1 us lodging industry overview and state and market overview the share center supporting...
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1
US Lodging Industry Overview and State and Market Overview
The SHARE CenterSupporting Hotel-related Academic Research and Education
2
Agenda• Total US Update
• US Drill Down
• Booking Channel Update
• Sample State Overview - Tennessee
• Sample Market Overview - Nashville
• Projections
3
Total US Review
4
Europe 2009 2010 2011 2012 -6.0% 5.4% 3.0% 0.8%
Middle East & Africa 2009 2010 2011 2012-12.3% 0.3% -7.0% 9.0%
Asia Pacific 2009 2010 2011 2012-5.7% 9.3% 0.1% 2.5%
South America 2009 2010 2011 2012 -7.0% 9.4% 2.3% -1.8
North America 2009 2010 2011 2012-8.8% 5.5% 4.2% 3.0%
Occupancy rebounded from 2009, still growing in most regions
Central America 2009 2010 2011 2012-16.7% 6.6% 1.2% -0.5%
Caribbean 2009 2010 2011 2012-4.6% -2.1 4.4% 3.8%
Global Occupancy Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinentsAnnual 2009, 2010 & 2011 & April YTD 2012
5
Europe $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-16.9% -2.1% 9.3% -2.8%
Middle East & Africa $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-3.1% 2.1% 5.3% -0.8%
Asia Pacific $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-14.7% 9.1% 9.3% 4.4%
South America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-5.3% 8.6% 16.4% 6.7%
North America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -8.9% 0.6% 3.7% 3.9%
ADR growth improving - some areas of the world slower than others
Central America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -6.3% -0.8% -0.6% 1.4%
Caribbean $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-12.9% 4.3% 3.2% 4.8%
Global ADR Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinentsAnnual 2009, 2010 & 2011 & April YTD 2012
6
Europe $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-21.8% 3.0% 12.5% -2.0%
Middle East & Africa $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-14.9% 2.6% -2.1% 8.0%
Asia Pacific $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-19.8% 18.5% 9.4% 6.9%
South America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-12.0% 18.8% 19.1% 4.8%
North America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012 -16.9% 6.0% 8.1% 7.1%
RevPAR strong in most areas
Central America $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-21.9% 5.4% 0.5% 0.9%
Caribbean $ 2009 2010 2011 2012-16.8% 2.1% 7.6% 8.8%
Global RevPAR Percent Change - Continents & American subcontinentsAnnual 2009, 2010, 2011, & April YTD 2012
7
2011: The World Recovered
Number of Markets with Positive REVPAR Percent Changes:
Americas: 194 of 212
Europe: 84 of 98
AsiaPac: 38 of 47
Middle East / Africa 19 of 33
*RevPAR in local currencySource: STR Global
8
Most Major Global Markets Did Well
*2011 % Change, ADR & RevPAR in local currencySource: STR Global
Market OCC ADR RevPAR
Beijing 8.2 5.8 14.6Berlin 0.9 -2.0 -1.1Dubai 7.0 3.4 10.7
Hong Kong 2.4 23.1 26.0London -0.1 8.5 8.4
Mexico City 7.9 2.9 10.9Moscow 2.7 5.4 8.3
Sao Paulo 2.9 17.7 21.1Sydney -0.1 5.2 5.1Tokyo -8.5 -6.7 -14.7
Toronto -0.6 0.6 0.0
9
Total US - Key StatisticsDecember YTD 2011
Value % Change• Hotels 52,300 • Supply 1.8 B 0.6%• Demand 1.1 B 5.0%• Room Revenue $107.6 B 8.8%• Occupancy 60.1% 4.4%• ADR $101.64 3.7%• RevPAR $61.06 8.2%
All percent changes are positive, record demand numbers and low supply %chg
10
Occupancy ADR RevPAR40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
63
104
66
60
107
64
55
98
5458
98
5660
102
61
20072008200920102011
Total US - Key Performance Indicators Annual 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Occupancy back to 2008 level, ADR ½ way, RevPAR ⅔ way
11
Supply Demand Occ ADR RevPAR-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2.4
-2.5
-4.8
2.9
-2.0
2.9
-6.2-8.7 -8.7
-16.7
1.7
7.35.3
-0.1
5.4
0.5
4.9 4.5 3.7
8.2
2008200920102011
Total US - Key Performance Percent Change Indicators Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Big Demand & Occ turn around; ADR negative in 2010, but positive in 2011
12
198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10Supply Demand
2010 saw strongest Demand increase in history and sharp Supply decrease
Supply:3.0% (Sep 09)0.4% (Apr 12)
Demand:-7.0% (Aug 09) 7.8% (Feb 11) 4.1% (Apr 11)
-0.9%
- 4.6%
Total US - Supply and Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average, January 1989 to April 2012
13
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150Supply
Total US - Actual Monthly Room Supply Millions of Room Nights, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 1998 to Dec 2011
Supply has levelled off, for the first time since 2004
14
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201270
73
75
78
80
83
85
88
90
Demand
Total US - Actual Monthly Room DemandMillions of Room Nights, Seasonally Adjusted, Jan 1998 to Dec 2011
Demand at record high level for most of 2011!
15
Total US - Closed HotelsAnnual 2004 through 2011
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
200
400
600
800
1000
725
841
686
387
291 288
149
373
Number of Hotels
Change between peak Openings in 2005 and 2010 = -82%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
20
40
60
80
100
50.2
65.2
52.6
31.7
23.6 24.6
14.3
31
Number of Rooms (in thousands)
65,242 rooms in 2005 to 14,265 rooms in 2010
Huge decrease in closed hotels leading up to 2010, small resurge in 2011
16
Total US - Opened HotelsAnnual 2004 through 2011
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
633
746
840
1,045
1,3971,348
672
376
Number of Hotels
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
60.9
74.183.1
101
153.6146.3
73.6
38.7
Number of Rooms (in thousands)
153,623 rooms in 2008 38,667 rooms in 2010
Continued decreasein new development in 2011
Significant drop in number of new opens in 2010 and 2011
17
Total US – Monthly Supply Percent ChangeJanuary 2005 to December 2011
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
“Close up” of monthly Supply percent changes for last couple of years
18
Total US – Monthly Demand Percent ChangeJanuary 2005 to December 2011
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
“Close up” of monthly Demand % changes, positive for most of 2010 & 11
19
1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 2011-10
-5
0
5
10Occupancy ADR
Occupancy leveling, ADR returning, very different recovery than 2002!
