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Presented for the ROK Team, by David Von Hippel, based on work by Dr. Kim Hoseok

Prepared for the East Asia Science and Security Project Meeting, September 23-24, 2010

Tsinghua University, Beijing, PRC

Overview of/Update on the LEAP Modeling

Effort in the Republic of Korea

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OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION:

The ROK LEAP Model—Current Status and Ongoing Work Data Sources Model Structure Existing Paths Preliminary Results Work ongoing and to be done

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The ROK LEAP Model: Key Data Sources

Overall: KEEI detailed energy balance tables Residential—Driven by number of households

Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Survey on Electricity Consumption Characteristics of Home Appliances (2006)

Activities: National Demographic Survey (NSO) Industrial—Driven by industrial GDP, share

Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)

Activities: Economic Statistics System Commercial/public—Driven by building area

Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)

Activities: Sectoral floor space information from 2007 Wholesale & Retail Survey and 2007 Service Industry Survey

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The ROK LEAP Model: Key Data Sources

Transport—Driven by number of vehicles and travel distance

Energy: 2008 Energy Consumption Survey (MOCIE 2008), Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI)

Activities: Fuel Economy & car sales data from KEMCO, Travel distance from Road Safety Corporation , Yearbook of Construction & Transportation Statistics

Transformation Module Data: Yearbook of Energy Statistics (MOCIE & KEEI) Korea Electric Power Corporation Korea Gas Corporation Korea Coal Corporation Korea District Heating Corporation

Socio-Economic Indicators Statistics Korea Bank of Korea

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ROK2010

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The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Structure

DEMAND SECTOR

SUB-SECTORS ACTIVITY PARAMETERS

FUELS

Residential HEAT: By dwelling type (Traditional, coal,oil, LPG, town gas, central, district, others)APPLIANCES: 18 electric appliance types

HouseholdsDwelling types Saturation of end uses (%)

electricity, LPG, heat, coal, kerosene, town gas

Industrial Agriculture & FisheryMiningManufacturing: divided into 10 business types Construction

Industrial sector GDP (Korean Won, or KRW)Shares of each sub-sector(%)Energy intensity (E/KRW)Fuel share (%)

coal, gasoline, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, LPG, town gas, heat,electricity, naphtha

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The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Structure

DEMAND SECTOR

SUB-SECTORS ACTIVITY PARAMETERS

FUELS

Commercial & Public

11 business types: Waste management, wholesale and retail, hotel and restaurant, information & communication, real estate, scientific activities, business support, education, health and social work, art and sports, other services

Floorspace (m2)Energy intensity (kcal/m2)Fuel share (%)

electricity, LPG, fuel oil, heat, diesel, kerosene,town gas

Transportation(Domestic only)

Private vehiclesMass Transit & freight

Vehicle population Shares of each vehicle type (%)Energy Intensity (E/vehicle)

gasoline, diesel, LPG, natural gas, electricity, fuel oil

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The ROK LEAP Model: Demand Activities Assumptions

Activity/Parameter 2008 2010 2020 2030

Population (million) 48.6 48.9 49.3 48.6

GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.2 4.75 3.66 2.24

Commercial floor space (million square meters)

385.6 404.7 607.7 807.1

Vehicle Population (million vehicles)

17.0 18.4 26.0 34.7

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The ROK LEAP Model: Transformation Structure

MODULE PROCESS TYPES KEY PARAMETERS FUELS

Electricity Transmission & Distribution Losses (%)

Electricity Generation

Coal steamOil steam LNG steamCombined cycleInternal combustionNuclearHydro

System load factor (%)Process shares (%)Efficiency (%)Base year outputExogenous capacity Merit order (base, intermediate, peak)Fuel share (%)

