150828 valuengine weekly: materials stocks,apple,the fed,and market neutral strategy resultsve...

8/20/2019 150828 ValuEngine Weekly: Materials Stocks,Apple,the Fed,and Market Neutral Strategy ResultsVe Weekly News

1/9

August 28, 2015

If you no longer wish to receive this free newsletter, CLICK HERE to unsubscribe

The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach toinvesting and the tools available from In today's fast-moving and globalied financial markets! it is easy to

get overloaded with information" The winners will adopt an ob#ective! scientific! independent andunemotional approach to investing" If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service!

sign up now for a two-week free trial at www"valuengine"com$

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 41!"# o$ ourstocks ass%&ned a valuat%on and 1'!(# o$ t)ose e*u%t%es are calculated to+e overvalued +, !-# or more .our sectors are calculated to +eovervalued//w%t) one at or near dou+le d%&%ts

MARKET OVERVIEW

Inde0 tarted week .r%da, A2 C)an&e C)an&e # ,td

3IA %&()"*( %&&%+"( 156(5 -7"# /"("#

NA3A8 ,(%"&% +%%"& 457"5 1-5"# 1(7#

9ULL !--- %%%)"*& %%("(( '4(7 '11# /41"#

;< 5-- %)&("%( %)+&") !1(7 111# /'5-#

ummar, o$ V tock Un%verse

tocks Undervalued 56(4#

tocks Overvalued 41!"#

tocks Undervalued +, !-# !'66#

tocks Overvalued +, !-# 1'4(#

http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?em=email_addresshttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/http://www.valuengine.com/https://www.facebook.com/pages/ValuEngine-Inc/111602408163http://twitter.com/ValuEnginehttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=24http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe?em=email_addresshttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33http://www.valuengine.com/http://www.valuengine.com/pub/main?p=33


2/9

SECTOR OVERVIEW

ector C)an&e 2T3 =T3 Valuat%on Last 1!/2

9eturn

9at%oAerospace %"**. -&")+. -"/. )"+%. overvalued -*",. /"*

Auto/T%res/Trucks %"((. -&")&. -+",. )"(). undervalued -%"&&. %"*

?as%c 2ater%als ,". -"). -%(",. %+")&. undervalued -,*"//. /"/

?us%ness erv%ces %"((. -("&&. -/")). %"+(. overvalued -&"*,. ")&

Computer and Tec)nolo&, %")%. -"(*. -"&%. ",,. undervalued -+"%*. +"+

Construct%on "/+. -("&. -"+,. +",(. undervalued -("*/. "+

Consumer 3%scret%onar, %"+. -(". %". /"+. undervalued -*"%. &")+

Consumer taples %",. -("+,. -",(. ,"(*. overvalued -("),. %"*

.%nance %"%. -"(. -"/. "((. undervalued -("/. %*

Industr%al


3/9

Top/.%ve ?as%c 2ater%als ector tocks//Lon&/Term .orecast 9eturns

T%cker Compan, Name 2arket E0T@19 281: *"/* *"). %/".

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know,ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a

variety of portfolio screening and creation tools

If you are reading this you should sign up for

ValuEngine!s award"winning

stock valuation and forecast service

#$ $%&I'()I$#, *+ (- F.EE ).I(&/

To %&n Up $or a

.9 T9IAL


4/9

"ree #o$%loa& 'or Rea&ers (s a 0onus to our Free Weekly #ewsletter su0scri0ers,

we are offering a F.EE $W#&$( of one of our Stock .eports

pple %nc# &'() is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing

mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digitalmusic players# The *ompany+s products and services include i'hone, i'ad, Mac, i'od,pple T, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iS and

Mac S . operating systems, i*loud, and a range of accessory, service and supportofferings# %t sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, itsdirect sales force, third-party wholesalers, and resellers# pple %nc# is head/uartered in

*upertino, *alifornia#

alu0ngine continues its B12 recommendation on ''(0 %* for 4"!5-"6-47#

Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that''(0 %* has the probability to 1T'0898M average market performance for thene:t year# The company e:hibits TT8*T%0 *ompany Si;e and Sharpe 8atio#