-3.4%
-6.7%
Occupancy:-9.7% (Sep 09) 6.3% (Apr 11) 4.5% (Dec 11)
ADR:-8.9% (Jan 10) 3.7% (Dec 11)
-4.5%
0.0%
Total US – Occupancy and ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average, Jan 1989 to Dec 2011
20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201250
60
70
80
90
100
110Occupancy (%)ADR ($)
Peak $107.71 Sep 2008
ADR: $97.00 (Apr 10, off $11)$103.01 (Apr 12, regain $6) 43 months so far
Occupancy:54.5% (Jan 10, off 9 pts)60.6% (Apr 12)
Peak 63.5%Jun 2006
41 months to regain $4
Total US - Occupancy & ADR Actual ValuesTwelve Month Moving Average – January 1997 to April 2012
Major challenge for the industry – making up the lost ADR!
21
ADR Discounting at Twice the Speed of ADR Recovery
2008 2009 2010 2011$95
$100
$105
$110
Total US Actual ADR, 12 Month Moving Average, 2008 - 2011
Apr ‘10$97
Sept ‘08$108
Dec ‘11$102
+4.6%
-10%
19 Months19 Months
22
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
Nominal ADR
2000 / 2007 Grown by CPI
2000 ADR Grown By CPI
Total US Actual ADRs and Inflation Adjusted ADR, 2000 – 2013F2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011 – 2013 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators
$85
$101
$104
$85
$107 $109
$107
$117
Inflation Adjusted ADRs Currently Well Out Of Reach
2007 ADR Grown By CPI
23
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Total US - Monthly Occupancy Percent ChangeJanuary 2005 to December 2011
“Close-up” of monthly Occupancy % Change – strongly positive for 2010 & 11
24
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
10
Total US - Monthly ADR Percent Change January 2005 to December 2011
“Close-up” of ADR % Change – positive (gradually) since middle of 2010
25
19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201240
45
50
55
60
65
70
$54.86Nov 2000
$55.38Feb 2005
Total US - Actual Monthly RevPAR Seasonally Adjusted, January 1998 to December 2011
RevPAR recovery looks better than ADR recovery
26
Total US - Monthly RevPAR Percent ChangeJanuary 2005 to December 2011
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-22
-18
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
10
14
“Close-up” of RevPAR % Change – positive since middle of 2010
27
Total US – Post-Recession Demand Percent Change12 Month Moving Average - From Start of Recession, by Month
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6% Start: 7/90 (to 3/91) Start: 3/01 (to 11/01) Start: 12/07 (to today)
Three very different economic cycles
28
Total US – 2011 HOST (Hotel Operating Stats/P&L) Update
29
Total US - Estimated Total Revenue and ProfitabilityAnnual Numbers from 2001 to 2010
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
103.5 102.6 105.3113.7
122.7133.4
139.4 140.6
127.2 127.7
16.2 14.2 12.8 16.722.6 26.6 28.0 25.8
16.0 18.0
37.1 35.7 35.0 36.6 38.8 41.3 41.338.2
34.0 35.3
Revenue Profit GOP%
GO
P %
Tota
l Rev
enue
and
Pro
fit in
Bill
ions
30
US Drill Down (Scales, Locations, Regions, Top Markets,
Group/Transient, Weekday/Weekend)
Scales
31
Changes to STR Scales in 2011
• Luxury – W Hotel, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont, Waldorf, Intercontinental, JW Marriott
• Upper Upscale – Sheraton, Hyatt, Hilton, Marriott, Westin, Renaissance
• Upscale – Hilton Garden Inn, Courtyard, Aloft, Indigo, Radisson, Wyndham
• Upper Midscale - Holiday Inn, Hampton Inn, Fairfield Inn, BW Plus
• Midscale – LaQuinta, Wingate, Sleep Inn, BW, Quality Inn, Ramada
• Economy – Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn, Motel 6, Super 8
Changed to Upper Mid and Midscale from Midscale with and w/o F&B(Also Best Western started converting their hotels to Plus and Premium)
32
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy-10
-5
0
5
10
6
3
6
32 2
9
5
9
43
1
7
2
6
3
1 02 2 2
5
-9
0
2008 2009 2010 2011
Historic Scales – Supply Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
High 2009 & 2010 supply growth in Luxury and Upscale groups;2011 Upper Mid and Midscale numbers affected by BW conversion
33
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0
-1
3
-3-3 -3
1
-3
1
-6-8 -8
14
8
14
8
5 57
56
11
-6
4
2008 2009 2010 2011
Historic Scales – Demand Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011
Largest 2010 Demand recovery at upper end
34
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-5-4 -3
-6 -5 -5
-8 -7 -8-10
-11-9
6 77
55 55
34
53 4
2008 2009 2010 2011
Historic Scales – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
2009 dropped most at lower end, 2010 recovered most at the upper end
35
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
02 1
43
1
-17
-11 -11
-6 -5-8
2
-1-2
-1-2
-3
64 4 3
-1
2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Historic Scales – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Upper end impacted most in 2009, Luxury only positive in 2010
36
2011 Update - Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0.81.8 1.8
5.5
-8.7
0.3
6.04.6
6.0
11.0
-5.5
4.0
Supply Demand
Supply and Demand Percent Change, by Scale, Annual 2011Midscale Supply Change Caused by Best Western Re-classification
37
2011 Update - Early Recovery, Occupancy % Chg > ADR % Chg
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy-2
0
2
4
6
8
5.2
2.8
4.1
5.2
3.5 3.7
5.7
3.6 3.83.3
-0.5
2.2
Occupancy ADR
Occupancy and ADR Percent Change by Scale, Annual 2011
38
2011 Update - Upper End Sells 7 out 10 Rooms Every Night
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy50
55
60
65
70
75
71.770.5 69.6
65.3
58.457.0
69.9 69.3 69.5
61.5
53.5 53.5
2007 2011
Absolute Occupancy by Scale, Annual 2007 & 2011
39
2011 Update - Demand Recovery Strongest At Upper End
Luxury/Upper Up/Upscale UpperMid/Midscale/Economy200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
400000000
450000000
269,429,911
437,379,298
315,185,412
436,320,7552007 2011
Total Room Demand in Millions, by Combined Scales, Annual 2007 & 2011
40
No Surprise Here: Room Revenue Grows At Upper End As Well
Luxury/Upper Up/Upscale UpperMid/Midscale/Economy20000000000
25000000000
30000000000
35000000000
40000000000
45000000000
50000000000
41,793,809,268
32,902,488,635
44,818,925,482
32,270,712,203
2007 2011
Total Room Revenue in Billions $, by Combined Scales, Annual 2007 & 2011
