2013 may revision caseload - california

Department of Social Services Estimates Branch

2013 May Revision Caseload

California Department of Social Services Estimates Branch 2013 May Revision

TABLE OF CONTENTS Caseload Projections

Programs Page CalWORKs TOTAL…………….............................................................................................................1 CalWORKs - ALL OTHER FAMILIES....................................................... ...........................................3 CalWORKs - TWO PARENT....................................................... .........................................................5 CalWORKs CHILD CARE - STAGE ONE....................................................... .....................................7 NON-ASSISTANCE CALFRESH....................................................... ..................................................9 SSI/SSP - TOTAL....................................................... .......................................................................11 IHSS....................................................... ...........................................................................................13 CWS - EMERGENCY RESPONSE....................................................... ............................................15 CWS - FAMILY MAINTENANCE....................................................... ................................................17 CWS - FAMILY REUNIFICATION....................................................... ..............................................19 CWS - LONG TERM FOSTER CARE....................................................... ........................................21 FOSTER CARE - TOTAL....................................................... ...........................................................23 AFDC FC - FOSTER FAMILY HOMES....................................................... ......................................25 AFDC FC - FOSTER FAMILY AGENCIES....................................................... .................................27 AFDC FC – GROUP HOMES....................................................... .....................................................29 KINSHIP GUARDIANSHIP ASSISTANCE PAYMENT PROGRAM....................................................31 ADOPTION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM ....................................................... .....................................33 MONTHLY CASELOADS BY PROGRAM ....................................................... .............................35-41

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Caseload Trend Analysis California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKs) –

Total Caseload 2013 May Revision

The CalWORKs total caseload is comprised of all other families and two parent families (see pages 3 and 5). This page describes the combined total of those two components.

Trend Analysis The CalWORKs caseload had experienced four consecutive years of increases before FY 2011-12. The caseload increased by 1.3 percent in FY 2007-08, by 8.4 percent in FY 2008-09, by 9.6 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 6.0 percent in FY 2010-11. Due to reductions and policy changes as well as the gradual recovery of the economy, the caseload began to decrease by 1.8 percent in FY 2011-12. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 562,714 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 2.3 percent from the previous FY, and 562,274 in FY 2013-14, a slight decrease of 0.1 percent. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 562,104, a decrease of 2.4 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 551,480, a decrease of 1.9 percent from FY 2012-13.

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Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection

Fiscal Year (FY)

Actual caseload

Forecast trend caseload Percentage change from November

Estimate 2013 May Revision

Estimate 2012 November

Estimate FY 2011‐12 575,988 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 562,104 562,714 -0.1%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 551,480 562,274 -1.9%BY change from CY ‐ ‐1.9% ‐0.1% ‐

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FY Actual Caseload Percentage

Change From Prior FY

2002-03 482,736 - 2003-04 480,732 -0.4% 2004-05 490,258 2.0% 2005-06 475,984 -2.9% 2006-07 459,781 -3.4% 2007-08 465,951 1.3% 2008-09 504,994 8.4% 2009-10 553,347 9.6% 2010-11 586,659 6.0% 2011-12 575,988 -1.8%

2013 May 2012 November

FY Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

2012-13 562,104 561,912 562,714 563,505 2013-14 551,480 558,750 562,274 572,133

The following table displays the Forecast Trend caseloads and the Final Forecast caseloads. The 2013 May Revision Forecast Trend caseloads for this program are developed using actual caseloads over a 72-month period and adjusted for population growth and economic variables, including unemployment rate and civilian employment. Final Forecast caseload adjusts the Forecast Trend caseloads for legislative and policy changes. The Final Forecast caseloads appear on page 35 of the caseload section of the binder.

CalWORKs Total 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by Fiscal Year (FY) (Actual Data through January 2013)

The following table shows the history of the changes in actual caseload.

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All Other Families (including Safety Net) 2013 May Revision

Trend Analysis The All Other Families component of the CalWORKs caseload is comprised of one-parent and child-only families, including Safety Net families. This component represents 91.0 percent of all CalWORKs cases based on most recent data. The All Other Families caseload experienced four consecutive years of increases before FY 2011-12. The caseload increased by 1.1 percent in FY 2007-08, by 7.4 percent in FY 2008-09, by 8.3 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 5.4 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload decreased by 1.3 percent in FY 2011-12. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 511,616 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 2.1 percent from the previous FY, and 510,927 in FY 2013-14, a slight decrease of 0.1 percent. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 512,282, a decrease of 2.0 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 504,343, a decrease of 1.5 percent from FY 2012-13.

300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000650,000700,000750,000800,000850,000

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Fiscal Year (FY) Actual caseload Forecast trend caseload Percentage change

from November Estimate

2013 May Revision Estimate

2012 November Estimate

FY 2011‐12 522,736 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 512,282 511,616 0.1%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 504,343 510,927 -1.3%BY change from CY ‐ ‐1.5% ‐0.1% ‐

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2002-03 437,552 - 2003-04 440,888 0.8% 2004-05 451,030 2.3% 2005-06 440,667 -2.3% 2006-07 426,850 -3.1% 2007-08 431,618 1.1% 2008-09 463,614 7.4% 2009-10 502,112 8.3% 2010-11 529,379 5.4% 2011-12 522,736 -1.3%


FY Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

2012-13 512,282 512,414 511,616 512,551 2013-14 504,343 511,302 510,927 520,303


CalWORKs All Other Families 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by Fiscal Year (FY) (Actual Data through January 2013)


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Two Parent Families 2013 May Revision

Trend Analysis The Two Parent component makes up approximately 9.0 percent of total CalWORKs cases based on most recent data. The Two Parent Families caseload experienced four consecutive years of increases before FY 2011-12. The caseload increased by 4.3 percent in FY 2007-08, by 20.5 percent in FY 2008-09, by 23.8 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 11.8 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload decreased by 7.0 percent in FY 2011-12. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 51,098 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 4.0 percent from the previous FY, and 51,347 in FY 2013-14, an increase of 0.5 percent. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 49,822, a decrease of 6.4 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 47,137, a decrease of 5.4 percent from FY 2012-13.

