPC areas in 2012 in terms ofproportion of population aged 12-24 years, who completed elementary - with only4 of 10 males and 5 of 10 females completing elementary!

Source: 2009 City and M unicipality Poverty Estimates, NSCB

2012 Multiple Indicato rs Cluster Survey, NSO

Poverty and Education among CPC Areas Covered by UNICEF

CPC Area 2009 2012

Poverty

Incidenceamong

Population

Rank among

CPC AreasProportion of

children age 12-

24 years who

completed

elementary

education

Rank among

CPC AreasProportion of

children age 12-

24 years who

completed

elementary

education

Rank among

CPC Areas

Municipality Province Male Female

Siayan Zamboanga del Norte 79.9 1 40.5 1 52.4 1Bacungan Zamboanga del Norte 66.0 2 47.3 3 65.3 3Mapanas Northern Samar 58.4 3 58.7 7 68.4 4

Midsalip Zamboanga del Sur 52.7 4 43.9 2 57.8 2Capalonga Camarines Norte 48.2 5 69.5 15 73.6 8

Arakan North Cotabato 48.0 6 56.7 5 74.0 9Cawayan Masbate 47.6 7 54.9 4 69.0 5

Aleosan North Cotabato 47.1 8 69.3 13 76.0 13Bobon Northern Samar 45.9 9 61.5 10 78.0 15

Aroroy Masbate 45.5 10 61.4 9 74.7 12Milagros Masbate 45.3 11 57.2 6 72.7 7Tampilisan Zamboanga del Norte 45.0 12 69.4 14 74.4 10Monreal Masbate 44.7 13 59.0 8 70.6 6Marcedes Camarines Norte 43.4 14 79.8 21 84.7 19

Taft Eastern Samar 42.2 15 71.4 16 77.6 14Vinzons Camarines Norte 42.1 16 78.9 20 89.5 21Basud Camarines Norte 38.3 17 78.7 19 85.5 20Tukuran Zamboanga del Sur 36.5 18 65.3 11 78.7 16Labo Camarines Norte 36.5 19 76.5 17 84.3 17Paracale Camarines Norte 35.6 20 76.9 18 84.4 18Pres Roxas North Cotabato 35.3 21 65.4 12 74.6 11


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Further, of the 21 municipalities covered by UNICEF, Siayan ranked poorly on basicliteracy rate of children 6-11 years old!

Source: 2009 City and M unicipality Poverty Estimates, NSCB

2012 Multiple Indicato rs Cluster Survey, NSO

Poverty and Education among CPC Areas Covered by UNICEF

CPC Area 2009 2012

Poverty

Incidenceamong

Population

Rank among

CPC Areas

Basic literacy

rate of children

6-11 years old

Rank among

CPC Areas

Basic literacy

rate of children

6-11 years old

Rank among

CPC Areas

Municipality Province Male Female

Siayan Zamboanga del Norte 79.9 1 76.8 2 77.8 1Bacungan Zamboanga del Norte 66.0 2 73.8 1 78.0 2Mapanas Northern Samar 58.4 3 91.7 9 93.9 7Midsalip Zamboanga del Sur 52.7 4 88.1 4 86.7 3Capalonga Camarines Norte 48.2 5 97.4 21 99.0 21

Arakan North Cotabato 48.0 6 88.7 5 91.8 5Cawayan Masbate 47.6 7 93.6 12 96.5 17

Aleosan North Cotabato 47.1 8 90.9 6 92.8 6Bobon Northern Samar 45.9 9 95.1 18 94.7 11

Aroroy Masbate 45.5 10 92.7 10 96.4 15Milagros Masbate 45.3 11 96.1 19 94.9 13Tampilisan Zamboanga del Norte 45.0 12 91.1 7 94.7 10Monreal Masbate 44.7 13 95.1 17 94.7 12