41
ADR Growth Is Strong – But Not Strong Enough (...yet)
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$286
$159
$121
$94$77
$54
$257
$148
$112$94
$73
$50
2007 2011
Absolute ADR $, by Scale, Annual 2007 & 2011
42
Peak Valley $-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300 $308
$213
$167
$133$127
$103$101$85$85
$68$59
$45
LuxUpUpUpUpMidMidEcon
$141 difference
$80
$40
$30$26$18$16
$26 $17$22
Recent ADR Compression by Scale : Threat or Opportunity?US Chain Scales, Actual ADRs, Peak (2008) vs. Valley (2009-10)
2008
-03
2008
-04
2008
-03
2008
-08
2008
-08
2008
-08
2009
-07
2009
-08
2009
-12
2009
-12
2009
-12
2010
-01
Compression especially at top end, differences narrowed, trade-up easier
43
US Drill Down - Locations, Regions, Markets
44
Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Town0
1
2
3
4
5
2
3
2
3
1
23
4
33
1
3
2
2
22
1
11
0 0 0 0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011
Locations – Supply Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Highest 2009 peaks in Suburban and Interstate
45
Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Town-10
-5
0
5
10
-1-3 -3 -3
-5
-2
-4
-7 -7 -6 -6-7
89 8
65 55
64 4 5 4
2008 2009 2010 2011
Locations – Demand Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Urban, Suburban, and Airport big winners in 2010
46
Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Town-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-3
-5 -5 -5 -6-4
-7
-10 -9 -9-7
-9
6 7 7
4 4 435 4 4 5 4
2008 2009 2010 2011
Locations – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Highest 2010 occupancy in Urban, Suburban, and Airport
47
Urban Suburban Airport Interstate Resort Small Town-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
4 3 2
5
2
4
-12
-9-11
-1
-12
-2
2
-2 -2
1
-1
1
53 3 3
5
2
2008 2009 2010 2011
Locations – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Urban and Resort down most in 2009 and up most in 2011
48
US Regions – Occupancy, ADR, & RevPAR Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Occupancy: 4.6 %ADR: 5.5 %
RevPAR: 10.3 %
Occupancy: 4.9 %ADR: 3.3 %
RevPAR: 8.4 %
Occupancy: 2.5 %ADR: 3.8 %
RevPAR: 6.5 %
Occupancy: 5.6 %ADR: 2.8 %
RevPAR: 8.5 %
Occupancy: 5.0 %ADR: 3.2 %
RevPAR: 8.4 %
Occupancy: 3.0 %ADR: 2.7 %
RevPAR: 5.7 %
Occupancy: 4.2 %ADR: 2.7 %
RevPAR: 7.0 %
Occupancy: 3.6 %ADR: 4.4 % RevPAR: 8.1 %
Occupancy: 5.1 %ADR: 3.2 %
RevPAR: 8.6 %
TOTAL USOccupancy: 4.3 %
ADR: 3.7 %RevPAR: 8.2 %
2011 – positive Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR for all regions
49
New Eng-land
Mid At-lantic
South At-lantic
East North
Central
East South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
Mountain Pacific0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
33
2
3
2
6
3
2
0
2 2
0
1 1
4
2
1
0
2
0 0 0 1
2
10
2009 2010 2011
Regions – Supply Percent ChangeAnnual 2009, 2010 and 2011
Largest supply numbers in regions with big cities
50
New Eng-land
Mid At-lantic
South At-lantic
East North
Central
East South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
Mountain Pacific-10
-5
0
5
10
-7-5 -4
-7
-4-6
-9-7 -7
8 8 8 76
5
87
7
5 54
53 3
76
5
2009 2010 2011
Regions – Demand Percent ChangeAnnual 2009, 2010 and 2011
2010 recovery largest in regions with big cities
51
New Eng-land
Mid At-lantic
South At-lantic
East North
Central
East South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
Mountain Pacific-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-8 -7 -7-9
-7 -8
-13
-10-9
86 6
7
54
34
65
4 45
3 3
6 5 5
2009 2010 2011
Regions – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2009, 2010 and 2011
2010 recovery largest in regions with big cities
52
New Eng-land
Mid At-lantic
South At-lantic
East North
Central
East South
Central
West North
Central
West South
Central
Mountain Pacific-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
-7
-13
-7 -7
-4-3
-5
-13
-10
13
-1 0
01
-1 -20
34
3 3 34
3 3
62009 2010 2011
Regions – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2009, 2010, and 2011
Regions on coasts affected the most in 2009, recovered the most
53
Top 25 Markets - Supply Percent Change, Annual 2011
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VASan Francisco/San Mateo, CA
Tampa-St Petersburg, FLDetroit, MIChicago, IL
Atlanta, GAOahu Island, HI
Orlando, FLBoston, MA
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WIAnaheim-Santa Ana, CA
St Louis, MO-ILLos Angeles-Long Beach, CA
San Diego, CAPhiladelphia, PA-NJTotal United States
Phoenix, AZDallas, TX
New Orleans, LASeattle, WA
Miami-Hialeah, FLWashington, DC-MD-VA
Denver, COHouston, TX
Nashville, TNNew York, NY
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
54
Top 25 Markets - Demand Percent Change, Annual 2011
New Or-leans, LA
Washing-ton, DC-MD-VA
Norfolk-Virginia
Beach, VA
Atlanta, GA
St Louis, MO-IL
Oahu Is-land, HI
Boston, MA
Chicago, IL
Phila-delphia, PA-NJ
San Diego, CA
Anaheim-Santa Ana,
CA
San Fran-cisco/San Mateo, CA
Total United States
Phoenix, AZ
Minneapo-lis-St Paul,
MN-WI
Denver, CO
New York, NY
Orlando, FL
Los Ange-les-Long
Beach, CA
Seattle, WA
Miami-Hialeah, FL
Dallas, TX
Tampa-St Peters-burg, FL
Detroit, MI
Houston, TX
Nashville, TN
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
55
Top 25 Markets - Occupancy Percent Change, Annual 2011
New Orleans, LANew York, NY
Washington, DC-MD-VASt Louis, MO-IL
Atlanta, GANorfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
Oahu Island, HIPhiladelphia, PA-NJ
Boston, MASan Diego, CA
Denver, COChicago, IL
Phoenix, AZTotal United States
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CASeattle, WA
San Francisco/San Mateo, CAMinneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI
Orlando, FLLos Angeles-Long Beach, CA
Nashville, TNMiami-Hialeah, FL
Dallas, TXHouston, TX
Tampa-St Petersburg, FLDetroit, MI
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
56
Top 25 Markets - ADR Percent Change, Annual 2011
Atlanta, GA
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA
Washington, DC-MD-VA
Tampa-St Pe-tersburg, FL
Houston, TXDetroit, MI
San Diego, CAPhoenix, AZ
St Louis, MO-ILDenver, COOrlando, FL
Dallas, TXTotal United States
Seattle, WABoston, MAChicago, IL
