Annual ISSN 0149-144X

RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY

Symposium

2002 PROCEEDINGS

The International Symposium on Product Quality & Integrity

Seattle! Washington USA 2002 January 28 - 31

Annual RELIABILITY and IvlAINTAINABILLITY Symposium

2002 PROCEEDINGS

To cite the Proceedings as a reference: Proc. Ann. Reliability &Maintainability Symp., 2002.

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11 2002 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium

Tutorial Sessions

Improving Products and Processes Through Education

The Tutorial Notes for these sessions are included as a separate publication in the registration package The Tutorial Notes can also be purchased separately.

See the Publications Price List on the back cover.

Introductory Material

I A. INTRODUCTION TO RELIABILITY IC. INTEGRATED RELIABILITY & MAINTAINABILITY

2A. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY, MAINTAINABILITY, AND

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . John D. Healy

PROGRAM-PLANNING.. ........................................ Scott A. Fratianne and Dan C. Burrows

SUPPORTABILITY DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . e . . Caroline Smith 2C. ASSEMBLING SYSTEMSNETWORK RELIABILITY ..................................... Jason W. Rupe 3A. PRACTICAL RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT Ralph A. Evans 4B. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS IN PRODUCT RELIABILITY

........................... Milena Krasich and Julio C Gallardo 7A. INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT ........................ Michael V. Franks

Intermediate Material

IMPROVEMENT

2B. HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS. ....................................................... Joseph R. Fragola 2D. UNDERSTANDING ELECTRONIC PARTS FAILURE MECHANISMS .............. John W. Knepley

MODELING.. .................................................... .C. Richard Cassady and Edward A. Pohl 88 . RELIABILITY & AVAILABILITY MODELING USING THE

SHARPE SOFTWARE PACKAGE.. ............................ Kishor S. Trivedi and Christophe Hire1 I OB. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS OF COMPUTER BASED SYSTEMS.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Joanne Bechta Dugan l3A. INTRODUCTION TO SOFTWARE RELIABILITY RISK

MANAGEMENT.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Norman F. Schneidewind

4A. TNTRODUCTION TO REPAIRABLE-SYSTEMS

Special Topics

1B. WARRANTY AND RELIABILITY .............................. Wallace R. Blischke and D. N. P. Murthy 1 D. APPLYING PROBABILISTIC METHODS TO DESIGN AND

Ronald H. Salzman. Michael H. Packard and James A. McLinn 3 C . DYNAMIC ROBUST DESIGN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Madhav S. Phadke SC. THERMODYNAMIC RELIABILITY ENGINEERING.. Alec A. Feinberg 6D. IMPLEMENTING RELIABILITY CENTERED MAINT illiam A. Mercier 7D. HOW TO JUSTIFY YOUR MODELING RE SA. UNDERSTANDING ACCELERATED LIFE-

ANALYSIS.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9C. MODELING OF REALISTIC 12A FUZZY LOGIC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

RELIABILITY MODELING

........................ .Meng-Lai Yin

. , Pantelis Vassiliou and Adamantios Mettas ONTE CARLO METHOD.. . . . . . . . Arie Dubi

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . John Bowles

s 2 0 0 2 PROCEEDINGS Ai7nuol RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY .';vriiposuiii

Table of Contents . . Past Symposia .......................................................................................................................... inside cover

Management Committee, Board of Directors, Advisory Board ................................................................. iii Past Symposia & General Chairs ......................................................................................................... iv

The P. K. McElroy Award The P. K. McElroy Award for the 2001 Best Paper ............................... .v

Tutorial Sessions ....................................................................................................................................... x

FOREWORD

RELIABILITY AND SOCIAL POLICY ................................................................................................ xix William A. J. Golomski

Session 4C - LIFE CYCLE COST AND COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS Moderator: Sandra Leiker - U.S. Air Force