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FY 2011‐12 53,253 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 49,822 51,098 -2.5%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 47,137 51,347 -8.2%BY change from CY ‐ ‐5.4% 0.5% ‐

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2002-03 45,184 - 2003-04 39,844 -11.8% 2004-05 39,228 -1.5% 2005-06 35,317 -10.0% 2006-07 32,931 -6.8% 2007-08 34,332 4.3% 2008-09 41,380 20.5% 2009-10 51,234 23.8% 2010-11 57,280 11.8% 2011-12 53,253 -7.0%


FY Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

2012-13 49,822 49,498 51,098 50,955 2013-14 47,137 47,448 51,347 51,830


CalWORKs Two Parent Families 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by Fiscal Year (FY)

(Actual Data through January 2013


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Caseload Trend Analysis CalWORKs Stage One Child Care Program

2013 May Revision

Trend Analysis The CalWORKs Stage One Child Care caseload increased by 8.5 percent in FY 2007-08 and by 2.5 percent in FY 2008-09. However, due to budget and policy changes the actual caseload decreased by 15.3 percent in FY 2009-10, 13.8 percent in FY 2010-11 and 13.7 percent in FY 2011-12. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 would be 42,285, which reflected the funding provided to the counties for child care, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 would be 37,825, the same as the actual average monthly caseload in FY 2011-12. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 35,684, a decrease of 5.7 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 36,126, an increase of 1.2 percent from FY 2012-13. The caseload impact due to the ending of the short term exemptions will be reflected as adjustments to the final caseload in the budget estimates.

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CHILDREN






FY 2011‐12 37,825 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 35,684 42,285 -15.6%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 36,126 37,825 -4.5%BY change from CY ‐ 1.2% ‐10.5% ‐

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2002-03 76,474 - 2003-04 67,333 -12.0% 2004-05 60,868 -9.6% 2005-06 57,652 -5.3% 2006-07 53,926 -6.5% 2007-08 58,536 8.5% 2008-09 59,985 2.5% 2009-10 50,829 -15.3% 2010-11 43,829 -13.8% 2011-12 37,825 -13.7%


FY Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

2012-13 35,684 43,232 42,285 43,232 2013-14 36,126 42,941 37,825 45,109

The following table displays the Forecast Trend caseloads and the Final Forecast caseloads. The 2013 May Revision Forecast Trend caseloads for this program are developed using actual caseloads over a 12-month period. The November Forecast Trend caseloads for this program reflect the funding provided to the counties for child care and the average monthly actual caseload of FY 2011-12. Final Forecast caseload adjusts the Forecast Trend caseloads for legislative and policy changes.

CalWORKs Stage One Child Care 2013 May Revision Average Number of Children by Fiscal Year (FY)

(Actual Data through December 2012)


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Caseload Trend Analysis Non-Assistance CalFresh (NACF)

2013 May Revision

Trend Analysis The NACF (formally known as Non-Assistance Food Stamps) caseload began to increase in FY 2000-01 and has continued to increase in each subsequent year. The rate of caseload growth increased significantly in the depth of the recent recession. The caseload increased by 12.1 percent in FY 2007-08, by 24.1 percent in FY 2008-09, by 30.1 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 19.7 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload increase in FY 2011-12 was 16.9 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 1,590,781 in FY 2012-13, an increase of 12.7 percent from the previous FY, and 1,789,257 for FY 2013-14, an increase of 12.5 percent from the previous FY. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 1,575,338, an increase of 11.6 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 1,745,269, an increase of 10.8 percent from FY 2012-13.

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HOUSEHOLDS






FY 2011‐12 1,411,806 - - ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) - 1,575,338 1,590,781 -1.0%FY 2013‐14 (BY) - 1,745,269 1,789,257 -2.5%

BY change from CY ‐ 10.8% 12.5% ‐

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2002-03 338,286 - 2003-04 400,016 18.2% 2004-05 474,805 18.7% 2005-06 519,712 9.5% 2006-07 557,863 7.3% 2007-08 625,417 12.1% 2008-09 776,078 24.1% 2009-10 1,009,316 30.1% 2010-11 1,207,837 19.7% 2011-12 1,411,806 16.9%


FY Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

Trend Caseload

Final Forecast

2012-13 1,575,338 1,577,725 1,590,781 1,603,911 2013-14 1,745,269 1,786,874 1,789,257 1,829,310

The following table displays the Forecast Trend caseloads and the Final Forecast caseloads. The 2013 May Revision Forecast Trend caseloads for this program are developed using actual caseloads over a 12-month period. Final Forecast caseload adjusts the Forecast Trend caseloads for legislative and policy changes. The Final Forecast caseloads appear on page 36 of the caseload section of the binder.

NACF 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by Fiscal Year (FY) (Actual Data through December 2012)


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Caseload Trend Analysis Supplemental Security Income/State Supplementary Payment Program

(SSI/SSP) - Total 2013 May Revision

The total SSI/SSP caseload is comprised of recipients who are aged, blind and disabled with Medi-Cal eligibility categorical codes.

Trend Analysis The total SSI/SSP caseload experienced steady growth increases with the exceptions of budget reduction impacts in FY 2009-10. The caseload increased by 0.8 percent in FY 2007-08, by 2.2 percent in FY 2008-09, decreased by 1.1 percent in FY 2009-10 and returned to an increase of 1.5 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 increased by 0.9 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 1,291,022 in FY 2012-13, an increase of 1.0 percent from the previous FY, and 1,308,026 in FY 2013-14, a 1.3 percent increase from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 1,287,136, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 1,298,697, an increase of 0.9 percent from FY 2012-13.

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1,000,0001,050,0001,100,0001,150,0001,200,0001,250,0001,300,0001,350,000

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SSI/SSP Total Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection

Fiscal Year (FY)

Actual caseload




Estimate FY 2011‐12 1,277,688 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 1,287,136 1,291,022 ‐0.3%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 1,298,697 1,308,026 ‐0.7%BY change from CY ‐ 0.9% 1.3% ‐

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SSI/SSP Total - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY

(Actual Data through February 2013)

The following table shows the history of changes in actual caseload.