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN-WI
New Orleans, LANew York, NY
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA
Philadelphia, PA-NJMiami-Hialeah, FL
Nashville, TNOahu Island, HI
San Francisco/San Mateo, CA
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
57
2011 Update for “5/20/All” Markets – Demand Exceeds 2007
BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF Top 25 less BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF
All Other Markets0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
87,824,218
262,108,513
677,554,982
83,515,685
239,381,334
617,341,712
95,966,203
272,860,428
689,632,7902007 2009 2011
Three groups: Five Select Markets, Remaining Top 25 Markets, and All OthersRoom Demand in Millions; Annual 2007, 2009, 2011
58
2011 Update for “5/20/All” Markets - 2007 ADRs Still Elusive
BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF Top 25 less BOS/NYC/Miami/LA/SF
All Other Markets$70
$90
$110
$130
$150
$170
$190$178
$113
$91
$155
$105
$88
$173
$106
$90
2007 2009 2011
Three different Market groups; Actual ADR $; Annual 2007, 2009, & 2011
59
US Drill Down – Group/Transient, Day of Week, and
Weekday/Weekend
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Transient Occupancy breaks records …Total US Monthly Transient Occupancy – January 2007 to December 2011
Group & Transient Data for mainly Upper Tier hotels (Lux, Upper Up, top ⅓ indeps)
61
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
$210
$2202007 2008 2009 2010 2011
But Transient ADR is not Total US Monthly Transient ADR – January 2007 to December 2011
Above 2009 & 2010 levels, but not above 2007 & 2008
62
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Group Occupancy above 2010, but below 2007 levelsTotal US Monthly Group Occupancy – January 2007 to December 2011
Above 2009 & 2010 levels, closing in on 2007 & 2008 levels
63
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Group ADR improving, but below 2007 & 2008 levels Total US Monthly Group ADR – January 2007 to December 2011
Above 2009 & 2010 levels, still below 2007 & 2008
64
Transient ADR Growth (Hopefully) Will Aid Group ADR in 2012?
Transient Group$140
$155
$170
$185
$175
$150
$176
$157
$151$147
$154
$143
$161
$147
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Transient versus Group ADR, Annual 2007 through 2011No surprise Group ADRs tend to follow behind Transient ADRs
65
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat40
50
60
70
46
58
6364
61
6364
42
51
56 5755
6061
45
54
6060
58
6264
47
57
63 63
60
64
67
2008 2009 2010 2011
Total US – Occupancy by Day of WeekAnnual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
2011 Occ above 2008 level on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, 1 off on weekdays
66
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat90
95
100
105
110
115
$105
$109$110 $110
$107
$104
$106
$96
$99$100 $100
$98
$96
$98$96
$99$100 $100
$98$96
$98
$99
$102$104 $103
$101$100
$102
2008 2009 2010 2011
Total US - ADR by Day of Week Annual 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011
Day of Week 2011 vs. 2008 ADR diffs: weekdays - $6-7, weekends - $4
67
Booking Channel Highlights
68
Booking Channel Foundations
Data Nights sold and revenue per propertyper month from Jan 2009 to YTD 2011
Participation 25,500 US & WW chain & independent hotels,All major players
Booking Channels Brand.com, CRS/Voice, GDS, OTA, Property Direct/Other
OTAs Booking.com, Expedia, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Orbitz, Priceline, Travelocity, Travelweb, All others
Business Models Merchant (Expedia), Opaque (Priceline) , Retail (Booking.com)
69
Demand Share by Channel for Total USAnnual 2009 & 2010 (Percent of Total Room Nights)
OTA9.8
Brand .com
16.1
GDS8
CRS/Voice13.8
Property Direct /Other52.3
2009OTA10.7
Brand .com16.4
GDS8.3
CRS /Voice13.2
Property Direct /Other51.4
2010
Small YOY increases in OTA, Brand.com, GDSSmall YOY decreases in CRS/Voice, Prop Direct/Other
70
Revenue Share by Channel for Total USAnnual 2009 vs. 2010 (Percent of Total Room Revenue)
OTA7.3
Brand .com
17.8
GDS10.4
CRS /Voice18
Property Direct /Other46.5
2009 OTA7.7
Brand .com
18.5
GDS10.8
CRS /Voice17.1
Property Direct /Other45.9
2010
Slight variation between Revenue Share and Demand Share percentagesdue to channel profitability and revenue contribution of different scale hotels
71
OTA Room Revenue Share for Total USAnnual 2001 -2011*, OTA Revenue as Percent of Total Revenue
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*0
2
4
6
8
10
1.4
2.9
4.6 4.85.5
6.0 6.1 6.1
7.37.7
8.4OTA Revenue Share
*2011 projected; growth periods: 2001-2003, 2008-2010, and 2011; Revenue share never goes down
Source: PhocusWright, Smith Travel Research
72
Revenue Growth for Total US & OTAsAnnual 2002 -2011* (YOY % Change of Total Revenue and OTA Revenue)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-0.8
1.4
8.4 8.6 7.9 7.4
0.4
-14.2
7.4 8.2
10063.63636363636
36
13.9
24.4
17.6
8.3
1.5 1.5
13.4
18.4
Total US OTAs**100 **63.6
*2011 projected, ** 2002 and 2003 values off the chart (100% and 63.6 %)OTA Revenue Percent Change never was negative, unlike hotel industry
73
OTA Demand & Revenue Share for Total US YTD June 2009, 2010 and 2011 (Percent of Total by OTA Business Models)
Merchant Retail Opaque
6.3
0.9
2.1
6.8
1.2
2.2
7.0
1.6
2.3
Demand Share
200920102011
Merchant Retail Opaque
4.9
0.91.1
4.8
1.1 1.2
5.2
1.61.3
Revenue Share
200920102011
Total OTA Share = Merchant + Retail + Opaque; all models up, retail faster
74
ADR by Channel for Total USAnnual 2009 & 2010 (in Dollars)
Brand.com CRS/Voice GDS Prop Direct/Other
OTA - Merchant
OTA - Retail OTA- Opaque
Total STAR40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
109
128 127
87
76
97
55
98
111
128 128
87
72
96
55
98
2009 2010
Costs included in certain channels, Merchant & Opaque are net
75
OTA Demand Share by Scale for Total USYTD June 2009, 2010 and 2011
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy Independents0
5
10
15
20
9.2
7.96.7
5.6
10.0
6.8
14.2
8.27.7
7.06.4
10.9
9.1
15.7
7.9 7.97.0 6.7
11.510.7
17.32009 2010 2011
OTA share decreased in upper scales, increased in lower scales, esp. Econ.
76
Top 15 Markets by OTA Percent of Total DemandAnnual 2010, Combined OTA Demand compared to Total Demand
San Antonio, TX
Fort Myers, FL
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Seattle, WA
San Diego, CA
Los Angeles, CA
Oahu Island, HI
New York, NY
San Francisco, CA
Orlando, FL
Anaheim, CA
Buffalo, NY
Maui Island, HI
Hawaii-Kauai Islands
Florida Keys
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.5
11.2
11.2
11.3
11.5
11.5
11.8
11.9
12.1
12.7
13.2
15.0
OTA percent higher in large leisure and group destinations
77
Sample State Overview - Tennessee
The following slides provide an example of a Hotel Industry Overview for a typical state
78
State of Tennessee - Key Performance IndicatorsAnnual 2011 Values (also rank among 50 states & DC)
% ChangeNumber of Hotels 1,404 (9)
Number of Rooms 119,937 (12)
Room Supply 43,870,265 1.0% (11)
Room Demand 24,695,345 (12) 6.3% (9)
Occupancy 56.3% (33) 5.2% (12)
Average Daily Rate $79.43 (38) 4.3% (10)
RevPAR $44.71 (34) 9.7% (10)
Room Revenue $196 million (18) 10.9% (7)
Ranked #9 in Number of Hotels, Ranked in top 10 in Demand, ADR, RevPAR, and Revenue % Change
79
Virginia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Missouri
Mississippi
Kentucky
Georgia
Arkansas
Alabama
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2.5
5.2
3.9
2.5
1.4
0.9
3.4
2.3
2.2
Comparable States – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Tennessee has highest Occupancy % Change among bordering states
80
Virginia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Missouri
Mississippi
Kentucky
Georgia
Arkansas
Alabama
0 1 2 3 4 5
0.3
4.3
2.6
2.5
1.9
0.2
0.8
0.700000000000001
2.9
Comparable States– ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Tennessee has highest ADR % Change among comparable states as well
81
Tennessee by Market – Property & Room Count
MarketMarket Code
Census PropsCensus Rooms
Sample Props
Sample Rooms
Knoxville, TN 470100 343 30,128 175 17,182
Memphis, TN-AR-MS
470200 240 22,223 160 16,943
Nashville, TN 470300 317 35,808 237 30,369
Tennessee Area 470400 507 29,877 266 19,283
Chattanooga, TN-GA
470500 109 9,341 82 7,522
82
Total Tennessee
Tennessee Area
Chattanooga
Nashville
Memphis
Knoxville
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
1
0.700000000000001
-1
4.2
-1.5
-0.2
Tennessee Markets - Room Supply Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Supply increase in Nashville due to 2010 flood
83
Total Tennessee
Tennessee Area
Chattanooga
Nashville
Memphis
Knoxville
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
6.3
6.5
2.5
11.3
2.5
3.6
Tennessee Markets – Demand Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Demand increase in Nashville related to 2010 flood
84
Total Tennessee
Tennessee Area
Chattanooga
Nashville
Memphis
Knoxville
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
5.2
5.7
3.5
7.1
4.1
3.9
Tennessee Markets – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Occupancy % changes consistent, Nashville strongest
85
Total Tennessee
Tennessee Area
Chattanooga
Nashville
Memphis
Knoxville
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
4.3
1.6
6.6
7.4
0.2
2.5
Tennessee Markets – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Wide disparity between markets
86
Tennessee by Market and TractMarket MarketCode Tract TractCode CensusProps CensusRooms SampleProps SampleRooms
Knoxville, TN 470100 Knoxville 470101 86 8,198 66 6,970
Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge 470102 193 17,755 71 7,220
Knoxville TN Area 470103 64 4,175 38 2,992
Memphis, TN-AR-MS 470200 Memphis 470201 38 4,278 20 3,363
Memphis Airport & South 470202 46 4,504 19 2,303
Memphis East 470203 96 9,283 78 7,952
Memphis West 470204 24 1,529 14 1,148
Nashville, TN 470300 Nashville Downtown 470301 40 7,087 39 7,053
Nashville Airport 470302 67 11,156 55 10,133
Nashville I-65 North 470303 52 4,094 29 2,691
I-24/Murfreesboro 470304 59 5,140 42 3,791
Brentwood/Franklin 470305 37 4,252 34 4,090
Nashville Other Areas 470306 62 4,079 38 2,611
Tennessee Area 470400 Clarksville MSA, TN 470401 36 2,472 24 1,810
Bristol-Kingsport MSA 470402 60 4,697 40 3,561
Tennessee East Area 470403 149 8,014 73 4,748
Tennessee Central Area 470404 106 5,751 49 3,351
Tennessee West Area 470405 114 6,105 53 3,578
Chattanooga, TN-GA 470500 Chattanooga 470501 38 4,113 24 3,095
Chattanooga Area 470502 59 4,671 51 4,094
87
Bristol-Kingsport MSA
Clarksville MSA, TN
Chattanooga Downtown
Nashville Downtown
Memphis Downtown
Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge
Knoxville Downtown
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15
5.1
13
3.3
3.2
3.3
-1.2
11.2
Tennessee Select Tracts – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Largest Occupancy % changes in Knoxville (business) and Clarksville (military)
88
Bristol-Kingsport MSA
Clarksville MSA, TN
Chattanooga Downtown
Nashville Downtown
Memphis Downtown
Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge
Knoxville Downtown