A STUDY OF ON-LINE MAINTENANCE PRACTICES AT US NUCLEAR PLANTS ................... James Chow Lin

RISK-INFORMED RELIABILITY-FOCUSED DECISION ANALYSIS SUPPORT FOR EFFECTIVE FACILITY-CHANGE MANAGEMENT ......................................................... 6

OPTIMIZING INTERVALS FOR INSPECTION & FAILURE-FlNlING TASKS ................................ 14

PRlORITIZING THE PURCHASE OF SPARE PARTS USING AN APPROXIMATE

James Keith Liming and Brian Keith Olson

Bonnie S. Hauge

REASONING MODEL ............................................................................................................... 20

.26 Stephen W. Eisenhawer, Terry F. Bott, and Joseph W. Jackson

AVAILABILITY CENTERED MAINTENANCE (ACM), AN INTEGRATED APPROACH Daniele Saccardi, and Giuseppe Fabio Ceschini

4D - STATISTICAL METHODS FOR R&M ANALYSIS Moderator: C. Richard Cassady - University of Arkansas

A PATH-BASED ALGORITHM TO EVALUATE ASYMPOTIC UNAVAILABILITY FOR LARGE MARKOV MODELS ............................................................................................ 32

A SIMPLE GRAPHICAL APPROACH FOR COMPARING RELIABILITY TRENDS ......................... 40 Yannick Lefebvre and Marc Bouissou

OF DIFFERENT UNITS IN A FLEET. Loon Ching Tang and Min Xie

Tieling Zhang and Yukun Ren

Vijendra P. Singh and Swami Sankaran

FAILURE-DATA ANALYSIS BY MlXTURE OF 3 WEIBULL DISTRIBUTIONS .............................. 44

SAMPLE SIZES FOR SYSTEM AVAILABILITY ................................................... ................... 51

COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF ESTIMATING SYSTEM-RELIABILITY CONFIDENCE LlMlTS FROM COMPONENT TEST DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .................................................. 56

‘.:xi

Xijin Tian 21111? PROCEEDINGS Ariricrol RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY .S)mrposiuni

SA - MAINTENANCE AND AVAILABILITY MODELING SPONSORED BY IIE Moderator: John R. English - University of Arkansas

SUPPLY-CHAIN RELIABILITY FOR CONTINGENCY OPERATIONS ................. ..61 Marlin U. Thomas

MAINTENANCE-COST MODELING FOR A REFRIGERATED-TRAILER FLEET ........................... 68 C. Richard Cassady, Darin W. Nutter, G. Don Taylor, and Chet Tuck Wong

RELIABILITY IMPROVEMENT OF AIRPORT GROUND-TRANSPORTATION VEHICLES USING NEURAL NETWORKS TO ANTICIPATE SYSTEM FAILURE ................................... 74

Alice E. Smith, David W. Coit, and Curtis W. McCullers INPUT DATA CHARACTERIZATION FACTORS FOR COMPLEX SYSTEMS

AFFECTING AVAILABILITY ESTIMATION ACCURACY .................................................... 80

OPTIMIZING CONDITION-BASED MAINTENANCE DECISIONS 90 Darren P. Durkee, Edward A. Pohl, Edward F. Mykytka

Andrew K.S. Jardine

SB - SAFETY & RISK MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT Moderator: Robert J . Loomis Jr. - United Space Alliance

NORMAL ACCIDENT-THEORY VALIDATED: INTERACTIVE COMPLEXITY AND RESOURCE AVAILABILITY AS PREDICTORS OF RELIABILITY ............................. 98

Frederick G. Wolf RELIABILITY & AVAILABILlTY EVALUATION FOR HIGHLY-MESHED

NETWORK-SYSTEMS ............................................................................................................ 104 Andrea Carpignano, Michelle Piccini, and Maurizio Gargiulo

Joanne Bechta Dugan and Liudong Xing

Patrick M. W. Korvers, Peter J.M. Sonnemans, and Aarnout C. Brombacher RISK ANALYSIS USING A HYBRID BAYES-APPROXIMATE REASONING METHODOLOGY. 127