Marcedes Camarines Norte 43.4 14 95.1 16 94.4 8Taft Eastern Samar 42.2 15 86.9 3 91.3 4Vinzons Camarines Norte 42.1 16 94.6 13 97.1 18Basud Camarines Norte 38.3 17 96.8 20 97.5 19Tukuran Zamboanga del Sur 36.5 18 93.1 11 95.9 14Labo Camarines Norte 36.5 19 94.8 14 98.7 20Paracale Camarines Norte 35.6 20 95.0 15 96.4 16Pres Roxas North Cotabato 35.3 21 91.6 8 94.5 9



C. Poverty and Local Government Finance

Region Province City Poverty Incidence

Total

Current

Operating

Income

Rank

Total Current

Operating

Expenditures

Rank

Poorest Municipalities

Region IX Zamboanga del NorteSiayan1/ 79.9

CAR Abra Bucloc 77.2 21,772,221 1,307 22,059,944 1,397

Region IX Zamboanga del NorteBaliguian 75.3 60,828,339 615 52,848,907 696

Region XI Davao del Sur

Jose Abad

Santos (Trinidad) 72.3 111,893,729 176 77,925,293 377

Region XI Davao del Sur Sarangani 72.1 39,150,684 1,055 30,579,155 1,220

Region IX Zamboanga del NorteGodod 71.1 42,196,826 1,126 33,802,131 1,136

Region IX Zamboanga del NorteGutalac 70.4 72,809,807 571 38,085,415 1,018

ARMM Maguindanao Pandag2/ 70.1

Region X Lanao del Norte Tagoloan 69.4 26,798,730 1,401 106,071,795 236

Region IX Zamboanga Sibugay Mabuhay 68.9 48,075,760 989 51,007,860 731

4 of the 10 poorest municipalities in 2009 also have poor rankings (i.e., rankedmore than 1000 of the 1494 municipalities )in terms of total operating income andtotal operating expenditures

Sources: National Statistical Coordination Board

Department of FinanceNotes: 1/ No da ta


20/2820




Correspondingly, least poor municipalities in 2009 have better rankings (i.e.,

ranked less than 500 of the 1494 municipalities )in terms of total operatingincome and total operating expenditures


Incidence

Total

Current

Operating

Income

Rank

Total Current

Operating

Expenditures

Rank

Least Poor Municipalities

Region IV-A Laguna San Pedro 1.4 430,947,232 8 296,096,973 92

Region IV-A Rizal Cainta1/ 1.4

Region IV-A Laguna Los Baos 1.6 157,651,820 54 102,353,546 248

Region IV-A Laguna Bian 1.7 692,348,149 3 434,169,025 55

Region IV-A Laguna Cabuyao 1.7 685,692,624 4 548,521,248 38

Region IV-A Rizal San Mateo 2.2 302,600,068 12 210,211,050 126

Region IV-A Rizal Morong 2.2 75,422,733 415 69,199,453 471

Region IV-A Laguna Santa Cruz 2.3 179,414,770 38 153,060,914 160

Region IV-A Cavite Imus 2.3 523,863,403 5 435,403,296 54

Region IV-A Rizal Ango no 2.4 141,725,731 81 112,018,821 220


Department of FinanceNotes: 1/ No d ata





Education,

Culture &

Sports/

Manpower

Development

Rank

Health,

Nutrition &

Population

Control

Rank

Poorest Municipalities

Region IX Zamboanga del NorteSiayan1/ 79.9CAR Abra Bucloc2/ 77.2 2,347,762 1,042

Region IX Zamboanga del NorteBaliguian 75.3 59,440 1,042 2,911,197 924

Region XI Davao del Sur

Jose Abad

Santos (Trinidad) 72.3 129,100 952 6,148,063 316

Region XI Davao del Sur Sarangani 72.1 74,395 1,027 2,272,085 1,058

Region IX Zamboanga del NorteGodod 71.1 520,624 583 2,829,891 940

Region IX Zamboanga del NorteGutalac 70.4 578,159 551 670,464 1,232

ARMM Maguindanao Pandag3/ 70.1

Region X Lanao del Norte Tagoloan2/ 69.4 198,752 1,246

Region IX Zamboanga Sibugay Mabuhay 68.9 64,415 1,036 2,957,355 911

3 and 4 of the 10 poorest municipalities in 2009 also have poor rankings (i.e.,ranked more than 1000 of the 1494 municipalities )in terms of governmentexpenditures on education and health, respectively.

