Transition of built environment:challenge for the next decades

Houten, 17 februari 2011

Prof. Jan Rotma

Twitter.com/Jan_Rotmans

Built Environment

built environment responsible for 41% of our energy use

50-80% CO2-reduction is required the coming decades

requires a transition of the built environment

Transition

fundamental change of structure, culture, practices

structure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructureculture: collective set of values, paradigmspractices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling

fundamental shift in thinking & acting at the systems level

means to achieve a sustainable society

we build adequately, but

we don’t build adequate things

Current regime in construction sector structure

fragmented, traditional chain

supply driven, little diversity

culture

mono-culture, conservative

low innovative capability

practice

‘hit and run’, short-term return on investments

traditional tendering

Transition of Construction sector

transition of construction sector is necessary

from to

supply demand

product service

economic societal

20 years

Further development phasePredevelopment phase

20 years

In which phase is the transition of construction?

”

Widespread application

of the new paradigm

Tipp

ing

poin

tBattle between the old and new paradigm

Regieraad Bouw PSIBouw

Time

bui

ldin

g up

a s

usta

inab

le c

onst

ruct

ion

sect

or

Sector is here

Consolidation

Current status of construction sector

sector is innovating and reorientating

much innovation at the project level

still innovation lags compared with other sectors

innovation on too small scale with few parties

Transition = Power shift

regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests

niche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at smaller scale level

niches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that might

take over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defend

its existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime

transition = regime-shift = power shift

Sustainability creeps into the genes

(DNA) of the built environment

and will become the driving forces

Visionary Challenge for Sector

build as service to society (societal demand driven)

orientation towards spatial environment instead of building

allowing end-user to collect or make his own product

sustainable in terms of energy and materials use

flexible, conceptual building is the standard

Built Environment in 2030

energy producing

blue

green

healthy

organic

using roofs and front walls

Stichting Urgenda

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

drijvende wijk/stad

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Floating City

water recreation

ecology:wetlands

technology: floating foundation

energy: decentral heat/cold storage

mobility: floating highway, water taxi

living / working units

Transition Plan

built environment energy neutral in 2025

all existing houses, buildings and schools energy neutral

inspiration

transition from coal to gas from 1955 to 1965

entire Dutch housing stock was provided with

gas connection for heating and cooking

Built Environment

energy neutral through:

1. shell of building as energy efficient as possiblegood isolation and and efficient installations

2. producing sustainable energysolar-PV, solar water heaters, wind, heat

3. surface area developmentenergy, water, fine dust particles / NOx

Costs / Benefits

total costs till 2025

140 billion Euro [73 billion energy savings][67 billion sustainable energy]

total benefits till 2025

pay back time, avoided CO2-emissions employment (50.000 jobs per year) increase in value of real estate

> 140 billion

Costs / Benefits

• investment for home owner: 20.000 Europayback time is 10 years 6 years with WOZ-value red.

• investment for housing corporations: 15.000 Europayback time is 12 years < 10 jaar bij WOZ- korting

• owners of buildings:payback time is 10 years 6 years with government supp.

• energy companies:payback time is 10 years at 3000 Euro per MW wind energy

Sustainable = Value Creation

making housing stock sustainable is beneficial to:

- economy [employment]

- construction sector

- value of real estate

- environment

- society

- citizens and housing corporations

Thus…..

technically it is possible in 15 years

financially it is feasible

societally it is beneficial

how can we get this organized?

Transition Approach: district by district

• start with districts in frontrunner municipalities

• mobilising key parties: municipalities, corporations, energy companies, investors

• three tracks: energy savings, sustainable energy, surfacedevelopment

• in every frontrunner municipality coalition with investor

• smart strategy of seducing, rewarding, punishing

bottom-up & top-down

making built environment sustainable requires a transition

transition requires change in structure, culture and practices

the Netherlands needs a mega-project to drive this transition

making the built environment energy neutral by 2025

technically possible, economically profitable, financially feasible

requires smart transition strategy with facilitating leadership

Conclusions