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.9
3.4
4.8
6.3
0.2
4.1
0.5
Tennessee Select Tracts – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Wide disparity between tracts, 3 low and 4 higher
89
Tennessee by County (counties with 10 or more hotels)County County Code Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms
Anderson County, TN 47001 19 1,238 14 1,058Blount County, TN 47009 29 1,992 12 1,168Bradley County, TN 47011 28 1,511 11 717Cocke County, TN 47029 10 639 7 492Coffee County, TN 47031 20 1,313 13 990Cumberland County, TN 47035 11 641 8 521Davidson County, TN 47037 182 24,673 136 21,292Dickson County, TN 47043 13 820 9 501Dyer County, TN 47045 11 569 7 415Hamblen County, TN 47063 12 789 9 686Hamilton County, TN 47065 92 8,402 72 6,995Hardin County, TN 47071 10 449 3 132Jefferson County, TN 47089 11 564 6 392Knox County, TN 47093 91 8,511 70 7,259Loudon County, TN 47105 11 632 8 477McMinn County, TN 47107 12 663 7 425Madison County, TN 47113 29 2,457 22 2,027Maury County, TN 47119 13 729 7 416Monroe County, TN 47123 10 659 4 218Montgomery County, TN 47125 36 2,472 24 1,810Putnam County, TN 47141 20 1,434 13 1,042Roane County, TN 47145 11 519 8 434Robertson County, TN 47147 11 686 6 366Rutherford County, TN 47149 43 3,583 33 2,864Sevier County, TN 47155 193 17,755 71 7,220Shelby County, TN 47157 172 17,710 112 13,368Sullivan County, TN 47163 26 2,186 17 1,586Sumner County, TN 47165 10 658 7 573Washington County, TN 47179 23 1,970 17 1,665Williamson County, TN 47187 34 3,784 30 3,594Wilson County, TN 47189 20 1,485 15 1,135
90
Wilson County
Williamson County
Washington County
Sullivan County
Shelby County
Sevier County
Rutherford County
Putnam County
Montgomery County
Madison County
Knox County
Hamilton County
Davidson County
Coffee County
Bradley County
Blount County
Anderson County
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
4.5
63.2
7.1
3.7
-1.2
8.4
2
14.1
-5.8
10.8
2.8
6.9
0
27.8
15.7
5.5
Tennessee Counties – Occupancy % Chg, Annual 2011
Most positive, 4 in double digits, 5 in 5-10 range, 5 in 0-5 range, 3 flat or negative
91
Wilson County
Williamson County
Washington County
Sullivan County
Shelby County
Sevier County
Rutherford County
Putnam County
Montgomery County
Madison County
Knox County
Hamilton County
Davidson County
Coffee County
Bradley County
Blount County
Anderson County
-3 0 3 6 9
3.3
2.60.9
0.1
0.2
4.1
-1.8
1.1
3.6
2.7
0.600000000000001
6.4
9.4
3.3
1.5
0.700000000000001
0
Tennessee Counties – ADR % Chg, Annual 2011
Most positive in the 0-5 range, 2 in 5-10 range, 2 flat or negative
92
Tennessee by Physical City (cities with 10 or more hotels)City Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms
Nashville 143 21,260 110 18,890Memphis 140 15,186 88 11,258Pigeon Forge 86 9,076 29 3,346Knoxville 86 8,198 66 6,970Chattanooga 81 7,548 63 6,283Gatlinburg 76 6,036 21 2,138Murfreesboro 31 2,731 22 2,046Clarksville 36 2,472 24 1,810Jackson 28 2,417 22 2,027Franklin 19 2,195 17 2,090Brentwood 18 2,057 17 2,000Johnson City 22 1,910 16 1,605Sevierville 21 1,901 12 1,022Kingsport 20 1,733 12 1,167Cleveland 28 1,511 11 717Cookeville 19 1,384 12 992Alcoa 15 1,295 11 1,114Goodlettsville 16 1,237 12 957Lebanon 16 1,138 11 788Manchester 14 993 9 736Morristown 12 789 9 686Kodak 10 742 9 714Dickson 12 696 9 501Millington 11 680 5 314Columbia 11 657 6 364Crossville 11 641 8 521Newport 10 639 7 492Dyersburg 11 569 7 415
93
Additional State Data – lots of possibilities
• Compare Actual Occupancy or ADR values
• State by Location or Scale - Prop/Room Count & Graph
• State by Brand - Prop/Room Count
• Physical Cities – Graph (more than markets & tracts)
• Historic Supply, Demand, Occupancy & ADR vs. US
• Group/Transient or Day of Week data - Graph
• Pipeline Stats: opens, closes, hotels under construction, & projects in planning
94
Sample Market Overview - Nashville
The following slides provide an example of a Hotel Industry Overview for a typical city or market
95
Market of Nashville - Key Performance IndicatorsAnnual 2011 Values (also rank among 162 US markets)
% ChangeNumber of Hotels 316 (66)
Number of Rooms 35,712 (43)
Room Supply 12,929,657 4.2% (2)
Room Demand 8,036,641 (36) 11.3% (6)
Occupancy 62.2% (42) 7.1% (27)
Average Daily Rate $93.33 (62) 7.4% (8)
RevPAR $58.01 (52) 14.8% (7)
Room Revenue $75 million (36) 19.6% (3)
Ranked #2 in Supply % Change related to flood in 2010,Ranked in top 10 in Demand, ADR, RevPAR, and Revenue % Change
96
New Orleans, LA
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN-AR-MS
Louisville, KY-IN
Indianapolis, IN
Charlotte, NC-SC
Birmingham, AL
Atlanta, GA
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-0.3
7.1
4.1
3
5.8
7.2
9.2
3.1
Comparable Markets – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Nashville 3rd highest Occupancy % Change among similar cities
97
New Orleans, LA
Nashville, TN
Memphis, TN-AR-MS
Louisville, KY-IN
Indianapolis, IN
Charlotte, NC-SC
Birmingham, AL
Atlanta, GA