FY Actual Caseload

Percentage Change from

Prior FY 2002-03 1,128,289 - 2003-04 1,157,847 2.6% 2004-05 1,185,253 2.4% 2005-06 1,210,619 2.1% 2006-07 1,226,445 1.3% 2007-08 1,235,932 0.8% 2008-09 1,262,685 2.2% 2009-10 1,248,502 -1.1% 2010-11 1,266,652 1.5% 2011-12 1,277,688 0.9%

The following table displays the Forecast Trend caseloads; there are no policy changes that significantly impact the trend caseload. Forecast Trend caseloads for this program are developed using actual caseloads over a 24-month period for the aged recipients, and actual caseloads over a 12-month period for the blind and disabled recipients.

FY 2013 May Trend Forecast

2012 November Trend Forecast

2012-13 1,287,136 1,291,022 2013-14 1,298,697 1,308,026

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Caseload Trend Analysis In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)

2013 May Revision

The IHSS caseload includes recipients who are Medi-Cal eligible and aged, blind or disabled. The actuals and projection lines are 12-month moving averages (MA) for display purposes in the above graph.

Trend Analysis The IHSS caseload experienced increased growth until policy decisions impacted eligibility in FY 2009-10. The caseload increased by 7.8 percent in FY 2007-08, increased by 7.4 percent in FY 2008-09, decreased by 0.2 percent in FY 2009-10 and increased by 0.9 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload remained flat in FY 2011-12. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 447,549 in FY 2012-13, an increase of 3.4 percent from the previous FY, and 459,693 in FY 2013-14, a 2.7 percent increase from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 442,769, an increase of 2.3 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 448,225, an increase of 1.2 percent from FY 2012-13.

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IHSS Actuals MA(12) 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection





FY 2011‐12 432,650 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 442,769 447,549 ‐1.1%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 448,225 459,693 ‐2.5%BY change from CY ‐ 1.2% 2.7% ‐

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IHSS - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY

(Actual Data through January 2013)


FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 292,360 - 2003-04 317,641 8.6% 2004-05 336,443 5.9% 2005-06 352,026 4.6% 2006-07 371,244 5.5% 2007-08 400,156 7.8% 2008-09 429,786 7.4% 2009-10 428,962 -0.2% 2010-11 432,738 0.9% 2011-12 432,650 0.0%

The following table displays the Forecast Trend caseloads; there are no policy changes that significantly impact the trend caseload. Forecast Trend caseloads for this program are developed using actual caseloads over a 15-month period.



2012-13 442,769 447,549 2013-14 448,225 459,693

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Caseload Trend Analysis Child Welfare Services – Emergency Response (ER)

2013 May Revision

The ER services consist of a response system providing in-person response, when required, to reports of child abuse, neglect or exploitation.

Trend Analysis The ER caseload has experienced a steady caseload trend since FY 1999-2000. The caseload increased by 2.8 percent in FY 2007-08, decreased by 4.4 percent in FY 2008-09, decreased by 7.8 percent in FY 2009-10 and increased by 9.1 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 decreased by 3.9 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 39,895 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 0.3 percent from the previous FY, and 39,696 in FY 2013-14, a 0.5 decrease from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 39,828, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 40,233, an increase of 1.0 percent from FY 2012-13.

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ER Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection

Fiscal Year (FY)

Actual caseload




Estimate FY 2011‐12 39,995 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 39,828 39,895 ‐0.2%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 40,233 39,696 1.4%BY change from CY ‐ 1.0% ‐0.5% ‐

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ER - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY

(Actual Data through October 2012)


FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 45,316 - 2003-04 43,401 -4.2% 2004-05 42,916 -1.1% 2005-06 41,789 -2.6% 2006-07 42,108 0.8% 2007-08 43,269 2.8% 2008-09 41,367 -4.4% 2009-10 38,141 -7.8% 2010-11 41,617 9.1% 2011-12 39,995 -3.9%

The following table displays the Forecast Trend caseloads; there are no policy changes that significantly impact the trend caseload. Forecast Trend caseloads for this program are the product of California’s 58 counties individual time series projections.



2012-13 39,828 39,895 2013-14 40,233 39,696

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Caseload Trend Analysis Child Welfare Services – Family Maintenance (FM)

2013 May Revision

The FM is designed to provide time-limited protective services to prevent or remedy neglect, abuse or exploitation for the purpose of preventing separation of children from their families.

Trend Analysis The FM caseload experienced a steep decline due to policy decisions made in FY 2008-09. The caseload increased by 3.0 percent in FY 2007-08, decreased by 8.6 percent in FY 2008-09, decreased by 7.4 percent in FY 2009-10 and increased by 3.4 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 increased by 4.6 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 24,942 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 0.6 percent from the previous FY, and 24,840 in FY 2013-14, a 0.4 percent decrease from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 24,528, a decrease of 2.3 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 24,394, a decrease of 0.5 percent from FY 2012-13.

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FM Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection





FY 2011‐12 25,094 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 24,528 24,942 ‐1.7%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 24,394 24,840 ‐1.8%BY change from CY ‐ ‐0.5% ‐0.4% ‐

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FM - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY



FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 25,348 - 2003-04 24,487 -3.4% 2004-05 24,888 1.6% 2005-06 25,648 3.1% 2006-07 26,605 3.7% 2007-08 27,414 3.0% 2008-09 25,054 -8.6% 2009-10 23,199 -7.4% 2010-11 23,997 3.4% 2011-12 25,094 4.6%




2012-13 24,528 24,942 2013-14 24,394 24,840

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Caseload Trend Analysis Child Welfare Services – Family Reunification (FR)

2013 May Revision

The FR is designed to provide time-limited services while the child is in temporary foster care to prevent or remedy neglect, abuse or exploitation when the child cannot safely remain at home.

