12 november 2020 -...

12 November 2020

2

AGENDA

CEO Agenda

Operation & Financial Performance

Industry Outlook

3Q20 & 9M20 Highlight

QoQ 45%

5.52 4.66 6.76

5.46 5.38

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

30

31

32

33

3

Key DriversFirm MKT GIM was driven by higher PTF VS soften GRM

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

Brent Dubai

Crude Oil Price (avg)

Gross Refining Margin (GRM)

Foreign Exchange (avg)

Product to Feed Margin (PTF)

Unit: $/bbl Unit : THB/USD

3.43 2.57

0.73

2.67

1.38

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Unit: $/bbl Unit: $/bbl

YoY 79%

QoQ 72%

YoY 22%

2Q20 (End 31.07)

31.78

Dubai QoQ 40%

Dubai YoY 30%

QoQ appreciated 2%

YoY depreciated 2%

31.76

YoY 48% YoY 1%

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Brent 63.20 68.85 61.94 63.21 50.26 29.20 42.29

Dubai 63.53 67.36 61.16 62.05 50.74 30.55 42.921Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

30.88 30.45 31.45 32.12

4Q19 (End 30.33)

31.49

3Q20 (End 31.83)

4

Financial Highlight: 3Q20 & 9M20 performanceImproved GIM despite higher crude premium

54,264 30,370 37,671

166,240 111,658

QoQ 24%

YoY 31%

Overview of Business

Net Sales(net excise tax)

Dubai (Avg.)

Unit: $/bbl

Unit: MB

EBITDA

Unit: MB

738 1,505 5,843 5,397

911

QoQ 288%

Net Sales(net excise tax)

Market GIM ($/bbl)

61.16

30.5542.92

64.02

41.40

Crude run KBD

Acct. GIM ($/bbl)

Net Stock G/(L)($/bbl)

YoY 83%

YoY 33%

193 189 195 200 191

10.15 8.46 8.74 9.30 8.03

(2.43) 0.17 6.67 (0.07) (1.78)

7.72 8.63 15.41 9.23 6.25

YoY - n.a.

3Q20 9M20

(185%)

54%

231%

67%

31%

2%

111,658MB

911MB

63%

24%

13%

69%

29%

2%

37,671MB

5,843MB

Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others

EBITDA

YoY 218%

QoQ 479%Net IncomeUnit: MB

Net Income

Operating NI (153)

(1,095)(422)

(1,123) (3,335)(1,321)

(411)

1,556

(661)

(7,760)3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

YoY – n.a.

YoY 197%QoQ 61%

YoY 188%

Awards and Achievement in 3Q20National Innovation Awards 2020 Human Rights Awards 2020

5

Asian Excellence Awards 2020

6

AGENDA

CEO Agenda


Industry Outlook

3Q20 & 9M20Highlight

7

Higher crude run due to the petrochemical market recovery

Crude Intake/Utilization Rate

MKT GIM Net Stock gain/(Loss)

(1.00)

4.87

1.17

1.80

2Q20 3Q20

Hedging Stock G/(L) & LCM

Production Volume & Sales Volume

6.50 $/bbl

MKT GIM2Q20

MKT GIM 3Q20

Crude Premium

Unit: $/bbl

Premium on sales

Fuel loss & Internal

Use

Projects

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Refinery (Unit: KBD,%)

193 189 195 200 191

90% 88% 91% 93% 89%

Lube

79% 87% 84% 82% 83%

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Olefins

101% 91% 88% 96% 91%

Aromatics & Styrenics

96% 95% 100% 92% 96%

Petroleum Petrochemical

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Production (M.bbl)

14.16 13.40 14.23 43.18 41.16

Sales Volume (M.bbl)

16.55 14.45 15.76 49.15 45.39

Petroleum

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Production (KMT)

464 437 441 1,346 1,327

Sales Volume (KMT)

473 450 413 1,385 1,292

Petrochemical

Margin

20.4 30.5

40.8 43.3 44.0 41.5 Dubai Price

($/bbl)

6.67

0.17

1.01

0.66

0.96

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20

8

Higher liquidity as a result of better performance

Financial Performance

0.69

0.880.73

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20

< 1.0x

Net IBD/Equity

3Q20 Net IBD/Equity : 0.73 times

Financial Position

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

54,264 30,370 37,671 166,240 111,658

738 1,505 5,843 5,397 911

(1,321) (411) 1,556 (661) (7,760)

Net Sales

EBITDA

Net Profit

Net Loss 2Q20

Margin

Net Stock gain

OPEX & Selling Exp.

