1 Symposium on the 50 th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Dr. Jack Hayes Director, Office of Science and Technology NOAA National Weather Service June 16, 2004 Symposium on the 50 th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Dr. Jack Hayes Director, Office of Science and Technology NOAA National Weather Service June 16, 2004 A Vision for Environmental Services as NWP Enters the Next 50 Years 2 OverviewOverview Progress: 1950s Today Environmental Services for the 21 st Century: Driven by a New Generation of Scientific Models Challenges and Strategies Progress: 1950s Today Environmental Services for the 21 st Century: Driven by a New Generation of Scientific Models Challenges and Strategies 3 Numerical Weather Prediction 1954-Today Sustained improvement -- Day per decade for over 40 years Key to increasingly accurate and longer-lead time weather forecasts and warnings Sustained improvement -- Day per decade for over 40 years Key to increasingly accurate and longer-lead time weather forecasts and warnings 4 Some Examples Improved Operational Warnings and Forecasts Hurricane Track Forecast Errors in Atlantic basin: Hrs 5 Some Examples Improved Operational Warnings and Forecasts Day 1 Day 2 QPF 1 Threat Score: Days 1 and 2 6 Past Success Generates New Challenges Nations Needs Growing Migration to coasts and environmentally sensitive areas Awareness of health and economic impacts Ecosystem sensitivities S&T Advancing Observing systems Satellites Radar Modeling Physics Ensembles Nations Needs Growing Migration to coasts and environmentally sensitive areas Awareness of health and economic impacts Ecosystem sensitivities S&T Advancing Observing systems Satellites Radar Modeling Physics Ensembles 7 Vision Earth System Models Addressing Wide Range of Interdisciplinary Societal Needs Coupled air, water, land models Linked to key societal focus areas disaster mitigation, energy distribution, health, ecosystems Providing increasing specificity and accuracy At longer ranges Quantifying uncertainty In digital form Coupled air, water, land models Linked to key societal focus areas disaster mitigation, energy distribution, health, ecosystems Providing increasing specificity and accuracy At longer ranges Quantifying uncertainty In digital form Optimizing pro-active decision making nationally, regionally, and locally 8 Environmental Services for 21 st Century Examples Tornadoes Warning lead times increase from 13 min to 1 hr for neighborhoods and communities Virtually eliminating loss of life due to lack of warning Severe Thunderstorms Warning lead times increase from ~18 min to 2 hrs Improving air traffic routing--virtually eliminating severe weatherrelated air traffic delays Winter Storms Warnings days in advance Improving commerce and transportation sectors Tornadoes Warning lead times increase from 13 min to 1 hr for neighborhoods and communities Virtually eliminating loss of life due to lack of warning Severe Thunderstorms Warning lead times increase from ~18 min to 2 hrs Improving air traffic routing--virtually eliminating severe weatherrelated air traffic delays Winter Storms Warnings days in advance Improving commerce and transportation sectors 9 Environmental Services for 21 st Century Examples Air Quality Warnings about poor air quality 4-6 days in advance for metropolitan areas Power companies shift to alternate fuels Alerts individuals at risk and health care professionals Climate Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation indicating weekly departures from normal issued months in advance Communities and weather-sensitive industries reduce risk Air Quality Warnings about poor air quality 4-6 days in advance for metropolitan areas Power companies shift to alternate fuels Alerts individuals at risk and health care professionals Climate Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation indicating weekly departures from normal issued months in advance Communities and weather-sensitive industries reduce risk 10 Environmental Services for 21 st Century Examples Water Resource Information Provide high-resolution water quantity, quality, and soil moisture forecasts Emergency and resource managers mitigate losses for conditions ranging from droughts to floods Ecosystem Impact Information Provide forecasts of weather, water, climate impacts on ecosystems and scenarios of ecosystem response to management decisions Management decisions reflect relationships among humans, nonhuman species, and the environments in which they live. Source: Report by U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy Water Resource Information Provide high-resolution water quantity, quality, and soil moisture forecasts Emergency and resource managers mitigate losses for conditions ranging from droughts to floods Ecosystem Impact Information Provide forecasts of weather, water, climate impacts on ecosystems and scenarios of ecosystem response to management decisions Management decisions reflect relationships among humans, nonhuman species, and the environments in which they live. Source: Report by U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy 11 Achieving the Vision S&T Challenges Achieving this level of service excellence will require breakthroughs in S&T: Data Assimilation (DA) and Modeling Observations Dissemination Achieving this level of service excellence will require breakthroughs in S&T: Data Assimilation (DA) and Modeling Observations Dissemination 12 Challenges: DA and Modeling Developing advanced and high resolution DA techniques Mesoscale, microscale, better exploitation of satellite data Improving models and linkages among weather, water, climate, and other environmental processes Advancing probabilistic environmental information characterizing uncertainty Improving model post-processing and decision-assistance techniques Developing advanced and high resolution DA techniques Mesoscale, microscale, better exploitation of satellite data Improving models and linkages among weather, water, climate, and other environmental processes Advancing probabilistic environmental information characterizing uncertainty Improving model post-processing and decision-assistance techniques Integrated Environmental Forecasts and Information 13 Challenges: Observations Improving temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution at all scales Obtaining observations of new environmental elements Sustaining data quality and timeliness Integrating multi-purpose observing systems and networks within an extensible enterprise architecture Improving temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution at all scales Obtaining observations of new environmental elements Sustaining data quality and timeliness Integrating multi-purpose observing systems and networks within an extensible enterprise architecture Observations when and where neededintegrated, adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality-assured 14 Challenges: Dissemination Keeping pace with need for more data and information Expanding content and coverage Implementing enterprise information delivery and access systems Providing data mining and decision assistance tools Keeping pace with need for more data and information Expanding content and coverage Implementing enterprise information delivery and access systems Providing data mining and decision assistance tools Reach each person in the Nation 15 Meeting the Challenge Strategies Adopt broader view of Environmental Prediction Weather, water, and climate forecasts linked to societal impacts Implement integrated Earth Observation System -- GEOSS Develop common Earth system models, fully exploiting ensemble and other information enhancement techniques Adopt broader view of Environmental Prediction Weather, water, and climate forecasts linked to societal impacts Implement integrated Earth Observation System -- GEOSS Develop common Earth system models, fully exploiting ensemble and other information enhancement techniques 16 Meeting the Challenge Strategies Develop and sustain reliable enterprise IT architecture Maximizes responsiveness -- promotes scientific interoperability Accelerate transition from research to operations Better plans, processes, and architectures -- ESMF Improve partnerships, nationally and internationally Increase collaborations end-to-end -- WRF Develop and sustain reliable enterprise IT architecture Maximizes responsiveness -- promotes scientific interoperability Accelerate transition from research to operations Better plans, processes, and architectures -- ESMF Improve partnerships, nationally and internationally Increase collaborations end-to-end -- WRF 17 SummarySummary Advances in NWP over last 50 years have enabled great progress in operational weather forecasting Advances in numerical earth-system prediction over next 50 years have potential to transform way society adapts to its changing environment Advances in NWP over last 50 years have enabled great progress in operational weather forecasting Advances in numerical earth-system prediction over next 50 years have potential to transform way society adapts to its changing environment