10 county conference 092409v2 - larimer10 county conference economic outlook richard l. wobbekind...
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10 County ConferenceEconomic Outlook
Richard L. WobbekindAssociate Dean
Leeds School of BusinessUniversity of Colorado at
Boulder
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
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Real GDP Growth
8.0%
4.0%
6.0%Quarterly GDP
GDP 1990 to 1999 3.1%
0.0%
2.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%Annual GDP
-8.0%
-6.0%
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Q1 2000 Q1 2002 Q1 2004 Q1 2006 Q1 2008 Q1 2010Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, CO BEO Committee.
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Real GDP Growth Forecasts for 2009 and 2010
Forecast 2009 Forecast 2010
Government
Fixed Business Investment
Consumption
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: www.dismal.com and Consensus Forecast.
-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0%
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Real US GDP Growth Rate and Colo ado Emplo ment G o th RateColorado Employment Growth Rate
Thousands Colorado Employment vs. US Real GDP
2.9%3.1%3.3%
600
700
US Real GDPGrowth Rate
2.5%2.7%2.9%
400
500 Colorado Employment
Growth
1.9%2.1%2.3%
200
300
497,000 jobs 264,000 650,000
1.5%1.7%1.9%
0
100 added in CO jobs added jobs added < 160,000 jobs added
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Colorado LMI, CO BEO Committees.
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National Employment
ThousandsMonth over Month
200300400500
Month-over-Month
-200-100
0100200
-600-500-400-300-200
-900-800-700600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, SA, Dismal Scientist.
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Jobless Claims: US vs. Colorado
8,000,0001,000,000Continuing ClaimsInitial Claims US Jobless Claims
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
Initial ClaimsContinuing Claims
0
2,000,000
0
250,000
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
60,00080,000100,000
6,000
8,000Continuing ClaimsInitial Claims Colorado Jobless Claims
Initial ClaimsContinuing Claims
020,00040,00060,000
0
2,000
4,000
J 06 J l 06 J 07 J l 07 J 08 J l 08 J 09 J l 09
Continuing Claims
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Source: Not Seasonally Adjusted. US Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.
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How Long?
Economic Scorecard1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Presidential Election/Cabinet
Collapse of pFinancial Markets
Housing Slump
Tight Credit Markets
Confidence Crisis
Overleveraged Consumer
Commodity Prices
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
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U.S. Income and Consumption
Change in Personal ConsumptionReal Disposable Personal Income
4 0
5.0
Percent Change
5 0
6.0
Percent Change
2.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
0.0
1.02.0
3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2000 2003 2006 20092000 2003 2006 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts, CO BEO Committee.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average
Thousands
12 000
13,000
14,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Down 25%
Up 46+%
6,000
7,000March 9, 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09Source: FreeLunch.com
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Index of Housing Prices
180
Housing Price Index Fastest Growing U.S. Regions (2000-2009Q2)
2000=100Mountain
150160170 1. Middle Atlantic 174.6
2. Pacific 169.43. South Atlantic 167.44 N E l d 164 5
United States
120130140150 4. New England 164.5
5. Mountain 157.86. United States 153.27. West South Central 145.1
Colorado
100110120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
7. West South Central 145.18. West North Central 142.29. East South Central 141.210.East North Central 127.2
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
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Household Wealth
40 000$ Billions Mutual Fund
30,000
35,000
40,000 Shares
20,000
25,000
30,000Corporate Equities
10,000
15,000
Real
0
5,000
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009
Estate
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States.
Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009
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Index of Consumer Confidence
1985=100
140.0
160.0Recession8 months
Recession8 months
Recession? months
80 0
100.0
120.0
US
40.0
60.0
80.0
0.0
20.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Source: The Conference Board; National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Nominal Corporate Profits d U S B i Fi d I t tand U.S. Business Fixed Investment
N i l P T C t P fit Business Fixed Investment
24
Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits (% Change)
10
Business Fixed Investment (% Change)
Percent
812162024
t
0
58.8%
-8-4048
Perc
en
-10
-5
-20-16-12
8
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010-20
-15
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-10.3% -18.1%
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts, CO BEO Committee.