Trend Analysis The FR caseload experienced a steep decline due to policy decisions made in FY 2007-08. The caseload decreased by 2.1 percent in FY 2007-08, decreased by 9.8 percent in FY 2008-09, decreased by 3.9 percent in FY 2009-10 and increased by 2.5 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 decreased by 1.0 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 21,323 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 0.5 percent from the previous FY, and 21,129 in FY 2013-14, a 0.9 percent decrease from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 21,566, an increase of 0.6 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 21,896, an increase of 1.5 percent from FY 2012-13.

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

Jan‐99

Jul‐9

9Jan‐00

Jul‐0

0Jan‐01

Jul‐0

1Jan‐02

Jul‐0

2Jan‐03

Jul‐0

3Jan‐04

Jul‐0

4Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

CASES

FR Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection





FY 2011‐12 21,440 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 21,566 21,323 1.1%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 21,896 21,129 3.6%BY change from CY ‐ 1.5% ‐0.9% ‐

- 20 -

FR - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY



FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 24,034 - 2003-04 23,519 -2.1% 2004-05 23,359 -0.7% 2005-06 24,415 4.5% 2006-07 24,890 1.9% 2007-08 24,361 -2.1% 2008-09 21,980 -9.8% 2009-10 21,121 -3.9% 2010-11 21,656 2.5% 2011-12 21,440 -1.0%




2012-13 21,566 21,323 2013-14 21,896 21,129

- 21 -

Caseload Trend Analysis Child Welfare Services – Permanent Placement (PP)

(Long Term Foster Care) 2013 May Revision

The PP is designed to provide an alternative permanent family structure for children who because of abuse, neglect or exploitation cannot safely remain at home and who are unlikely to ever return home.

Trend Analysis The PP caseload has steadily declined due to policy decisions shifting children to permanency since FY 2000-01. The caseload decreased by 6.4 percent in FY 2007-08, by 6.8 percent in FY 2008-09, by 9.9 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 7.6 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 decreased by 6.2 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 34,852 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 3.2 percent from the previous FY, and 33,590 in FY 2013-14, a 3.6 percent decrease from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 33,288, a decrease of 7.6 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 31,454, a decrease of 5.5 percent from FY 2012-13.

27,000

37,000

47,000

57,000

67,000

77,000

87,000

Jan‐99

Jul‐9

9Jan‐00

Jul‐0

0Jan‐01

Jul‐0

1Jan‐02

Jul‐0

2Jan‐03

Jul‐0

3Jan‐04

Jul‐0

4Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

CASES

PP Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection

Fiscal Year (FY)

Actual caseload

Forecast trend caseload Percentage changefrom November



Estimate FY 2011‐12 36,017 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 33,288 34,852 ‐4.5%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 31,454 33,590 ‐6.4%BY change from CY ‐ ‐5.5% ‐3.6% ‐

- 22 -

PP - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY



FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 66,088 - 2003-04 62,294 -5.7% 2004-05 58,853 -5.5% 2005-06 55,701 -5.4% 2006-07 52,876 -5.1% 2007-08 49,472 -6.4% 2008-09 46,112 -6.8% 2009-10 41,533 -9.9% 2010-11 38,379 -7.6% 2011-12 36,017 -6.2%




2012-13 33,288 34,852 2013-14 31,454 33,590

- 23 -

Caseload Trend Analysis Aid to Families with Dependent Children–Foster Care (AFDC-FC) - Total

2013 May Revision

The total AFDC-FC caseload is the sum of three separate caseload forecasts for Foster Family Homes (FFH), Foster Family Agencies (FFA) and Group Homes (GH) (see pages 25, 27 and 29, respectively). These forecasts do not include children placed with a relative receiving a CalWORKs grant benefit.

Trend Analysis The total AFDC-FC caseload has experienced steady declines since FY 2003-04. The caseload decreased by 3.8 percent in FY 2007-08, by 8.3 percent in FY 2008-09, by 10.0 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 10.2 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 decreased by 8.2 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 43,522 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 7.2 percent from the previous FY, and 40,030 in FY 2013-14, a 8.0 percent decrease from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 43,930, a decrease of 6.4 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 41,534, a decrease of 5.5 percent from FY 2012-13.

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

Jul‐0

1

Jan‐02

Jul‐0

2

Jan‐03

Jul‐0

3

Jan‐04

Jul‐0

4

Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5

Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6

Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7

Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8

Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9

Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0

Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1

Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2

Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3

Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

CASES

FC Total Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection





FY 2011‐12 46,911 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 43,930 43,522 0.9%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 41,534 40,030 3.8%BY change from CY ‐ ‐5.5% ‐8.0% ‐

- 24 -

AFDC-FC Total - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY



FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 75,311 - 2003-04 73,569 -2.3% 2004-05 73,070 -0.7% 2005-06 73,081 0.0% 2006-07 71,662 -1.9% 2007-08 68,958 -3.8% 2008-09 63,240 -8.3% 2009-10 56,910 -10.0% 2010-11 51,093 -10.2% 2011-12 46,911 -8.2%

The following table displays the Forecast Trend caseloads; there are no policy changes that significantly impact the trend caseload. Forecast Trend caseloads for this program are developed using the combined caseloads for children placed in FFH, FFA and GH.



2012-13 43,930 43,522 2013-14 41,534 40,030

- 25 -

Caseload Trend Analysis AFDC-FC – Foster Family Homes (FFH)

2013 May Revision

The AFDC-FC FFH caseload represents children residing in a certified license facility or living with a relative. These forecasts do not include children placed with a relative receiving a CalWORKs grant benefit.

Trend Analysis The AFDC-FC FFH caseload has experienced steady declines since FY 2002-03. The caseload decreased by 4.9 percent in FY 2007-08, by 10.2 percent in FY 2008-09, by 12.7 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 10.7 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 decreased by 8.0 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 23,238 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 7.5 percent from the previous FY, and 21,338 in FY 2013-14, a 8.2 percent decrease from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 24,437, a decrease of 2.7 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 23,849, a decrease of 2.4 percent from FY 2012-13.