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
5.3
7.4
0.2
2.8
3.3
3.4
5.1
-0.2
Comparable Markets – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Nashville has highest ADR % Change among comparable markets
98
Nashville Market by Tract – Property & Room Count
Tract Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms
Brentwood/Franklin 37 4,252 34 4,090
I-24/Murfreesboro 59 5,140 42 3,791
Nashville Airport 67 11,156 55 10,133
Nashville Downtown 40 7,087 39 7,053
Nashville I-65 North 52 4,094 29 2,691
Nashville Other Areas 62 4,079 38 2,611
99
Nashville Market Map
100
Total Nashville
Nashville Other Areas
Brentwood/Franklin
I-24/Murfreesboro
Nashville I-65 North
Nashville Airport
Nashville Downtown
-4 0 4 8 12 16
4.2
0.9
0.4
-2.3
0
15.3
0.2
Nashville Tracts - Room Supply Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Supply increase in Nashville Airport Tract due to 2010 flood
101
Total Nashville
Nashville Other Areas
Brentwood/Franklin
I-24/Murfreesboro
Nashville I-65 North
Nashville Airport
Nashville Downtown
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
11.3
7.4
6.6
7.9
3.9
26.2
3.4
Nashville Tracts – Demand Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Demand strong, increase in Airport tract related to 2010 flood
102
Total Nashville
Nashville Other Areas
Brentwood/Franklin
I-24/Murfreesboro
Nashville I-65 North
Nashville Airport
Nashville Downtown
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
7.1
6.6
6.2
10.3
3.9
9.5
3.2
Nashville Tracts – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Downtown and North less than other (Suburb & South) tracts
103
Total Nashville
Nashville Other Areas
Brentwood/Franklin
I-24/Murfreesboro
Nashville I-65 North
Nashville Airport
Nashville Downtown
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
7.4
0.1
2.5
-0.700000000000
001
3.4
16.1
6.3
Nashville Tracts – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Varied: Downtown strong, Airport related to flood, Murfreesboro negative?
104
Nashville Market by City (all cities)City Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms
Nashville 143 21,260 110 18,890Murfreesboro 31 2,731 22 2,046Franklin 19 2,195 17 2,090Brentwood 18 2,057 17 2,000Goodlettsville 16 1,237 12 957Lebanon 16 1,138 11 788Antioch 8 740 6 562Dickson 12 696 9 501Smyrna 9 684 8 650Hermitage 5 452 2 188White House 5 364 4 247Mount Juliet 4 347 4 347Hendersonville 4 339 3 312Gallatin 5 296 4 261Madison 3 232 0 0Springfield 3 189 1 59La Vergne 3 168 3 168Portland 3 133 1 60Burns 1 124 0 0Joelton 1 116 1 116Kingston Springs 3 92 1 44Fairview 2 85 0 0Whites Creek 1 83 1 83Ashland City 1 27 0 0Greenbrier 1 23 0 0
105
Nashville Market by Scale – Property & Room Count
Scale Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms
Luxury Chains 1 340 1 340
Upper Upscale Chains 15 7,420 15 7,420
Upscale Chains 33 4,851 33 4,851
Upper Midscale Chains 71 7,126 71 7,126
Midscale Chains 46 4,085 44 3,907
Economy Chains 83 7,282 69 6,026
Independents 68 4,704 4 699
106
Nashville Market by Brand (brands w/ 500 rooms or more) Chain Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms
Gaylord Entertainment 1 2,884 1 2,884Holiday Inn Express 15 1,668 15 1,668Hampton Inn & Suites 10 1,140 10 1,140Days Inn 13 1,054 13 1,054Courtyard 7 1,048 7 1,048Embassy Suites 4 1,037 4 1,037Marriott 3 999 3 999Sheraton Hotel 2 882 2 882Best Western 10 858 10 858Comfort Inn 10 785 10 785Super 8 11 757 11 757Americas Best Value Inn 9 748 1 120Hampton Inn 8 702 8 702Holiday Inn 2 680 2 680Renaissance 1 673 1 673DoubleTree 3 643 3 643Quality Inn 8 621 8 621Comfort Suites 8 603 8 603La Quinta Inns & Suites 5 583 5 583Country Inn & Suites 8 555 8 555Hyatt Place 5 554 5 554Hilton Garden Inn 4 547 4 547Hilton 2 533 2 533Ramada 6 529 6 529Red Roof Inn 5 500 5 500
107
Total Nashville
Economy Chains
Midscale Chains
Upper Midscale Chains
Upscale Chains
Upper Upscale Chains
0 2 4 6 8 10
7.1
6.6
4
4.8
3.1
7.9
Nashville by Scale – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Occupancy % changes strongest at opposite ends
108
Total Nashville
Economy Chains
Midscale Chains
Upper Midscale Chains
Upscale Chains
Upper Upscale Chains
-3 0 3 6 9
7.4
2.3
-1.9
2.9
5.5
7.1
Nashville by Scale – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Total includes Luxury and Independents, large proportion of Upper Up
109
Nashville Market by Class – little different than Scale
Class Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms
Luxury Class 3 709 3 709
Upper Upscale Class 15 7,420 15 7,420
Upscale Class 33 4,851 33 4,851
Upper Midscale Class 72 7,264 71 7,126
Midscale Class 49 4,418 45 4,103
Economy Class 145 11,146 70 6,160
Independents are combined with chain hotels at similar price level
110
Nashville Market by Location – Property & Room Count
Location Census Props Census Rooms Sample Props Sample Rooms
Urban 59 8,464 41 7,462
Suburban 147 13,027 109 10,599
Airport 66 8,539 56 7,437
Interstate 41 2,761 29 1,927
Resort