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
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ISM Indices
ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
65
70
65
70ISM Non Manufacturing Index
50
55
60
50
55
60
40
45
50
40
45
50
30
35
30
35
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
2000 2003 2006 2009 2000 2003 2006 2009
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Housing Starts
2 5Millions
2.0
2.5
1.5
0.5
1.0 0.80
0.0
0.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Sources: Census Bureau, Consensus Forecast, CO BEO Committee.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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U.S. Housing –Supply, Inventory, and Permits
Months of SupplyNew SF Home Inventory (thousands)
14.0
16.0
500.0
600.0Inventory (thousands)
Housing Supply
8 0
10.0
12.0
300 0
400.0SF Homes for Sale
4.0
6.0
8.0
200.0
300.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
100.0
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: New Houses Sold and For Sale, U.S. Census Bureau.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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NAHB Housing Market Index
8050=Neutral
60
70
80
40
50
60
20
30
0
10
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: National Association of Home Builders.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Foreclosures (August 2009)
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: RealtyTrac.
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Federal Budget Balance
500$ Billions
0
500
-500
-1,500
-1,000
-2,000
1,500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-$1453.9-$1634.8
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Sources: Consensus Forecast, Economy.com.
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World GDP
United States States 27%
All Others52%
Japan 9%
Germany Germany 6%China
6%
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: World Bank. BL Updated: 2/18/09
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U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index &
$ BillionsReal Net Exports
Real Net Exports$326 11997=100 Nominal Broad Dollar Index
-100
0$ Billions -$326.1
130
1351997=100
-300
-200
115
120
125
-500
-400
105
110
115
-700
-600
95
100
2000 2003 2006 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecast.
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Global GDP Growth Forecasts for 2009 and 2010
Forecast 2009 Forecast 2010
A i P ifi
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pacific
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Consensus Forecast.
-5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
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Interest Rates
7 0Percent
6.0
7.0
4.0
5.0
10-year T-bond
2.0
3.0
3-month T-bill
0.0
1.03-month T-bill
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Sources: The Federal Reserve Board, Consensus Forecast.
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Commodities
$12$14 Wheat
$160 WTI
$4$6$8
$10
$ Per
Bus
hel
$40
$80
$120
$ Per
Bar
rel
$0$2$4
2000 2003 2006 2009$50 Molybdenum $8 Corn
$0
$40
2000 2003 2006 2009
$20
$30
$40
$
er P
ound
Molybdenum
$4
$6
$8
r Bus
hel
Corn
$0
$10
$20
2000 2003 2006 2009
$ Pe
$0
$2
2000 2003 2006 2009
$ Pe
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
2000 2003 2006 2009 2000 2003 2006 2009Sources: Energy Information Administration, Dismal Scientist, U.S. Department of Agriculture (No. 1 hard red
winter -ordinary protein, Kansas City, MO), Bloomberg (USDA Toledo No.2 Yellow Corn Not on the River Spot Price), Bloomberg (Molybdenum canned molybdic oxide).
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US Number of BankruptciesPersonal and Business
Business Bankruptcies
Personal Bankruptcies
14 000
16,000
18,000
350,000
400,000BankruptciesBankruptcies
10,000
12,000
14,000
200 000
250,000
300,000Personal Bankruptcies
4 000
6,000
8,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Business Bankruptcies
0
2,000
4,000
0
50,000
,
06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: www.uscourts.gov
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The Colorado Economy
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
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Change in Population
Index of Population Change Change in Colorado Population
120.0
140.0 2000=100
120
140Thousands
80.0
100.0 Natural Change
80
100
40.0
60.0 Net Migration
40
60
-
20.0
0
20
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Sources: Department of Local Affairs, CO BEO Committee.
2000 2003 2006 2009 2000 2003 2006 2009
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Colorado Employment
Employment(000s)
2,400
55 M th
14 Months(000s)
2 200
2,300 55 Months
2,100
2,200
2,000J 00 J 01 J 02 J 03 J 04 J 05 J 06 J 07 J 08 J 09Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.
