2009 年第四季投資報告
DESCRIPTION
啟富達 WMA 財富管理顧問課程中階班 (9807 期第二組 ). 2009 年第四季投資報告. 指導老師：李建平老師、趙靜芬老師. 組 長：張丁文 組 員：黃麗玲、宋惠美、游鳳秋、梁桂禎、呂庭蓁、楊麗霞 陳彩鈺、尤鳳月、黃紫鳳、郭衣縈、林美蘭. WMA 邏 輯架構：全球股市相關性. 訂單. 以前. 以前. 以後. 以後. B R I C( 金磚四國 ). 美國. 台灣. 日本. 韓國. 韓國. 日本. 台灣. 中國. 中國. (C). (C). 印度. 印度. (I). (I). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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WMA(9807)
-
2000 :()WMA
-
:()WMA
MSCI20012005()1.000 0.896 1.000 0.970 0.809 1.000 0.528 0.414 0.392 1.000 0.951 0.966 0.875 0.441 1.000 0.582 0.461 0.449 0.994 0.492 1.000 0.756 0.609 0.728 0.455 0.685 0.536 1.000 0.845 0.713 0.799 0.531 0.780 0.597 0.946 1.000 0.812 0.748 0.775 0.402 0.785 0.452 0.723 0.874 1.000 0.721 0.653 0.656 0.516 0.676 0.564 0.683 0.807 0.730 1.000 :
-
WMA / / / / ---GDP = C + G + I + (X-M) :()()
-
GDP = C + G + I + (X-M)1.2. - ()1.2.3.4.1.2.3.4.5.NAHB1.2.ISM3.4. :()WMA / /
-
1.GDP/14710(WMA()2. :()3.()()4.()
-
WMA1.(1)(2)(,)2.(1)(2)/3.(1)(2)(1) GDP/ :()(2) : ISM
: PMI
: IFOZEW
: PMI
: 3~6
-
I ()II ()III ()IV()////()()()WMA/ :()CRB ()
-
:
-
--- ( ) :
-
--- ( ) 8 :()
Chart4
43.550.2
38.944.4
36.237.3
32.440.6
35.642.9
35.841.6
36.340.8
40.143.7
42.844
44.847
48.946.4
52.948.4
ISM
GDP
2008/1Q2008/2Q2008/3Q2008/4Q2009/1Q2009/2Q2009/3Q2009/4Q
1.9%3.3%-0.5%-6.3%-5.5%-1.0%
GDP
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
GDP
ISM
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
43.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
50.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744.047.046.448.4
ISM
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
ISM
PMI
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
41.341.135.633.934.433.633.936.840.742.646.348.2
43.342.935.732.732.032.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
41.041.534.433.635.834.739.142.945.447.050.049.7
PMI
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
(PMI)
IFO
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
92.990.285.882.683.082.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
-41.1-63.0-53.5-45.2-31.0-31.0-3.513.031.144.839.556.1
IFO
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
IFO
ZEW
IFOZEW
1Q-082Q-083Q-084Q-081Q-092Q-093Q-09
23232319115-3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
08-0809-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-09
181212119910101112171845~38
7,0716,2045,0434,5104,4964,4754,4774,9265,7246,5866,4966,83537~32
31~23
22~17
16~9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
()() M1B()(Index 1966=100)() M1B()()
(point)(point)(%)(%)(%)(%)
08-082008082008-08182-127,9210.81-5.327,071-0.8-19.25
09-082008092008-0912-6-207,9300.11-4.896,204-12.26-31.59
10-082008102008-10120-207,9620.4-4.075,043-18.71-47.5
11-082008112008-1111-1-177,913-0.62-3.564,510-10.57-48.75
12-082008122008-129-2-207,9490.45-2.174,496-0.31-45.89
01-092009012009-0190-208,3294.781.784,475-0.47-43.52
02-092009022009-02101-178,4851.872.714,4770.04-44.03
03-092009032009-03100-168,6481.925.444,92610.03-41.64
04-092009042009-04111-168,9733.769.495,72416.2-35.53
05-092009052009-05121-109,2673.2812.946,58615.06-26.08
06-092009062009-06175-39,3300.6817.036,496-1.37-20.59
07-092009072009-0718129,4781.5920.636,8355.22-4.11
-
--- ( ) :
-
--- () :1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF
-
--- ()1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF :
-
--- ()1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF :
-
--- (S&P500)1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF (1) :
-
--- ()1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF :
-
--- (2000)1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF (1) :
-
--- S&P500 9,300 10,000 9,000 10,600 1,080~1,100 6 1,000 1,100 950 1,150 :TMBA
-
--- 2000 2,000 2,150 1,900 2,300 570 640 530 700 :TMBA
-
--- ( ) :
-
--- ( ) 6 :()
Chart1
41.343.341
41.142.941.5
35.635.734.4
33.932.733.6
34.43235.8
33.632.134.7
33.932.439.1
36.835.442.9
40.739.645.4
42.640.547
46.345.250
48.249.249.7
(PMI)
GDP
2008/1Q2008/2Q2008/3Q2008/4Q2009/1Q2009/2Q2009/3Q2009/4Q