Sources: Nationa l Statistical Coordination BoardDepa rtment of Finance

Notes: 1/ No data2/ Nio data on Expneditureson Education, Culture & Sports/Manpowe r Development


21/2821




Correspondingly, least poor municipalities in 2009 have better rankings (i.e.,

ranked less than 300 of the 1494 municipalities )in terms of governmentexpenditures on education and health.


Incidence

Education,

Culture &

Sports/

Manpower

Developmen

t

Rank

Health, Nutrit ion

& Population

Control

Rank

Least Poor Municipalities

Region IV-A Laguna San Pedro 1.4 24,538,564 11 24,866,248 10

Region IV-A Rizal Cainta1/ 1.4

Region IV-A Laguna Los Baos 1.6 7,109,679 45 7,335,036 225

Region IV-A Laguna Bian 1.7 22,221,369 13 12,285,142 59

Region IV-A Laguna Cabuyao 1.7 51,131,625 1 65,863,030 1

Region IV-A Rizal San Mateo 2.2 42,308,019 3 18,538,796 21

Region IV-A Rizal Morong 2.2 2,905,201 137 8,584,509 161

Region IV-A Laguna Santa Cruz 2.3 13,847,389 25 11,911,183 63

Region IV-A Cavite Imus 2.3 27,535,621 8 31,622,179 4

Region IV-A Rizal Ango no 2.4 6,135,624 62 6,614,904 277


Department of FinanceNotes: 1/ No da ta





Education,

Culture &

Sports/

Manpower

Development

Rank

Health,

Nutrition &

Population

Control

Rank

Poorest Cities

Region X Misamis Oriental Gingoog City 48.7 9,047,265 84 38,199,150 43

Caraga Agusan del Sur Bayugan 48.4 1,632,414 121 19,378,411 81

Region VI Negros Occidental Sipalay City 45.9 1,530,813 124 21,594,149 72

Region VII Negros Oriental Guihulngan 1/ 45.0

Region X Misamis Occidental Tangub City 43.1 18,534,384 54 6,955,128 127

Region VII Negros Oriental Bayawan City 42.6 559,642 126 19,270,717 82

Region VI Negros Occidental Kabankalan City 40.9 10,931,554 77 40,287,192 41

Region V Albay Ligao City 40.5 9,031,916 85 13,987,408 105

Caraga Surigao del Norte Surigao City 40.1 18,390,190 55 30,783,050 53

Region IX Zamboanga del Norte Dapitan City 40.0 3,700,256 106 16,935,877 95

7 and 5 of the 10 poorest cities in 2009 also have poor rankings (i.e., rankedmore than 75 of the 149 cities )in terms of government expenditures oneducation and health, respectively.

Sources: Nationa l Statistical Coordination BoardDepa rtment of Finance

Notes: 1/ No data2/ Nio data on Expneditureson Education, Culture & Sports/Manpowe r Development