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Monthly Non-Farm Employment
Number of Employees
y p y2007 through 2009
2,375
2,400
Number of EmployeesThousands
2008
2 300
2,325
2,350
2007
2,250
2,275
2,300
2009
2,200
2,225
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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The Top 5 vs. The Bottom 5 Statesb dd d d
2009 Forecast
Jobs Added in 2009 and 2010 Forecast2010 Forecast
Alaska (3)Dist. Of Columbia (2)
North Dakota (1)
North Dakota (3)
Texas (2)
Dist. Of Columbia (1)
Colorado (29)South Dakota (5)
Louisiana (4)
Wi i (47)
Colorado (4/2-way tie)
Maryland (4)
North Dakota (3)
Nevada (49)Oregon (48)
Ohio (47)
West Virginia (49)
Florida (48)
Wisconsin (47)
8 0% 6 0% 4 0% 2 0% 0 0% 2 0%
Michigan (51)Arizona (50)
( )
8 0% 6 0% 4 0% 2 0% 0 0% 2 0%
Nevada (50T)
Michigan (50T)
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0%
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0%
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Change in Average Employment2008 v 2009 January Through July
2008Govt
EHSMining
Other Info L&H Fin ActMfg2,350
2,375
TTU
Const
PBS2 300
2,325
PBS
2,275
2,300
2009
2,225
2,250
2008 G t EHS Mi i Oth I f L&H Fi A t Mf TTU C t PBS 20092008 Govt EHS Mining Other Info L&H Fin Act Mfg TTU Const PBS 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
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Employment Growth and
2009 Employment Rate of Growth
Unemployment Rate by RegionUnemployment Rate
Rural
% Growth
p y8 Month Avg (August) By Region (MSA)
State -3.6%
Grand Junction
% Growth
p y(MSA) By Region – August 2009
State 7.1%
Colorado
Colorado Springs
Denver-Aurora
Colorado Springs
Greeley
Pueblo
Greeley
Pueblo
Boulder
Fort Collins
Colorado
Denver-Aurora
6% 4% 2% 0% 2%
Grand Junction
Fort Collins
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Rural
Boulder
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2%Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
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Key Industries ComparisonP i E l S T l E l
Index
Primary Employment Sectors vs. Total Employment
130.0140.0
Index2000=100
100.0110.0120.0 Professional Business
Services Employment
70 080.090.0
100.0Manufacturing Employment
C l d E l t
50.060.070.0 Colorado Employment
Information Employment
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NSA.
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Consumer Price Index
5 0Percent
4.04.55.0
United StatesDenver-Boulder-
2.53.03.5
U ted StatesDenver-Boulder-Greeley
1 01.52.0
0.00.51.0
.25%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Index of Housing Prices –
HPI Growth Q2 2009 vs Q2 2008
gColorado Metro Areas
One Year Growth
GreeleyPueblo
Ft. CollinsDenver-Aurora
BoulderHPI Growth Q2 2009 vs Q2 2008 One Year Growth
Boulder = 0.6%
Grand Junction= -3.6%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Grand JunctionNon-metro
Colorado SpringsGreeley Colorado = -1.1%
U.S. = -4.0%
4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
BoulderNon-metro
Grand JunctionHPI Growth Q2 2009 vs Q2 1999 Ten Year CAGR
Grand Junction = 6.9%
GreeleyPueblo
Colorado SpringsFt. Collins
Denver-AuroraBoulder
Greeley 2.2%
Colorado 4.4%
U.S. 5.1%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Greeley
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency.
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10 County Foreclosure Totals and Rates
Adams Arapahoe
El Paso1 4001,6001,800
9 El Paso
Jefferson
Weld1,0001,2001,400
High Volume, Low Rate
High Volume, High Rate
es Q
2 2
00
Douglas
LarimerPueblo
Weld
400600800 Low Volume,
Low RateLow Volume, High Rate
ore
closu
re
BoulderMesa
Pueblo
0200400Fo
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Rate (Households Per Foreclosure)
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Foreclosure Heat Map (August)
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
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Colorado Retail Trade Sales
12Percent Change
Growth vs. Real Growth
68
1012
Rate of Growth
?4.4%
2024 ?
