12 january 2012 e: [email protected] p. +61 (0)3 63249561marcbowles.com/publications/derf...
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Digital Economy and Regional Futures research project
Purpose
The Digital Economy and Regional Futures research project (DERF) undertakes research on information and communication technology (ICT) in regional businesses and supply chains. We focus on investigating how access to high-speed broadband—such as the National Broadband Network (NBN)—and development of ICT skills (eSkills) that will transform rural and regional areas. A particular focus is on the futures created through use of smart technology in the delivery of government services o the home (health, education and utilities), and in industries such as transport, retail, agricultural supply chains and, in particular, small businesses.
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(http://www.derf.com.au)
Foresighting
What?
Foresighting is a participative approach to creating shared long-term visions to inform short-term decision-making processes. Such an approach can support long range forecasting by providing more tangible deliverables that generate immediate wins or ‘stepping stones’ to the desired future state.
Why?
Foresighting allows action to be based on tangible goals. It makes future possibilities attainable by making sure early wins delineate progress towards a vision that may be 10 or more years distant.
Attainment of goals will orient policy planning, enable transformation, build critical mass and generate real socio-economic growth for those involved.
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10 current ICT developments influencing our digital future
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1. Active and smart technologies:
Including portable, passive or active computing and communication
devices (accelerometers, telemetry devices, etc.); personal wearable ICTs
and intelligent agents.
2. Immersive & semantic web:
Enhanced ability to personalise the human experience (3D and virtual
environments) and software that can not only conduct refined searches, it
can capture, analyse, share and combine information to generate
unique conclusions.
4. Virtual environments, 3D authoring and imagery applications, and spatial systems: Making training and assessment, interactive communication, mining geoscience, design and delivery of clinical services such as in surgery or business support services come alive in a virtual setting.
4. Personalisation Web 2.0 & 3.0, The desire to reorganize online content rather than simply
viewing it, the personal web is part of a trend that has been fuelled by tools to aggregate the flow of content in
customisable ways and expanded by an increasing collection of widgets that manage online content.
9. Collaboration & open architecture. Social networking, professional and personal services and open
source applications and architectures. People are sharing, collaborating and developing content, services and information
as never before. User groups are developing reliable, inexpensive, versatile and ever improving solutions.
7. Nano-technologies & wireless sensor networks: Emerging use in not only clinical setting but also in retail and transport settings such as packaging, tracking and trace, nanosensor and business.
7. Geo-positioning devices: Able to
passively or actively record precise locations or present information that is location specific, for instance, through a device or application added to a mobile phone, freight or a vehicle.
10. Centralisation of operational
capabilities: Cloud
and Service (SaaS) or Platform as a Service
(PaaS) promoting lower cost of entry to source
technology and applications, facilitating
data and applications sharing or storage,
Operations and Business Service Systems.
3. Boosted access & smart infrastructure:
Universal access balanced with smarter infrastructure able to
manage networks, services and operations. Improved infrastructure
and platforms to supercharge capabilities people, regions and business can access (LTE, NBN,
4G/5G). Thus improving peer-to-peer connectivity, and the
discovery, capture and sharing of information across organisations
and locations.
6. Mobility: Expansion of wireless network (WiMAX, NBN fixed wireless) and new cellular broadband networks (LTE/4G) to improve customer experience and delivery of high value add services and applications. This will permit major transformation to operating/business models and configuration of value chains (B2B/ B2C/B2G). New interfaces, broadband connectivity, platforms (iPads, Android/Windows tablets), all are stimulating growth in mobile services specific to the person, just in time, anywhere..
Marco environmental drivers inspiring our digital future
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Shifting economic power This includes the global shift away from Europe to Asia and
the relative growth of economic wealth in countries often able to invest in the new while not
being burdened by the old.
Regulation and freedom of access
Open access, open architecture and sharing drive Internet
adoption. But issues relating to subordination of the Internet to
the jurisdiction of states (ownership of content,
governance of transnational providers and regulation of
electronic trade) remain complex. Tensions result with Stop Online
Piracy Act (SOPA) efforts by nations to regulate domestic
consumption of the ‘borderless’ Internet generate opposition
from global community of people seeking to preserve Internet
‘freedom’.
The value of data and information We have appreciated the value of knowledge and information, now it is a major component of our economies and the value we ascribe to customers and businesses . Now privacy, IP, rights management , permissions and identity have to be managed and protected.
Digital skills & digital divides A new social divide is emerging that is beginning to reinforce those from the industrial era. Without skills access does not
deliver adoption. The new challenge is to bridge the digital divide through ‘universal’ and
provision of education and opportunities for disadvantaged,
minorities and remote communities to access new opportunities and economic
advantages.
Personalisation Markets are being build on
delivering to individuals what they want, when they want it to their
personal preferences.
Internet of Everything Our society and economies are changing as the Internet become ubiquitous to our lives. Objects can be identified, located and monitored. Sensors, miniaturisation, wearable computers, and such like beckon an era where technologies are smart and connectivity is constant.
