1 pertemuan 01 makro ekonomi dan industri matakuliah: f0392/simulasi perdagangan di bursa efek...
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Pertemuan 01Makro Ekonomi dan Industri
Matakuliah : F0392/Simulasi Perdagangan di Bursa Efek
Tahun : 2005
Versi : 1/3
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Learning Outcomes
Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa
akan mampu :
• Mencari informasi tentang makro ekonomi dan sektor industri
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Outline Materi
• Inflasi dan Suku Bunga
• Surplus dan Defisit APBN
• Neraca Perdagangan
• Nilai Tukar Uang
• Siklus Bisnis dan Industri
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Technical & Fundamental Analysis
• Technical analysis – the belief that security prices follow recurrent, predictable patterns
• Fundamental analysis – the belief that every security eventually sells for its intrinsic value
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Fundamental Analysis
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Fundamental Analysis
Objective : Value Shares• Fundamental Analysis: the process of using
fundamental information about a company to arrive at an estimate of the share price
• Fundamental would influence opinion of value
• Value present value of future cash flows
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Fundamental Analysis
• Issue: Must forecast EPS, DPS and growth
• Must forecast economy ‘better’ than others, then translate into investment advice
• Economic forecast => Asset Allocation Recession: Bonds Stocks Expansion: Bonds Stocks
Stocks => Which Industry? => Which Co’s
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Fundamental Analysis
• Top Down Analysis: * Global Economy * Macroeconomy * Industry Analysis * Equity Valuation Models
• Economic forecast => Industry => Co’s
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Global Economy
• Historically -- highly variable growth
• Why important?
Export Co’s - growth opportunities
Competition - imports
Exchange rates
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Effect of Exchange Rates
• Exchange rate - price of one currency in terms of another
• Rising $ ==> takes more of foreign currency to buy a $ (price of $’s )
* Hurts exports - US goods more expensive
* Makes imports more competitive * Helps foreign investment in US * Hurts US investment in foreign
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Effect of Exchange Rates
• Falling $ ==> takes more $ to buy foreign currency (price of $’s )
* Helps exports - US goods cheaper * Makes imports more expensive * Hurts foreign investment in US * Helps US investment in foreign countries
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Macroeconomy
• GDP– Auto– Steel– Manufacturing in general
• Inflation– Regulated co’s; utilities– Input prices more flexible than output– Oil companies w/reserves
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Macroeconomy
• Exchange Rates– Export sensitive: want weak dollar– Import sensitive (inputs): want strong dollar
• Interest rates– Housing– Consumer durables– Business investment– Financial services companies– Utilities
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Macroeconomy
• Consumer sentiment– Autos– Consumer durables
• Fiscal Policy– Government Spending– Taxes
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Monetary Policy
• Money supply & prices
• Open market operations: Fed buys/sells bonds => two impacts
Market Clearing (short-run) Buys ==> reserves ; bond prices ; rates Sells ==> reserves ; bond prices ; rates
Inflation Expectations (long-run)
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Leading Economic Indicators
• Tend to lead rest of economy:
Money Supply Stock Market Weekly hours Changes in raw materials prices ∆’s in consumer expectations
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Industry Analysis
• Issue: How sensitive is industry to business cycle?
• First: Define Industry– SIC codes (recently revised)– Moodys, S&P, Value Line forecasts
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Sensitivity to Business Cycle
• Sensitivity of Sales Sensitive: Autos, Steel, Luxuries
Non-Sensitive: Necessities; cons. Staples
• Operating Leverage - firms with high OL are more sensitive (more fixed costs => cannot reduce costs with sales)
• Financial Leverage - use of debt financing
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Industry Analysis
• Industry Life Cycles or Phases– Start up (product development; rapid growth)– Consolidation (software; stable growth)– Maturity (utilities; slowing growth)– Decline (domestic tobacco)
• High growers => profit opport. => competition Ease of entry ==> competition
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Summary
Economy
Sales
Operating/FinancialLeverage
Earnings (Cash Flow)
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Tugas
Kerjakan dan kumpulkan pada Pert 02
• Tugas 01-1
• Tugas 01-2
• Tugas 01-3