1973-10-13 central intelligence bulletin: arab states-israel

7/29/2019 1973-10-13 Central Intelligence Bulletin: Arab States-Israel

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EO 13526 3.3(b)(1)>25Yrs Approved for Release: 2012/09/04EO 13526 3.3(b)(6)>25YrsEO 13526 3.5(c)

APPROVED FOR RELEASE - CIA INFO DATE: 29-Aug-2012

- ARAB 'STATES ISRAEL: The Israelis are makinghard-won advances in the Golan Heights and in theirefforts to penetrate into Syria. There is littleaction in the Sinai.Heavy fighting on the Golan Heights died-downlast night with Israeli forces about 12 miles beyondthe cease-fire line, but unable to achieve.a decisivebreakthrough on the road to Damascus. In the south-ern sector of the Heights, the Syrians claim to havemade advances, and may have overrun a UN observationpost early yesterday. The area was relatively quietlater in the day, however, with indications that theIsraelis may have retaken the post and were slightlybeyond the cease-fire line. The Syrians are report-edly withdrawing tank units from the front and deploy-ing them to a second defense line nearer Damascus.For the first time, Damascus has acknowledged pub-licly that Israeli troops have made progress on the"war's northern front." In air activity, the Israelismade over 400 sorties yesterday, making it the heav-

iest day of the war. Despite this intense activityand their own heavy losses in dogfights, the Syrianscontinued throughout most of the day to fly ground=support.missions.Activity on the Sinai front yesterday was lim-ited to artillery exchanges and a reduced number ofIsraeli air strikes. Neither side claimed signifi-

cant advances, and neither suffered serious losses.Early yesterday the Israelis charged that the Egyp-tians had moved four SAM batteries to the east sideof the canal, but today they reported that

they had determinedthat the resumed SAMs were dummies.the Egyptians mounted helicopter as-

saults at three points on the Sinai coast, includingAbu Rudesis, where a limited number of Egyptian troopsand a helicopter pilot were captured. |Soviet experts have reviewedthree areas--Port Said, Ismailia, and Dumyat--to de-

cide on the positioning of surface-to-surface mis- isiles.

(continued)

13 Oct 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin 1

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Approved for Release: 2012/09/04FOR RELEASE - CIA INFOO DATE: 29-Aug-2012

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Approved for Release: 2012/09/04FOR RELEASE - CIA INFOO DATE: 29-Aug-2012-TOP-3ECRET|

(After a week's fighting, Israeli losses areestimated at 100-105 aircraft, 650-700 tanks, asmany as 4 ships, and 2,700-3,200 men. Arab lossesare estimated at 210-220 aircraft, 950-1,000 tanks,20-25 ships, and 12,600-15,600 men. Supply problemsappear most acute for the Israelis; pilots yesterdaywere instructed to conserve both fuel and ordnance.

The movement to Syria of a Jordanian brigadethat was scheduled for tonight reportedly has beenpostponed until Sunday night, when it is to take upa position between Dar'a and Shaykh Miskin. However,there may be further delays because of opposition tothe move from high-level government figures. Thesecritics fear that the brigade may be chewed up beforeit ever arrives, and question why Jordan's forceshould move before those of such other conservativeArab states as Saudi Arabia. For his part, KingHusayn reported still intends to commit the Jor-danian unit.

Fatah, the largest fedayeen organization, may bepreparing to g~ien mrcnolitrssi he- Middle East.I the attacks will comeif the US supplies Israe wi aircraft or involvesthe Sixth Fleet in the current hostilities.- In otherfedayeen actions, the Palestine Liberation Organiza-tion last night accused Jordan of "actual coordina-tion" with Israel, .and called on soldiers of the Jor-danian Army .to fight Israel even if it meant the down-fall of King Husayn. The fedayeen themselves continueto carry out minor operations against Israel. As of11 October, all of Fatah's principal military command-ers were in southern Lebanon, and the Fatah commandhad infiltrated 55 commandos across the border intoIsraelIThe_Soviet Ambassador to Lebanon,has counse edFatah chief Yasir Arafat and PopuJar Front for the

13 Oct 73 Central Intelligence Bulletin. 2

TO -ISELERRET .



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Approved for Release: 2012/09/04FOR RELEASE - CIA INFOO DATE: 29-Aug-2012'-TOP SERE

CLiberation of Palestine head Habbash that they shouldavoid provocative acts for the present, but be pre-pared to enter the fray immediately if Lebanon becomesembroiled in the fighting with Israel.

Muhammad Haykal, chief editor of -the authoritativeEgyptian newspaper Al Ahram, has joined in the callfor using oil as a weapon to bring pressure againstthe US. Reacting to news reports that senior US of-ficials were about to make decisions to help Israelmilitarily, Haykal warned in an Al Ahram article that- Arab oil producers have the powerto a"ny the USaccess to its interests in the Middle East." Reportsfrom both Cairo and Kuwait indicate that anti-Americanfeeling is growing among the general population largely inresponse to quasi-official media attacks on the US.




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Approved for Release: 2012/09/04APPROVED FOR RELEASE - CIA INFOO DATE: 29-Aug-2012

.USSR - US - MIDDLE EAST: The Soviets are usingdiscussions with US officials to create the impressionthat.the Arab-Israeli war should not be allowed to in-terfere with the "larger picture" of Soviet-US detente.

The Soviet for example,that it was im-portant ror the two superpowers to remain friends andnot permit the Arab-Israeli war to alter the relation-ship developed over the past year. Soviet

took a similar linewit their US counterparts the same day, indicatingthat the Soviets have used a circular diplomatic mes-sage to instruct their representatives along theselines. The Soviet said that bothsides would be obliged to resupply their allies withwar materiel, but that this should not affect rela-tions between the US and USSR. The Soviets are alsoquerying US officials on the possible nature of theUS effort in behalf of Israel, including the possibleintroduction of US military personnel and the resupplyof F-4 Phantom fighter aircraft.

A carefully worded TASS statement of 12 Octoberthat protested Israeli attacks on the Soviet CulturalCenter in Damascus and a Soviet merchant vessel in aSyrian port testifies to Moscow's concern over possi-ble sources of pressure on the USSR to increase itsown involvement. The statement noted that the "Sovietpeople" (not the Soviet Government) strongly condemnedIsraeli bombing of civilian targets; .a TASS statementis of course less authoritative than a govermental one.TASS warned, however, that the USSR cannot regard Is-raeli actions "indifferently" and that Israel's con-tinued failure to observe international law "willlead to grave consequences."

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Approved for Release: 2012/09/04APPROVED FOR RELEASE - CIA INFOO DATE: 29-Aug-2012

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Approved for Release: 2012/09/04FOR RELEASE - CIA INFO DATE: 29-Aug-2012]

USSR - MIDDLE EAST: Soviet airbornedivisionshave gone into an increased state of readiness, prob-ably because of the Middle East conflict.

The Soviets also placed at least one air-borne division on alert during the 1967 Arab-Israeliconflict.

The fall exercise activity in Eastern Europe has pro-ceeded on schedule, and Grechko is in Warsaw tocelebrate the 30th Anniversary of the Polish Army.

Some unusual movements of transport aircrafthave occurred and certain transport units appear tobe in an increased alert status, but this probablyis a result of the resupply activity under av

the USSR and the Middle East.



1973-10-13 central intelligence bulletin: arab states-israel

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