UnrealizedOil Hedging

Financial Derivatives

FX from borrowing

Tax & Others

Net Profit 3Q20

Operating Income 61%

Net Income 479%

(411) 1,556

(1,095) (422)

Unit: MB

Net Profit: 3Q20 VS 2Q20

3,447 6,445 6,944 7,370

18,089 950 - 1,266 1,266

1,899

-

6,889 1,997 1,997

7,988

4,397

13,334 10,207 10,633

27,976

2020 2021 2022 2023 >2023

THB Bond

USD Loan

THB Loan

Remark: Long-term debt as at 30 Sep 2020

Net Debt = 54,350 MB

Ex. Rate = 31.83 Baht/$

Interest Rate Currency

Float 65% THB 89%

Fixed 35% USD 11%

ST Loan4%

LT Loan (USD)8%

LT Loan (THB)61%

Bond (THB)27%

Leasing0.3%

Maturity of LT Debt

CA/CL

3Q20 CA/CL: 0.96 times

9

AGENDA

CEO Agenda


Industry Outlook


10

Oil Demand Outlook

Global oil demand slowly recovery

A

Source: Platts

2021 growth: 5.8 MMB/D

2020 growth: -8.5 MMB/D

B

C

China oil demand achieved a V sharp recovery

Demand growth drive by ASIA

11

Oil Supply OutlookGlobal oil supply growth led by OPEC+

Source: Platts

A BGlobal Supply / Demand Supply Growth

C

Product OutlookRefinery downtime remain severe

Source: Platts

Stock near “Normal” in key region

A B

C

12

FO

+ Lockdown restrictions are lifted in various parts of the world+ Strong Naphtha demand- Ramp-up in refinery runs- Sliding demand in US during winter

GAS Oil

13

4Q20-1Q21 Market Outlook

ULG 95

FODriving Determinants : Petrochemical

Crude Oil

ULG 95

ABS

PP

HDPE (Pipe)

PS

KeyProducts

Price (3Q20)

Spread(3Q20)

Refinery ($/bbl) ($/bbl)

Dubai 42.9

ULG 95 47.3 4.4

Gas Oil 47.1 4.2

FO 40.4 -2.5

Polymer ($/T) ($/T)

PP 954 557

HDPE(Pipe)

1,035 638

PS 1,022 625

ABS 1,528 1,131

Driving Determinants : Petroleum

+ Recovery of manufacturing in China amid COVID-19 easing+ Increasing demand from colder than usual winter+ International flights resume after lockdown easing- Weak demand due to bearish economic sentiment.

+ Rising demand from more scrubber units come on stream by year end + Increased demand from china as many independent refiners have fully utilized - Fading demand for electric generation from the M.E.

+ Improve demand in Asia after COVID-19 Crisis has eased+ Narrow PE Pipe- ethylene spread may force high-cost producers to reduce operating rate- Slow demand during winter in N.E.A.

+ Manufacturing season + Food-packaging and medical demand remain healthy+ Supply tight in 4Q20 during region T/A period- lean inventory by the end of Dec.

+ Shifting demand in hygiene and appliance due to consumer behavior changes.+ The Automotive producers in Asia have return to the market+ Manufacturing season.

+ Manufacturing season+ Supply tight during T/A period in region.- Soft demand from the alternative plastics

+ Global stimulus package+ US production turns to decline- Return of Libyan oil to the market- Slow pace of economic recovery amid 2nd wave of COVID-19

14

AGENDA

CEO Agenda


Industry Outlook


How to perform under the Crisis

Zero Plastic Waste

Modular Diagnosis Room/ARI Clinic Room

Testing Services Center

Nano Zinc Oxide

FOMM

Graphene Mask

MYTEX

Innovation Center ( )

A N T Team

IRPC 4.0

NOAH

Maximize Assets Value

Floating Solar

ABS Expansion

Ultra Clean Fuel (UCF)

Strengthen IRPC

Specialty Products Enhancement

Streamline Work Process

Sustaining the Future through

“ESG”

15

16

Maximize Assets Value

Floating Solar

Capacity : 75 KBD

CAPEX : 14,400 MB (~ 450 M$)

IRR : ~ 14 %

COD : 2Q23

Ultra Clean Fuel Project (UCF)

