11

2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP2007 South Coast AQMP/SIPOzone & PM2.5 Control Strategy Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy

2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP2007 South Coast AQMP/SIPOzone & PM2.5 Control Strategy Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy

Laki Tisopulos, Ph.D., P.E.Assistant Deputy Executive Officer

South Coast Air Quality Management District

NACAA Spring Membership MeetingMay 6, 2008

22

Boundaries of the South Coast Air QualityBoundaries of the South Coast Air QualityManagement District and Federal Planning AreasManagement District and Federal Planning Areas

Boundaries of the South Coast Air QualityBoundaries of the South Coast Air QualityManagement District and Federal Planning AreasManagement District and Federal Planning Areas

2

33

Demographic Projections and Demographic Projections and Ozone Air Quality TrendOzone Air Quality Trend

Demographic Projections and Demographic Projections and Ozone Air Quality TrendOzone Air Quality Trend

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

YEAR

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

1980

Pe

rce

nt

Inc

rea

se

in

Po

pu

lati

on

an

d

Ac

tiv

itie

s

O3 8-HourDesign Value

Population VMT Housing Units

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

De

sig

n V

alu

e (

pp

b)

80

O3 8-HourDesign Value (ppb)

44

2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other U.S. Cities Compared to Other U.S. Cities

2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other U.S. Cities Compared to Other U.S. Cities

Percent of Standard

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

South Coast Houston Philadelphia New York WashingtonD.C.

Atlanta Chicago Phoenix

Ozone (8-hour) Ozone (1-hour) PM2.5 (Annual)

PM10 (Annual) CO (8-hour) NO2 (Annual)

55

2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration

66

South CoastSouth Coast82%82%

Rest of CaliforniaRest of California18%18%

South CoastSouth Coast52%52%

Rest of NationRest of Nation48%48%

Population-Weighted Exposure Above NAAQS Based onPopulation-Weighted Exposure Above NAAQS Based on2000-2002 AIRS Data2000-2002 AIRS Data

PM2.5 Disproportionate ExposurePM2.5 Disproportionate ExposureSouth Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air Basin

PM2.5 Disproportionate ExposurePM2.5 Disproportionate ExposureSouth Coast Air BasinSouth Coast Air Basin

Source: California Air Resources Board Source: California Air Resources Board

77

SCAB Cases/Year due to PM2.5 *

Premature Deaths 5,400Hospitalizations 2,400Asthma & Lower Respiratory 140,000 SymptomsLost Work Days 980,000Minor Restricted Activity Days 5,000,000

*1999-2000 Air Quality Data

Source: California Air Resources Board

Recent CARB Assessment Recent CARB Assessment of PM Health Effectsof PM Health Effects

Recent CARB Assessment Recent CARB Assessment of PM Health Effectsof PM Health Effects

88

Emissions by Major CategoryEmissions by Major CategorySCAQMDSCAQMD

Emissions by Major CategoryEmissions by Major CategorySCAQMDSCAQMD

(NOx, SOx, PM2.5) (VOC, NOx)

PM2.5, 2014Area Sources

10%

Point Sources7%

On-Road 39%

Off-Road 41%

On-Road 25%

Area Sources 26%

8-Hr Ozone, 2023

PointSources

8%

Off-Road 41%

Fugitive Dust3%

99

Primary Emissions ResponsibilityPrimary Emissions Responsibilityby Agencyby Agency

Primary Emissions ResponsibilityPrimary Emissions Responsibilityby Agencyby Agency

(NOx, SOx, PM2.5) (VOC, NOx)

PM2.5, 2014

District20%

EPA24%

CARB56%

District23%

EPA20%

CARB57%

8-Hr Ozone, 2023

1010

VOC Annual Average Emissions VOC Annual Average Emissions 20142014

VOC Annual Average Emissions VOC Annual Average Emissions 20142014

107

78

2824 23 22 22

4445

54

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

ConsumerProducts

Light-DutyPassenger

Cars

Light-DutyTrucks

Off-RoadEqupment

RecreationalBoats

PetroleumMarketing

ArchitecturalCoatings

Off-RoadRecreational

Heavy-DutyGasoline

Truck

Coatings &Related

Processes

ton

s p

er d

ay

1111

NOx Annual Average Emissions NOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014

NOx Annual Average Emissions NOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014