18,000

23,000

28,000

33,000

38,000

43,000

48,000

Jul‐0

1

Jan‐02

Jul‐0

2

Jan‐03

Jul‐0

3

Jan‐04

Jul‐0

4

Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5

Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6

Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7

Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8

Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9

Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0

Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1

Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2

Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3

Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

CASES

FFH Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection

Fiscal Year (FY)

Actual caseload




Estimate FY 2011‐12 25,114 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 24,437 23,238 5.2%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 23,849 21,338 11.8%BY change from CY ‐ ‐2.4% ‐8.2% ‐

- 26 -

AFDC-FC FFH - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY



FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 45,621 - 2003-04 43,489 -4.7% 2004-05 42,783 -1.6% 2005-06 42,299 -1.1% 2006-07 40,950 -3.2% 2007-08 38,963 -4.9% 2008-09 34,991 -10.2% 2009-10 30,558 -12.7% 2010-11 27,293 -10.7% 2011-12 25,114 -8.0%




2012-13 24,437 23,238 2013-14 23,849 21,338

- 27 -

Caseload Trend Analysis AFDC-FC – Foster Family Agencies (FFA)

2013 May Revision

The AFDC-FC FFA caseload consist of children residing in a certified license facility.

Trend Analysis The AFDC-FC FFA caseload has experienced steady declines since FY 2007-08. The caseload decreased by 1.1 percent in FY 2007-08, by 5.0 percent in FY 2008-09, by 5.0 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 8.3 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 decreased by 9.0 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 13,493 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 8.1 percent from the previous FY, and 12,228 in FY 2013-14, a 9.4 percent decrease from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 13,037, a decrease of 11.2 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 11,761, a decrease of 9.8 percent from FY 2012-13.

10,500

12,500

14,500

16,500

18,500

20,500

Jul‐0

1

Jan‐02

Jul‐0

2

Jan‐03

Jul‐0

3

Jan‐04

Jul‐0

4

Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5

Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6

Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7

Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8

Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9

Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0

Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1

Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2

Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3

Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

CASES

FFA Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection





FY 2011‐12 14,681 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 13,037 13,493 ‐3.4%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 11,761 12,228 ‐3.8%BY change from CY ‐ ‐9.8% ‐9.4% ‐

- 28 -

AFDC-FC FFA - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY



FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 18,425 - 2003-04 18,678 1.4% 2004-05 18,919 1.3% 2005-06 19,341 2.2% 2006-07 19,710 1.9% 2007-08 19,495 -1.1% 2008-09 18,529 -5.0% 2009-10 17,608 -5.0% 2010-11 16,140 -8.3% 2011-12 14,681 -9.0%




2012-13 13,037 13,493 2013-14 11,761 12,228

- 29 -

Caseload Trend Analysis AFDC-FC – Group Homes (GH)

2013 May Revision

The AFDC-FC GH caseload is children residing in a certified license facility.

Trend Analysis The AFDC-FC GH caseload has experienced steady declines since FY 2006-07. The caseload decreased by 4.6 percent in FY 2007-08, by 7.4 percent in FY 2008-09, by 10.0 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 12.4 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 decreased by 7.1 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 6,791 in FY 2012-13, a decrease of 4.6 percent from the previous FY, and 6,464 in FY 2013-14, a 4.8 percent decrease from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 6,456, a decrease of 9.3 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 5,924, a decrease of 8.2 percent from FY 2012-13.

5,200

6,200

7,200

8,200

9,200

10,200

11,200

12,200

Jul‐0

1Jan‐02

Jul‐0

2Jan‐03

Jul‐0

3Jan‐04

Jul‐0

4Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

CASES

GH Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection

Fiscal Year (FY)

Actual caseload




Estimate FY 2011‐12 7,116 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 6,456 6,791 ‐4.9%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 5,924 6,464 ‐8.4%BY change from CY ‐ ‐8.2% ‐4.8% ‐

- 30 -

AFDC-FC GH - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY



FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 11,265 - 2003-04 11,402 1.2% 2004-05 11,367 -0.3% 2005-06 11,441 0.7% 2006-07 11,002 -3.8% 2007-08 10,500 -4.6% 2008-09 9,720 -7.4% 2009-10 8,744 -10.0% 2010-11 7,660 -12.4% 2011-12 7,116 -7.1%




2012-13 6,456 6,791 2013-14 5,924 6,464

- 31 -

Caseload Trend Analysis Kinship Guardianship Assistance Payment Program (Kin-GAP)

2013 May Revision

The Kin-GAP caseload represents children residing with a relative in a long term stable placement.

Trend Analysis The Kin-GAP caseload has experienced a slight downward trend since FY 2005-06. The caseload decreased by 1.8 percent in FY 2007-08, by 0.4 percent in FY 2008-09, by 1.0 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 3.6 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 decreased by 0.9 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 13,311 in FY 2012-13, an increase of 1.0 percent from the previous FY, and 13,451 in FY 2013-14, a 1.0 percent increase from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 13,221, an increase of 0.3 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 13,306, an increase of 0.6 percent from FY 2012-13.

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

Jul‐0

1

Jan‐02

Jul‐0

2

Jan‐03

Jul‐0

3

Jan‐04

Jul‐0

4

Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5

Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6

Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7

Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8

Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9

Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0

Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1

Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2

Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3

Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

CASES

KinGAP Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection

Fiscal Year (FY)

Actual caseload




Estimate FY 2011‐12 13,179 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 13,221 13,311 ‐0.7%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 13,306 13,451 ‐1.1%BY change from CY ‐ 0.6% 1.0% ‐

- 32 -

Kin-GAP - 2013 May Revision

Caseload Average by FY (Actual Data through December 2012)


FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 12,120 - 2003-04 13,586 12.1% 2004-05 14,691 8.1% 2005-06 14,600 -0.6% 2006-07 14,255 -2.4% 2007-08 14,003 -1.8% 2008-09 13,944 -0.4% 2009-10 13,801 -1.0% 2010-11 13,305 -3.6% 2011-12 13,179 -0.9%

The following table displays the Forecast Trend caseloads; there are no policy changes that significantly impact the trend caseload. Forecast Trend caseloads for this program are developed using actual caseloads over an 18-month period.



