2013 limited input

7/30/2019 2013 Limited Input

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Lim it ed Resource Farming
http://agrilifecdn.tamu.edu/communications/files/2012/08/TAMAgEXT.png


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Overview

Declining Resources

Crop Profitability

Extension Tools


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ChangingTimes


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Source: NPGCD Hydrology and Groundwater Resource 2011-2012 Publication


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Source: NPGCD Hydrology and Groundwater Resource 2011-2012 Publication


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Source: NPGCD Hydrology and Groundwater Resource

2011-2012 Publication

Active Large

Production Wells

in the District

and Wells Added

Since 2006


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Irrigated Crop

Profitability


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Estimated Costs and Returns for2013 Primary Irrigated Crops in Texas High Plains

CornCorn

Silage Cotton SorghumSorghum

Silage Wheat

Production/Ac 225 bu 27 tons 1100 lbs 75 cwt 21 tons 65 bu

Price $6.50 $60$0.68 /

250 $10.60 $54 $8.70

GrazingIncome - - - $102.00

Gross Returns $1462.50 $1620.00 $955.50 $795.00 $1134.00 $667.50

Ac-In Applied* 22 20 12 14 13 15

Variable Costs $705.09 $831.72 $644.08 $405.25 $514.98 $394.26

Returns AboveVC $757.40 $788.27 $311.41 $389.74 $619.01 $273.23

*Ac-In Priced at $4.40/mcf assuming 1 mcf = 1 ac-in


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Estimated 2013 Corn returns over variable cost for various yields & prices

Yield: 170 200 225 240 260

Price$/bu

bushels

Returns over Variable Costs ($)

5.50 251.91 404.91 532.41 620.91 738.916.00 336.91 504.91 644.91 740.91 686.91

6.50 421.91 604.91 757.41 860.91 998.91

7.00 506.91 704.91 869.91 980.91 1128.91

7.50 591.91 804.91 982.41 1100.91 1258.91

Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling ($0.40/bu) and $4.40 natural gas

Estimated 2013 Cotton returns over variable cost or various yields & prices

Yield: 500 800 1100 1400 1700

Price$ / lb

lbs


0.58 -264.39 -34.58 -6.08 221.74 451.55

0.63 -239.39 5.42 48.92 291.74 536.55

0.68 -214.39 45.42 103.92 361.74 621.55

0.73 -189.39 85.42 158.92 431.74 706.55

0.78 -164.39 125.42 213.92 501.74 791.55

Assumes VC in budgets with variable strip ($8.00/cwt), ginning ($2.75/cwt) & $4.40 natural gas


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Estimated 2013 Sorghum returns over variable cost for various yields & prices

Yield: 45 60 75 90 105

Price$/cwt

cwt


9.25 27.20 157.85 288.50 435.35 582.20

9.75 49.70 187.85 326.00 480.35 634.70

10.60 87.95 238.85 389.75 556.85 723.95

11.00 105.95 262.85 419.75 592.85 765.95

11.50 128.45 292.85 457.25 637.85 818.45

Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling (54/cwt) and $4.40 natural gas

Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling (77/bu) and $4.40 natural gas

Estimated 2013 Wheat returns over variable cost for various yieldsand prices

Yield: 45 55 65 75 85

Price$/bu

bushels


7.25 -52.61 12.19 76.99 157.19 237.39

8.00 -18.86 53.44 125.74 213.44 301.14

8.70 12.64 91.94 171.24 265.94 360.64

9.25 37.39 122.19 206.99 307.19 407.39

9.75 59.89 149.69 239.49 344.69 449.89


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Estimated 2013 Corn Silage returns over variable cost for various yields & prices

Yield: 18 22 27 32 38

Price$/bu

tons


45 43.53 194.53 383.28 644.53 958.03

52 169.53 348.53 572.28 868.53 1224.03

60 313.53 524.53 788.28 1124.53 1528.03

68 457.53 700.53 1004.28 1380.53 1832.03

75 583.53 854.53 1193.28 1604.53 2098.03

Estimated 2013 Sorghum Silage returns over variable cost for various yields &prices

Yield: 12 16 21 26 30

Price

$/cwt

tons


40 30.27 161.27 325.02 561.27 750.27

46 102.27 257.27 451.02 717.27 930.27

54 198.27 385.27 619.02 925.27 1170.27

60 270.27 481.27 745.02 1081.27 1350.27

67 354.27 593.27 892.02 1263.27 1560.27Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling ($7.25/ton) and $4.40 natural gas

Assumes VC in budgets with variable harvest/hauling ($7.25/ton) and $4.40 natural gas


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$130$140

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Irrigated Corn Costs of Production 2009-2013

Seed

(per bag)

Fertilizer

(per lb.)

Insecticide(per acre)

Herbicide

(per acre)

Irrigation

Labor

Cash Rent

&Leases


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Making the Decision

Utilize Extension Resources to Aid in DecisionMaking

Drought Spreadsheets, Commodity Budgets,

Market Outlook Reports,http://agecoext.tamu.edu/

Lease Spreadsheets

Limited Input Decision Aid FARM Assistance (Like Us on Facebook)

QuickBooks Premier 2012
http://agecoext.tamu.edu/http://agrilifecdn.tamu.edu/communications/files/2012/08/TAMAgEXT.pnghttp://agecoext.tamu.edu/


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FARM Assistance Benefits

1. Where am I at today?

Comprehensive financial analysis of boththe whole farm operation and individualfarm units

2. How do I compare to other producersin the area?

Database of Base Farm Analysis


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3. Where am I likely going if I dontchange?

Up to 10 year projection period

4. What are the likely impacts of differentalternatives?

FARM Assistance Benefits


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The Real Power of FARM AssistExamining alternatives

Should I take on more land or change my leaseagreement?

Should I liquidate my cow herd or pay elevated grainand hay prices?

Should I look at growing different crops?

Should I have my crop custom harvested or purchaseadditional equipment?

How will the new Farm Bill affect my operation?


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Projected Risk in Net Farm Income

for Base Scenario & Alternative 1Base Scenario

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

2001 2004 2007 2010

$1,000

5% 25% Mean 75% 95%

Alternative 1

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

2001 2004 2007 2010

$1,000

5% 25% Mean 75% 95%


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Thanks!

2013 limited input

Documents