Synthesis sessionDerek Baker and Dolapo Enahoro

5-6 November 2013, Accra, Ghana

Mainstreaming Livestock Value ChainsBringing the research to bear on Impact Assessment,

Policy Analysis and Advocacy for development

Outline

1. Conference objectives

2. Material presented

3. Messages on livestock-for development

4. Messages passed between model builders and model users

5. Conclusions

6. Next steps

Goals of conference

1. To establish strong and functional linkages between livestock value chain and impact analysis on the one hand, and sectoral, general equilibrium, and other economic modeling on the other.

2. To identify and advocate pro-poor livestock policy as it emerges from existing analysis.

Livestock in development

1. Growing demand2. Livestock-poverty nexus3. Resource and environment user4. Livestock’s actual and potential development contribution5. Livestock overlooked by policy objectives/interventions

6. Connections to markets can be obscure, with many non-price drivers7. Markets may be incomplete:

• Whole chain approaches (vertical) • Collective action (horizontal) approaches• Household modeling is complex

8. African livestock are increasingly in mixed systems, with implications for risk mitigation

9. Opportunities for gender equity10.Export trade remains an elusive goal, dev. country trade integration

has been little studied/poorly addressed in models11.For all the above, we are short on data12.A call for networks amongst agents, researchers and policy makers

10 problems…

1 There is a gap between household analysis and models of the higher-level economy

2 Livestock analysis has too much focus on productivity and not enough on profitability and incomes

3 No-one knows what the returns to a government investment in livestock are

4 Policymakers are less informed about livestock than about crops

5 All stages of the policy cycle are poorly informed about livestock

6 Livestock's market linkages and producer organisations lack commitment and sustainability

7 Available credit is not suited to livestock producers

8 Livestock data and information are unsuited to its uses by public and private sector

9 There is too little consideration given to livestock/environment interactions

10 Training and education is lacking for livestock producers

Session 1 synthesis – VCs and smallholder competitiveness

Solution Policy changes needed Who needs to act Information and analysis Who needs to act 1) Collective action 2) Diversification 3) Development of feed

systems and market, VA

4) Develop the marketing channels

5) Early warning and surveillance systems

6) Improving infrastructure

7) Crop-livestock integration

8) Preserving livestock mobility

9) Upgrading and modernization of informal sector to reduce transaction costs

10) Distribution of crossbred technology

11) Land enclosures for grazing

12) Regional trade integration

13) Redistribution of VA

1) Price formation mechanisms

2) Resource tenure 3) Diverse export

markets 4) Product demand

stimulation 5) Collective action 6) Vertical platforms

and arrangements 7) Breeding policy for

resilience 8) Develop missing

markets 9) Harmonisation of

trade restrictions 10) Securing input

supply 11) Price regulation 12) Disease control 13) Education of farmers 14) Expansion of animal

health facilities 15) Cold-chain

development 16) Regional approach

to drought mitigation

17) Alternative mechanisms for vet service provision

1) Local and national government

2) Farmers 3) Local

governments 4) Private sector… 5) Market

oriented organizations

1) Product/quality standards 2) Consumer preferences 3) Efficiency in processing 4) Share of price and other VC

performance measures 5) Information platforms 6) assessment of interventions and

policies: a. ex ante b. ex post 7) Climate/weather forecast 8) Market information (output and

input) 9) Disease information 10) Analysis of: a. marketing channel options/choice b. collective action options c. public/private partnership d. feed input alternatives related to

the drought cycles e. VC interventions f. Platforms g. Financing options 11) Production costs, transaction costs,

added value, threats (land, feed market, sanitary, climate), and prices

12) Animal inventory/census 13) WTP for access to resources 14) Identification of disease priorities

1) Extension and supporting agencies

2) Climate specialists Producer groups

3) Govt 4) NGOs 5) Private sector 6) Aid actors 7) Input and service

providers 8) Researchers 9) Joint ventures

amongst VC actors.

Session 2 synthesis – gender and VCs

Solution Policy changes needed Who needs to act Information and analysis Who needs to act 1) Whole-chain package of

interventions: a. Groups b. Training c. Capacity building d. Service provision e. Marketing

2) Credit 3) Starter packs 4) Address to women’s issues via

women’s groups, and women’s networks

5) Recognition of need to link women to markets

6) Inclusion of women in policy dialogues

1) Credit to be channelled to women

2) Land tenure change to be more inclusive of women

3) Interventions to address households rather than land-based identifiers

4) Women’s asset ownership identified and protected

5) Empowerment of women through training, especially in livestock systems and animal health

6) Training of women guides

1) Government credit agencies

2) Legal property registers

3) Veterinary schools

1) Identify Impact pathway for gender.

