1 october 26, 2010 presentation before the california senate committee on energy, utilities, and...
TRANSCRIPT
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October 26, 2010
Presentation before the California Senate Committee on Energy, Utilities, and Communications,
Hearing on “Nuclear Power and California’s Clean Energy Future”
Robert J. Budnitz
Earth Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
University of CaliforniaBerkeley CA 94720
October 26, 2010
Presentation before the California Senate Committee on Energy, Utilities, and Communications,
Hearing on “Nuclear Power and California’s Clean Energy Future”
Robert J. Budnitz
Earth Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
University of CaliforniaBerkeley CA 94720
What has changed since 1976 inUS Nuclear Power Plant Safety?
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104 U.S. nuclear power plants
3
Significant Events at U.S. Nuclear Plants: Annual Industry Average, Fiscal Year 1988-2006
0.77
0.90
0.450.40
0.25 0.260.21
0.17
0.08 0.100.04 0.03 0.04
0.07 0.05 0.070.04 0.05
0.01
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: NRC Information Digest, 1988 is the earliest year data is available. Updated: 11/07
Significant Events are those events that the NRC staff identifies for the Performance Indicator Program as meeting one or more of the following criteria:
A Yellow or Red Reactor Oversight Process (ROP) finding or performance indicator An event with a Conditional Core Damage Probability (CCDP) or increase in core damage probability (ΔCDP) of 1x10-5 or higher An Abnormal Occurrence as defined by Management Directive 8.1, “Abnormal Occurrence Reporting Procedure” An event rated two or higher on the International Nuclear Event Scale
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Budnitz note: in 2006, the figure was 0.32 per plant
in 1985 it was 4.2in 1980 it was 7.3
U.S. Nuclear Refueling Outage Days Average
104 106
8895 92
66 66
81
51
40 4437
3340 42 38 39 40
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: 1990-98 EUCG, 1999-2007 Energy Velocity / Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Updated: 2/08
91.8*
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007
U.S. Nuclear Industry Capacity Factors1971 - 2007
* Preliminary
Source: Global Energy Decisions / Energy Information Administration
Updated: 4/08
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Coal - 2.47Gas - 6.78Nuclear - 1.76Petroleum - 10.26
2007
U.S. Electricity Production Costs 1995-2007, In 2007 cents per kilowatt-hour
Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel Costs
Source: Global Energy DecisionsUpdated: 5/08
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Deep Geological Repositories• 1976: Scientists asserted that deep
repositories would be safe, but nobody knew for sure. [Lots of judgment, but no demonstrated solution.]
• 2010: We now know, for sure, that the Yucca Mt. repository in Nevada, if it went forward, would be able to dispose of the spent nuclear fuel well within NRC limits for 1,000,000 years.