22/2822




Correspondingly, most of the least poor cities have the highest rankings in terms

of government expenditures on education and health


Incidence

Education,

Culture & Sports/

Manpower

Development

Rank

Health, Nutrit ion

& Population

Control

Rank

Least Poor Cities

NCR 1st district Binondo1/ 1.0 1,415,360,488 1 1,720,633,459 1

NCR 1st district Sampaloc1/ 1.3 1,415,360,488 1 1,720,633,459 1

NCR 4th district Makati City 1.4 1,182,164,017 2 1,049,820,733 2

NCR 1st district San Miguel1/ 1.4 1,415,360,488 1 1,720,633,459 1

NCR 2nd district San Juan 1.5 97,781,388 22 35,947,447 48

NCR 1st district Ermita1/ 1.5 1,415,360,488 1 1,720,633,459 1

Region IV-A Laguna Santa Rosa City 1.5 48,804,684 33 170,448,833 8

NCR 1st district Santa Cruz1/ 1.7 1,415,360,488 1 1,720,633,459 1

NCR 4th district Pasay City 1.7 203,507,096 12 227,438,523 6

NCR 1st district Malate1/ 1.8 1,415,360,488 1 1,720,633,459 1


Department of FinanceNotes: 1/ Included in the C ity of M anila



Poverty Incidence for Employed and Unemployed Population: 2006 and 2009

Poverty incidence has been consistently higher for the employedpopulation than for the unemployed population.

Employment is not sufficient, quality of employment matters!

Source: 2009 Official Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors


D. Poverty and Unemployment/Underemployment: Need for qualityemployment

Employed Unemployed

2006 2009 2006 2009

Philippines 22.1 22.4 15.8 17.3


23/2823



5,7986,058

5,7986,0585,6204

5,7986,0589,8357

5,7986,05811,2408

5,7986,0588,4306

5,7986,0584,2153

5,7986,0582,8102

5,7986,0581,4051

7,0255

Agri cul tur e (PhP 223/day )Non-agriculture (PhP 233/day)

Required monthly

income (in PhP)

Family size Monthly Income of a Minimum Wage Earner in 2009

REGIONAL (FOR Caraga):A minimum wage earner* in Caraga can support a family of at most four

members in 2009, to be classif ied as non-p oor! However, average family size in Caraga is 5. Minimumwage should have been at least PhP270/day in 2009 in order to support a family of 5 members. For 2011,

it should be at least PhP290/day. This means that the minimum wage as of2010 of Php233 for

agriculture and Php243 for non-agriculture should be increased by Php57 and Php47 or 24.5% and19.3%, respectively, to support a family of five members.

Minimum wage earner in Caraga employed in the agricul ture and non-agriculture sector.

Rate is effectiv e 20 June 2008, per Wage order No. 9 (Source of d ata:

http://www.nwpc.dole.gov.ph/pages/statistics/stat_wage%20rates1989-present_non-agri.html )

For this exercise, number of working days consid ered in a month is 26.

Gross family income was used.

E. Poverty and Minimum Wage-Setting: Need for more poverty-sensitive minimum wage




5,4605,460

5,4605,4605,4444

5,4605,4609,5277

5,4605,46010,8888

5,4605,4608,1666

5,4605,4604,0833

5,4605,4602,7222

5,4605,4601,3611

6,8055

Agri cul tur e (PhP 210/day )Non-agriculture (PhP 210/day)

Required monthly

income (in PhP)


REGIONAL (FOR ARMM): A minimum wage earner* in ARMM can support a family of at most four

members in 2009, to be classif ied as non -poor! However, average family size in ARMM is 5. Minimum

wage should have been at least PhP262/day in 2009 in order to support a family of 5 members. For

2011, it should be at least PhP286/day. This means that the minimum wage as of 2010 of Php222 for

agriculture and non-agriculture should b e increased b y Php64.00 or 28.8% to suppo rt a family of five

members.

Minimum wage earner in ARMM employed in the agriculture and non-agriculture sector.

Rate is effectiv e 29 June 2008, per Wage ord er No. 11 (Source o f data:


For this exercise, number of working d ays considered in a month is 26.