1.9%3.3%-0.5%-6.3%-5.5%-1.0%
GDP
GDP
ISM
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
43.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
50.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744.047.046.448.4
ISM
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
ISM
PMI
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
41.341.135.633.934.433.633.936.840.742.646.348.2
43.342.935.732.732.032.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
41.041.534.433.635.834.739.142.945.447.050.049.7
PMI
(PMI)
IFO
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
92.990.285.882.683.082.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
-41.1-63.0-53.5-45.2-31.0-31.0-3.513.031.144.839.556.1
IFO
IFO
ZEW
IFOZEW
1Q-082Q-083Q-084Q-081Q-092Q-093Q-09
23232319115-3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
08-0809-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-09
181212119910101112171845~38
7,0716,2045,0434,5104,4964,4754,4774,9265,7246,5866,4966,83537~32
31~23
22~17
16~9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
()() M1B()(Index 1966=100)() M1B()()
(point)(point)(%)(%)(%)(%)
08-082008082008-08182-127,9210.81-5.327,071-0.8-19.25
09-082008092008-0912-6-207,9300.11-4.896,204-12.26-31.59
10-082008102008-10120-207,9620.4-4.075,043-18.71-47.5
11-082008112008-1111-1-177,913-0.62-3.564,510-10.57-48.75
12-082008122008-129-2-207,9490.45-2.174,496-0.31-45.89
01-092009012009-0190-208,3294.781.784,475-0.47-43.52
02-092009022009-02101-178,4851.872.714,4770.04-44.03
03-092009032009-03100-168,6481.925.444,92610.03-41.64
04-092009042009-04111-168,9733.769.495,72416.2-35.53
05-092009052009-05121-109,2673.2812.946,58615.06-26.08
06-092009062009-06175-39,3300.6817.036,496-1.37-20.59
07-092009072009-0718129,4781.5920.636,8355.22-4.11
-
--- ( ) :()
Chart2
92.9-41.1
90.2-63
85.8-53.5
82.6-45.2
83-31
82.6-31
82.1-3.5
83.713
84.231.1
85.944.8
87.339.5
90.556.1
IFO
ZEW
IFOZEW
GDP
2008/1Q2008/2Q2008/3Q2008/4Q2009/1Q2009/2Q2009/3Q2009/4Q
1.9%3.3%-0.5%-6.3%-5.5%-1.0%
GDP
GDP
ISM
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
43.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
50.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744.047.046.448.4
ISM
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
ISM
PMI
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
41.341.135.633.934.433.633.936.840.742.646.348.2
43.342.935.732.732.032.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
41.041.534.433.635.834.739.142.945.447.050.049.7
PMI
(PMI)
IFO
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
92.990.285.882.683.082.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
-41.1-63.0-53.5-45.2-31.0-31.0-3.513.031.144.839.556.1
IFO
IFO
ZEW
IFOZEW
1Q-082Q-083Q-084Q-081Q-092Q-093Q-09
23232319115-3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
08-0809-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-09
181212119910101112171845~38
7,0716,2045,0434,5104,4964,4754,4774,9265,7246,5866,4966,83537~32
31~23
22~17
16~9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
()() M1B()(Index 1966=100)() M1B()()
(point)(point)(%)(%)(%)(%)
08-082008082008-08182-127,9210.81-5.327,071-0.8-19.25
09-082008092008-0912-6-207,9300.11-4.896,204-12.26-31.59
10-082008102008-10120-207,9620.4-4.075,043-18.71-47.5
11-082008112008-1111-1-177,913-0.62-3.564,510-10.57-48.75
12-082008122008-129-2-207,9490.45-2.174,496-0.31-45.89
01-092009012009-0190-208,3294.781.784,475-0.47-43.52
02-092009022009-02101-178,4851.872.714,4770.04-44.03
03-092009032009-03100-168,6481.925.444,92610.03-41.64
04-092009042009-04111-168,9733.769.495,72416.2-35.53
05-092009052009-05121-109,2673.2812.946,58615.06-26.08
06-092009062009-06175-39,3300.6817.036,496-1.37-20.59
07-092009072009-0718129,4781.5920.636,8355.22-4.11
-
--- ( )
:
-
1. 2. 3.MACD DIFMACD --- (MSCI) :Bloomberg
-
--- ()1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF (3) :
-
--- ()1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF (2) :
-