.Terry F. Bott and Stephen W. Eisenhawer

GENERALIZED IMPERFECT COVERAGE PHASED-MISSION ANALYSIS .................................. 112

HOW SAFETY-INVESTMENTS INCREASE PERFORMANCE: A PRACTICAL CASE .................. 120

6A - LESSONS LEARNED Moderator: Heniy N. Hartt, BAE SYSTEMS

ULYSSES, SCYLLA. AND CHARYBDIS - AND THE STORY OF RELIABILITY ........................... 134 Giorgio Turconi

Per M. Johansson, Ida C. Gremyr, Anders P. Fundin, and Bo L.S. Bergman BEYOND ROOT-CAUSE ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 140

RlSK ASSESSMENT IN RAILROAD SIGNALLING: EXPERIENCE GAINED AND LESSONS-LEARNED ..................................................................................................... 147

Jens Braband

Larry H. Crow A METHOD FOR ACHIEVING AN ENHANCED MISSION CAPABILITY ...................................... 153

INTEGRATING RELIABILITY-IMPROVEMENT MODELING INTO ......................................................................... PRACTICE: CHALLENGES AND PITFALLS 158 . I

Russell Hodge and John Quigley, Ian James and Jane Marshall

xii 2002 PROCEEDINGS ..I ! m i d RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY .Swipo+iiiin

6B - FAULT TREES AND FMECA Moderator: Donald C. Johnston - United Space Alliance

FMEA OF MARINE SYSTEMS: MOVING FROM PRESCRIPTIVE TO RISK-BASED DESIGN & CLASSIFICATION ............................................................ 165

John A. Farquharson. Joel L. McDufYe'ee, and A. K. Seah, Takeshi Matsumoto THE FAILURE-ANALYSIS MATRIX: A KINDER, GENTLER ALTERNATIVE

FOR FMEA FOR INFORMATION SYSTEMS ............................................................. 173 Michael C. Signor

HOW TO AVOID THE GENERATION OF LOOPS IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF FAULT TREE ...................................................... ............ 178

Micaela Demichela, Norbert0 Picci SERVICE FAULT-TREE-ANALYSIS: ITS USE FOR IMI'ROVTNG THE EFFICIENCY

OF SERVICE PROCESSES .......................................................................................... Aloysio Antonio Peixoto de Carvalho, Andre Macedo, and Carlos Alberto Scapin

PROBABILITY EVALUATION OF SYSTEM-FAILURE OCCURENCE BASED ON MINIMAL CUT-SETS ......................................... ............ 190

Takehisa Kohda and Koichi Inoue

7B - R&M PROGRAMS IN A COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENT Moderator: Ralph L. Harper, Jr. - Raytheon Technical Service Company

REFRIGERATOR FAILURE EARLY PREDICTION BASED ON WARRANTY DATA ................... 195

AUTOMATED REAL-TIME TESTING (ARTT) FOR EMBEDDED CONTROL SYSTEMS ............. 647 Ke Liu

Jon Hawkins, Reginald B. Howard, and Haung V. Nguyen CAN CABLE-TELEVISION AVAILABILITY REACH THAT OF THE TELCOS? THE

ROAD TO 5 NINES ...... ~ ..................................................... ............ 200 Michael G. Gonzales

RELIABILITY-ANALYSIS SYSTEM FOR RISK MANAGEMENT OF LNG RECEIVING TERMINALS AND PIPING NETWORKS ............................................................................... 205

Daisuke Takagi, Kazuo Koyama and Kazutaka Miura, and Katsunori Kawai INTEGRATED SYSTEM FOR RELIABILITY-MODELING OF COLD PLASTIC

DEFORMATION TOOLS USED IN THE CAR INDUSTRY ........................... ............ 212

............ 217 Calin Florin Baban, Alexandru Viorel Pele, and Marius Baban

Ming-Xiao Jiang RANDOM VIBRATION ANALYSIS AND PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION

7C - SOFTWARE RELlABILlTY & MAINTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Moderator: Samuel J . Keene. Jr. - Seagate Technology

SCENARIO-BASED UNIT TESTING FOR RELIABILITY .................. ............ 222 Silke Kuball , Gordon Hughes, and Julio C Gallardo, and Ian

THREE MODIFIED DEPENDENCY-TESTS FOR SOFTWARE FAILURES .... ............ 228 Ching-Cheng Wang and Ronald Jung-Wen Chen

AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF SOFTWARE MAlNTAINABILITY ....... ............ 235 Krishan K. Agganval, Yogesh Singh, and Jitender Kumar Chhab

INVESTIGATING A SPECIFIC CLASS OF SOFTWARE RELIABILITY-GROWTH MODELS ....... 242 Peter A. Keiller and Thomas A. Mazzuchi

Sylvain P. Leblanc and Paul A. Roman RELIABILITY ESTIMATION OF HIERARCHICAL SOFTWARE SYSTEMS .............

... XI11 , / I 2002 PROCEEDINGS Anriunl FELIABILIT( and MAINTAINABILITY .Symposium

8C - R&M OPTIMIZATION Moderator: C. Richard Cassady - University of Arkansas

MAINTANANCE OPTIMIZATION UNDER UNCERTAINITIES, USING lNTERVAL-METHODS & EVOLUTIONARY STRATEGIES ............................................... ,254

Claudio M. Rocco

Les Warrington, Jeffery A. Jones, and Neil Davis

James Chow Lin

Guangbin Yang and Ziad Zaghati

Hairong Sun and James J. Han

MODELLING OF MAINTENANCE, WITHlN DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION .......................... 260

USE OF FUNCTIONAL REPRESENTATION DIAGRAM FOR RELIABILITY IMPROVEMENT ... 266

TWO-DIMENSIONAL RELIABILITY-MODELING FROM WARRANTY DATA ............................ 272

THE FAILURE OF MTTF IN AVAILABILITY EVALUATION ......................................................... 279

9A - DEFECT DETECTION IN SOFTWARE ENGINEERING Moderator: Harold E. Ascher - Harold E. Ascher & Associates

MAKING THE (BUSINESS) CASE FOR SOFTWARE RELIABILITY .............................................. 285

AN APPROACH FOR UNDERSTANDING AND TESTING THIRD PARTY

Jennifer M. Haddox, C C Michael and Gregory M. Kapfiammer

Zigmund M. Bluvband

Patrick J. Hartman

David B. Nicholls and Tom McGibbon

SOFTWARE COMPONENTS ................................................................................................... 293

RELIABILITY-CENTERED SOFTWARE TESTING .......................................................................... 300

UTILITY OF POPULAR SOFTWARE DEFECT MODELS ............ ........... ............ 306

VALIDATION OF GUIDANCE CONTROL SOFTWARE REQUIREENTS SPECIFICATION FOR RELIABILITY AND FALILT-TOLERANCE ...................................... 3 12

Frederick T. Sheldon and Hye Yeon Kim

9B - ACCELERATED LIFE TESTING Moderator: Pantelis Vassilou - ReliaSoft Corp.

ACCELERATED TESTS TO SIMULATE METAL-MIGRATION IN HYBRID CIRCUITS ........... Satish Bhakta, Gary Mortensen. Tim Muotka, and Scott Lundberg

RELlABILITY QUANTIFICATION OF INDUCTION MOTORS - ACCELERATED DEGRADATION TESTING APPROACH ................................................................................ 325

Wendai Wang and Dan Dragomir-Daescu RELIABILITY STRESS-TEST METHOD: IMPACT ON THE NEW-PRODUCT

INTRODUCTION PROCESS, TIME TO MARKET, FIELD RELIABILITY IMPACT, AND RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT . . . ............. .............. 232