.ead our 1omplete etailed Valuation .eport on (PP&E H9

http://www.valuengine.com/download/report/TMP_VE_AAPL_20150828037236.pdfhttp://www.valuengine.com/images/newsletter/weekly/150828AAPLchart.ashxhttp://www.valuengine.com/download/report/TMP_VE_AAPL_20150828037236.pdf


5/9

ValuEngine Forecast

Target

'rice<

0:pected

8eturn

1-onth !!=#"5 !#"">

!-onth !!=#?" !#75>

"-onth !!@#@! 3#4@>

1-#ear !4@#== !!#?6>

$-#ear !4"#75 @#?=>

!-#ear ?7#"? -!=#"4>

Valuation % Ran&ingsValuation 3#43> undervalued Valuation Ran& &A) =6

1- Forecast Return !#""> 1- Forecast Return Ran& ?7

1$- Return !"#5@> o'entu' Ran& &A) 6"

(har)e Ratio "#?? (har)e Ratio Ran& &A) ?3

*-# +vg +nnual Return 43#66> *-# +vg +nnual Rtn Ran& ?4

Volatility 4=#"?> Volatility Ran& &A) @7

E)ecte E.( /rowth 6#!7> E.( /rowth Ran& &A) =!

ar&et Ca) 0billions @57#73 (i2e Ran& !""

3railing .4E Ratio !4#6! 3railing .4E Ran& &A) 6!

Forwar .4E Ratio !!#6= Forwar .4E Ratio Ran& 74.E/ Ratio !#57 .E/ Ratio Ran& 4?

.rice4(ales 4#?3 .rice4(ales Ran& &A) 3!

ar&et45oo& 5#@3 ar&et45oo& Ran& &A) 4!

5eta "#6? 5eta Ran& 5"

+l)ha "#!@ +l)ha Ran& 6=

http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/charts/pricerating_jpg/AAPL.jpghttp://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#http://www.valuengine.com/ve/ValuationSummary#


6/9

W(at)s *ot

Market +rat!o%s I-.act /ote%t!al "E# Act!o%

This week+s trading action has unsettled markets and investors, but it may haveled to at least one positive outcome for stocks# t a briefing today for regional

economic conditions, ew 2ork 9ed Bank *hair--and 9M* member-- illiam Cudleytold reporters that Dat this moment, the decision to begin the normali;ation process atthe September E9M*F meeting seems less compelling to me than it did several

weeks ago# But normali;ation could become more compelling by the time of themeeting as we get additional information#G

That statement is definitely of the Dtea-leaves needing to be readD variety, but it

indicates that 1S markets should continue to trade under the benefit of the 9ed+s;ero-interest rate policy &H%8') for a while longer# 1S short-term rates have hoverednear "> for most of the past seven years now# This policy provided the only real boost

for the 1S economy as the fiscal options, controlled by politicians in ashington C*,were focused on austerity in lieu of a robust stimulus program#

%t would seem /uite premature to raise rates under the present circumstances,

and with the 9ed still responsible for a dual mandate--low inflation C fullemployment--it appears cooler heads will prevail thanks to the DrealityD provided by

*hina and the global market pull back# Cudley referenced this in his remarks bynoting that Iincoming data suggest the economy continues to grow at a moderatepace sufficient to cause a gradual tightening of the 1#S# labor marketG but

Iinternational developments have increased the downside risk to 1#S# economicgrowth#G

gain, as we have been noting for a while now, the 1S economy is recovering,

and we see some pressures within the labor market--as evidenced by changes inemployment practices on the part of al-Mart, McConald+s et al# e also see a low

level of inflation--bolstered by the cratering of oil and other commodities pricing#Stocks, despite their recent gyrations, remain the only game in town where

yields are concerned# e recommend investors with the means to weather this storm

stay the course# e do not foresee a long-term issue for the 1S economy here, andwe note that selling at the bottom of a down turn is often the worst move one canmake# n the other hand, this is a time to tighten up those stop-losses and to stay


7/9

attentive#

VE "orecast Market eutral /ort'ol!o S(rugs O''

C(!%a Tur-o!l, /osts !g +a!%

%t was another great result for the ValuEngine Forecast 1" ar&et 6eutral(trategy .ortfolio# Julyugust was a terrific month as volatility and *hina-driven

market sell off powered-up our short side# e posted a gain of 7#3!> and beat boththe S'5"" loss of @#"3> and the M(S. loss of !#!7># That+s a beat of 6=6 bps on the