-8-6-4-2
Real Growth
-12-10
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Colorado State Office of Budget and Planning, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CO BEO Committee
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10 County Retail Sales
Percentage of State 2008 Retail SalesAnnualized Growth 2000 to 2008
Arapahoe, 11.5%
Percentage of State 2008 Retail Sales
WeldAdams
Mesa
Adams, 10.3%Other, 35.6%
StatePueblo
Douglas
El Paso, 8.9%
Jefferson, 8 7%Boudler
LarimerEl Paso
State
8.7%Boulder,
5.7%
Larimer 4 8%Douglas, Welds, 4.0%
Mesa, 3.5%Pueblo, 2.6%
JeffersonArapahoe
Boudler
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Colorado Department of Revenue
Larimer, 4.8%g ,4.3%0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
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10 County Employment
Percentage of 2008 State EmploymentAnnualized Growth 2000 to 2008
Arapahoe, 12.2%
Percentage of 2008 State Employment
WeldMesa
Douglas
El Paso , 10.6%Other, 35.7%
StateAdams
Larimer
Jefferson, 9.2%
Boulder, BoulderEl PasoPueblo
State
7.0%Adams, 6.7%Larimer,
5.7%Douglas, Weld, 3.6%
Mesa, 2.8%Pueblo, 2.5%
ArapahoeJefferson
Boulder
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.
g ,4.1%0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
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10 County Wages
Percentage of 2008 Total State WagesAverage Annual Wages
Arapahoe, 14.0%
Percentage of 2008 Total State Wages
DouglasArapahoe
Boulderg g
Other, 41.7%El Paso, 9.4%
AdamsJefferson
Stateg
Boulder, 8.1%
Jefferson, 9.1%
MesaLarimerEl PasoAdams
Larimer, 0.5%Pueblo, 1.8%
M 2 3%Weld, Douglas,
Adams, 6.0%Pueblo
WeldMesa
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Colorado Data Mining Project.
Mesa, 2.3%,
3.0%Douglas,
4.1%0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
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Percentage of County Employmentf f
35 00%Percentage
Mining
PST, Manufacturing, Information, Mining
30.00%
35.00%
Professional & Technical Services Manufacturing InformationMining
20.00%
25.00%
10.00%
15.00%
0.00%
5.00%
B ld A h W ld J ff D l L i El P M Ad P blBoulder Arapahoe Weld Jefferson Douglas Larimer El Paso Mesa Adams Pueblo
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
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Gross General Fund Projections
$/Milli
jDecember 2007 through September 2009
$9 100
$9,400
$/Millions
$
$8,500
$8,800
$9,100December 2007
June 2008
$7,600
$7,900
$8,200
June 2009
December 2008March 2009
$6,700
$7,000
$7,300
FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012
September 2009
FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Source: Colorado Legislative Council.
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Colorado Recovery
• Tech led• Stimulus
Housing• Housing• Energy• Agriculture
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
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Issues
• Employment Growth
• Stimulus FundsStimulus Funds
• Government Finance/Retail Sales
• Small Business Survival
• Innovation
• Commodity prices
• ForeclosuresBusiness Research Division – Leeds School of Business
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Leeds Business Confidence IndexQ2 2003 Q3 2009Q2 2003 - Q3 2009
Index (50=Neutral) Leeds Business Confidence Index
65
70
75
50
55
60
35
40
45
25
30
35
Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q12008 Q1 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q12008 Q1 2009
Source: LBCI.
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Leeds Business Confidence IndexQ2 2003 Q3 2009Q2 2003 - Q3 2009
Index (50=Neutral) LBCI – Hiring and Capital Expenditures
65
70
75g p p
Hiring
50
55
60
35
40
45Capital Expenditures
25
30
35
Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q12008 Q1 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q12008 Q1 2009
Source: LBCI.
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Leeds Business Confidence IndexQ2 2003 Q3 2009Q2 2003 - Q3 2009
Index (50=Neutral) LBCI – Sales and Profits
65
70
75
Sales
50
55
60
35
40
45Sales
25
30
35
Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q12008 Q1 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q12008 Q1 2009
Source: LBCI.
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Leeds Business Confidence IndexQ2 2003 Q3 2009Q2 2003 - Q3 2009
Index (50=Neutral) LBCI – National and State Expectations
65
70
75p
Colorado
50
55
60
35
40
45
United States
25
30
35
Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q12008 Q1 2009
Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business
Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q12008 Q1 2009
Source: LBCI.
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Business Research Division – Leeds School of Business