1 washington water outlook, climate impacts group, seattle, washington – march 21, 2005 “western...
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
“Western Snowpack and Water Supply Perspectives”
Phil PasterisSupervisory Meteorologist
Natural Resources Conservation Service
United States Department of Agriculture
National Water and Climate Centerhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Snow Survey / Water Supply Forecast Program
• J. E. Church• 1909 Mt. Rose, Nevada• 1935, “Principles of Snow
Surveying as Applied to Forecasting Stream Flow,” Journal of Agricultural Research
• NRCS Activities• 1935 - SCS officially began
snow survey and water supply forecasting in the western U.S. and Alaska
• PL 74-46 Soil Conservation Act
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Snow Survey Program Activities
• Lead the Cooperative Snow Survey Program in 12 western states
• Operate the SNOTEL network – 704 sites
• Coordinate the cooperative manual snow survey program – 922 manual sites
• Train snow surveyors in proper snow survey techniques and survival in remote areas
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SNOTEL Network
• 1974 - Congress authorized and funded the SNOTEL system to automate remote sensing of the snowpack information
• Reports daily snow water equivalent, precipitation, snow depth, temperature and other parameters as needed.
Solar Radiation
Relative Humidity
Wind
Air Temp
SnowDepth
Snow Water Equivalent
A typical Mountain SNOTEL station
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SNOTEL Site Locations
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Mt. Rose, NV SNOTEL Site
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Meteor Burst Technology
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Water Supply Forecasting
• 717 total WSF points, 499 are produced NRCS
• Joint activity with National Weather Service
• ~11,000 WSF issued in FY-2004
• 20 NRCS WSF points in Washington
• Over 58,000 “unique user” accesses to WSF in April 2004
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SS-WSF Personnel
• State Data Collection Offices• AK, CO, ID, MT,
OR, UT• State Water Supply
Specialists• AZ, CA, NV, NM,
WA, WY• NWCC Staff at
Portland, OR• Program Liaison in
Washington, DC
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
PNW Snow Survey / WSF Team• Oregon Data Collection Office
• Jon Lea, Snow Survey Supervisor, 503-414-3267 • Sheila Strachan, Hydrologist, 503-414-3272 • Rashawn Tama-Sweet, Hydrologist, 503-414-3268 • Bill Overman, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3269 • Melissa Webb, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3270 • Scott Pattee, Water Supply Specialist, 360-428-7684
2021 E. College Way, Suite 214Mt. Vernon, WA [email protected]
• Water Supply Hydrologists - NWCC• Washington Cascades, Oregon, California, Jolyne Lea, 503-414-3040• Washington, Columbia Basin, Tom Perkins, 503-414-3059• Montana, Colorado, Jennifer Erxleben, 503-414-3033• Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Tom Pagano, 503-414-
3010• Modeling Hydrologist, David Garen, 503-414-3021
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Water Year 2005
• Washington Governor declares statewide drought emergency. $12 mil in funding sought.
• Oregon Governor declares drought emergency in Klamath Basin.
• What IS going on this year?• Extremes in the north (dry) and in the south (wet)• The best of times, the worst of times?• Impacts on the ski industry.• How does it compare to 2001 and 1977 in the PNW?• What’s the spring and summer water supply forecast?• What about next water year?• Is this a “flash drought?”
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
March 1, 2005 / 2001 Snowpacks
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Statistical Snowpack Ranking
• 157 of 471 SNOTEL sites westwide with 20+ years of record rank in the lowest 5% (PNW)
• 17 of 471 SNOTEL sites rank in the highest 5% (Southwest, Great Basin)
• 25 Washington SNOTEL sites set record low snowpacks for March 15
• 30 Washington SNOTEL sites in the lowest 5% ranking
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Washington SNOTEL Sites
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsElbow Lake – 3,200’
3/19/2005 3/19/2001
SWE 1” / PRCP 78” | SWE 20” / PRCP 55”
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsRainy Pass – 4,780’
3/19/2005 3/19/2001
SWE 12” / PRCP 28” | SWE 20” / PRCP 20”
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsStevens Pass – 4,070’
3/19/2005 3/19/2001
SWE 8” / PRCP 48” | SWE 20” / PRCP 25”
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsWhite Pass – 4,500’
3/19/2005 3/19/2001
SWE 1” / PRCP 15” | SWE 11” / PRCP 13”
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsCorral Pass – 6,000’
3/19/2005 3/19/2001
SWE 9” / PRCP 20” | SWE 17” / PRCP 20”
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsParadise– 5,120’
3/19/2005 3/19/2001
SWE 22” / PRCP 48” | SWE 35” / PRCP 45”
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Snowpack ProjectionCorral Pass – 6,000’
Snow Water Equivalent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
701
-Oct
1-N
ov
1-D
ec
1-J
an
1-F
eb
1-M
ar
1-A
pr
1-M
ay
1-J
un
1-J
ul
1-A
ug
1-S
ep
NormalWYTDMax90%70%50%30%10%Min
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Precipitation ProjectionCorral Pass – 6,000’
Accumulated Precipitation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1001
-Oct
1-N
ov
1-D
ec
1-J
an
1-F
eb
1-M
ar
1-A
pr
1-M
ay
1-J
un
1-J
ul
1-A
ug
1-S
ep
NormalWYTDMax90%70%50%30%10%Min
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
March 1, 1977 Water Supply Forecast
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
March 1, 2005 / 2001 Water Supply
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
NRCS / NWS WSF Points
NRCS – Blue NWS – Red Joint – Yellow
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Cle Elum Lake Inflow WSF
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Salmon Crk. Conconully
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Skagit Basin WSF
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
White / Green River WSF
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Lewis / Cowlitz WSF
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage
129% of Average Capacity 43% of Average Capacity
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage
2001 ReservoirsBUMPING LAKE CLE ELUMKACHESSKEECHELUSRIMROCKCONCONULLY RESERVOIRSALMON LAKE
2005 Additional ReservoirsRossChelanDiablo
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Cle Elum Storage: Above Average
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Lurking in Southwest WA...
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Closing Thoughts
• “You can observe a lot just by watchin'.”
“The future ain’t what is used to be.”
Yogi Berra
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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005
Closing Thoughts
• We need to learn to “manage climate impacts.”
• Maintain a robust climate observation network at all elevations.
• Integrate water supply forecasts with risk-based water management decision models.
• Enhance existing technology to deliver risk-based products directly to users in near real-time.
• Snowpack analysis, volume forecasts, special indexes (SWSI, Drought Monitor, etc.)