Complexity & convergence increase in the search for simplicity: Devices, platforms and applications converge, become smarter, smaller and able to communicate synchronously.
Global race to compete in the digital economy
There is a global race by nations to build the
infrastructure that enables early advantage in the digital economy and will form the
backbone for competitiveness of nations in the 21st century, just as road, rail and utilities networks did to for the industrial economy
of the 19/20th century.
Social drivers join the economic ones to impel
nations to not only achieve quality, high speed
connections but the ubiquity of access that ensures
everyone can participate
Piracy, theft and viruses As connectivity and
complexity increases so greater risks emerge. Legal and social thinking have to change and so will people’s perceptions of the both the technology and their safety
be challenged.
Moving from today’s Internet to the next generation high speed Internet
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Source: Bowles, 2004, updated 2011
Today’s Internet Next generation Internet
Reactive Pro-active
Mass information and data Customised to personal preferences
Download to use (Music, video, data, etc.) Use or share in online environment
Applications and data stored on local network and computing device
Applications and data shared and distributed over the internet
Own resources and applications Cloud computing: distributed data sets and computing
Type of device determines, access to network, speed of connection and where user can connect
Any device, anywhere to multiple high speed network connections
Asynchronous – one to one, one to many communication and web cam connections
Synchronous – two-way, same time communication, many to many connections
Low quality, slow to download audio and video High quality, high definition audio and video
Buy to own Pay to access on demand, as required
ICT employment and skills: Searching for the ‘lost’ industry
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At present the labour market in Australia—as with many developed economies—ICT occupations are hard to define, isolate and study. Even defining the “ICT industry” is fraught with definitional issues relating to how it encompasses telecommunications, information technology, digital and interactive media, or media and information services. How definitions are derived and formal classification of occupations under Australian and New Zealand Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) or of industry (ANZSIC) have been constantly criticised for their lack of relevance to the real world and congruence between government definitions of the ‘industry’ and those used by employers, professional associations and economic planners. In terms of Foresighting we know the following:
A. The ICT industry in Australia is estimated to have generated $85-$98 billion in revenue for the year 2008-2009, to have employed some 268,000 people in the ICT industry in 2007-2008, and, as of February 2010, to employ a total of 532,500 ICT workers in all industries across Australia [1]
B. As many as half of all ICT employees reside in industries other than what can be classified (using national statistical collections) as the IT industry or Communication Services.[2]
C. The NBN roll out alone is achieving an additional 15,000 additional jobs in telecommunications infrastructure and increasing pressure on regional labour markets for the supply of engineering and construction jobs.
D. Mining, health, retail and the transport and logistics industries continue to grow demand for ICT workers as technology and network advances stimulate advanced digital capabilities. [3]
1. ABS Labour Market Survey Feb 2009, ICT Industry logistics CIIER 2008 as reported in Australian Computer Society July 2009, ACS Australian ICT Statistical Compendium 2009. pp. 6-7. 2. Bowles, M. & Wilson, P. January 2011, Public Report: The Impact of the Digital Economy and the National Broadband Network on Skills, Innovation and Business Skills Australia, Melbourne,
p.11. Available at http://tiny.cc/6sjxy. 3. Bowles, M. 2011 Realising the full socio-economic promise of the National Broadband Network in preparing all regions of Australia for participation in the Digital Economy. Armidale: DE
Hub Monograph Series. Available at http://tiny.cc/d1iqu.
Australian ICT workforce Snapshot August 2010
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Source: Bowles 2011
Digital futures relies on a long term, systematic view of ICT development
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Source: Bowles 2011
eSkills
As with the presence of ICT across the workforce, eSkills (ICT skills) exist at different levels of deployment. This will include essential or foundation skills for everyone to use ICT; ICT skills common to many occupations and roles across all industries; and specifically for those in the ICT industry, as depicted below. Each dimension has interdependency. It can be expected the flow of eSkills can occur between dimensions as once specialist ICT skills mature and become less visible or are assimilated into everyday work or life.
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Source: Bowles, 2011
Immediate eSkill challenges
Based on workforce planning and development conducted for Innovation and Business Skills Australia[1] the following ICT skill sets have to grow to sustain advancement of a digital economy:
• Digital literacy
• Small business ICT skills (digital literacy + e-business)
• Systems security and data protection
• Enterprise architecture design and systems strategy planning
• Network technicians
• Network management and integration specialists
• Database and systems administrators
• Software specialists, advanced programming and 3D digital content creation
• Applications and interactive media/games developers
• Multimedia content production specialists
• Customer service and ITOL specialists
• IT and change project managers
• ICT deployment industry-specific specialists (i.e. logistics, mining, health, education)
