121205 commodities outlook, lbbw
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December 2012 - Commodities - Page 1©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Commodities Outlook
Landesbank Baden-WürttembergDr. Frank SchallenbergerHead of Commodity Research
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 2©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
LBBW Commodities Funds – Overview.
§ Commodities exposure: 1,2 Billion EUR
§ Physical Funds: 18.09.2002 - GOLD Aureus Fund (480 Million EUR)23.05.2011 - SILVER - Argentum Fund (80 Million EUR)
§ Future based Funds: 19.05.2008 – LBBW Rohstoffe 1 Long Only (320 Million EUR)19.02.2010 – LBBW Rohstoffe 2 Long/Short (350 Million EUR)
§ Basics: UCITS IV - Live Funds Trackrecord 4 Y and 2 Y § Currencies: EUR, CHF, USD § Framework: German Investmentfunds / Distribution in D - A - CH § Management: Model based § Investors: Inst. Investores - Banks / Savings Banks / Insurance Companies
Pension Funds / Asset Manager
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 3©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
BRICs should be more dynamic in 2013.
Growth in % (Source: IMF)
9,2
8,2
4,94,3
7,26,8
6,0
3,83,7
1,5
4,0
2,7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2012e 2013e
China India Russia Brazil
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 4©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
China: Monetary Policy still with Options.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20124
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
CH RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO - BIG BANKSCH PRIME LENDING RATE (EP)(RECHTE SKALA)
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 5©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Gap between Brent and WTI still high.
D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Brent in USDWTI in USD
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 6©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Chinese Oil Imports reach Record Levels!
New Import Record (6 mbpd) in May 2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1.0
00.0
00
Bar
rel
per
Day
Chinese O il Production Chinese Oil Consumption
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 7©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
China: 1,3 Million new Cars every Month!
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
000'S
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
China Car Sales (in 1000 per Month)
000'S
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 8©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Natural Gas with bad Performance.
2010 2011 20121
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Natural Gas-Henry Hub $/MMBTU
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 9©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Natural Gas: Infrastructure with bright Future?
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Cheniere Energy in USD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 10©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Base Metals: Since 2011 Prices go down.
1.1.2011 = 100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N60
70
80
90
100
110
120
AluminiumZincLead
CopperNickel
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 11©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
China remains main Price Driver for Base Metals.
China‘s percentage Share of worldwide Consumption
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Copper Aluminium Zinc Lead Nickel
2010 2005 2000 1995 Source: Study Groups, IAI, WBMS, CRU, LBBW Commodity Research
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 12©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Precious Metals: Heterogeneous Development since 2011.
1.1.2011 = 100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
GoldSilverPlatinum
Palladium
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 13©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Gold: Mine Production with new Record.
2.000
2.100
2.200
2.300
2.400
2.500
2.600
2.700
2.800
2.900
3.000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
2.000
2.100
2.200
2.300
2.400
2.500
2.600
2.700
2.800
2.900
3.000
Quelle: LBBW Research, World Gold Council, GFMS
Output of Goldmines in Tons p.a.
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 14©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Gold Demand in India is weakening.
in Tons per Quarter
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
China IndienQuellen: WGC, GFMS, LBBW
Commodity Research
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 15©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Central Banks changed their Mind about Gold.
Central Banks Selling (-) and Buying (+) Gold in Tons per Year
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
6002001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012e
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Quellen: LBBW Commodity Research, Notenbanken, WGC
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 16©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Agriculture: Corn, Wheat & Co. rallied this Summer.
1.1.2011 = 100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
CornCoffeeSoybeans
CocoaWheatSugar
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 17©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
In the long Run: Oil since 1970.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Brent in USD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 18©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
In the long Run: Oil, Gold and Wheat since 1970.
1.1.1970 = 100
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Gold in USDBrent in USDWheat in USD
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 19©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Commodities are not Commodities Stocks!
Exxon and Oil; 1.1.2009 = 100
2009 2010 2011 201250
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
EXXON MOBILCrude Oil-Brent Cur. Month FOB U$/BBL
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 20©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Important for Investors: Beware of Contango!
Roll Losses in the DJUBS Index since 2006: Almost 100 Percentage Points !!!
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201240
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
DJ UBS- Commodity Ind ER - EXCESS RETURNDJ UBS-Spot Commodity Index - PRICE INDEX
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 21©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
LBBW Top Ten with Outperformance since 2009.
Excess Return Indices; 1.1.2009 = 100
2009 2010 2011 201260
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
LBBW Top 10 Index in USDRICI-Index in USDTR/JCRB-Index in USD
DJ/UBS Index in USDGSCI-Index in USD
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 22©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
LBBW Long/Short: The Index started in August 2009.
Performance since August 2009: ca. 32 %
2009 2010 2011 201295
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
LBBW Long/Short Index
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 23©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
LBBW Rohstoffe 1+2 – Technical Data.
§ LBBW Rohstoffe 1 (Long Only):Institutional: DE000A0MU8J9, Retail: DE000A0NAUG6UCITS-IVSales and Distribution in Germany, Austria, SwitzerlandLaunch Date: 19.5.2008Volume: 320 Mio. �€Currencies: EUR, USD, SFR
§ LBBW Rohstoffe 2 (Long/Short):Institutional: DE000A0X97E0, Retail: DE000A1H7276UCITS-IVSales and Distribution in Germany, Austria, SwitzerlandLaunch Date: 19.2.2010Volume: 350 Mio. �€Currencies: EUR, USD, SFR
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 24©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
Thank you very much for your
Attention!
December 2012 - Commodities - Page 25©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
This document does not take account of an investor’s personal circumstances, does not contain any offer that is binding under civil law and does not constitute investment advice. Your personal contact will provide you with more detailed information.LBBW does not accept any liability for the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or the result obtained from the use of such information. The information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. LBBW can not verify such information, however, and because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by the sources, LBBW or others, no representation is made that the information contained in this document is accurate in all material respects or complete. Only the conclusion of a trade, which normally takes place by telephone, is legally relevant for a purchase. To the extent that the product is subject to prospectus requirements under the Securities Prospectus Act (Wertpapierprospektgesetz ) or the Investment Act (Investmentgesetz), you will receive the relevant prospectuses from your personal contact.If the products are from third parties, we draw attention to the fact that LBBW may receive brokerage fees and/or sales commission for distributing these products.Prior to any investment decision investors should consult with their personal financial and tax advisor.To the extent that this document refers to tax effects, we draw attention to the fact that the concrete tax repercussions depend on the personal circumstances of the corresponding investor and may change in the future.Investors should note that the products are only available to persons in certain jurisdictions. Any Investor is responsible for satisfying himself that he is subject to no legal restrictions under any relevant laws.This document is protected by copyright. It is not permitted to pass it on to third parties without the prior written consent of LBBW.
Editor: Landesbank Baden-Württemberg
4113 Commodity Research
Am Hauptbahnhof 2
70173 Stuttgart/Germany
Sources:
Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, LBBW Research
Finished: 30.11.2012
Please note: