2009 cotton crop review

Beltwide Prod. Conf.1/6/2010

2009 Cotton Crop Review

Dr. Chris MainExtension Cotton Specialist, University of Tennessee

J.C. Banks, T. Barber, R. Boman, D. Boquet, C. Burmester, G. Collins, D. Dodds, S. Duncan, K. Edmisten, R. Hutmacher, M. Jones, D. Monks, G. Morgan, R. Norton, G. Stevens, J. Whitaker, D. Wright


U.S. Cotton Production

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20094000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Planted Acres Harvested Acres

Acre

s x 1

000 -35%


U.S. Cotton Acres

Reduced >15%Reduced 1-14%

Increased >15%

No ChangeIncreased 1-14%

Change from 2008 - 2009



20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

400

500

600

700

800

900

626

694652

723

843 825 806864

803774

US Yield Average

Lbs/

ac



20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

Bale Production

Num

ber


Outline

Region by RegionStatisticsGeneral observationsQuotes


Southeast65,000 acres

900 lb/ac

1,000,000 acres907 lb/ac

115,000 acres842 lb/ac





Pigweed still a problem

Late planting and poor harvest conditions renders top crop unharvestable in some areas

K deficiency and leaf-spot

Georgia


Varieties for 2010?

Cotton Varieties Planted USDA-AMS

Top 6 varieties planted in Georgia during 2008 and 20092008 - 940,000 acres 2009 - 980,000 acres

Variety % acres Variety % acres

DP555BR 85.85 DP555BR 82.53

DP515BR 1.48 PHY370WR 2.74

PHY480WR 1.37 DP0935B2RF 2.61

DP444BG 1.25 DP0949B2RF 2.14

PHY370WR 1.18 ST5458B2RF 1.07

DP434R 1.02 PHY485WRF 0.68


Alabama

“It rained a lot here, then it didn't, then it rained a lot. Oh yeah, it's still raining.”• Dale Monks


Florida

“We had 85,000 acres and that is expected to go up this coming year with higher prices. However, we are going to have to get out this years (2009) crop first.”• David Wright


Mid-South







Mid-South

Wet spring, late planted, reduced acresCooler and wetter than average summer• Reduced heat unit accumulationExtraordinary crop potential in SeptemberRain, rain go away…. (9/12-11/04)Earliness penalty, boll rot and hard lockLate planting penalty, immature bolls • Tom Barber, Gene Stevens, Darrin Dodds,


May 22, 2009


Arkansas Production (USDA Report)

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Cotton (1000 bales)


Louisiana

Better than average crop in SeptemberEst. 1000 lb/ac, actual 700 lb/ac$81,000,000 in losses (wet harvest), underestimated230,000 ac is 23% of high in mid- 1990’sOnly 30 gins open in 2009• Don Boquet


Southwest

31,400acres936 lb/ac

5,000,000 acres650 lb/ac




Oklahoma

“Strong summer, but a weak finish”• J.C. Banks

• Planted late (dry winter)• Timely summer rains, lacked rain during

August in Southern areas• Immature bolls from cooler wetter fall (dry

land and irrigated)• Reduced fiber quality from weather


Texas (Plains)

Similar to Oklahoma“Cool September and early freezes in some areas have mic values declining and bark contamination trending up.”• Randy Boman


Dryland – PlainsGenerally Spotty Light Rains Across Most Dryland Areas


Center Pivot Irrigation - Plains


“Not bad for cotton that should not be here.”- R. Boman


Texas (South)

lack of precipitation for establishment and throughout the growing season;volunteer cotton management in the corn/cotton or sorghum/cotton rotations;harvest challenges due to prolonged wet weather at harvest time. • Gaylon Morgan


May 15, 2009

http://drought.unl.edu/DM/MONITOR.html

U.S. Drought Monitor


Texas Districts


TEXAS UPLAND COTTON DISTRICT ESTIMATES, 2008 AND 2009 1/

DistrictsPlanted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Per Acre Production2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 20091,000 acres 1,000 acres Pounds 1,000 bales

N. High Pl. 616.4 595.0 554.2 505.0 864.0 998.0 997.3 1,050.0S. High Pl. 2,648.5 2,685.0 1,350.1 2,025.0 683.0 676.0 1,920.6 2,850.0

N. Low Pl. 348.5 325.0 247.8 280.0 526.0 531.0 271.7 310.0S. Low Pl. 473.8 505.0 416.6 450.0 464.0 373.0 402.9 350.0Blacklands 89.7 60.0 89.1 59.0 491.0 488.0 91.1 60.0E. Plateau 178.4 175.0 122.0 160.0 605.0 405.0 153.8 135.0S. Central 61.8 50.0 52.7 30.0 640.0 480.0 70.3 30.0Coastal Bend 276.3 340.0 221.3 20.0 563.0 480.0 259.4 20.0

Upper Coast 119.4 90.0 117.5 85.0 696.0 452.0 170.3 80.0Lower Valley 97.8 75.0 21.4 30.0 413.0 640.0 18.4 40.0Other districts 89.4 100.0 57.3 56.0 789.0 643.0 94.2 75.0

STATE 5,000.0 5,000.0 3,250.0 3,700.0 657.0 649.0 4,450.0 5,000.0

1/ Preliminary, December, 2009.


Western


140,000 acres1450 lb/ac

PIMA130,000 acres

1247 lb/ac


Arizona

Intermittent weather patterns. Excellent planting conditions for majority of cropCooler than average June. Higher incidence of verticillium wilt particularly in the low desertHeat returned with a vengeance (July and August) much warmer and drier than averageHigher than average yields and good quality


Arizona

Nearing end of Pink Bollworm Eradication Program. Upland Cotton >95% Bt Cotton (>70% Bollgard II)Forage and dairy industry experiencing large reduction in forage crop plantings and intentions for 2010Likely to shift back to cotton for 2010. As much as 25% increase in cotton acreage for 2010• Randy Norton


California

Water issues continueBoth Pima (-19%) and upland (-40%) acres declined 2009Increase in acres expected 2010• Lower processing tomato prices• More Pima acreage due to RRFlex offering


2009 Cotton Marketce

nts/

lb

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

"A" Index Price


2010 Expectations

Optimism for increased acres • Strengthening cotton prices• Increasing world demand• World production lower in 2009Lower competing commodity prices• Corn, soybean and wheat • Forages in Arizona• Tomatoes in California

2009 cotton crop review

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