2) Understand entry points for gender-oriented interventions

3) Use appropriate gender-sensitive data

4) Better methods for measurement of income and other changes for women

5) Analysis of women’s benefits from livestock, especially after intensification

6) Methodologies for data collection on gender

7) Data sharing 8) Gender-related HH

and VC performance measures

9) Evaluation of adherence to Maputo declaration under the CAADP, on gender

1) Research and data networks

Session 3 synthesis – Regional LS development and policy

Solution Policy changes needed Who needs to act Information and analysis Who needs to act 1) Improved data reaching whole value chain definitions and

standardisation quality and timeliness coverage of informal trade more focus on trade details 2) Data sharing 3) Analysis of impact of trade

barriers/liberalisation 4) Co-ordinated livestock policy

including breeding and feeding

5) Apply and use global standards

6) Engage private sector, in trade organisations

7) Harmonised performance measures

1) Capacity development

2) Knowledge transfer 3) Promotion of intra-

regional trade 4) Harmonisation of

regional policies 5) Focus on less

sophisticated markets

6) Strengthen data collection/processing institutions at national and regional level

7) A branding policy, accompanied by quality management

1) Universities 2) Research institutes 3) Farmer associations 4) Dept Vet Services 5) Regional bodies &

organisation 6) Government 7) National

organisations 8) On trade

engagement: full range of partners

9) Regional Economic Communities/ policy branches

10) Public-private partnerships

1) Methods development

2) Analysis of investment opportunities

3) Measurement of hidden costs of exports to high value markets

4) Identification of key factors affecting competitiveness

5) Quantify production and trade information in relevant countries

6) Make information available

7) Simulation of trade scenarios

8) Information on producing and processing technologies in the region

9) Measurement of transaction costs

1) Researchers 2) Networks 3) Data generators 4) Line Ministries 5) Universities 6) Trade and industry

organisations

Sessions 4 and 5 synthesis – modeling initiatives for policy

2. The questions• Who cares?• Who evaluates?• Can you include environment?• Can you do investment analysis?• Can you examine the effect of

timing/sequencing of investments on investment result?

• Are household decisions represented at aggregate?

• Can you model intermediate markets?• Can you predict the future?

1. The presentations• Detail of households (credit model)• Detail of inter-sectoral interactions (CGE

model)• Detail of inter-market interactions +

production system characteristics (multimarket model)

• Physical/Landscape environment upward aggregation

• Physical//climate change on supply side

3. The answers• Audience may be in research rather than

policy and private sector • Need for more modeler-user-non-user

communications• Inclusion of new sectors/countries/problems

requires new data and its compilation• There is purpose-specificity (e.g. disease vs

climate change) and interactions are difficult to introduce.

• Investment analysis at aggregate level may not match household level

• Incomplete markets can be handled at HH level but not by models relying on market simulation solutions

• HH decisions not invoked… (aggregation: multiple livestock species; separability: nature of HH; ABM?; demand is simplistic)

• Intermediate VC actors largely exogenous: IMPACT3 has “activities”.

• There is a lot of work in progress (incl. micro-macro), much of it not presented here.

Conclusions

1. Livestock’s place in economies and development processes is widely acknowledged, largely underestimated… and correcting this is a work in progress

2. Representation of production and consumption is strong3. Linkage to land and landscapes is strong4. Dev. country competitiveness and trade/trade integration has not yet been modeled5. Incomplete markets present difficulties for modeling: e.g. land tenure. 6. Production-system approach has served well7. Contradictions persist: mobility/crop-livestock; sales vs risk management; formalisation

of markets.8. Many perceived policy needs surround VC intermediaries: not generally modelled 9. Great demand for tools and data for ex ante and ex post analysis10. Perceived need for capacity building, but few ways of modeling the changes11. Little capacity to measure VC performance: financial, environmental, gender, equity12. Improvement/extension of models relies on the thing that is most lacking, and most

poorly supported – data13. Whole-chain interventions are widely advocated but little modeled14. Collective action is widely advocated, based on transaction costs: which generally are

not being measured nor used in models

Next steps

Special Issue of journal (decision due Nov 2013) (May 2014)

Other journal output (May 2014)

Presentations on PIM website (Nov 2013)

Report with recommendations to PIM modeling effort for livestock (Dec 2013)

Formulation of PIM IA and M&E tools (2014)

Contr. to PIM VC performance measures (2014)

Supply of gender performance measures and gender variables (2014)

Supply of transactions costs for Vertical and Horizontal organisation (2014)

Feedback to BMGF’s Livestock Data initiative (2013)

Commence liaison and communication between ILRI, livestock modeling initiatives, and others (now)

And…