CoalFuel oilNatural gasDieselNuclearHydro

District Heating

Heat only boiler (HOB) Efficiency (%) Natural gas, fuel oil, town gas

Town Gas Production Efficiency (%) Natural gas, LPG

LNG Gasification Efficiency (%) LNG

Oil Refining Efficiency (%) Crude oil

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THE ROK LEAP MODEL

TRANSFORMATION STRUCTURE Electricity T&D Electricity Generation — 11 Types of power

plants, including Industrial Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

District Heat production Town Gas production LNG Gasification Oil Refining Blast Furnace Gas Production Coke Production

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SCENARIOS

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THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Assumptions

Key Future Assumptions in Energy Demand

Residential Space heating—continued increase in the

share of town gas and district heating, and continued slow decline in intensity per housing unit

Substantial increase in use of air conditioners, some increases in number of televisions, kimchi refrigerators, vacuum cleaners per household

The energy intensity of electric appliance use decreases at 0.5%/yr

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THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Assumptions

Key Future Assumptions in Energy Demand Industrial—Driven by industrial GDP, share

Share of value added by Manufacturing falls slowly

Within Manufacturing, share of “fabricated metal” increases over time, others decrease

Services share of value added increases over time Commercial/public—Driven by building area,

which rises rapidly Fuel shares remain relatively constant; energy

intensity decreases Transport—Number of vehicles nearly

doubles, dominated by private vehicles Most transport energy intensities decline slowly

over time

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THE ROK LEAP MODEL: ScenariosFuture Energy Paths for the Republic of Korea Business-as-Usual (BAU) path

Assumes generally that existing policies and currently evolving economy/energy sector trends continue, similar to Ministry of Knowledge Economy reference case projections

Minimum Nuclear (MIN) path Assumes no additional reactors beyond those currently

under construction or planned with defined construction start dates

Existing reactors are decommissioned after 40 years of life for PWRs, and 30 years of life for CANDU units, but are not replaced

Total nuclear capacity in the ROK falls from peak of ~29 GW in 2019/2020 to 20 GW by 2030

To compensate for decreased nuclear capacity, MIN case includes an increase in coal-fired and LNG combined-cycle plants in ratio of 70%/30%

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THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Scenarios

Future Energy Paths for the Republic of Korea Maximum Nuclear (MAX) path

Assumes the same schedule for decommissioning of existing reactors as in the MIN and BAU,, but assumes that a new 1400 MW PWR unit is placed in service each year from 2016 through 2029 (14 units total), more than replacing the 4 smaller units decommissioned during that time

Retirement schedule for all LWR units is assumed to be extended to 50 years

Total nuclear generation capacity by 2030 is 42.8 GW The additional nuclear capacity above the BAU case

included the MAX case is assumed to displace coal-fired and LNG-combined cycle plants in the ratio 70%/30%

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2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Antracite Coal 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7

Bituminous Coal 19.3 23.1 28.8 28.8 29.9 31.8

Oil Steam 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 2.9 3.1

LNG Steam 1.5 0.9 0 0 0 0

Internal Combustion 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Combined Cycle 13.8 15.9 19.3 19.3 20 21.3

1.8 3.1 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.2

Nuclear 17.7 18.7 25.9 31.5 34.2 36.3

Hydro 5.5 5.5 6.4 6.4 6.6 7

Renewable 1.7 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.6

Total 67.3 73.9 90.1 96.4 100.9 107.1

Generation Capacity Projections (GW)

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Final Energy Demand by Sector: BAU

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Final Energy Demand by Fuel: BAU

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Primary Energy Requirements by Fuel: BAU

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Electricity Outputs by Fuel

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Total GHG Emissions by Scenario

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THE ROK LEAP MODEL: Next Steps

Final check of Path inputs and results for consistency with sources

Revise older “National Alternative” path that emphasizes aggressive application of energy efficiency and renewable energy measures

Revise older “Regional Alternative” path that includes National Alternative attributes, and also models the inclusion of the ROK in regional energy cooperation initiatives

Detail attributes of the Maximum Nuclear and Minimum Nuclear paths as needed for modeling of regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation

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THANK THANK YOU!YOU!