E. Poverty and Minimum Wage-Setting: Need for more poverty-sensitive minimum wage


24/2824



5,5906,240

5,5906,2405,0524

5,5906,2408,8417

5,5906,24010,1048

5,5906,2407,5786

5,5906,2403,7893

5,5906,2402,5262

5,5906,2401,2631

6,3155

Agr icul tur e (PhP 215/day)Non-agriculture (PhP 240/day)

Required monthly

incom e (in PhP)


REGIONAL (FOR Regio n IX):A minimum wage earner* in Region IX can support a family of at m ost

four members i n 2009, to be classified as non-p oor! However, average family size in Region IX is 5.Minimum wage should have been at least PhP243/day in 2009 in order to support a family of 5

members. For 2011, it sho uld be at least PhP259/day. This means that the minimum wage as of2010 of

Php230 for agriculture and PHP255 for non-agriculture should be increased by Php29 and Php4or12.6% and 1.6%, respectively, to support a family of five members .

Minimum wage earner in Region IX employed in the non-agricultur e sector.

Rate is effectiv e 3 July 2008, per Wage order No. 15 (Source of d ata:


For this exercise, number of working d ays considered in a month is 26.


IV. Some Policy/Program ImplicationsE. Poverty and Minimum Wage-Setting: Need for more poverty-sensitive minimum wage



IV. Some Policy /Program Implication

The increase ineconomic

growthbetween 2006

and 2009 inRegion IVB is

well distributedacross all

income decileclass. Poverty

incidencedecreased by

6.7% between2006 and 2009.

Inc/Dec Inc/Dec

2006 2009 06-09 2006 2009 06-09

PH IL IPPIN ES 1,276, 155,599 1,432,115,499 12.2 21. 1 20.9 (0.2)

NCR 414,437,924 465,688,965 12.4 3.4 2.6 (0.8)

CAR 28,396,925 31,547,310 11.1 18.6 17.1 (1.5)

Region I 38,172,734 40,737,475 6.7 20.4 17.8 (2.6)Region II 25,523,961 28,157,464 10.3 15.5 14.5 (1.1)

Region III 107,039,140 115,947,511 8.3 12.0 12.0 0.1

Region IV-A 156,688,378 165,572,379 5.7 9.4 10.3 0.9

Region IV-B 34,292,906 39,105,919 14.0 34.3 27.6 (6.7)Region V 35,394,007 42,877,886 21.1 36.1 36.0 (0.1)

Region VI 91,865,954 109,252,408 18.9 22.1 23.8 1.7

Region VII 90,297,893 102,052,820 13.0 33.5 30.2 (3.2)

Region VIII 28,093,607 30,482,024 8.5 31.1 33.2 2.1

Region IX 32,676,015 38,196,714 16.9 34.2 36.6 2.4

Region X 62,729,335 73,206,779 16.7 32.7 32.8 0.2

Region XI 57,877,947 67,366,644 16.4 26.2 25.6 (0.6)

Region XII 44,740,935 50,556,259 13.0 27.1 28.1 1.0Caraga 11,290,530 12,409,350 9.9 36.9 39.8 3.0

ARMM 16,637,408 18,957,590 13.9 36.5 38.1 1.7

Region

Poverty

Incidence

Among Families

(%)

Gross Regional Domestic

Product (in thousand

pesos) constant

%change

06-09

Mean per capita income

All income groups 21,631 29,727 37.4

First decile class 6,049 8,488 40.3

Second decile class 8,755 12,342 41.0

Third deci le class 10,536 14,969 42.1Fourth Decile class 12,665 17,588 38.9

Fi fth Deci le class 15,192 20,823 37.1

Sixth Deci le class 18,255 24,924 36.5

Seventh Decile class 22,172 30,38637.0

Eighth Decile class 27,861 39,161 40.6

Ninth Decile class 39,545 55,363 40.0

Tenth Decile class 89,490 123,781 38.3

Region IVB

2006 2009

Statistics/

Income decile class

%change

06-09

Mean per capita income

All income groups 24,281 32,975 35.8

First decile class 6,939 8,327 20.0

Second decile class 9,652 12,093 25.3

Thi rd deci le class 11,996 14,730 22.8

Fourth Decile class 14,415 17,739 23.1

Fi fth Deci le class 17,016 21,287 25.1

Sixth Deci le class 20,336 25,750 26.6

Seventh Decile class 24,617 31,600 28.4

Eighth Decile class 31,337 40,723 30.0

Ninth Decile class 44,275 60,265 36.1

Tenth Decile class 96,152 146,630 52.5

Statistics/

Income decile class

Region XII

2006 2009

In contrast, inRegion XII, the

increase ineconomic

growth isconcentrated

in the upperincome decile

classes.Poverty

incidence alsoincreased by

1.0% between

2006 and 2009.

