1 the economic impact of new infrastructure michael wegener spiekermann & wegener convegno...
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The Economic Impact of New Infrastructure
Michael WegenerSpiekermann & Wegener
Convegno "Il corridoio del Brennero nel quadrodelle infrastrutture dell'Italia settentrionale"Trento, 16 September 2005
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Accessibility
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Rail travel timesfrom Trento in1910
© K. Spiekermann
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Rail travel timesfrom Trento in1970
© K. Spiekermann
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Rail travel timesfrom Trento in1997
© K. Spiekermann
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Rail travel timesfrom Trento in2020
© K. Spiekermann
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Accessibility andRegional Development
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Accessibility and development
Norway
DenmarkFinlandSwedenIreland
East Germany
Eastern Europe
Central Europe
Mezzogiorno
Northern Italy
MilanTurinRome
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Transport Infrastructure
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Road network in the AlpenCorS area
11 Rail network in the AlpenCorS area
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Airports in the AlenCorS area
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TEN/TINA priority projects in the AlpenCorS area
14Road projects: Valdastico/Pedemontana and Valsugana
15 Rail projects: Southern bypass and Valsugana
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The SASI Model
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SASI Model
GDP
AccessibilityProductionfunction
Employment
Migrationfunction
PopulationIncome
Labourforce
Transportpolicy
Unemploy-ment
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Scenarios
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Scenarios
No Scenario description
000 Reference scenario
Brenner tunnel scenario
AS1 Brenner tunnel
Local scenarios
AS2 AS1 + Southern rail bypassAS3 AS1 + Valdastico/Pedemontana motorwaysAS4 AS1 + Valsugana road and rail corridorAS5 AS1 + AS2 + AS3 + AS4
European scenario
AS6 All road TEN/TINA projects in Europe
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Scenario 000Reference Scenario
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Reference Scenario
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Reference Scenario
Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
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Reference Scenario
Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
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Reference Scenario
Accessibility road/rail (travel, million)Scenario 0002021
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Scenario AS1Effects of the Brenner Tunnel:
Accessibility
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Effects of the Brenner tunnel
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Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
Effects of the Brenner tunnel
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Scenario AS1Effects of the Brenner Tunnel:
GDP per Capita
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Effects of the Brenner tunnel
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Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
Effects of the Brenner tunnel
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Scenario AS6All TEN/TINA Projects:
GDP per Capita
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All TEN/TINA projects
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All TEN/TINA projects
Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
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All local projects
Accessibility road/rail (travel, million)Scenario AS5 v. 0002021
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All TEN/TINA projects
Accessibility road/rail/air (travel, million)Scenario AS6 v. 0002021
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Scenario Comparison
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Brenner tunnel (AS1): accessibility road/rail
Piem
onte
Valle
d'A
osta
Ligu
riaLo
mba
rdia
Venet
o
Friuli V
enez
ia
Giu
liaBol
zano
Trento
Alpen
CorS
Effe
ct (
%)
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Brenner tunnel (AS1): GDP per capita (Euro)E
ffect
(%
)
Piem
onte
Valle
d'A
osta
Ligu
riaLo
mba
rdia
Venet
o
Friuli V
enez
ia
Giu
liaBol
zano
Trento
Alpen
CorS
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Comparison of Scenarios: Trento
Brenn
er
tunn
el
South
ern
rail b
ypas
sVal
dast
ico/
Pedem
onta
naVal
suga
na
rail/r
oad
All lo
cal p
roje
cts
All TEN/T
INA p
roje
cts
Effe
ct (
%)
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Comparison of Scenarios: Trento
Brenn
er
tunn
el
South
ern
rail b
ypas
sVal
dast
ico/
Pedem
onta
naVal
suga
na
rail/r
oad
All lo
cal p
roje
cts
All TEN/T
INA p
roje
cts
Effe
ct (
%)
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What does this mean for Trento?
The Trento region can expect to gain from the Brenner tunnel 175 million Euro or 300 Euro per inhabitant per year (in Euro of 2005) in 2021.
If also the other local infrastructure projects are implemented, it can expect 230 million Euro or 400 Euro per inhabitant per year in 2021.
These figures do not include the benefits of improvements of the logistics infrastructure.
However, these figures relate to 2021. In the years until 2021 the benefits are smaller as they gradually build up following the implementation of the infrastructure.
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Conclusions
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Conclusions (1): accessibility
Good access to suppliers and markets is one of the preconditions for the production of goods and services.
Transport infrastructure is therefore one of the primary instruments of governments to promote regional competitiveness.
However, transport infrastructure can also increase the disparities between regions, generates more traffic and leads to higher energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
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Conclusions (2): macro trends
The regional effects of transport projects and transport policies are small compared with those of socio-economic and technicalmacro trends, such as
- globalisation, - growing competition between regions,- ageing of the population,- increasing labour force participation,- growing labour productivity.
Large increases in accessibility translate intoonly small changes in economic activity.
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Conclusions (3): the Brenner tunnel
The implementation of the Brenner tunnel will be a key factor for linking northern and southern Europe.
The accessibility effects of the tunnel will reach from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. The effects for freight will be even more far reaching than those for travel.
The economic effects of the Brenner tunnel will be smaller but also far-reaching.
The regions south of the tunnel exit, Bozen/ Bolzano and Trento, will benefit most.
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Conclusions (4): local projects
The local transport infrastructure projects south of the Brenner tunnel will spread the tunnel effects to adjacent regions.
The Valdastico and Pedemontana motor-way extensions will be most successful in promoting other regions.
If all three local projects, the southern rail bypass, the Valdastico and Pedemontana motorways and the Valsugana road and rail corridor, are combined, the effect of spread-ing the tunnel effects to other Italian regions are most pronounced.
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Conclusions (5): European projects
If besides the local projects also European transport infrastructure projects of the TEN and TINA programmes outside the Alpine Space are taken into account, the effects on accessibility and regional economic development are much stronger.
Although the TEN and TINA programmes have been recently re-oriented towards improving the transport systems of the new EU member states, the regions south of the Alps remain on the winner side.
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More information:
Modelling Regional Development in AlpenCorS. Final Report. AlpenCorSDeliverable 5. Dortmund, 2005.
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