ABS Expansion

CAPEX : ~ 430 MB

IRR : ~ 17%

COD : 2Q21

Increasing ABS specialty by 6,000 MTA

Enforcement of the Euro 5 diesel regulation in Thailand

To produce electricity 12.5 MW

Floating Support material by own HDPE

Area : Reservoir in Industrial Park

Usage : Internal use at PP Plant

CAPEX : ~ 550 MB

IRR : ~ 17%

COD : 5 June 2020

Strengthen IRPC

Driven performance by “Strengthen IRPC” program to deliver benefit

17

Specialty Products Enhancement

Commodity Plus42%

Specialty13%

Commodity45%

Commodity Plus42%

Specialty30%

Commodity28%

Target 2024As IS

Expedite Specialty Product in focusing area

PP Compound for EV CarExterior and Interior Parts

Nano Zinc Oxide

Shift to Specialty Chemicals for Better Agriculture

“ANT” Program

Cross-function pilot teams

3D Graphene Face Mask

Product Launch in Sep 2020

“Dual Layer Graphene Fabric Mask”

IRPC Innovation Center (IIC)

To be World-class Fast Follower of Advanced Materials

MYTEX

Penetrate Automotive Market

PP Compound for Automotive

National Innovation Awards 2020 in the Innovative Organization for large business category

18

Streamline Work Process

IRPC 4.0

Creating the leading digital player of future

“ANT” Team

NOAH: New Organization with Agile Human

Enhancing “ANT” Team to other potential sectors

Further enhance business strategies after digital transformation

Crude Selection(Control Tower)

Real-time economic optimization

(EKON)

iPolymerAdvanced pricing

algorithm

Main Initiatives

Choices of Life Through Package

• Aspiring Separation Program (ASP)

• Mutual Separation Program (MSP)

19

Sustaining the Future through “ESG”

Designed by IRPC’s Engineer And Signed the MOU with Rayong Hospitals

Modular Diagnosis Room / ARI Clinic Room

Testing services center

The Collaboration between IRPC & Navamindradhiraj University (NMU)

• Testing Services Center

• Clean room

• To Test & Certify PPE medical products

“One Stop Service Clinic” Zero Plastic Waste

Under Circular Economy

To manage the entire production chain in the

plastic industry (Closed Loop)

To use Big Data to create a Plastic Waste

Platform database

To manage single-use plastic waste from

world-famous restaurants

Zero waste Product

This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use by prospective investors / analysts in the

proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient

agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.

The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the Information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient

of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.

Investor Relations Contact: [email protected]

Tel. +662-765-7380, Fax. +662-765-7379

Presentation is available at

www.irpc.co.th

Click “Presentations”

Please complete our 3Q20 & 9M20 satisfaction survey via QR CODE

Thank You

Disclaimers

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.irpc.co.th/

Appendix

70% 72% 67% 68% 70%

19% 18% 21% 17% 19%7% 4% 5% 6% 5%

4% 5% 6% 9% 7% Others

Domestic

Far East

Middle East

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

38,195 18,782 25,991 117,435 75,017 Petroleum

34,136 16,066 22,222 104,477 64,672 Refinery

4,059 2,716 3,769 12,958 10,345 Lube Base

90% 88% 91% 93% 89% % U-Rate

193 189 195 200 191

22

Petroleum Group3Q20: Higher crude premium affected soften GRM9M20 : Weaker products spread during COVID-19 pandemic led to lower Mkt GRM

14.87 12.72 13.95

43.95 40.09 1.68 1.73 1.81

5.20 5.30

16.55 14.45 15.76

49.15 45.39

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Lube Base

Refinery

3.63 (0.81) 1.62 2.91 1.94

2.10 1.29

(0.94)

1.46

(0.17)

1.33

1.28

1.67

1.21

1.55

3.43

2.57

0.73

2.67

1.38

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Lube Base

Refinery

Crude Intake

GRMSales Volume & Revenue

Production

72% 72% 67% 70% 70%

28% 28% 33% 30% 30%

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Sweet Crude

Sour Crude

Premium over Dubai ($/bbl)

Crude Run (KBD)

YoY 5%

QoQ 9%

YoY 32%

QoQ 38% Revenue

YoY 8%

YoY 36%

Crude intake (Mbbl)