M(S. and a whopping !3== bps to the SK' 5""L

The modified stop-lossed strategy with a suggested @"-=" allocation trailed thestandard market neutral allocation with a gain of =#@3># The trailing !4 monthpercentage return is =4#?@> for the newsletter and 5#==> for the M(S. (ong-Short

9undand -"#"5> for the S'5""# Since inception, our portfolio has returned !5?#@6> vsthe M(S. return of 3"#"5>#

This month demonstrated yet again the benefit of the market neutralapproach# ur shorts were ama;ing with massive pick ups for many selections# Ten ofsi:teen picks posted double-digit gains with several positions returning in e:cess of

="># (ongsas is to be e:pected given the market action this month-- were prettymuch a wash across the board with the e:ception of et !, 'NK0, and CouglasCynamic#

aluations have declined significantly and are looking oversold# 36#55> of thestocks we can assign a valuation are calculated to be overvalued-- with !!#?5> ofthem calculated to be overvalued by 4"> or more# s we have been saying for a

while now, we remain confident that the underlying 1S economy is strong-- andgetting stronger# Oowever, we live in an interconnected world and *hina has a cold#Time to tighten up those stop-losses#

Find $ut More (0out the VE Forecast *2 M#S Portfolio 3E.E

Please click 3E.E to su0scri0e -ou may download a sample copy 3E.E

http://www.valuengine.com/nl/NLPerformance?p=Fhttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/NLPerformance?p=Fhttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/NLPerformance?p=Fhttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/download/newsletter/150824FCSTMNSFINAL_0920152408559.pdfhttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/NLPerformance?p=Fhttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/NLPerformance?p=Fhttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/download/newsletter/150824FCSTMNSFINAL_0920152408559.pdfhttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/NLPerformance?p=F


8/9

Oere are the primary long and short-side selections and their performance for themonth#

L3I-FI6ELI6E !6#74 !7#6! -:9@1 -89?"*M'1T08S

T0*O(N2

Long 1 5AH 5E+AER H7E( !?#?4 !7#"= -$9?? -1898" *ST81*T%

Long 1 (3RA+ (3+RA-LI5 C+.-+ ==#6@ 3@#6@ -?9:: -1;9?!*S1M08

C%S*80T%82

Long 1 C+L C+L-+I6E F77=( 53#5? =?#@7 -!9@! -;9!! *S1M08 ST'(0S

Long 1 HR3/ HERI3+/E I6(>R 45#!? !6#3@ -"9?! -$;911 9%*0

Long 1 >E.( 6E3 1 >E.( 3ECH !6#=? !?#?6 198@ ?9:" %C1ST8%( '8C1*TLong 1 6L6K 6E 7#7! 7#=4 :9$@ !9;" M0C%*(

(hort 1 C7=I C7.+(( =IVER(F !@#=@3@ !@#3 :91" :9@@M1(T%-S0*T8

*N(M

(hort 1 53> .E+57=# E6ER/# !#@7 !#76 -:911 -"9*@ %(S 008N2

(hort 1 (HL= (E+R( HL=/ C. 43#@6 44#@= 19:8 89!@ 80T%( O(0S(0

(hort 1 =(B =I+6+ (HI..I6/ 7#@! 7#! :9*1 "9;: T8S'8TT%

(hort 1 CL6E CLE+6 E/# F>EL( @#!@ =#"4 $918 !89;8 1T%(%T%0S

.7R3F7LI7 373+L ;9!1

/(.C (%.*:: 4"??#@ !?7"#6? -!46#7! -"91!

L76/ .7R3F7LI7 -?9?*

(H7R3 .7R3F7LI7 1"91"


9/9

Find $ut More (0out the VE Forecast *2 M#S 3E.E

ValuEnginecom is an independent research provider, producing 0uy4hold4sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 5,666 7S and 1anadian e8uities

every trading dayVisit our we0site for more information and a free trial
http://www.valuengine.com/nl/NLPerformance?p=Fhttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/NLPerformance?p=Fhttp://www.valuengine.com/pub/VeSubscribeInfo

150828 valuengine weekly: materials stocks,apple,the fed,and market neutral strategy resultsve...

Documents