Small Metro/Town
Not enough hotels in Resort or Small Metro/Town categories
111
Total Nashville
Interstate
Airport
Suburban
Urban
0 2 4 6 8
7.1
5.9
5.5
7.1
3.7
Nashville by Location – Occupancy Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Occupancy % changes strongest in non-urban locations
112
Total Nashville
Interstate
Airport
Suburban
Urban
0 2 4 6 8
7.4
0.1
2.7
2
5.6
Nashville by Location – ADR Percent ChangeAnnual 2011
Urban has strongest ADR growth, Total includes other hotels
113
Nashville Pipeline Data – Recent Opens and Closes
Stage Brand City Rooms Open Date
Date Closed
Closed Knights Inn Nashville 220 Nov-70 Jul-10
Open Courtyard Goodlettsville 120 Jan-10
Open Hotel Indigo Nashville 97 Mar-10
Open La Quinta Inns & Suites Smyrna 76 Jun-10
Open Comfort Suites Mount Juliet 73 Jul-10
Open Candlewood Suites Murfreesboro 85 Oct-10
Open TownePlace Suites Nashville 101 Jan-12
114
Nashville Pipeline – Hotels Under Construction & In Planning
Stage Brand City Rooms Anticipated Open Date
Under Construction Drury Plaza Hotel Franklin 344 Mar-12
Under Construction Home2 Suites Nashville 119 Jun-12
Under Construction TownePlace Suites Franklin 125 Nov-13
Under Construction Omni Nashville 800 Dec-13
Final Planning La Quinta Inns & Suites Lebanon 72 Oct-12
Final Planning Candlewood Suites Smyrna 88 Nov-12
Final Planning Holiday Inn Franklin 130 Feb-13
Final Planning Residence Inn Nashville 150 May-13
Final Planning Springhill Suites Nashville 103 May-13
Final Planning Homewood Suites Nashville 192 Jul-13
Final Planning Hyatt Place Nashville 255 n/a
Planning Candlewood Suites Lebanon 91 Mar-13
Planning Holiday Inn Nashville 180 Nov-13
Planning Holiday Inn Murfreesboro 100 Feb-14
Planning Home2 Suites Nashville 109 Apr-14
Planning Homewood Suites Franklin 120 Sep-14
115
Additional Market Data – lots of possibilities
• Compare Actual Occupancy or ADR values
• Physical Cities – Graph (more detail than just tracts)
• Market by additional cuts (size, age, boutique, conference, special interest)
• Historic Supply, Demand, Occupancy & ADR
• Group/Transient or Day of Week data – Graph
• Daily data analysis (conventions, sporting events, entertainment, or weather)
116
2012 / 2013 Forecast
117
Total US - Key Performance Indicator Outlook Percent Change vs. Prior Year, Annual 2012 - 2013
Outlook
2012Forecast
2013Forecast
Supply 0.8% 1.4%
Demand 1.3% 2.0%
Occupancy 0.5% 0.5%
ADR 3.8% 4.4%
RevPAR 4.3% 4.9%
118
Total US – Actual Occupancy ForecastAnnual 2005 – 2013P
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P50
55
60
65
70
63.0 63.1 62.8
59.8
54.6
57.6
60.1 60.4 60.7
119
Total US – Actual ADR Forecast (In Dollars)Annual 2005 – 2013P
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P$50
$75
$100
$125
$91.04
$97.81
$104.32$107.39
$98.06 $98.06$101.64
$105.45$110.06
120
U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic Indicators – January 2012
2011 2012F 2013F
Real GDP +1.7% +2.2% +2.6%
CPI +3.2% +2.1% +2.1%
Corporate Profits +8.1% +6.6% +6.3%
Disp. Personal Income +1.1% +1.4% +2.0%
Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.7% 8.3%
121
Total US - Key Performance Indicator Outlook by Scale Annual 2012F by Chain Scale
2012 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale
Occupancy(% chg)
ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 2.7% 4.7% 7.4%
Upper Upscale 0.1% 3.5% 3.6%
Upscale 2.0% 4.5% 6.6%
Upper Midscale -0.3% 3.7% 3.4%
Midscale 1.0% 0.8% 1.8%
Economy 0.7% 2.4% 3.1%
Independent -0.3% 3.4% 3.1%
Total United States 0.5% 3.8% 4.3%
122
-5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15% 15% to 20%
Anaheim-Santa Ana Boston Miami-Hialeah
Atlanta Chicago
Dallas Detroit
Denver Minneapolis-St Paul
Houston Nashville
Los Angeles-Long Beach Norfolk-Virginia Beach
New Orleans Oahu Island
New York San Diego
Orlando St. Louis
Philadelphia
Phoenix
San Francisco-San Mateo
Seattle
Tampa-St Petersburg
Washington, DC
2012 Year End RevPAR ForecastFebruary 2012 Forecast – sorted alphabetically
123
2013 Year End RevPAR Forecast February 2012 Forecast – sorted alphabetically
-5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
Anaheim-Santa Ana Atlanta
Denver Boston
Nashville Chicago
New Orleans Dallas
New York Detroit
Norfolk-Virginia Beach Houston
Oahu Island Los Angeles-Long Beach
Orlando Miami-Hialeah
Philadelphia Minneapolis-St Paul
Phoenix San Diego
San Francisco-San Mateo Seattle
St Louis Tampa-St Petersburg
Washington DC
124
125
Weekday/Weekend Demand Percent Change Total US Running 12 Month - Jan 2007 to Aug 2010
2007 2008 2009 2010-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Weekday Weekend
August 2010:Weekday: 4.0%Weekend: 4.9%
Weekend travel started positive demand trend in early 2010
126
Weekday/Weekend ADR Percent Change Total US Running 12 Month - Jan 2007 to Aug 2010
2007 2008 2009 2010-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Weekday Weekend
August 2010:Weekday: -3.6%Weekend: -3.0%
Weekday & Weekend ADR almost in lockstep?