PLANNING MULTIPLE-LEVELS CONSTANT-STRESS ACCELERATED LLFE TESTS ................ 338

11

Shams Jawaid, Seifi Zaki and Jon Ferguson

Loon Ching Tang and Min Xie

Adamantios Mettas and Pantelis Vassiliou MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF TIME-DEPENDENT STRESS ACCELERATED LIFE DATA .... 343

xiv 2002 PROCEEDINGS Amual RELIABILSTY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium

9D - APPLICATION OF SOFTWARE TOOLS TO R&M ANALYSIS Moderator: Keith M. Janasak - Raytheon

QRAS - THE QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT SYSTEM.. ......................................... 349

......................................... 356 Frank J. Groen, Carol Sophie Smidts, Ali Mosleh, and S. Swaminathan

EFFECTIVE AUTOMATED SNEAK CIRCUIT ANALYSIS ............... Christopher John Price and Nigel Hughes

THE APPLICATION OF RODON TO THE FMEA OF A MICROGRAVITY FACILITY SUBSYSTEM .............................................................................

Edward J . Zampino and Dirk Burow

Donald C. Johnston

Jane Marshall, Lesley Walls, and Jeffery A. Jones

PLAUSIBLE REASONING THEORY IN RCM ANALYSIS

ENHANCING PRODUCT RELIABILITY USING REMM .................................................................. 372

INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL: USING THE WEB FOR KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT

.............

AND DATA UTILIZATION IN RELIABILITY ENGINEERING ............................................ 379 Adamantios Mettas and David Rock

1OC - MODELING & SlMULATION Moderator: Neal Breugger - U.S. Air Force

RESEARCH ON THE MODEL AND SOFTWARE-PACKAGE FOR SHIP ELIABILITY ANALYSIS .. ............................................................................................ 386

Hong Yi, Yufang Zhan d Changchun Li, and Mingjun Chen RELIABILITY THERMAL ANALYSIS AND OPTIMIZATION WIRABILITY

DESIGN OF MULTI-LAYER PRINTED WIRE BOARDS ....................................................... 392 Xijin Tian and Olgierd A. Palusinski

INTEGRATED MODELING OF SYSTEM FUNCTIONAL, MAINTENANCE

Jeffery A. Jones, Les Warrington, and Neil Davis

Leila Meshkat, Yong Ou and Joanne Bechta Dugan

Aron Brall

& ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ................ ............... 399

MULTI-PHASE RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR DYNAMIC & STATIC PHASES ...... 404

AVAILABILITY MODELING FOR THE APPLICATION OF MANUFACTURING EQUIF'MENT .. 41 1

10D - PRODUCT DESIGN & ASSURANCE Moderator: Jason W. Rupe - Qwest Communications Int'l

IMPROVING DESIGN FOR RELIABILITY WITH IN-SERVICE DATA ANALYSIS ....................... 417 Ian James and Jane Marshall and Lesley Walls

Sandeep Tonapi and K. Srihari, and Peter Borgesen

James Chow Lin

RELIABILITY OF LEAD-FREE SOLDER INTERCONNECTS: A REVIEW ..................................... 423

THE USE OF lNDIRECT EVIDENCE FOR BAYESIAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS ........................ 429

2002 PROCEEDINGS ilnnuol RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY .Symposium xv

11A - ADVISORY BOARD PANEL THE FUTURE OF RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AS A PROFESSION

Moderator: John English - University of Arkansas

THE FUTURE OF RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AS A PROFESSION ........................................... 434

RELIABILITY -LOOKING AHEAD .................................................................................................. 436

RELIABILITY SPECIALISTS - A CRITICAL NEED ......................................................................... 438

Kailash C. Kapur

Ted Mitrou

Gustav Vassiliades

11C - RELIABILITY MODELING OF SYSTEMS Moderator: Randall L. Riddle - U.S. Air Force

THE DESIGN & EVALUATION OF ALL VOTING TRIPLE MODULAR REDUNDANCY SYSTEM ........................................................ ............. ......... 439

Hyung Joon Jean, Hyun, Keyseo Lee and Hyntae Lee

FOR SHI l”S POWER SYSTEM ......................................................