1. IBSA eScan 2011 and 23 September 2010, Impact of the Digital Economy and the National Broadband Network on Skills.
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Foresight Analysis: Future impact for key sectors
Sector General Impact
Information Technology As a major enabler and sustainers of the digital economy rapid growth is stimulated in the development and sale of digital technologies (platforms), software and applications. For Australia’s IT industry the emphasis will be on growing the majority of businesses, especially SME ICT businesses that maintain, serve and support technology implementation. Developments identified as radically affecting the industry in Australia include: Cloud computing and SaaS Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) or All-over-IP (AoP) and digital
communications Mobiles as computing devices and mobile applications Open operating systems Smart objects Intelligent software Semantic aware applications
Telecommunications Major beneficiary not just from the construction of the network but the advances in R&D and investment spurred by the market opportunity. Increase use and availability reduces overall cost of development (Metcalf’s Law) and shift from old to new, more scalable technologies is enabled; eg. Shift away from fix, terrestrial copper lines towards fibre infrastructure and high speed wireless/mobile.
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Foresight Analysis: Future impact for key sectors (continued…2)
Sector General Impact
Government Potentially the early winner from broadband networks and, given overseas examples, able to leverage enormous cost savings. Efficiencies in service delivery leveraged through improved eSecurity personalisation of services to individuals connected to a high speed
broadband network. Improve transparency with personalisation of services, e.g. Billing management of documents and data across public sector agencies and
levels of government improved. Engagement and participative online tools and forums
Health Advances in e-health and the overall improvement to: Remote and home monitoring Document control and information exchange (e.g. prescriptions and
health records) Management of large format files and content (e.g. X-rays, videos of
procedures, training) rollout of telehealth and provision of services to rural and remote
locations by clinical specialists located elsewhere personalised tracking and transparency of reporting of services for
individual patients
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Foresight Analysis: Future impact for key sectors (continued…3)
Sector General Impact
Transport & Logistics Significant improvements to supply chain management: use of intelligent technologies to report and synchronise data sharing
across a value chain Enablement of data capture at point of service to improved ‘pull’ supply
chain and logistics solutions Geo-location and telemetry solutions Smart transport and environmentally responsible solutions
Business services Move of business models towards: New Electronic business models New ecommerce tools and transaction engines using a range of
technologies and network channels (mobile, satellite, etc.) to reach a customer
smart homes and security systems Smart energy grids and metered services (e.g. Power companies reading
meters or companies providing service virtually in real time, at any time to connected premises)
Significant shift in how knowledge is management, shared and stored Sustainability and green business uptake with virtualisation, waste
management and telework Rapid start ups with SaaS and Platforms as a Service (PaaS) off-setting
business costs (especially for small to medium businesses, SMBs)
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Foresight Analysis: Future impact for key sectors (continued…4)
Sector General Impact
Education Significant enablement of existing trends in: elearning and the use of online and digital media to support open and
distance learning Revitalisation of more interactive, synchronous forms of interaction
between all participants synchronous virtual classrooms huge central object/content repositories and shared resources eBooks and dBooks Collaborative and interactive online pedagogies Use of virtual and 3D simulations
Banking and Finance Further advances in online banking (ebanking) and the ability to deliver services to customers on demand. Improvements in security and connectivity through high speed broadband accelerates personalisation of banking, finance and insurance service delivery; especially to rural and remote customers.
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Foresight Analysis: Future impact for key sectors (continued…5)
Sector General Impact
Retail Greater personalisation of e-commerce and online products and services. Use
of intermediaries improves e-markets and the cost saving to final consumers.
Shift of many more businesses and products and services into digital
marketplaces.
Printing Increased opportunities to transfer and produce print product from concept
to actual production using virtual, cloud solutions. Integration of graphic
design, printing and mail services by e-printing businesses.
Manufacturing Broadband and connected digital devices enable rapid improvement to
production control, lean processes and the management and control of
operations. Shift to pull-supply chains ties production more tightly to demand
so improving efficiency of inventory management and procurement.
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Foresight Analysis: Future impact for key sectors (continued…6)
Sector General Impact
Tourism Broadband infrastructure and deployment of advanced ICTs will play an important role in stimulating regional tourism. Broadband can strengthen economic development through attracting visitors to the region and enhancing the profitability of accommodation and recreational service providers. Broadband can enhance booking services, online marketing, sales and transactions (e-commerce). More broadly it can permit virtual experiences, interactive digital kiosks, stimulate longer term stays or conferences as business people are able to connect to their workplaces, and assist plan more personalised experiences using online tools, in real time.
Media and Entertainment
Continued convergence of entertainment, media and games platforms and network connections. Typified by: Major shift in channels to market for entertainment and media companies
(e.g. Videos-on-demand, high definition IP TV); Multi-platform product delivery to homes (e.g. TV as a computer and visa-
versa) Volume of sales in entertainment (music, movies, etc.) products increases
over physical sales as consumers access digital products anywhere, anytime (especially across mobile broadband networks)
Shift in how entertainment is accessed (e.g. Use of the Internet to Download MP3 onto games console, or radio streamed onto mobile phone)
promoting interaction and collaboration (e.g. massively multi-player online games)
Virtual shops and intermediaries rather than physical shops.
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