2012-13 13,221 13,311 2013-14 13,306 13,451

- 33 -

Caseload Trend Analysis Adoption Assistance Program (AAP)

2013 May Revision

The AAP caseload reflects the number of cases when financial support is provided to families adopting a child with special needs.

Trend Analysis The AAP caseload has experienced a steady increased trend since FY 1997-98. The caseload increased by 5.7 percent in FY 2007-08, by 4.7 percent in FY 2008-09, by 3.2 percent in FY 2009-10 and by 1.1 percent in FY 2010-11. The caseload in FY 2011-12 increased by 1.0 percent. Comparison of Trend Forecasts In the 2012 November Estimate, the California Department of Social Services forecasted that the average monthly caseload would be 85,580 in FY 2012-13, an increase of 1.4 percent from the previous FY, and 86,494 in FY 2013-14, a 1.1 percent increase from FY 2012-13. The 2013 May Revision forecasts that the average monthly caseload for FY 2012-13 will be 85,339, an increase of 1.1 percent from the previous FY, and that the caseload for FY 2013-14 will be 86,411, an increase of 1.3 percent from FY 2012-13.

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

75,000

85,000

Jul‐9

7

Jul‐9

8

Jul‐9

9

Jul‐0

0

Jul‐0

1

Jul‐0

2

Jul‐0

3

Jul‐0

4

Jul‐0

5

Jul‐0

6

Jul‐0

7

Jul‐0

8

Jul‐0

9

Jul‐1

0

Jul‐1

1

Jul‐1

2

Jul‐1

3

Jul‐1

4

CASES

AAP Actuals 2012 November Projection 2013 May Projection





FY 2011‐12 84,398 ‐ ‐ ‐FY 2012‐13 (CY) ‐ 85,339 85,580 ‐0.3%FY 2013‐14 (BY) ‐ 86,411 86,494 ‐0.1%BY change from CY ‐ 1.3% 1.1% ‐

- 34 -

AAP - 2013 May Revision Caseload Average by FY



FY Actual Caseload


Prior FY 2002-03 54,074 - 2003-04 59,539 10.1% 2004-05 63,861 7.3% 2005-06 68,399 7.1% 2006-07 72,322 5.7% 2007-08 76,464 5.7% 2008-09 80,056 4.7% 2009-10 82,617 3.2% 2010-11 83,523 1.1% 2011-12 84,398 1.0%




2012-13 85,339 85,580 2013-14 86,411 86,494

STATE OF CALIFORNIA CALWORKS ESTIMATES BRANCHDEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SERVICES FINAL MONTHLY CASELOAD 2013 MAY REVISIONADMINISTRATION DIVISION

MONTHLYDATA CASES PERSONS CASES PERSONS CASES PERSONS CASES CHILDREN

2012-13July 559,037 1,347,665 437,354 1,002,255 50,666 182,043 71,018 163,367August 560,650 1,353,722 438,452 1,006,685 50,834 182,871 71,365 164,166September 557,711 1,346,090 436,414 1,001,973 50,205 180,580 71,092 163,538October 557,308 1,345,690 436,547 1,002,964 49,962 179,863 70,799 162,864November 557,301 1,344,021 436,369 1,001,545 49,533 178,232 71,399 164,244December 561,611 1,352,640 439,590 1,007,767 49,447 177,927 72,573 166,946January 565,175 1,360,002 442,122 1,012,547 49,487 178,225 73,566 169,230February 567,522 1,365,051 444,143 1,017,013 49,365 177,779 74,014 170,260March 567,667 1,364,870 444,607 1,017,907 49,111 176,851 73,950 170,112April 564,196 1,356,604 442,005 1,012,133 48,743 175,513 73,448 168,958May 563,335 1,354,207 441,255 1,010,268 48,539 174,768 73,540 169,170June 561,430 1,349,079 439,687 1,006,526 48,085 173,110 73,659 169,443FY TOTAL 6,742,943 16,239,641 5,278,546 12,099,582 593,975 2,137,762 870,422 2,002,297FY AVERAGE 561,912 1,353,303 439,879 1,008,299 49,498 178,147 72,535 166,858

2013-14July 555,727 1,335,017 434,560 994,652 47,435 170,754 73,732 169,610August 555,888 1,335,581 434,377 994,141 47,646 171,523 73,865 169,917September 554,050 1,330,618 433,117 991,260 47,088 169,488 73,845 169,870October 556,166 1,335,111 434,755 994,745 47,024 169,245 74,388 171,121November 554,258 1,330,213 433,259 991,324 46,632 167,818 74,367 171,072December 561,018 1,347,450 439,274 1,005,852 47,392 170,561 74,352 171,037January 563,655 1,354,605 441,471 1,011,396 47,850 172,214 74,333 170,994February 562,229 1,351,600 440,049 1,008,384 47,868 172,270 74,312 170,946March 562,316 1,351,692 440,239 1,008,828 47,782 171,957 74,295 170,906April 560,764 1,347,939 438,854 1,005,657 47,636 171,424 74,274 170,858May 560,279 1,346,846 438,379 1,004,576 47,645 171,455 74,255 170,815June 558,654 1,342,763 437,043 1,001,518 47,376 170,477 74,235 170,769FY TOTAL 6,705,004 16,109,436 5,245,376 12,012,334 569,375 2,049,186 890,253 2,047,916FY AVERAGE 558,750 1,342,453 437,115 1,001,028 47,448 170,765 74,188 170,660