147

120

48 47

3127

23 23 22

90

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Heavy-DutyDiesel Trucks

Off-RoadEquipment

Ships &Commercial

Boats

Light-DutyPassenger

Cars

Light-DutyTrucks

Heavy-DutyGasolineTrucks

RECLAIM Trains Aircraft ResidentialFuel

Combustion

ton

s p

er d

ay

1212

SOx Annual Average Emissions SOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014

SOx Annual Average Emissions SOx Annual Average Emissions 20142014

12

2 1 1 1 1 0.5 0.5

48

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ships &Commercial

Boats

RECLAIM Aircraft PetroleumRefineries

Manufacturing& Industry

Combustion

Light-DutyPassenger

Cars

Service &CommercialCombustion

Light-DutyTrucks

ResidentialFuel

Combustion

Landfills

ton

s p

er d

ay

1313

Directly Emitted PM2.5Directly Emitted PM2.5Annual Average Emissions-2014Annual Average Emissions-2014

Directly Emitted PM2.5Directly Emitted PM2.5Annual Average Emissions-2014Annual Average Emissions-2014

20

15

76

5

3 3

4 4

9

0

5

10

15

20

25

Paved RoadDust

CommercialCooking

ResidentialFuel

Combustion

Ships &Commercial

Boats

Construction &Demolition

Dust

Heavy-DutyDiesel Trucks

Light-DutyPassenger

Cars

Light-DutyTrucks

Wood & Paper RecreationalBoats

ton

s p

er d

ay

1414

Goods MovementGoods MovementGrowth Growth

2001-20202001-2020

Goods MovementGoods MovementGrowth Growth

2001-20202001-2020

• 300 % increase in cargo through the ports

• 170% increase in truck travel

• 150% increase in rail cargo

1515

Design PrinciplesDesign Principles Design PrinciplesDesign Principles

• Expeditious Progress

• Meet Attainment Deadlines

• Minimize Cost Impacts to Degree Practicable

• All Feasible Measure and Promote Fair Share Responsibility

1616

Control Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy DesignControl Strategy Design

• Step I– Maximum controls of SOx and directly emitted PM2.5– Necessary NOx controls– Modest VOC controls to ensure progress toward

ozone attainment

• Step II– Continue NOx control programs– Necessary VOC reductions

• Attainment Demonstration– All grid cells– At or below the standards

1717

2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy2007 AQMP Control Strategy

• District’s Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures

• State and Federal Control Measures– CARB’s Proposed Concepts– District Staff’s Recommended State and

Federal Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures

• SCAG’s 2004 RTP/2006 RTIP• Long-Term Strategy

1818

Plan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan SummaryPlan Summary

• Inclusive Control Strategy – 2015 PM2.5

Attainment – 2024 Ozone

Attainment

• 31 - Stationary Source Measures

• 30 - Mobile Source Measures

2014 2023

NOx 203 (29%)

383 (76%)

VOC 59 (11%)

116 (22%)

SOx 24 (56%)

---

PM2.5 14 (14%)

---

Emissions Reductions Needed

1919

Highlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control Measures

• New Development and Re-Development Projects

• Consumer Products Certification and Use Restrictions

• Facility Modernization

• Backstop Rule for Ports and Port-Related Facilities

2020

Highlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control Measures(cont)(cont)

Highlights of Control MeasuresHighlights of Control Measures(cont)(cont)

• Cleaner Fuel in Ocean Going Vessels Auxiliary and Main Engines

• Ocean-Going Vessels While At Berth At A California Port

• Off-Road Engine In-use Standards– Local Opt-in Surplus Reductions

• In-Use On-Road Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

2121

Market Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive ProgramsMarket Incentive Programs

• Public/Private Investment to Accelerate Fleet Turnover– Carol Moyer Program– AB923– Prop 1B– Others

2222

Challenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the HorizonChallenges on the Horizon

• Revised 24-Hour PM2.5 Standard – 65 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3 – EPA designations finalized (12/2008?)– AQMP due three years following final

designation

• Revisions to the 8-Hour Ozone Standard– New standard: 0.075 ppm– Final designations finalized (12/2010)

2323

Predicted Maximum 24-hour Predicted Maximum 24-hour PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)Predicted Maximum 24-hour Predicted Maximum 24-hour PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)

SO428%

OC15%

EC9%

NH410%

NO326%

Other12%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

2021

PM

2.5

ug/m

3 Standard35ug/m3

Speciated PM2.5

2424

SummarySummarySummarySummary

• Concerted effort underway to implement 2007 AQMP control strategy

• Federal partnership needed

• New air quality standards pose significant challenge to attainment by 2020 and beyond