--- ()1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF :
-
--- MSCI 6 80 85 75 90 :TMBA
-
--- ( ) :()
Chart3
23
23
23
19
11
5
-3
GDP
2008/1Q2008/2Q2008/3Q2008/4Q2009/1Q2009/2Q2009/3Q2009/4Q
1.9%3.3%-0.5%-6.3%-5.5%-1.0%
GDP
GDP
ISM
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
43.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
50.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744.047.046.448.4
ISM
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
ISM
PMI
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
41.341.135.633.934.433.633.936.840.742.646.348.2
43.342.935.732.732.032.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
41.041.534.433.635.834.739.142.945.447.050.049.7
PMI
(PMI)
IFO
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
92.990.285.882.683.082.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
-41.1-63.0-53.5-45.2-31.0-31.0-3.513.031.144.839.556.1
IFO
IFO
ZEW
IFOZEW
1Q-082Q-083Q-084Q-081Q-092Q-093Q-09
23232319115-3
08-0809-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-09
181212119910101112171845~38
7,0716,2045,0434,5104,4964,4754,4774,9265,7246,5866,4966,83537~32
31~23
22~17
16~9
()() M1B()(Index 1966=100)() M1B()()
(point)(point)(%)(%)(%)(%)
08-082008082008-08182-127,9210.81-5.327,071-0.8-19.25
09-082008092008-0912-6-207,9300.11-4.896,204-12.26-31.59
10-082008102008-10120-207,9620.4-4.075,043-18.71-47.5
11-082008112008-1111-1-177,913-0.62-3.564,510-10.57-48.75
12-082008122008-129-2-207,9490.45-2.174,496-0.31-45.89
01-092009012009-0190-208,3294.781.784,475-0.47-43.52
02-092009022009-02101-178,4851.872.714,4770.04-44.03
03-092009032009-03100-168,6481.925.444,92610.03-41.64
04-092009042009-04111-168,9733.769.495,72416.2-35.53
05-092009052009-05121-109,2673.2812.946,58615.06-26.08
06-092009062009-06175-39,3300.6817.036,496-1.37-20.59
07-092009072009-0718129,4781.5920.636,8355.22-4.11
-
--- (225)1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF :
-
--- ( ) :
-
--- ( ) :
Chart4
18
12
12
11
9
9
10
10
11
12
17
18
GDP
2008/1Q2008/2Q2008/3Q2008/4Q2009/1Q2009/2Q2009/3Q2009/4Q
1.9%3.3%-0.5%-6.3%-5.5%-1.0%
GDP
GDP
ISM
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
43.538.936.232.435.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9
50.244.437.340.642.941.640.843.744.047.046.448.4
ISM
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
ISM
PMI
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
41.341.135.633.934.433.633.936.840.742.646.348.2
43.342.935.732.732.032.132.435.439.640.545.249.2
41.041.534.433.635.834.739.142.945.447.050.049.7
PMI
(PMI)
IFO
09-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-0908-09
92.990.285.882.683.082.682.183.784.285.987.390.5
-41.1-63.0-53.5-45.2-31.0-31.0-3.513.031.144.839.556.1
IFO
IFO
ZEW
IFOZEW
1Q-082Q-083Q-084Q-081Q-092Q-093Q-09
23232319115-3
08-0809-0810-0811-0812-0801-0902-0903-0904-0905-0906-0907-09
181212119910101112171845~38
7,0716,2045,0434,5104,4964,4754,4774,9265,7246,5866,4966,83537~32
31~23
22~17
16~9
()() M1B()(Index 1966=100)() M1B()()
(point)(point)(%)(%)(%)(%)
08-082008082008-08182-127,9210.81-5.327,071-0.8-19.25
09-082008092008-0912-6-207,9300.11-4.896,204-12.26-31.59
10-082008102008-10120-207,9620.4-4.075,043-18.71-47.5
11-082008112008-1111-1-177,913-0.62-3.564,510-10.57-48.75
12-082008122008-129-2-207,9490.45-2.174,496-0.31-45.89
01-092009012009-0190-208,3294.781.784,475-0.47-43.52
02-092009022009-02101-178,4851.872.714,4770.04-44.03
03-092009032009-03100-168,6481.925.444,92610.03-41.64
04-092009042009-04111-168,9733.769.495,72416.2-35.53
05-092009052009-05121-109,2673.2812.946,58615.06-26.08
06-092009062009-06175-39,3300.6817.036,496-1.37-20.59
07-092009072009-0718129,4781.5920.636,8355.22-4.11
-
--- ( ) :
-
--- ()1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF :
-
--- 9/1
9/10 7,507
8,000
6,900~7,000 7,000 8,000 6,100 8,000 :TMBA
-
1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF --- :
-
--- 1. 2. K203.MACD DIFMACD DEF :
-
2007/9/18 2008~20092009~201020002001200220032004200520066.2 5%GDP 1%2%0% :()
-
:()WMA