TOTAL CALWORKS ALL OTHER FAMILIES TWO PARENT FAMILIES SAFETY NET

2012-13 AND 2013-14

-35-

STATE OF CALIFORNIA ESTIMATES BRANCHDEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SERVICES 2013 MAY REVISION

PARTICIPATING HOUSEHOLDS AND PERSONS2012-13 AND 2013-14

MONTHLY TOTAL PACF NACFDATA HOUSEHOLDS PERSONS HOUSEHOLDS PERSONS HOUSEHOLDS PERSONS

2012-13July 1,827,058 4,034,480 303,437 768,018 1,523,621 3,266,462August 1,844,248 4,063,004 314,585 793,168 1,529,662 3,269,836September 1,849,866 4,075,445 313,376 791,181 1,536,490 3,284,264October 1,872,274 4,108,850 313,961 791,296 1,558,312 3,317,554November 1,868,580 4,104,127 313,696 790,388 1,554,884 3,313,739December 1,877,323 4,129,104 312,812 794,877 1,564,511 3,334,228January 1,893,758 4,188,359 314,045 791,916 1,579,713 3,396,443February 1,895,138 4,191,678 314,983 794,213 1,580,155 3,397,465March 1,927,949 4,262,118 314,707 793,450 1,613,242 3,468,668April 1,927,997 4,261,830 313,524 790,410 1,614,473 3,471,419May 1,942,004 4,291,669 312,774 788,450 1,629,230 3,503,219June 1,959,853 4,329,554 311,446 785,035 1,648,406 3,544,519FY TOTAL 22,686,046 50,040,217 3,753,347 9,472,402 18,932,700 40,567,816FY AVERAGE 1,890,504 4,170,018 312,779 789,367 1,577,725 3,380,651

2013-14July 2,010,121 4,452,375 309,065 779,025 1,701,057 3,673,349August 2,027,803 4,490,335 308,864 778,516 1,718,939 3,711,819September 2,043,251 4,523,204 307,851 775,961 1,735,400 3,747,243October 2,060,945 4,561,083 308,654 777,852 1,752,291 3,783,230November 2,065,860 4,571,295 307,601 775,197 1,758,259 3,796,097December 2,090,536 4,625,087 312,361 786,910 1,778,176 3,838,176January 2,109,314 4,665,644 312,819 788,064 1,796,495 3,877,581February 2,108,919 4,664,315 313,344 789,197 1,795,575 3,875,119March 2,147,684 4,747,698 313,493 789,563 1,834,190 3,958,136April 2,150,432 4,753,323 313,480 789,446 1,836,952 3,963,877May 2,168,985 4,793,139 313,233 788,823 1,855,752 4,004,316June 2,191,768 4,841,820 312,363 786,626 1,879,406 4,055,194FY TOTAL 25,175,617 55,689,317 3,733,127 9,405,180 21,442,490 46,284,138FY AVERAGE 2,097,968 4,640,776 311,094 783,765 1,786,874 3,857,011

FEDERAL CALFRESH PROGRAMFINAL MONTHLY

ADMINISTRATION DIVISION

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California Department of Social Services Local Assistance 2013 May Revision

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STATE OF CALIFORNIA ESTIMATES BRANCHDEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SERVICES 2013 MAY REVISIONADMINISTRATION DIVISION

MONTHLY DATA TOTAL AGED BLIND DISABLED CAPI

FY 2012-13July 1,282,248 356,776 19,014 906,458 11,887 August 1,283,890 357,009 18,992 907,889 12,015 September 1,269,814 353,738 18,844 897,232 12,055 October 1,291,134 358,250 19,074 913,810 12,141 November 1,289,525 358,226 19,014 912,285 12,254 December 1,288,110 357,295 18,957 911,858 12,244 January 1,289,755 357,798 18,918 913,039 12,373 February 1,288,233 357,244 18,880 912,109 12,453 March 1,289,680 357,029 18,875 913,776 12,525 April 1,289,984 356,869 18,856 914,259 12,604 May 1,291,157 356,775 18,847 915,535 12,681 June 1,292,106 356,700 18,836 916,570 12,761 FY TOTAL 15,445,636 4,283,709 227,107 10,934,820 147,993 FY AVERAGE 1,287,136 356,976 18,926 911,235 12,333

FY 2013-14July 1,293,122 356,635 18,826 917,661 12,838 August 1,294,144 356,570 18,816 918,758 12,917 September 1,295,175 356,506 18,805 919,864 12,997 October 1,296,171 356,444 18,795 920,932 13,074 November 1,297,201 356,381 18,784 922,036 13,153 December 1,298,198 356,319 18,774 923,105 13,230 January 1,299,228 356,255 18,764 924,209 13,310 February 1,300,258 356,192 18,753 925,313 13,389 March 1,301,188 356,134 18,744 926,310 13,461 April 1,302,219 356,071 18,733 927,415 13,541 May 1,303,215 356,009 18,723 928,483 13,618 June 1,304,246 355,946 18,713 929,587 13,697 FY TOTAL 15,584,365 4,275,462 225,230 11,083,673 159,225 FY AVERAGE 1,298,697 356,289 18,769 923,639 13,269

SSI/SSP AND CAPI PROGRAMSESTIMATED MONTHLY CASELOAD

FISCAL YEAR (FY) 2012-13 AND FY 2013-14

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MONTHLY DATA TOTAL IHSS CASELOAD

TOTAL PCSP/IPO CASELOAD

PCSP/IPO INDIVIDUAL PROVIDER

PCSP/IPO CONTRACT/

WELFARE STAFF

TOTAL RESIDUAL CASELOAD

RESIDUAL INDIVIDUAL PROVIDER

RESIDUAL CONTRACT/

WELFARE STAFF

FY 2012-13July 446,095 440,938 439,746 1,192 5,157 4,563 594August 454,791 449,533 448,318 1,215 5,258 4,652 605September 429,292 424,329 423,182 1,147 4,963 4,391 571October 444,842 439,700 438,511 1,189 5,142 4,550 592November 432,560 427,559 426,403 1,156 5,001 4,425 576December 433,935 428,919 427,759 1,160 5,016 4,439 578January 455,068 449,807 448,591 1,216 5,261 4,655 606February 439,960 434,874 433,698 1,176 5,086 4,500 586March 443,838 438,707 437,521 1,186 5,131 4,540 591April 443,679 438,550 437,364 1,186 5,129 4,538 591May 444,332 439,195 438,008 1,188 5,137 4,545 591June 444,834 439,692 438,503 1,189 5,142 4,550 592FY TOTAL 5,313,226 5,251,804 5,237,604 14,200 61,422 54,349 7,073FY AVERAGE 442,769 437,650 436,467 1,183 5,119 4,529 589

