17aprilproppulsevaluesoverquarters2013

7/28/2019 17AprilPropPulseValuesoverquarters2013

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-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

1

9 9 6 - Q 1

1

9 9 7 - Q 1

1

9 9 8 - Q 1

1

9 9 9 - Q 1

2

0 0 0 - Q 1

2

0 0 1 - Q 1

2

0 0 2 - Q 1

2

0 0 3 - Q 1

2

0 0 4 - Q 1

2

0 0 5 - Q 1

2

0 0 6 - Q 1

2

0 0 7 - Q 1

2

0 0 8 - Q 1

2

0 0 9 - Q 1

2

0 1 0 - Q 1

2

0 1 1 - Q 1

2

0 1 2 - Q 1

2

0 1 3 - Q 1

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1 9 9 6 - Q 1

1 9 9 7 - Q 1

1 9 9 8 - Q 1

1 9 9 9 - Q 1

2 0 0 0 - Q 1

2 0 0 1 - Q 1

2 0 0 2 - Q 1

2 0 0 3 - Q 1

2 0 0 4 - Q 1

2 0 0 5 - Q 1

2 0 0 6 - Q 1

2 0 0 7 - Q 1

2 0 0 8 - Q 1

2 0 0 9 - Q 1

2 0 1 0 - Q 1

2 0 1 1 - Q 1

2 0 1 2 - Q 1

2 0 1 3 - Q 1

r Kusher noted that the high seasonal nature of the market suggests that

e 2.8 per cent value growth recorded over the first quarter of 2013 is

likely to be maintained throughout the remainder of the year.

the growth rate continued at this level for the remainder of the calendar

ar, it would represent a rise in capital city dwelling values of 11.2 per

nt. However, if history is anything to go by, this rate is unlikely to

ntinue.”

s important to remember that Australia’s national housing market is

ghly seasonal with values seeing a greater level of quarterly growth over

e first and third quarters of the year and with growth typically lower over

e second and final quarters.

etween 1996 and 2012, the first quarter recorded the strongest rate of

pital appreciation in dwelling values across 10 of the 17 years. In each

stance, and where the 1st quarter of the year had not recorded the

rongest value growth, it was the 3rd quarter which recorded the greatest

lue growth. The results highlight the significant impact of seasonality on

e change in capital city home values,” Mr Kusher said.

rther analysis of the today’s results show that the 2nd quarter of the year

corded the weakest capital growth conditions on four occasions over the

riod. On all other occasions, the 4th quarter experienced the lowest

owth in values (note over the past two years Q2 and Q4 have recorded

entical levels of value growth).

cross the period for which the analysis has been undertaken, the 2nd and

quarters never recorded a greater increase in value than that of the 1st

arter. Once again, Mr Kusher said that the results re-iterate the high

vel of seasonality within the housing market and the fact that growth

vels over the first quarter of the year won’t necessarily be reflective of the

rformance over the remainder of the year.

lthough seasonality does have an impact on the performance of home

lues, the housing market does not sit in isolation to the rest of the

onomy. As we know, economic conditions can, and do change rapidly.

hen these come into play, we often see a significant impact on the

using market despite conditions being typically stronger over the first

d third quarters and weaker over the second and final quarters.

ortgage rates, unemployment, housing finance commitments, retail

ade and consumer sentiment also play a large part in determining the

rection of home values and whether or not consumers are prepared to

y and sell their homes,” Mr Kusher said.

conclusion, although today’s results confirm that capital growth across

e housing market experienced a strong start to 2013; Mr Kusher said that

e should not expect the same rate of growth to be carried throughout the

mainder of the year. Testament to this is the March 2013 RP Data-

smark Daily Home Value Index which provides evidence that home

lues across the five major capital cities fell by -0.1 per cent over the first

een days of April despite the strong capital growth conditions

perienced recently.

he housing market is likely to continue along a recovery path, however,

e anticipate slower capital growth conditions throughout the remainder of

13 than those which have been recorded over the first quarter of the

ar,” Mr Kusher said.

First quarter is typically the top performer or the first quarter of every year spanning the past 17 years from the period 1996, the year RP Data started this data

ollection, to 2012, property growth has experienced the strongest rates of capital appreciation during this time frame on ten

ccasions according to RP Data research analyst Cameron Kusher.

DISCLAIMER In compiling this publication, rpdata.com has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources and RP Data does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. To the f ull extent allowed by law RP Data

excludes all liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of any part of the information in this publication. RP Data recommends that individuals undertaketheir own research and seek independent financial advice before making any decisions. © 2012 RP Data Ltd.

Quarterly change in capital city home values

Q1-1996 to Q1-2013 (raw figures)*

Strongest and weakest value growth quarters over

time across the combined capital cities (raw)

Source: rpdata, rpdata-Rismark Home Value Index

Year Strongest growth qtr Weakest growth qtr

1996 Q1 Q2

1997 Q3 Q4

1998 Q1 Q2

1999 Q3 Q4

2000 Q1 Q4

2001 Q3 Q4

2002 Q1 Q4

2003 Q3 Q4

2004 Q1 Q4

2005 Q1 Q4

2006 Q1 Q4

2007 Q3 Q4

2008 Q1 Q4

2009 Q3 Q4

2010 Q1 Q4

2011 Q1 Q2/Q42012 Q3 Q2/Q4


Quarterly change in capital city home values

Q1-1996 to Q1-2013 (seasonally adjusted figures)*


*Indicates Q1

*Indicates Q1

National Media ReleaseP Data Weekly Property Pulse eleased: Wednesday 17 April 2013

17aprilproppulsevaluesoverquarters2013

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