Unit : $/bbl

Unit : Mbbl

Unit : Mbbl

17.73 17.18 17.95

54.48 52.24Sales Volume

Unit : MB

YoY 1%

QoQ 4% YoY 4%

YoY 0.5%

QoQ 6% YoY 5%

90% 88% 91%

79% 87% 84%

113% 79% 97%

93% 89% % Utilization

82% 83% Lube Base

99% 90% RDCC

YoY 79%

QoQ 72% YoY 48%

17.73 17.18 17.95

54.48 52.24

1.73 1.23 2.15 1.62 1.55

3.793.43

4.613.84 3.83

5.524.66

6.765.46 5.38

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Olefins

Aromatics &Styrenics

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

15,250 10,733 10,801 46,229 34,030 Petrochem

9,872 6,597 6,605 29,395 21,292 Olefins

5,378 4,136 4,196 16,834 12,738

23

Petrochemical Group3Q20: Thanks to Styrenics spread supported a rise in PTF9M20 : Mkt PTF dropped as low products spread according to the COVID-19 outbreak

9M20 : Petrochemical revenue was Bt 34 bn

YoY : 26% decrease from 19% price decrease & 7% volume decrease

9M20 Market PTF was $5.38/bbl:

YoY : $0.08/bbl decrease as lower products spread through the COVID-19 outbreak

Production

PTF

Sales Volume and Revenue

174 188 178 534 522 299 262 235

851 770 473 450 413

1,385 1,292

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Olefins &Polyolefins

Aromatics &Styrenics

QoQ 8%

QoQ 1% Revenue

YoY 13%

YoY 29%

YoY 7%

YoY 26%

Unit : KMT

3Q20 Petrochemical revenue was Bt 11 bn QoQ : 1% increase from 9% price increase VS 8% vol. decrease YoY : 29% decrease from 16% price decrease & 13% vol. decrease

3Q20 Market PTF was $6.76/bbl:

QoQ : $2.10/bbl increase as higher Styrenics products spread & stable Olefins products spread at high level

YoY : $1.24/bbl increase as higher products spread

Crude intake (Mbbl)

Unit : $/bbl

Unit : KMTSales Volume

Unit : MB

YoY 5%

QoQ 1% YoY 1%

101% 91% 88%

99% 85% 81%

103% 98% 96%

96% 95% 100%

81% 85% 89%

107% 102% 113%

102% 100% 103%


93% 86% Polyolefins

100% 98% Olefins


80% 88% Polystyrenics

90% 107% Styrenics

104% 99% AromaticsAromaitcs &Styrenics

QoQ 45%

YoY 22% YoY 1%

494 505 522

1,539 1,532 263 295 301

850 904

62 55 56

187 175

819 855 879

2,576 2,611

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Other

Steam

Electricity

24

Power & Utility

9M20 U-Rate of Steam was 61%; 3%

9M20 U-Rate of Electricity was 70%; 1%

9M20 : Power & Utility revenue was 2,611 MB; 1% YoY

Utilization Rate

GIM

Revenue

QoQ 3%

YoY 7%

3Q20 U-Rate of Steam was 61%; 2% QoQ, 1% YoY

3Q20 U-Rate of Electricity was 70%; Stable QoQ, 3% YoY

YoY : decrease owing the utilization electricity from Floating Solar Project

3Q20 : Power & Utility revenue was 879 MB; 3% QoQ, 7% YoY

QoQ & YoY : increase owing to higher electricity sales vol. to EGAT &

higher steam sales volume to customers in industrial area

1.20 1.23 1.25 1.17

1.27

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Power &Utility

Unit : $/bbl

Unit : MB

73% 70% 70% 71% 70%

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Electricity

60% 63% 61% 61% 64%

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Steam

YoY 4%

QoQ 2%

YoY 9%

YoY 3%

QoQ - Unchanged

YoY 1%

YoY 1%

QoQ 2%

YoY 3% YoY 1%

2.10 1.29 (0.94)

1.46 (0.17)

1.33 1.28

1.67 1.21

1.55

3.43 2.57

0.73 2.67

1.38

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Refinery Lube Base

1.73 1.23 2.15 1.62 1.55

3.79 3.43 4.61

3.84 3.83

5.52 4.66 6.76

5.46 5.38

Aromatics&Styrenics Olefins

25

Market & Accounting Gross Integrated Margin3Q20: Improving A/C GIM resulted from huge net stock gain 9M20 : Lower Mkt GIM & net stock loss led to a decrease in A/C GIM