FY 2013-14July 445,353 440,212 439,036 1,176 5,141 4,556 586August 445,882 440,734 439,557 1,177 5,148 4,561 586September 446,412 441,258 440,080 1,179 5,154 4,567 587October 446,925 441,765 440,586 1,180 5,160 4,572 588November 447,456 442,290 441,109 1,181 5,166 4,577 588December 447,969 442,797 441,615 1,183 5,172 4,583 589January 448,499 443,321 442,137 1,184 5,178 4,588 590February 449,029 443,845 442,660 1,185 5,184 4,593 590March 449,508 444,319 443,132 1,187 5,189 4,598 591April 450,038 444,843 443,654 1,188 5,195 4,604 592May 450,551 445,350 444,160 1,189 5,201 4,609 592June 451,082 445,874 444,684 1,191 5,208 4,614 593FY TOTAL 5,378,704 5,316,609 5,302,409 14,200 62,095 55,022 7,073FY AVERAGE 448,225 443,051 441,867 1,183 5,175 4,585 589

IN-HOME SUPPORTIVE SERVICESFINAL MONTHLY CASELOAD BREAKOUT BY PROGRAM

FISCAL YEAR (FY) 2012-13 AND FY 2013-14

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MONTHLY DATA

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

ASSESSMENT

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

FAMILY MAINTENANCE

FAMILY REUNIFICATION

PERMANENT PLACEMENT

2012-13July 15,789 41,216 24,439 21,440 33,676August 17,508 40,835 24,419 21,444 33,390September 16,863 33,715 24,263 21,384 33,179October 22,446 41,417 24,340 21,640 32,917November 17,968 40,045 24,684 21,511 33,925December 18,004 40,059 24,663 21,540 33,744January 18,042 40,073 24,641 21,569 33,558February 18,080 40,088 24,619 21,598 33,371March 18,114 40,100 24,599 21,624 33,202April 18,152 40,114 24,577 21,653 33,015May 18,189 40,128 24,556 21,681 32,834June 18,227 40,142 24,534 21,710 32,647FY TOTAL 217,382 477,932 294,334 258,794 399,458FY AVERAGE 18,115 39,828 24,528 21,566 33,288

2013-14July 18,263 40,156 24,513 21,738 32,467August 18,301 40,170 24,491 21,767 32,280September 18,339 40,185 24,469 21,796 32,093October 18,376 40,198 24,448 21,825 31,912November 18,413 40,212 24,426 21,854 31,725December 18,450 40,226 24,405 21,882 31,544January 18,488 40,240 24,383 21,911 31,358February 18,526 40,255 24,361 21,940 31,171March 18,560 40,267 24,341 21,966 31,002April 18,598 40,282 24,320 21,995 30,815May 18,634 40,295 24,298 22,023 30,634June 18,672 40,309 24,276 22,052 30,447FY TOTAL 221,620 482,795 292,731 262,749 377,448FY AVERAGE 18,468 40,233 24,394 21,896 31,454

CHILD WELFARE SERVICESFINAL MONTHLY CASELOAD

2012-13 AND 2013-14

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TOTAL FOSTER FOSTER FOSTER ADOPTIONMONTHLY CARE FAMILY GROUP FAMILY ASSISTANCE KIN-GAP FED-GAP

DATA PROGRAM HOMES HOMES AGENCIES PROGRAM PROGRAM PROGRAM

2012-13July 44,936 24,510 6,683 13,743 84,500 8,014 5,222August 44,957 24,667 6,665 13,625 85,025 7,943 5,222September 44,067 24,321 6,464 13,282 84,583 7,995 5,222October 44,643 24,820 6,576 13,247 84,518 7,995 5,222November 44,340 24,697 6,600 13,043 85,106 7,867 5,222December 43,731 24,552 6,347 12,832 85,552 7,990 5,222January 43,844 24,429 6,470 12,945 85,658 8,016 5,222February 43,705 24,353 6,426 12,926 85,694 8,023 5,222March 43,542 24,299 6,382 12,861 85,754 8,028 5,222April 43,340 24,248 6,333 12,759 85,824 8,034 5,222May 43,136 24,200 6,286 12,650 85,892 8,040 5,222June 42,921 24,152 6,237 12,532 85,962 8,043 5,225FY TOTAL 527,162 293,248 77,469 156,445 1,024,068 95,988 62,667FY AVERAGE 43,930 24,437 6,456 13,037 85,339 7,999 5,222

2013-14July 42,712 24,106 6,189 12,417 86,030 8,024 5,250August 42,495 24,059 6,140 12,296 86,101 8,027 5,253September 42,278 24,011 6,092 12,175 86,171 8,030 5,255October 42,067 23,965 6,044 12,058 86,239 8,032 5,259November 41,850 23,918 5,995 11,937 86,309 8,036 5,261December 41,640 23,872 5,948 11,820 86,377 8,039 5,265January 41,423 23,825 5,899 11,699 86,447 8,042 5,268February 41,204 23,777 5,850 11,577 86,518 8,045 5,270March 41,009 23,735 5,806 11,468 86,581 8,048 5,273April 40,791 23,687 5,757 11,347 86,651 8,050 5,277May 40,580 23,641 5,710 11,229 86,719 8,053 5,279June 40,363 23,594 5,661 11,108 86,790 8,056 5,282FY TOTAL 498,412 286,190 71,091 141,131 1,036,933 96,482 63,192FY AVERAGE 41,534 23,849 5,924 11,761 86,411 8,040 5,266

FOSTER CARE, ADOPTION ASSISTANCE,KIN-GAP, AND FED-GAP PROGRAMS

FINAL MONTHLY CASELOAD2012-13 AND 2013-14

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2013 may revision caseload - california

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