RELIABILITY/AVAILABILITY OF K-OUT-OF-N:G SYSTEM WITH M

FAULT-INFORMATION MODEL AND MAINTENANCE CYCLE FORECASTING ....... 445

Wei Gu and Jianxing Chu

COLD-STANDBY UNITS .......... ..................................................................................... 450 Wendai Wang and James L

James Loman and Wendai Wang ON RELIABILITY MODELING and ANALYSIS of HIGHLY RELIABLE LARGE SYSTEMS ...

APPROXIMATION METHOD AND FORMULAS FOR AVERAGE UNAVAILABILIY

Anapathur V. Ramesh, David W. Twigg, and Tilak C. Sharma OF SYSTEMS WITH LATENT FAULTS ................................................................................. 460

1 ID - TL9000 SESSION SPONSORED BY ASQ Moderator: David C. Davis -SAIC

USING TL 9000 REQUIREMENTS TO IMPROVE TELECOMMUNICATIONS PRODUCT QUALITY AND RELIABILITY ............................................................................ 467

DEVELOPMENT OF QUALITY INDEX for TL 9000 MEASUREMENTS ....................................... .47 1

USING TL 9000 MEASUREMENTS ................................................................................................... 476

Sandford Liebesman and Thomas F. Yohe

Aridaman K. Jain

Richard F. Morrow and Ashok V. Dandekar

Sandford Liebesman I S 0 9000: 2000 -THE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR INTERNAL AUDITORS ....... 480

12B - QUALITY & PRODUCT ASSURANCE Moderator: Ralph L. Harper, Jr. - Raytheon Technical service Company

QFD IMPLEMENTATION IN A DISCRETE-SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ................................ 484

WARRANTY, PRODUCT SPECTRUM, AND CUSTOMER ROLE ................................................... 490 Cher Ming Tan and Teck Khim Neo

Melkote K. Ramaswamy

xvi 2002 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium

ANALYZING FUZZINESS IN PRODUCT QUALITY & RELIABILITY INFORMATION-FLOW DURING TIME-DRIVEN PRODUCT-DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ....................................... 496

Yuan Lu and Aarnout C. Brombacher, Elke Den Ouden and Patrick K. M. W. Korvers RELIABILITY MODELS OF REPAIRABLE SYSTEMS CONSIDERING THE EFFECT

OF OPERATION CONDITIONS .............................................................................................. 503

MEASURTNG RELIABILITY-CENTERED-MAINTENANCE IMPLEMENTATION ........................ 5 11 P.V.N. Prasad and Kancharla R.M. Rao

Donald C. Johnston

12C - RELIABILITY PREDICTION METHODS Moderator: David W. Coit - Rutgers University

A FAILURE-FORECAST METHOD BASED ON WEIBULL AND STATISTICAL-PATTERN ANALYSIS .............................................................. ................. 516

Kevin Fitzgibbon, Ron Barker, Tige Claton, and Nathan Wilson FAULT-FREQUENCY PREDICTION OF CHASSIS COMPONENTS

FOR HEAVY-DUTY TRUCKS ................................................................................................ 522 Gunnar L. J. Wickstrom

RELlABILITY PREDICTION BASED ON CRITICALITY-ASSOCIATED SIMILARITY ANALYSIS ........................................................................... ...... 528

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR 1-SHOT SYSTEMS ..................................... 536 Alazel Jackson, Tyrone Jackson and Aridaman K. Jain

Rene L. Bierbaum and Donald L. Wright SYSLEB - A TOOL FOR THE CALCULATION of the SYSTEM RELIABILITY from RAW

Pozsgai Peter, Anna Krolo and Bernd Bertsche and Andreas Fritz FAILURE-DATA ............................................................................................................. 542