10.15 8.46 8.74 9.30 8.03

(2.14) (1.00)

4.87

(0.25) (2.98)(0.29)

1.17

1.80

0.18 1.20 7.72 8.63

15.41

9.23 6.25

Market GIM Stk G/(L) & LCM Hedging

3.43 2.57 0.73

2.67 1.38

5.52 4.66 6.76

5.46 5.38

1.20 1.23 1.25 1.17

1.27

10.15 8.46 8.74 9.30

8.03

Petroleum Petrochem Power & Utility

1,879 1,415 413 4,574 2,277

3,028 2,577 3,816

9,364 8,896

656 677 708

2,012 2,097

5,563 4,669 4,937

15,950 13,270

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

5,563 4,669 4,937

15,950 13,270

(1,172) (555)

2,752

(425) (4,937)(161)

644

1,018

303 1,985

4,230 4,758 8,707

15,828 10,318

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 9M19 9M20

Market GIM

Unit: $/bbl

Accounting GIM

Unit: $/bbl

Unit: MB

Market GIM by business

Unit: MB

YoY 14%

QoQ 3% YoY 14%

YoY 100%

YoY 32% QoQ 79%

YoY 11%

QoQ 6% YoY 17%

YoY 106% YoY 35% QoQ 83%

Unit: $/bblPetrochemical

Petroleum

Accounting GIM

3Q20 Acct GIM was $15.41/bbl,

QoQ: $6.78/bbl due to $6.50/bbl higher net stock gain and $0.28/bbl

higher of market GIM

YoY: $7.69/bbl due to $9.10/bbl higher net stock gain VS $1.41/bbl

lower market GIM

9M20 Acct GIM was $6.25/bbl,

YoY: $2.98/bbl due to $1.71/bbl higher net stock loss and $1.27/bbl

lower market GIM

Market GIM

3Q20 Market GIM was $8.74/bbl,

QoQ: $0.28/bbl due to higher petchem. Spread vs higher crude premium

YoY: $1.41/bbl due to lower products spread vs lower crude premium

9M20 Market GIM was $8.03/bbl,

YoY: $1.27/bbl due to lower products spread

26

Net Profit: 3Q20 VS 2Q20The positive performance derived from high stock gain

268

Net Loss 2Q20

Margin Net Stock gain

OPEX & Selling

Exp.

UnrealizedOil

Hedging


FX from

borrowing

Tax & Others

Net Profit3Q20


Net Income 479%(411) (1,556)

(1,095) (422)

Unit: MB

27

Net Profit: 9M20 VS 9M19Net Stock loss, loss on CCS and unrealized Oil hedging resulted in net loss

Net Gain 9M19

Margin Net Stock Loss

OPEX & Selling

Exp.

UnrealizedOil

Hedging


FXfrom

borrowing

Tax & Others

Net Loss 9M20


Net Income – n.a.661 (7,760)

(1,123) (3,335)

Unit: MB

28

Financial PositionHigher liquidity as a result of better performance

Debt ProfileStatements of Financial Position

Cash Flow

Remark: Long-term debt as at 30 Sep 2020

Unit: MB

PP&E(incl.

investment properties and ROU)

Other Non-CA

Cash

Other CurrentLiabilities

LT Borrowing incl. current port.

Shareholders’Equity

Sep. 2020Dec. 2019

Other CA

Other Non-CurrentLiabilities

Beginning Cash

1 Jan 2020

Ending Cash30 Sep 2020

Cash Flow from

Operating

Unit: MB

Cash Flow from

Investing

Cash Flow from

Financing

Net Debt = 54,350 MB

Ex. Rate = 31.83 Baht/$

Financial Ratios

177,850 181,507Interest Rate Currency

Float 65% THB 89%

Fixed 35% USD 11%

2%

0.69

0.880.73

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20

< 1.0x

Net IBD/Equity CA/CL

1.01

0.66

0.96

3Q19 2Q20 3Q20

Maturity of LT Debt

Plant

2021

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Pe

tro

leu

m

ADU1 13 13

ADU2 10 10

Hyvahl 30 30

RDCC 0

LUBE 0

Pe

tro

ch

em

ica

l

EBSM 45 45

HDPE 6 6 12

PP 13 13

ABS/SAN 14 14

PS 15 15

29

Maintenance Shutdown Plan 2021

12 november 2020 -...

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