F. Poverty and Economic Growth: Need for better income distribution,inclusive growth


25/2825




G. Poverty and Population Management

All Food Poor Poor Non-Poor

Philippines 4.74 6.48 5.99 4.38

Average Family Size

Poor families have bigger Family Size!

Policy implication on population management.



H. Poverty and the Basic Sectors

Poorest s ectors in 2003, 2006 and 2009:

Fisherm en (41.4%), farmers (36.7%) andchi ldren (35.1%)!

8 of the 9 basic sectors in posted increases in

poverty incid ence between th e period 2006 and

2009!

Largest number of poor population in 2003,

2006 and 2009, by sector:

Children (12.4 million), women (11.2 milli on),

and individuals r esiding in urban areas (5.7

million)!

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board


26/2826






SO MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES TO THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICALSYSTEM on the generation of small area estimates for evidence-basedpolicy-making and better targeted/focused programs:

Regular generation of small area estimates of poverty

Geographical (i.e., at the city, municipal, congressional districtlevels)

Sectoral (PWDs, indigenous peoples)

Regular generation of good governance indicators at the local level

Convergence/Maximized utilization of statistical information availableat the local level (e.g., National Household Targeting System for PovertyReduction)

Well-being/Happiness of the poor;

AND THE LIST GOES ON AND ON BUT(next slide)



27/2827




1. For the Philippine Statistical Systemto continuously undertakeimprovements in its work

Relevance/Emerging concerns (e.g., happiness/genuineprogress of society, governance, etc.)

Timeliness

Frequency Levels of disaggregation

To strengthen its M and E efforts

M and E is included in the latest Philippine StatisticalDevelopment Program 2011-2017The greater challenge is the implementation part and theprovision of resources to implement this.

Manpower and financial resourcesCapacity building on M and E

TO AID THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM IN RESPONDING TO

THESE MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES:



2. For the local governmentsto serve as key players instrengthening data support at smaller areas

The statistical development of the LGU is affected by thelevel of statistical appreciation of the head of the LGU.

o Appreciation meetings/forums to focused/targetgroups (e.g. League of Municipalities, etc.)

There is a need for statistical capacity building, especially ofthe line agencies and the LGUs

o Many LGUsdo not have a statistical unit or statisticalpersonnel;

o Low compensation scheme for statistical personnel;o Non-statisticians doing statistical work.

TO AID THE PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM IN RESPONDING TO

THESE MANY DEMANDS/CHALLENGES:



28/28



3. ForPolicy- and Decision-Makers

To recognize and understand the importance ofstatistics and statistical systems asBASICINFRASTRUCTUREtowards development

MustUSEstatistics towardsEVIDENCE-BASEDdecision-making

Must address theUNDERSPENDING FOR STATISTICSand have the political will to INVEST in statistics,INVEST in statisticians, INVEST in statistical offices

Reference: Virola, Romulo A . M easuring Well-Being/Progress of Soc ieties: Initiatives & Perspec tives from ThePhilippines. Round Table 1: M easuring Well-Being Initiatives in Individual Countries. 4th OECD World Forum onStatistics, Knowledge, and Policy. India. Oc tober 2012.




Maraming Salamat po!

URL:http://www.nscb.gov.phe-mail: [email protected]

1-nscb small area estimates for evidence-based policy-making and better targeted focused programs

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