12D - R&M TECHNIQUES AND APPLICATIONS Moderator: Gary S. Wasserman - Wayne State University

THE EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY. A

Kenneth E. Murphy, Charles M. Carter and Steven 0. Brown PRACTICAL GUIDE TO ITS IMPLEMENTATION ................................. 550

A SIMPLIFIED AVAILABILITY MODELING TOOL for NETWORKS WITH 1: 1 REDUNDANT SOFTWARE-HARDWARE SYSTEMS .................................. 556

Wei Hou and 0. Geoffrey Okogbaa COMPARISON OF RELIABILITY & AVAILABILITY EVALUATION

TECHNIQUES FOR DISTRIBUTION NETWORK SYSTEMS .. ............ 563

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF AVAILABILITY FROM SYSTEM PERFORMANCE DATA 569

APPLICATION OF BAYES STATISTICS TO REDUCE SAMPLE-SIZE, CONSIDERING

Emiliano Roggero, Alessandra Mosso, Andrea Ponta and Enrico Carpaneto

Jan B. Smith and W. Bryan Smith

A LIFETIME-RATIO ............................................................................................................... ,577 Anna Krolo, Bettina Rzepka, and Bernd Bertsche

APPLICATION OF SEMI-MARKOV PROCESS AND CTMC TO EVALUATION OF U P S SYSTEM AVAILABILITY ..................................................................... 584

Ricado M. Fricks, Liang Yin and Kishor S. Trivedi

2002 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTATNABILITY Symposium xvii

13C - R&M IN AEROSPACE Moderator: Bonnie S. Hauge - United Space Alliance

A RELIABILITY-DRIVEN MISSION FOR SPACE STATION ............ Martin L. Shooman and Pasquale M. Sforza

J. Steven Newman and Stephen M. Wander

Ming-Xiao Jiang and Yongcang Zhang

.......................... 592

THE KNOWLEDGE-PATH TO MISSION SUCCESS: OVERVIEW OF THE NASA PBMA-KMS ... 601 , DYNAMIC MODELING OF DEGRADATION DATA

A DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATOR FOR PREDICTING OUTAGE TIME & COSTS

.................................................................... 607

AS A FUNCTION OF MAINTENANCE RESOURCES ...................... 612 Myron Hecht and Jady Handal

13D -ENVIRONMENTAL TESTING AND STRESS SCREENING Moderator: Ralph L. Harper, Jr. - Raytheon Technical Services Company

RELIABLITY TESTS ON POWER DEVICES ......................................................................... 618

INCREASE RELIABILITY for SCREENING BY COATING PLASTIC PARTS ................................ 622

ELECTRONIC PACKAGTNG ADHESIVE FATIGUE-LIFE PREDICTION

Santiago Fernandez-Gomez, Jorge Marcos Acevedo, and Jose Manuel Lopez Pallas

A. J . Morrison

USING THERMAL-CYCLING STEP-STRESS TESTING ..................................... 628

ESTABLISHMENT OF ACCELERATED CORROSION-TESTING CONDITIONS ........................... 636

IMPROVrNG THE RELIABTLITY OF A NEWLY-DESIGNED MOBILE PHONE

Xijin Tian and John L. Prince

Lev M. Klyatis

BY ENVIRONMENTAL TESTS AND ACCELERATED LIFE TESTS ................................... 642 Sang Jun Park, Jong Shin Ha, Wan So0 Choi and Sang Duck Park

Author Index for this Proceedings .......................................................................................................... 653 ........................................................ 655

2002 Exhibition and Exhibitors ................................................................................................ 657 Call for Papers for 2003 ......................................................................................................................... 659 Call for Exhibits ................................................... ............................... 661 Symposium Activities not otherwise listed in these Proceedings ............................................................ 662 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................... 662 Cosponsoring Societies.. .................................................................................................... inside back cover Publications Price List ................................................................... back cover

Key Word Index for this Proceedings ......

. . . .

xviii 2002 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Syniposiuni